Resolve Strategic: Labor 30, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 in New South Wales

A New South Wales state poll finds the Coalition sinking further into third place, plus an avalanche of news to relate ahead of the March election.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic New South Wales State poll has Labor up a point to 30%, One Nation up one to 26%, the Coalition down one to 23% and the Greens up two to 13%. The second preferred premier question to include One Nation’s Mike Newman as a response option has Chris Minns up three to 30%, Kellie Sloane down three to 12% and Newman up three to 11%. The poll combines responses from Resolve Strategic’s last two monthly surveys for a total sample of 1100.

There is a very great deal of news to report relating to the March state election, as the parties’ preselection processes hit their stride:

Continue reading “Resolve Strategic: Labor 30, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 in New South Wales”

RedBridge Group: Coalition 31, Labor 23, One Nation 22 in Victoria

Plus preference arrangements, candidate disendorsements and leaders’ movements.

The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research Victorian state poll that has the Coalition up a point on last month to 31%, Labor down one to 23%, One Nation down two to 22% and the Greens down one to 15%, with the Coalition leading Labor 57-43 on two-party preferred, out from 56-44. Ben Carroll’s unfavourable plus very unfavourable rating spikes 10 points to 47%, with very favourable plus favourable steady on 19% and neutral down three to 28%, the balance being a drop in “have not heard of them”. He can console himself that Jess Wilson is also up 10 on unfavourable, to 28%, with favourable steady on 35% and neutral down one to 29%. Warren Pickering is up two on favourable to 17%, up one on neutral to 32% and up five on unfavourable to 25%. The poll was conducted November 3 to 10 from a sample of 1008.

Also:

• The Herald Sun reports the Liberals will direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens in Greens-held Melbourne and Richmond and Labor-held Northcote, reversing their approach in 2022 when their how-to-vote cards had Labor last. On the 2022 results, that would have made the Greens uncompetitive in Northcote, where they lost by only 184 votes, and made Richmond lineball, though the Greens would still have comfortably won Melbourne. No direction will be made in Footscray, raising the bar on Labor’s 4.2% margin there, and Brunswick, where the Greens would still be favoured to win. Presumably relatedly, Labor will not direct preferences in Prahran, which the Liberals won from the Greens at a by-election last year, and Caulfield, which is presumably down to the sensitivities of the local Jewish community.

• The Liberal Party has disendorsed its candidate for Williamstown, Paul Lindemann, though it cames too late to prevent him being identified as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper. This comes after The Age unearthed an anonymous Facebook account run by Lindemann that mocked Indigenous culture and argued “half-breeds” should forego Indigenous status.

• The Australian reported on Tuesday that since October 25, Ben Carroll had visited 30 Labor-held seats with an average margin of 10.3%, while Jess Wilson has visited 15 with an average margin of 8.4%. Carroll has been to only three of the eight seats held on margins of less than 6% against the Coalition.

Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Spectre Strategy (open thread)

Two more federal polls with broadly familiar findings, plus a survey on social cohesion or the lack thereof.

Two more federal polls that have emerged this week:

• The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down a point to 25.5%, One Nation up two to 24.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 22% and the Greens down half to 15%. Labor holds two-party leads over the Coalition of 52.5-47.5 (in from 53-47) on previous election preferences and 51-49 on respondent-allocated (in from 52.5-47.5), and of 52-48 (in from 53-47) over One Nation on respondent-allocated. The poll was conducted October 26 to November 8 from a sample of 2574.

• Spectre Strategy has published one of its occasional federal polls (its third for the year), which has Labor at 25%, One Nation at 28%, the Coalition at 24% and the Greens at 13%. The Coalition holds a 53-47 respondent-allocated two-party lead over Labor, while Labor holds a 52-48 lead over One Nation. Anthony Albanese has a combined favourable and very favourable rating of 29%, 14% for neutral and 54% for unfavourable and very unfavourable, while Angus Taylor is at 27%, 27% and 29%, and Pauline Hanson is at 41%, 12% and 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese at 34%, Taylor at 22% and Hanson at 30%. The poll was conducted October 28 to November 3 from a sample of 2093.

