Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)

Three pollsters chime in with federal voting intention numbers, while a fourth finds state Labor gaining ground in Tasmania.

As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:

• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood&” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.

• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.

• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.

Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Peter Dutton deemed “better placed to engage and negotiate with” a President who will make the world “less safe”.

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review (presently available online in the paper’s subscriber-only digital edition) records no change of consequence on voting intention, with the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor steady on the primary vote at 30%, the Coalition down one to 40% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and up two to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 44-43 to 43-42.

The poll also finds 55% believe the world will be less safe with Donald Trump as President, compared with 28% for safer, and that 47% consider Peter Dutton “better placed to engage and negotiate” with Trump, compared with 36% for Anthony Albanese. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1046.

Black by-election live

Live results and commentary for the South Australian state by-election for Black.

Click here for full display of Black by-election results

8.00pm. All nine booths now in on the primary vote, and we won’t be getting declaration votes counted this evening, so all that remains to come is two outstanding two-candidate preferred results that are already known in outline. Labor has a 13% swing based on election day votes alone, and while it’s been shown that other vote types can behave quite differently, the Liberals would need an entirely implausible swing on both early votes and postals to get back into contention.

7.46pm. Seven out of nine booths now in on the primary vote, the latest both being in Hallett Cove, and both performing well in line with the remainder. They have also boosted the booth-matched turnout calculation that was at 60% in the previous update to 66%.

7.35pm. Antony’s caution seemingly informed by low turnout at the booths: by my reckoning, those that are in have recorded barely more than 60% what they did in 2022.

7.26pm. Antony Green on Twitter not quite willing to call it in the absence of early votes.

7.19pm. Now five booths in on the primary and two on two-party, the new results slightly moderating the projected Labor victory, but leaving the fact of it in doubt following a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.

7.01pm. With the second booth (Sheidow Park) even better for Labor than the first, my system is already calling it for Labor.

6.55pm. A big result for Labor at the first booth in, which is Seacliff South. A note of caution though — I have treated this as being the same as the Marino booth from 2022, which may not exactly be the case. Clearly the same decision has been made at the ABC.

5.30pm. Polls close in half an hour for South Australia’s Black by-election, at which the Liberals are defending a southern Adelaide seat on a margin of 2.7% after the spectacular demise of former party leader David Speirs. This will be my first run of an upgrade in my live results system that allows for multiple two-candidate outcomes in its probability estimates, rather than assuming two set candidates as it had done in the past. It can thus provide a three-way probability split where the situation is sufficiently complicated, although that situation is unable to arise here. More background on the by-elect
ion is available through my by-election guide.

WA miscellany: state polls, federal polls, Labor candidates

Another poll showing Labor headed for a much reduced but still substantial majority in WA, and holding up relatively well there federally.

DemosAU brings us a poll of 948 respondents in Western Australia, conducted from October 30 to November 4, showing voting intention both federally and for a state election that will be held on March 8 unless a federal election clashes with it. On the latter count, the poll credits state Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, suggesting a swing against it of 14% from the extraordinary result of 2021. The primary votes are Labor 41%, Liberal 34%, Nationals 4%, Greens 12% and others 9%, with Roger Cook leading Liberal leader Libby Mettam 42-29 as preferred premier.

The federal component of the poll has Labor leading 52-48, a swing against it of 3% compared with 2022, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 38%, Greens 14%, One Nation 6% and others 8%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 40% to 33%. The linked reports for both polls feature breakdowns by gender, age, education, residential tenure and personal income.

Another federal voting intention poll from the state, by RedBridge Group, shows Labor travelling remarkably well with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5. The poll is related in a report by Katina Curtis of The West Australian, whose Labor sources say the result is consistent with the party’s internal polling.

Further developments relating to the state election:

• Rhys Williams, who has served as the local mayor since 2017, has been confirmed as Labor’s new candidate for Mandurah after David Templeman, the member since 2001, announced his retirement in September. The Liberal Party’s initial nominee for the seat, James Hall, withdrew last month over social media posts from 2017 stating he was “proud to be white”.

• Michelle Roberts has announced she will retire at the election after a parliamentary career going back to 1994, all but the first two years of which have been spent as member for Midland. The West Australian reports her likely successor as Labor candidate is Stephen Catania, a former CFMEU lawyer now with Eureka Lawyers. Catania is the father of Nick Catania and brother of Vince Catania, both former MPs.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 38, Greens 13 in Victoria

John Pesutto pokes his nose in front as preferred premier in another mediocre poll for Victorian Labor.

