Essential Research 2PP+: 49-47 to Coalition (open thread)

In a poll conducted on the eve of his US election win, Essential Research finds Donald Trump and his worldview gaining traction in Australia.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor bouncing back three points on the primary vote after a four-point slump last time, to 31%, with the Coalition down a point to 34%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up two to 9%, with the undecided component down a point to 5%. Labor’s improvement does not flow through to the 2PP+ measure, on which the Coalition’s lead shifts from 48-46 to 49-47. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1131.

Further results offer particularly interesting results on the US election, finding a distinctly narrow lead for Kamala Harris of 41% to 33% for Donald Trump when respondents were asked how they would vote if they could. Even more strikingly, respondents were uniformly positive in relation to four of Trump’s key talking points: 60% agreed that “Globalisation has gone too far, we need to protect local workers with tariffs on foreign goods”, with only 11% disagreeing; 59% that “government is fundamentally corrupt and politics has been taken over by vested interests”, with 15% disagreeing; 59% that “a deep state of unelected officials has too much control”, with 10% disagreeing; and 59% agreeing that “illegal immigrants should be deported”, with 19% disagreeing. Conversely, 41% felt abortion should be legal in all cases, 38% in most, 14% illegal in most cases, and only 7% illegal in all cases.

Substantial majorities also rated that politicians should not accept complimentary flight upgrades and access to airline lounges, sporting events and concerts. Essential Research executive director Peter Lewis connects the dots in an analysis piece for The Guardian:

Caught between casting Trump as weird and fascist while he bros out with Joe Rogan, the Democrats have allowed themselves to occupy a lonely centre ground and defend a system that few voters find appealing. It’s easy, entertaining and much more fun to dump on Trump’s foppery than explaining, and then addressing, the power imbalances of US technology, the military industrial complex and the economic model that supports them.

Regardless of the US result, what does all this mean for Albanese’s Labor? Winning power at a time when people have lost faith in government is a poisoned chalice; in your success you become the problem. This is why the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge allegations against the prime minister have had such salience; the idea that those in control have special access and special privileges feeds this populist backlash.

US presidential election live

Kamala Harris gains in final forecasts. Live coverage of the US presidential and congressional election results from Wednesday morning AEDT.

Live Commentary

9:48am Thursday Trump is very likely to win the last two uncalled states in Arizona and Nevada, for a 312-226 Electoral College victory. That would give him all his 2016 states plus Nevada. In the national popular vote, Trump leads currently by 50.9-47.4. The NYT needle gave him a 1.5% popular vote margin in its forecast.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-44 lead over Democrats with four races undecided. An independent who caucuses with Dems will win Maine, Reps lead narrowly in Pennsylvania and Nevada with some votes outstanding, and Dems lead narrowly in Arizona with many votes outstanding.

In the House, Reps lead Dems by 204-186 with 45 uncalled. A majority is achieved with 218 seats, so Reps are well ahead.

9:46pm In the House, Republicans currently lead by 196 to 176 with 218 needed for a majority. Many undecided seats are in California and other states with mail to count.

9:37pm CNN has called a Trump win in Wisconsin, where he leads by 49.8-48.8 with 99% counted. This puts him over the 270 electoral votes needed; he now has 276. However, that last count from Wisconsin has put the Dem ahead in the Senate, and the Dem will win that seat.

6:20pm Here’s my article for The Conversation on today’s results. The polls understated Trump again, and he performed particularly well in racially diverse states compared to 2020.

4:34pm The NY Times says Florida, New Jersey and New York, which all have diverse racial populations, are likely to shift 9-10 points more Republican compared with 2020.

4:22pm The NY Times has called a Republican win in the Senate, with a 51-42 current lead over Democrats. Republicans are currently leading in another four states that haven’t been called. This may get very ugly for Democrats.

2:55pm The NY Times needle now gives Trump an 87% chance of winning, and has him winning in all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It’s also looking grim for Democrats in both the Senate and House.

1:51pm The NY Times needle overall now gives Trump a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Trump at a 56% chance to win Pennsylvania. Once again, the US polls appear to have understated Trump. The national popular vote prediction is Harris by 0.3 points.

1:18pm Trump now has a 76% win prob according to the NY Times Needle in both Georgia and NC. Harris will need to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn, all states in which her win prob is currently about 50-50.

