US mid-term elections live

In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are strong favourites to gain control of the Senate and overwhelming favourites in the House.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The first polls for today’s US midterm elections close at 10am AEDT in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky. The real action will start at 11am when polls close in Senate contests in South Carolina and Florida. A guide to poll closing times is in Tuesday’s article for The Conversation.

In Nate Silver’s final forecast, Democrats have an 82% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 96% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives. They lead on the generic ballot by 9.3 points. However, Donald Trump’s net approval has rebounded to -20.4 from a low below -24.

In Senate contests in five states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, Democrats lead by 3.3 points in Texas, 2.4 points in Alaska, 1.1 points in Iowa, 4.0 points in Kansas and 3.0 points in Ohio. Republicans lead by just 1.1 points in South Carolina and 1.2 points in Nebraska against an independent.

There are two other Senate contests where Democrats had been struggling given Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024 and Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points. The Democratic candidates lead by 3.9 points in Republican-held Maine and by 4.9 points in Democratic-held Michigan.

Israeli election: what happens next

At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. All blocs are well short of the 61 needed for a majority. After these results are officially declared today, President Isaac Herzog has until November 11 to nominate someone who can form government: this will be either Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the biggest opposition party (Yashar with 21 seats).

The candidate nominated by Herzog has six weeks to form a government, including a two-week extension. If the first candidate fails, a second attempt can be made with a different candidate. If no government is formed by either candidate in the next three months, there will need to be new elections. Netanyahu remains caretaker PM until a new government is formed.

NZ and Bulgarian elections and Canadian by-elections

The New Zealand election is on Saturday. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation on Monday that a Verian poll last week gave right-wing parties a large enough lead over left-wing parties that they would get a majority of seats without needing Opportunity. However, a Reid Research poll still had left-wing parties ahead, with Opportunity gaining the balance of power. The final Verian poll has the right short of a majority, with Opportunity having the balance of power.

At Sunday’s Bulgarian presidential runoff election, socialist incumbent Iliana Iotova defeated centrist former PM Andrey Gyurov by 57.6—39.5 with 3.0% for none of the above. The Bulgarian presidency is mostly a symbolic office. Turnout was just 28.6%.

Six federal Canadian by-elections have been called for December 7. The centre-left governing Liberals will be defending two seats, the Conservatives two, the left-wing NDP one and the separatist Quebec Bloc one.

YouGov: Labor 25, One Nation 27, Coalition 23 (open thread)

Angus Taylor records his first ever lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, though the Coalition continues to run third on voting intention.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records next to no change on voting intention, with Labor up a point from their nadir to 25%, One Nation steady at 27%, the Coalition steady at 23% and the Greens down one to 13%. The Labor-versus-Coalition two-party result, which is based on preference flows in 2025, remains tied; Labor’s lead over One Nation, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, widens from 54-46 to 53-47. The poll is distinctive in being first to show Anthony Albanese trailing Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister, Taylor’s 41-39 lead being a reversal of the result last time. Conversely, Albanese’s lead over Pauline Hanson widens from 50-42 to 51-39. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.

Federal polls: Newspoll and DemosAU (open thread)

One Nation with its nose in front nationally in one poll, level in another, and well ahead in Queensland in a third.

The Australian reports the regular three-weekly Newspoll has Labor down two points to 27%, putting One Nation back in the lead as they hold steady on 28%. The Coalition gains a point to 21% and the Greens are down one to 13%. Leadership ratings are little changed for Anthony Albanese (steady on 36% approval and down one on disapproval to 59%) and Angus Taylor (up one to 37% and steady on 47%), but Pauline Hanson is up four on approval to 47% and down four on disapproval to 48%, for whatever reason.

The three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down one to 44%, Pauline Hanson steady on 30% and Angus Taylor up one to 26%. On the conventional measure, Albanese’s lead over Taylor narrows from 44-39 to 42-40. Also featured are ratings for seven senior ministers, Penny Wong emerging strongest with high name recognition and a slight net positive result (38% satisfied, 15% neutral, 36% dissatisfied), while Jim Chalmers scores 24% satisfied, 16% neutral, 40% dissatisfied. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1200.