The Age reports the bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic finds both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 28% and 38% respectively, with the Greens down one to 13%. No two-party result is provided, but I would estimate it at around 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Coalition. John Pesutto takes the lead over Jacinta Allan of 30-29 as preferred premier, reversing the result from last time. The poll combining results from the pollster’s last two monthly national polls, with a combined sample of 1000.

Federal polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Two new polls find improvement in Peter Dutton’s personal ratings, but only minor changes on voting intention.

Two new polls out this evening, one being the first Newspoll result from The Australian in four weeks, showing the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 33% and the Coalition to 40%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down two to 5%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and down one on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-37 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1261.

Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor unchanged on 30%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 11%, One Nation steady on 5%, independent down one to 11% and others up one to 4%. I reckon this to put two-party preferred somewhere between 50-50 and 51-49 to the Coalition, based on preference flows at the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 45% and down one to 40%. The two leaders are tied 37-37 on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 38-35 last time.

The poll also finds 26% rating Donald Trump positively and 55% negatively, compared with 41% and 25% for Kamala Harris, with 40% considering Trump’s election will be bad for Australia compared with 29% for good. A series of findings on foreign policy questions, one being that 27% agreement that Australia should pause or withdraw from the AUKUS nuclear submarines arrangement with 35% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1621.

Queensland election endgame

One last post on the results of the Queensland election, which have been all but finalised with full preference distributions.

Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.

Counting has more-or-less wrapped up for the Queensland election, with a final result of 52 seats for the LNP (up 18 on 2020), 36 for Labor (down 16), three for Katter’s Australian Party (unchanged on 2020, but down one on what they went into the election with), one for the Greens (down one), one independent (unchanged) and nothing for One Nation (down one on 2020, unchanged on what they went into the election with). Apart from a handful of seats where preference distributions are yet to be finalised, my results system, linked to above, has been brought up to speed with all this. This includes my all-but-final estimate of a 53.9-46.1 win for the LNP on statewide two-party preferred. Labor can perhaps take some solace from the fact that this was narrower than the 54.3-45.7 result in its favour in New South Wales last March, which failed to yield a majority there.

Two squeakers were decided in favour of Labor, the closest being Aspley, where incumbent Bart Mellish finished the preference distribution with 17,889 votes to LNP candidate Amanda Cooper’s 17,858, a margin of 31. Labor had to sweat on the distribution to confirm Barbara O’Shea’s win over Greens incumbent Amy MacMahon in South Brisbane, the point at issue being whether O’Shea survived exclusion at the second last count ahead of the LNP. This was accomplished by a margin of 105 votes, or 11,374 to 11,269. MacMahon led with 12,346 votes at this point, but this was immaterial as Labor received 8239 of the preferences flowing from the exclusion of the LNP while the Greens received only 3030.

As an indication of the impact of LNP how-to-vote cards, which had Labor last in 2020 and the Greens last this time, it is instructive to compare this with 2020, when the Greens received 5296 preferences upon the exclusion of the LNP whereas Labor received only 3011: in other words, Labor’s share went from 36.2% to 73.1%. This is only slightly compromised by the fact that not all the votes distributed at this point were LNP first preferences: the LNP had picked up 797 preferences from One Nation on this occasion, and 691 from various sources in 2020.

The ECQ site declares Glen Kelly of the LNP the winner in Mirani, which Stephen Andrew won for One Nation in 2017 and 2020 and contested this election as the candidate of Katter’s Australian Party. Unless I was hallucinating, the ECQ site showed a preference distribution as of early yesterday that showed Andrew had in fact retained the seat by the barest of margins at the final count. However, this has since been removed, and beyond the fact of Kelly’s election, we are told only that “the elected candidate has received a majority of votes” and “the full distribution of preferences will be published upon completion”.

US election late counting

Democrats are still a slight chance to gain control of the House despite a popular vote deficit. Also covered: upcoming Irish and German elections.

12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.

1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.

2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.

4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.

12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.

2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.

4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.

In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.

2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.

In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.

3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.

4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election.  Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris.  Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California.  Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.

You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation.  The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state.  Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia.  Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception).  If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.

Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in.  Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199.  If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212.  However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting.  So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.

If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9.  While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.

Irish election: November 29

Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections.  At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates.  This election was called before it was due in March 2025.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.  After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included.  The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG.  This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.

Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election

After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats.  However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.

German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats.  But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.

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