1:04pm Texas has been called for Trump and he now leads Harris by 154 electoral votes to 27. It’s not a good sign for Harris that Illinois and New York haven’t been called for her as soon as polls closed.

12:57pm In CNN’s map, Trump has won 105 electoral votes to 27 for Harris. The NY Times Needle gives Trump a 72% chance in Georgia and a 62% chance in N Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 52% chance. Harris’ margins are likely to be reduced from Biden 2020 in Virginia and New Hampshire.

12:31pm The NY Times Needle is working. It gives Trump a 71% chance to win Georgia, 57% in North Carolina and 52% in Pennsylvania.

12:27pm With 50% reporting in Georgia, Trump leads by 55-44. It’s difficult to see Harris pulling back that lead.

12:05pm With all polls now closed in Florida, Trump is called the winner. He now leads Harris by 90 electoral votes to 27, with 270 needed to win.

11:58am In completed Georgian counties so far, there’s a small shift to Trump. Harris will need good numbers in more urhan regions.

11:47am NY Times says Trump getting swings in his favour in completed counties so far in Kentucky and Indiana. But these are rural counties.

11:40am A suburban Indiana county has Trump’s margin down from 18% since 2020 to 10% with 91% reporting.

11:35am Harry Enten on CNN says Harris is running about 0.5 points behind Biden in mostly completed counties so far.

11:33am Trump has a small lead in Virginia with 2% in. Rural counties tend to report faster in that state.

11:22am With 53% counted in Florida, Trump leads by 53.8-45.3. Trump wins Miami Dade county (a strongly Hispanic county in south Florida) by 55-44 with 70% in.

11:10am Kentucky has been called for Trump and Vermont for Harris. With 18% already in in Florida, Trump leads by 52-47.

10:16am The first results are in from Kentucky and Indiana, and Trump has big leads as expected in those states. These states are split across time zones, and won’t be called until 11am. CNN has the results.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first polls for the US presidential election close at 10am AEDT today, with polls in the key states closing from 11am. See Monday’s guide in The Conversation for more information on poll closing times and whether initial results in a state will favour Kamala Harris or Donald Trump relative to the final results.

In Nate Silver’s final aggregate of national polls, Harris has a 48.6-47.6 lead over Trump (48.5-47.8 in my Conversation article on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9. In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote.

Trump “leads” by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes),. With a 0.6-point lead in Nevada (six), one-point leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and a 2.4-point lead in Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 287-251. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College by a narrow 270-268. Harris leads by one point in Wisconsin (ten) and Michigan (15).

There’s been a little late surge to Harris in win probabilities. Silver’s model gives Harris a 50% chance to win (Trump had a 53% win probability on Monday), while FiveThirtyEight also gives her a 50% chance. It’s a coin flip election, and if the polls are not completely accurate, one candidate could win decisively.

Harris needs at least a two-point win in the national popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model. Silver’s model is forecasting Harris wins the popular vote by 2.1 points (it aggregates state polls for this result instead of relying on national polls). There’s a 27% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

Congressional elections will also be held concurrently. All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years; its 435 single-member seats are distributed on a population basis. Republicans won a 222-213 House majority at the 2022 midterm elections. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.3-45.6 lead over Republicans, a drop for Republicans from a 46.2-46.1 Democratic lead last Thursday.

There are two senators for each of the 50 states, and senators have six-year terms with one-third up every two years. Democrats and allied independents have a 51-49 Senate majority, but are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including three in states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.

Republicans are certain to gain West Virginia and very likely to gain Montana, where they have a seven-point lead in FiveThirtyEight averages. In Ohio, a late swing to Republicans has them 0.7 points ahead after Democrats led by 1.6 points last Thursday. Republicans have a two-point lead against an independent in Nebraska, while Democrats have a two-point lead in Wisconsin. In all other states, the incumbent party is at least three points ahead. If the polls are correct, Republicans will gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio and take a 52-48 Senate majority.

Since last Thursday, Democrats have gained in the FiveThirtyEight House forecast, but Republicans in the Senate. Democrats have a 51% chance to gain control of the House, up from 47% Thursday. But Republicans have a 92% chance to gain control of the Senate, up from 89%.

Miscellany: Morgan, Guardian poll tracker, preselection latest (open thread)

Another week, another Morgan poll. Plus sundry preselection news, new federal boundaries for the Northern Territory, and an unorthodox new aggregated polling result.