We also have the monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, which finds the Coalition up four points to 24%, bouncing back after a four-point drop last time. Both Labor (who are down two) and One Nation (steady) on 26%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The seat estimates rate Labor unlikely to retain a majority, with a range of 64 to 77 out of 150 seats, with ranges of 37 to 56 for the Coalition, 18 to 32 for One Nation and zero to four for the Greens. Albanese’s personal ratings are 26% positive (down three), 28% neutral (up two) and 46% negative (up one); Taylor is at 27% (up four), 47% (down three) and 26% (down one); and Hanson is at 31% (down one), 24% (steady) and 45% (up one). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 36%, Taylor up one to 22% and Hanson down two to 23%. Head-to-head, Albanese leads Taylor 39-36 (in from 39-35) and Hanson 43-33 (in from 45-33). The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1500.

Also out today from Brisbane’s Sunday Mail is a federal voting intention result from the recent DemosAU Queensland poll. This has Labor running third in the state at 23%, with One Nation on 31%, the Coalition on 24% and the Greens on 12%. The poll was conducted October 14 to 21 from a sample of 1200.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly plea for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post. These posts also double as an opportunity to provide an update on what the site will have to offer over the coming months. Tuesday’s US mid-term elections have not escaped the site’s notice, but the forecast is otherwise dominated by what might be the most interesting state election to have been held in the longer-than-I-care-to-think history of the site, meaning of course the Victorian election on November 28.

To supplement the internet’s biggest and best Victorian state election guide, earlier this month I launched a seat prediction model to grapple with the question of how an election result might actually look in the unfamiliar new world into which we have been plunged by the ascendancy of One Nation. It currently has them favoured in 14 seats, but in most cases just barely – it would only take a few points’ drop from their currently projected 21.9% vote share for that to fall to almost nothing.

The model currently works by estimating three-party vote shares between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, and accommodates the Greens only to the extent of replacing Labor with them in the four seats they won in 2022. However, I’ve been working on extending its basic principles to a four-party model, and am holding off launching it largely because of a wild card remaining in the deck, namely Liberal Party preferences. The Liberals had Labor rather than the Greens last on their how-to-vote cards in 2022, which was atypical of their recent practice. This had a lot to do with their near-successes in Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray, and I don’t think the Greens’ chances in such seats can be usefully estimated until it’s known if this will happen again.

On the big day itself and beyond, this site will as usual feature its now finely honed live results feature. I am currently experimenting with moving this into an exciting new dimension by having it project results not just for individual seats, but the election in totality. Specifically, this will involve estimating the probability of each of the main parties winning a parliamentary majority, or there being a hung parliament where none of them look like doing so. However, I’m not yet clear that this will be in working order in time for the Victorian election.

US mid-terms minus one week

Your fair-and-balanced guide to next week’s mid-term elections, in which the Democrats are strongly favoured in the House and a fair shot in the Senate as well.

I don’t particularly claim to be an authority on US politics, so what follows is anything but a definitive guide. If nothing else though, writing it has been a useful way to get my own thoughts in order concerning next Tuesday’s mid-term elections, for which we should start to see results around noon on Wednesday, Sydney and Melbourne time.

In the House of Representatives, Nate Silver’s poll tracker has the Democrats leading on the “generic ballot” measure by 51.0% to 42.2%, while Patrick Ruffini’s model projects to a Democratic majority of 233 to 202. This is reflected in prediction markets, with Polymarket putting the probability of a Democratic majority at 91%.

Ruffini’s model is packaged for subscribers into a nifty “Swingometer” feature that the user can adjust in various ways. Much like the Mackerras pendulums familiar to election watchers in Australia, Ruffini’s model lists seats from bluest to reddest, taking into account the changes in nine states whose maps have been redrawn. This is based on vote share in the presidential rather than House election, producing base party vote shares on an apples-to-apples basis.

In all of the analysis that follows, I am citing Ruffini’s party vote estimates off the 2024 baseline, in which the Republicans had an overall advantage of 1.5% (reflecting Donald Trump’s 49.8% to 48.3% win over Kamala Harris on the popular vote), with all the incumbency and other adjustments Swingometer allows for set at zero. On this scenario, the Republicans win 234-201 — a gain of 14 seats on their actual result in 2024. Ten of the 14 can be put down to redistricting, but four represent the net effect of turning off incumbency advantages.