Newspoll did not grace us with its usual three-weekly presence on Sunday evening, but the weekly Roy Morgan can always be relied upon – as presumably can the fortnightly Essential Research, which should be reported tomorrow and previewed by the time most of you read this in The Guardian. Roy Morgan finds the Coalition opening up a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after trailing 50.5-49.5 last time. However, this is down to changes in the respondent-allocated preference flow rather than the primary vote, on which both Labor and the Coalition are up half a point, to 30.5% and 38% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14% and One Nation up half a point to 6%. The alternative two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor leading 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1651.

The Guardian has also launched a federal poll aggregate, devised by the publication’s data journalists Josh Nicholas and Nick Evershed together with Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney, based on a model developed by the latter together with political science doyen Simon Jackman. Strikingly, it credits the Coalition witha two-party lead of 51.4-48.6, based on polling data up to and including last week’s Roy Morgan result. That the Labor primary vote of 27.5% is half a point lower than any poll published during the past term presumably reflects the fact that Labor significantly underperformed the polls at both the 2019 and 2022 elections. However, recent state elections have offered no further evidence for bias on such a scale.

On this point, a comparison of performance at the Queensland election by Resolve Strategic, presumably intended to blow the pollster’s own trumpet, demonstrates that the industry did rather well across the board. The national figures from The Guardian aggregate are also worse for Labor than the accompanying state breakdowns, although the latter only track as far as September.

Further:

• Proposed new federal boundaries for the Northern Territory were published in October 18. These predictably dealt with the need for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon to gain voters, and Lingiari to lose them, by transferring the outer suburbs of Palmerston, inclusive of Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli, to Solomon. Antony Green calculates that this increases Labor’s margin in Lingiari from 0.9% to 1.7% and reduces it in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4%.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brian Mitchell, who maintains Labor’s increasingly tenuous grip on the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons, is “being strongly urged by federal figures” to make way for former state party leader Rebecca White, who has been a member for the corresponding state electorate since 2010. It is further reported that Mitchell would be willingly to go quietly, and that White is “understood to be willing to switch”, but “does not want a preselection stoush”.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian also reports Anthony Albanese “blindsided” the Tasmanian branch of the ALP by announcing that Richard Dowling, adviser to state Labor leader Dean Winter and former director of public policy with Meta, would succeed Catryna Bilyk at the top end of the party’s Senate ticket at the next election. The report quotes Bilyk saying she had not said she was retiring as of yet, and that state MP Shane Broad and former Forestry Australia president Bob Gordon had been floated as potential successors if she did. However, Dowling was “assured the position as the choice of the Right faction’s Australian Workers Union”, a fact which was “not widely known within the party” until Albanese made it so.

Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports a Liberal preselection vote for the Hunter region seat of Paterson, held for Labor by Meryl Swanson on what I calculate to be a post-redistribution margin of 2.5%, was won by Laurence Antcliff, operations manager at the Housing Industry Association. Antcliff reportedly won a preselection vote by 24 to 16 ahead of local doctor Owen Boyd.

• The above report further notes that Lucy Wicks, who lost the Central Coast seat of Robertson to Labor in 2022, is considered the front-runner in a preselection ballot for the seat to be held on November 16. She is opposed by Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has run for the party five times in various seats, most recently in Dobell in 2022, and Bernadette Enright, a banking executive.

• David Gillespie, who has held the New South Wales Mid North Coast seat of Lyne for the Nationals since 2013, announced a fortnight ago that he will not recontest the next election.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly appeal for donations. This one follows a month of prodigious efforts on the Queensland election, which so far at least have not attracted anything out of the ordinary on the revenue front. The election results system that eventually started working about 45 minutes into the count continues to tick over, and I’m hard at work on a more elaborate three-candidate preferred model that will make sense of the increasingly common circumstance in which the two leading candidates cannot be confidently predicted in advance. A case in point is the current situation in South Brisbane, where the Greens’ slim hopes of holding on depend on who finishes second out of Labor and the LNP. Hopefully the new system will be ready to go for a looming by-election in South Australia, and then for the big events that loom in the new year – Western Australia’s state election in March, followed by a federal election that I hope and expect will be held in May.