Moving the needle 1.5% to the right for a result of 50-50 reduces the Republican advantage only as far as 228 to 207. To get to the point marked on Mackerras pendulums as “swing required for majority”, the Democrats need to be winning the vote by 53.2-46.8. Under my no-frills settings, the 8.2% Democratic advantage calculated by Ruffini gets the Democrats to 230-205, which isn’t much different from the 233-202 Ruffini gets after pricing in candidate-related adjustments.

The effects of gerrymandering are evident in the relative paucity of Republican seats to be found between “EVEN” and 9% on the right side of the pendulum. Of the six states where maps have been redrawn by Republican-controlled legislatures, the Democrats need swings of more than 10% to gain any of the 30 notionally Republican seats in Texas; 9.2% to gain any out of 23 in Florida; 9.6% to gain any out of 11 in North Carolina; and they stand no chance of gains in Louisiana, Alabama or Tennessee.

Once the swings hit double-digits, gerrymandering starts to backfire: the process involves a party cutting its margins in strong seats to shore it up elsewhere, leaving few truly safe seats to fall back on when the wave becomes tidal. The Republicans have three seats in the 10% to 11% range in Texas; six between 10% and 15% in Florida; and four between 9% and 14% in North Carolina. The Democrats’ retaliatory gerrymander in California, endorsed by that state’s voters at a referendum, locks up Republican support in four of the state’s 52 districts with margins of between 12.6% and 33.0% (plus one Republican marginal at 1.9%), whereas eight seats have notional Democratic margins in single-digits.

Then there is the Senate, which must be reckoned on a case-by-case basis. Senators serve six-year terms over a staggered cycle in which a third are up for election every two years, with two-thirds of the states electing one of their two Senators at any given election. To this are added special elections for seats that have been warmed by placeholders since J.D. Vance resigned his Ohio seat to become Donald Trump’s running mate and Marco Rubio abandoned his seat in Florida to become Secretary of State.

Of the seats not up for election, 32 are held by Democrats, 31 by Republicans and two by independents – the latter caucus with the Democrats, but are balanced somewhat by the maverick tendencies of Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman. There is also the possibility, rated at 29% by Polymarket, that Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts will be unseated in Nebraska by Dan Osborn, an independent who says he will not caucus with either party.

The Democrats broadly defined can thus get to 50-50 if they win 16 of the 35 seats up for election, though the Vice-President’s casting vote means parity would little avail them. Seventeen will be required for an effective majority, and 18 for one that is Fetterman-proof. The presumption for most of the past two years has been that this task would be beyond them, as 22 of the 35 seats up for election are Republican-held. However, such has been the decline in the electoral standing of the President and his party that Polymarket now rates the Democrats a 63% chance of pulling it off.

The nine Democratic incumbents seeking re-election are presumably safe, as are the candidates seeking to succeed retiring members in Illinois, Minnesota and New Hampshire. However, the adventurous choice of Abdul El-Sayed to succeed Gary Peters means Michigan requires keeping an eye on, with Polymarket rating El-Sayed’s chances at 69%. The key Republican-held seats are as follows:

Continue reading “US mid-terms minus one week”

Israeli election live

Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition is expected to get well under the 61 seats needed for a majority, but can an alternative government be formed?

Results wrap

7:29am Friday (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, there’s been no change in support by bloc, and the result is 53 seats out of 120 for Netanyahu’s bloc (down 11 since the 2022 election), 48 for the Jewish opposition bloc (up two) and 19 for Arab parties (up nine to a record high). The oppositon will need support from both Ra’am (eight seats) and the Joint List (11) to get over the 61 seats needed for a majority. The overall result is 67-53 against Netanyahu, but will the 67 be able to cooperate?

Both the Netanyahu bloc and Arab parties outperformed pre-election polls, while the opposition greatly underperformed. The Netanyahu bloc had been expected to get about 50 seats and the Arab parties 13-15, leaving 55-57 expected seats for the opposition. However, the Netanyahu bloc did much worse than in polls for the right-wing Channel 14, which had them on 62 seats.

The only left-wing Jewish party, the Democrats, won eight seats (up four on Labor alone in 2022). Their eight seats was in line with polls. As I said in the introduction, Labor won 44 seats in 1992, but have plummeted since.

Live Commentary

2:29pm Contrary to my expectations, there was an update posted at 2am Israeli time (11am AEDT). With 90.5% counted, Wikipedia indicates there was no change in support by bloc from my previous update, with the Netanyahu bloc on 53 seats, the opposition bloc on 48 and the Arab parties on 19.

5:50am Thursday (Two paragraph entry) With 85.6% counted (all the ordinary votes), Ra’am is up to 5.8%, well above the 3.25% threshold. Haaretz has 53 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 48 for the opposition bloc and 19 for Arab parties.

Most of the remaining votes should be counted tonight AEDT. These will mostly come from the Israeli military. There will be few ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arabs in the military, so ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and UTJ (part of Netanyahu’s bloc) will do poorly, as will the Arab parties.

6:57pm There won’t be any more updates tonight. I’ll resume this tomorrow morning.

6:23pm The latest update from the electoral authority has 60% of votes counted. Ra’am is on 3.43%, only 0.18% above the threshold. Haaretz has 56 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 48 for the opposition bloc and 16 for Arab parties.

6:19pm The same source that I reported earlier was projecting a final outcome of Netanyahu bloc 53 seats, opposition bloc 48 and Arab parties 19 has revised to opposition bloc 54, Netanyahu bloc 53 and Arab parties 13. That’s due to Tel Aviv coming in big for the opposition.

5:52pm The Guardian says almost 10% voted at “special polling stations”, which seem like absent votes in Australia. These votes won’t be counted until Thursday. It’s not as if the ordinary votes haven’t been taking far too long to count!

5:45pm A better site for converting votes into seats is Haaretz.com. They have the Netanyahu bloc at 55 seats, the opposition bloc at 49 and Arab parties at 16.

5:39pm The Guardian’s new live blog says on current votes, the Netanyahu bloc has 56 seats, the opposition bloc 49 and Arab parties 15.

5:15pm With 52% of votes counted, the Democrats have increased to 6.9%, but Ra’am has fallen to 3.5%, just above the 3.25% threshold. The latest votes haven’t yet been converted into seats by Wikipedia.

3:21pm The latest votes give Netanyahu’s bloc 57 seats, the opposition bloc 46 and the Arab parties 17.

3:09pm With 37% of votes counted, the Joint List is up to 9.2% and Ra’am up to 3.8%. The latest votes haven’t yet been added to Wikipedia. I’ve seen final results projections that have the Netanyahu bloc winning 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and the Arab parties 19.

2pm With 28% of votes counted, the Joint List is up to 8.3% and Ra’am is up to 3.7%. With Ra’am now above the 3.25% threshold, Wikipedia has Netanyahu’s bloc now winning 59 seats.

1:45pm Wikipedia’s live seat count, based on results reported so far, gives Netanyahu’s bloc 63 seats, a majority. Results so far are very likely to be unrepresentative.

1:38pm With 21% counted, Likud leads Yashar by 23.4-15.7. The Arab Joint List is up to 6.5% and Ra’am is up to 3.2%. The other Netanyahu-bloc parties have 6.6%, 6.3%, 5.8% and 5.7%. The Democrats have 5.8%.

12:41pm Wtih 11% counted, Likud leads Yashar by 25.3-16.6. Two opposition bloc parties have 9.0% and 7.3% and other Netanyahu bloc parties have 6.6%, 6.5%, 5.9% and 5.2%, with the Democrats up to 5.6%. The Joint List Arab party has 4.4% and Ra’am just 1.7%.

11:57am With 5.7% of voters counted, Likud continues to lead Yashar by 27.8-16.3. Two opposition bloc parties follow with 9.0% and 8.1%, followed by four Netanyahu-bloc parties at 7.2%, 5.8%, 5.3% and 5.1%. The Democrats, the only left-wing Jewish party, have just 4.9%. The Arab parties are still doing badly, indicating that Arab booths haven’t been counted yet.

11:35am The two exit polls released earlier have been revised. Netanyahu’s bloc is now tied with the opposition bloc at 51 seats each, with the remaining 18 seats going to Arab parties.

11:24am There are 7.33 million eligible voters. On a turnout of 77.7%, there should be nearly 5.7 million votes. So the current 94,098 votes counted at 11:11 AEDT is 1.7% of the electorate. Likud continues to lead Yashar by 26.6-17.1 with the Arab parties still not doing well.

10:39am Official results are here. Even though this is the English version, you’ll need Google Translate to translate the Hebrew party names into English. Only 78 booths out of 12,495 and 14,400 votes had been counted as at 10:03am AEDT. So far Netanyahu’s Likud leads with 26.5% followed by 19.3% for Yashar, the party of Gadi Eisenkot, who is seen as the main opposition leader. The Arab parties are doing badly, suggesting that the polls counted so far don’t include Arab booths.