US presidential election minus seven days

Donald Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College, according to forecast models. Also covered: three Canadian provincial elections and electoral events in Japan, Moldova and Georgia.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.

I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.

Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.

Canadian provincial elections

From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.

At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).

The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.

At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).

At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.

Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.

LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan

Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.

At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power.  The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.

Moldova and Georgia

A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.

Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.

Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Queensland election: late counting

The late mail on the Queensland state election, at which the precise size of a modest LNP majority remains at issue.

Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.

Friday evening

Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.

The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.

That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.

Thursday evening

Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.

Wednesday evening

What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.

Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.

The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.

Tuesday evening

Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.

My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.

In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.

Sunday evening

Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.

That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:

Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.

Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.

Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.

Saturday evening

After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.

Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.

It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.

This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.

Queensland election live

Live coverage of the Queensland election results.

Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.

11:47pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation that was based on figures about 35 minutes ago.  The LNP is now up to a 53-35 seat lead over Labor and is winning the 2PP by 53.8-46.2.  This election wasn’t close.

10:04pm With 34% statewide counted, the LNP has won or is leading in 50seats, Labor in 38, the Katters in three, Greens in one and an independent in one.  The PB’s 2PP estimate is 52.7-47.3 to the LNP.  It’s clear now that the LNP will win the election, as the swing to it rises on pre-poll and postal votes.

9:52pm In Maiwar, the Greens will need Labor preferences to beat the LNP, and once again pre-poll votes are better for the LNP in swing terms than election day votes.

9:43pm With 30% counted statewide, the PB has the LNP leading by 47 seats to 41, just enough for an LNP majority. The KAP has three, the Greens one and an independent one. The PB now has a 2PP estimate, which is 52.5-47.5 to the LNP. The ABC is at 51.9-48.1 to LNP.

9:38pm In Macalister, both postals and pre-polls counted so far suggest a stronger swing to the LNP than from election day votes.

9:30pm In Everton, however, the pre-poll booths are better for the LNP in swing terms than the election day booths in that seat.

9:21pm In Cook, the first pre-poll booth is better for Labor in swing terms than the election day booths counted so far in that seat.

9:14pm The ABC has fixed its results issue. With 25.3% counted statewide, the LNP leads the ABC’s 2PP estimate by 51.7-48.3. There are still no results from Hervey Bay.

9:06pm Actually something’s gone wrong with the ABC’s results, as they’ve now retreated to 19.5% counted, while PB is up to 23% counted.

9:02pm With 20.4% counted, the ABC has the LNP leading the 2PP by 51.7-48.3. The PB has the LNP ahead in 45 seats to 42 for Labor with three Katters, one Green and one independent.

8:47pm William has posted The Poll Bludger results. With 19% counted, the LNP is leading or has won 46 seats, Labor 41, Katter three, the Greens one and independents one. There’s no two-party estimate on these results available yet.

8:32pm It looks as if Labor will regain Ipswich West, which they lost at a by-election early this year. Labor leads by 55-45 with 21% counted.

8:27pm With 14% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP. The seats won are currently tied at 32 each between Labor and the LNP, with two for Katter. Remember these are election day votes, and pre-poll and postals are likely to be better for the LNP.

8:10pm With 8.5% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.6-48.4 to LNP, with the LNP on 26 seats, Labor on 18, Katter two and independents one. There are 93 total seats, and it will take 47 to win a majority.

7:57pm With 3% counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP, with the LNP so far winning 11 seats to 3 for Labor.

7:51pm With 2% counted, the ABC’s two-party estimate is 52.0-48.0 to the LNP. These votes would be election day votes, and pre-poll and postals will likely be better for the LNP.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

William Bowe is working for Channel 9, so I’ll be giving live commentary on the Queensland results. Polls close at 7pm AEDT (6pm in Queensland). William will hopefully add a live results link to the top of this post. I will need to do an article for The Conversation tonight.

There were two late polls: a Newspoll reported in the previous post gave the LNP a 52.5-47.5 lead, from primary votes of 42% LNP, 33% Labor, 11% Greens, 8% One Nation and 6% for all Others.

The ABC reported that a uComms poll conducted Thursday from a sample of 3,651 using robopolling, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead. Kevin Bonham has primary votes from this poll, which was not commissioned by anyone. The primary votes are 39.3% LNP, 33.6% Labor, 12.9% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.9% KAP and 3.5% others.

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