9:09am Final turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 2001.

7:22am Finally we have two exit polls. They have the opposition bloc winning 52-53 seats, the Netanyahu bloc 50 seats and Arab parties 17-18. Both blocs will be a long way from the 61 needed for a majority.

6:55am Wednesday The Guardian’s live blog says exit polls will be released after voting finishes at 7am AEDT. The first official results won’t be available until about 10am AEDT. Turnout with two hours to go was 74.3%, up from 66.3% at the same time in 2022, and ahead of final turnout in 2022 of 70.6%.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday for today’s Israeli election. From previous experience, it will take all day Wednesday to count most of the votes. There will be further counting over the next seven days before the result is finalized.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. At the 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition of Likud (32 seats), Religious Zionists (14), Shas (11) and UTJ (seven) won a combined 64 seats, above the 61 needed for a majority.

Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show a majority for the current governing coalition, with all other recent polls giving the government about 50 seats. There are two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which have a combined 13–15 seats in the polls. This is a problem for formation of a non-Netanyahu government, as the leaders of the main Jewish parties have vowed not to form government with Arab support. Publication of polls has been banned since last Friday.

While Netanyahu is likely to lose, this October 18 article in The Guardian said that Israel is becoming more right-wing. While young people in other countries are more left-wing than older people, it’s the reverse in Israel. The only left-wing Jewish party is the Democrats, a merger of Labor and Meretz.

Labor used to form governments in Israel. They won 44 seats on 34.7% of the vote in 1992, but have plummeted since, winning just four seats on 3.7% in 2022. Meretz was to the left of Labor, but fell below the 3.25% threshold in 2022. In current polls, the Democrats are winning 8–10 seats.

Other elections: the US, Serbia and the Czech Republic

The US midterm elections are next Tuesday, with polls closing from late Wednesday morning AEDT. I wrote for The Conversation on Monday that there hasn’t been much change in Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast during October. Democrats have a 75% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 95% chance in the House of Representatives. They lead Republicans in the generic ballot by 9.5 points. Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3.

Serbia elects its 250 MPs by national proportional representation with a 3% threshold that is waived for ethnic minority parties. With 97.6% reporting for Sunday’s election, the new Student List won 53.4% of the vote and 140 seats, while the governing populist right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 39.7% and 103 seats (down 26 since the December 2023 election), with no other party clearing the threshold. The remaining seven seats went to ethnic minority parties. This ended the SNS’ period of government that had lasted since 2012.

The Czech Senate has 81 members, with 27 up for election every two years using single-member electorates with a two-round system. At October 9—10 and 16—17 elections, the governing populist right ANO 2011 won zero seats (down one), the first time a government has not won a seat. The centre-left Mayors and Independents won nine seats (down one) and two conservative parties a combined ten seats (up two). Overall, the two conservative parties combined hold 32 of the 81 seats, Mayors and Independents 14 and ANO 11.

Morgan: Labor 26, Coalition 23.5, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

Roy Morgan produces the first federal poll in two months to have the Coalition ahead of One Nation.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition nudging into second place with a two-point gain to 23.5%, while One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 22.5%. Labor is steady on 26% and the Greens have gained half a point to 15.5%. Labor holds respondent-allocated two-party leads of 55-45 over One Nation, out from 54.5-45.5, and 52.5-47.5 over One Nation, in from 53-47. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on previous election preference flows is in from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47. The poll was conducted October 12 to 25 from a sample of 2711. The full release features breakdowns for the five mainland states.

UPDATE (28/10): The monthly Essential Research poll has Labor down one to 28%, One Nation up three to 28%, the Coalition up one to 23%, the Greens steady on 12%, the remainder including a 4% undecided component. For what it’s worth while they are running third, the pollster’s 2PP+ measure gives the Coalition its best result over Labor in years, a 52-44 lead comparing with 48-46 in Labor’s favour last time. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor records strong improvement with a four-point increase in approval to 35% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 40%.

Also featured is a suite of questions on how various issues would go if One Nation were leading the federal government, with 43% holding that immigration levels would be better handled compared with 32% for worse. The results are net negative across the other nine issues, though by generally modest margins, particularly on government spending and debt and community safety. A question on best party to manage the economy finds 31% opting for Labor, 25% for One Nation and 23% for the Coalition; another on ensuring the economic best interests of Australians has Labor 32%, One Nation 29% and Coalition 18%. The poll has a sample of 1087, and I assume was conducted last Wednesday to Monday.

Newspoll: Labor 24, Coalition 33, One Nation 20 in Victoria

With only a month to go, Newspoll gives the Coalition its strongest Victorian poll result since the start of the year.

The Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll that credits the Coalition with a two-party lead over Labor of 55-45, out from 52-48 at a poll conducted in July, one week before Jacinta Allan was deposed. Labor is down four on the primary vote to 24%, with the Coalition up two to 33%, One Nation up one to 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Ben Carroll’s debut personal ratings are 30% favourable and 58% unfavourable; Jess Wilson is up two to 49% and steady on 39%, and leads Carroll 48-34 on preferred premier, compared with her 51-32 lead over Allan in the last poll. The poll was conducted October 15 to 22 from a sample of 1017. Another Victorian state poll, from DemosAU, should be along in the coming days.

Further Victorian election news (and note also new posts below this one on a Queensland state poll and Brazil’s presidential election):

• Roy Morgan last week had region-level results of upper house voting intention drawn from polling of 2845 respondents conducted from July to September, suggesting an overall result of 12 seats for the Coalition, 10 for Labor, eight for the Greens and six for One Nation, with the remaining four in play. The results in 2022 were Labor 15, Coalition 14, Greens four and One Nation one, with various others accounting for six seats – the latter aspect assuredly not to be repeated this time due to the abolition of group voting tickets.

• As Labor sorts out its Legislative Council tickets, Left-faction incumbent Sonja Terpstra, who was elected from second on the North-Eastern Metropolitan ticket in 2022, announced a fortnight ago that she will not seek re-election. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported last week that the Right was weighing up which of the top positions out of Southern Metropolitan and North-Eastern Metropolitan to yield to an under-represented Left, to be determined by a national executive ballot if the relevant factional leaders could not reach agreement. The respective lead candidates for the two regions in 2022 were Shaun Leane, who is retiring, and John Berger, who is presumably under threat. The Left’s Ryan Batchelor, who was elected from second in Southern Metropolitan in 2022, had “covered his bases” by nominating in both regions. Kate Maxwell, an emergency department doctor at Latrobe Regional Hospital and the daughter of former Narracan MP Ian Maxfield, was to replace the retiring Gayle Tierney in Western Victoria, which presumably means taking second position behind incumbent Jacinta Ermacora.

• Marcus de Blonk Smith of The Australian reports Liberal sources saying the party will hold off preference negotiations with One Nation until after the close of nominations. An earlier report in The Australian by Anthony Galloway suggests this is because they may wish to withhold preferences from specific candidates with “unacceptable conduct or views”, and may keep simple in seats where it draws top of the ballot paper by recommending a donkey vote. The battle that long raged over whether to put One Nation last has seemingly been decided in favour of One Nation in recent years, though One Nation remained concerned enough to pressure Angus Taylor to sign a commitment to put Labor last when he appeared at the MAGA-adjacent CPAC conference earlier this month. The main beneficiary of such a decision would in fact be the Greens, who became competitive for the first time in Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray when the Liberals put Labor last in 2022.

• The Liberals have dumped Grant Hutchinson as their candidate for the eastern suburbs seat of Croydon, which will be vacated with the retirement of David Hodgett. The state executive moved on October 13 to replace Hutchinson with Toby Wooldridge, associate director of a geospatial analytics firm, son of Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge and nephew of former state MP Mary Wooldridge. Jess Wilson told the media that “further details” had come to light concerning Hutchinson’s ongoing legal battle with current and former partners of his law firm, Hutchinson Legal. Liberal sources cited by Anthony Galloway of The Australian spoke of concern that Liberal internal affairs would be aired amid a dispute in which Hutchinson had been accused of “bullying and using the firm’s resources to further his political career”.

• Alex White of the Herald Sun reports Labor “insiders” say Frankston and Carrum are “likely to be lost”, but they remain hopeful Mordialloc might be retained and optimistic about Bentleigh. A Liberal source suggested the party considered the eastern suburbs seats of Box Hill, Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Bayswater were a higher priority.

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