• Also, the annual Scanlon Foundation/Australian National University Mapping Social Cohesion survey finds 31% of the view that “government in Canberra can be trusted to do the right thing for the Australian people” almost always or most of the time, down from 54% in 2020, with the results heavily polarised on partisan lines, One Nation voters being the most distrustful. The sentiment that “multiculturalism has been good for Australia” is at 76%, down from 89% in 2023. Forty-three per cent confess to negative attitudes towards Muslims, up from 29% in 2022; 18% towards Hindus, up from 9%; 18% towards Jews, up from 8%; and 36% profess a negative attitude towards Israel.

Victorian election: Resolve Strategic and Pakenham seat poll

Polls, preference deals, how-to-vote cards, and the finalisation of who’s running and where.

Further developments on the Victorian election front, including two new polls:

• The Age has a Resolve Strategic poll, conducted as part of the same survey as yesterday’s federal poll, which finds Labor running third without going quite so far as yesterday’s DemosAU result. The Coalition is up two points on last month’s result to 30%, One Nation is steady on 23%, Labor is down three to 22%, and the Greens are down two to 13%. Ben Carroll’s net approval rating is down five to minus 16%, Jess Wilson is up one to plus 24%, and and Warren Picking is up one to plus 9%. Wilson has a particularly good result on preferred premier, up six to 35%, with Ben Carroll down one to 21% and Warren Pickering up one to 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1000.

• The Herald Sun has a small sample seat poll of Pakenham on Melbourne’s south-eastern fringe, which Warren Pickering is relying on to carry him to One Nation’s parliamentary leadership. Conducted by TKW Research and Demos AU from a sample of 484, it has Pickering at 40% to Liberal candidate Radmila Dyson’s 24% and 14% for Labor’s Alessandra Soliven. However, as an indication of the challenge One Nation might faced, this only pans out to a 50-50 result on two-party preferred versus Liberal, which is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow from DemosAU’s accumulated polling rather than this specific poll. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 484, so its margin of error is upwards of 5%.

• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday about how-to-vote cards that appears to be available to non-subscribers. The upshot is that out of all the coverage that preference deals will receive over the coming week, only one aspect is worth your attention: who the Liberals put last out of Labor and the Greens, which could determine the outcome in a number of inner Melbourne seats.

• Yesterday saw the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, so we know exactly who’s standing where and in what order. This makes it time for me to bring my election guide up to speed, which I’ll be working on over the coming days. Antony Green crunches the numbers: there are almost exactly as many lower house candidates as there were in 2022 (which is to say too many), but the end of group voting tickets has brought the number of upper house candidates down from 454 to 304, the lower number since 2020.

DemosAU: Labor 18, Coalition 33, One Nation 21 in Victoria

A new poll suggests a disastrous collapse in Labor’s already parlous position three weeks out from the Victorian election.

The Herald Sun has a DemosAU/Premier National poll that provides the most distinctive Victorian state result yet in having Labor at just 18%, a seven-point dive since the last such poll in September. This puts them not only behind One Nation, who are up a point to 21%, but only one point clear of the Greens, who are up three to an unprecedented 17%. The Coalition is up three to 33%, and its two-party lead over Labor has blown out from 52-48 to 56-44.

Ben Carroll’s personal ratings are 17% positive (down six), 36% neutral (down four) and 47% negative (up 10), while Jess Wilson is at 38% (up five), 37% (down five) and 25% (steady), Warren Pickering is at 23% (up one), 34% (down four) and 43% (up three). Also included for the first time are results for Ellen Sandell, who is at 18% positive, 44% neutral and 38% negative. Jess Wilson’s head-to-head lead over Ben Carroll on preferred premier is at 48-30, while a three-way measure has Wilson on 36%, Carroll on 28% and Pickering on 19%. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1562.

Federal polls: Resolve Strategic and RedBridge Group (open thread)

Two new polls finding Labor maintaining its downward trajectory, and in one case losing its two-party preferred advantage.

Two new federal polls are out, the more sobering for Labor being the monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review, which has the Coalition up four to 25% and Labor down two to 26%, with One Nation maintaining a lead on 28% (down one point) the Greens up two to 13%. The Coalition’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences has actually narrowed slightly, from 54-46 to 53-47, and Labor’s lead over One Nation has widened from 52-48 to 54-46. On previous election preference flows, the Coalition now leads 51-49 after a tied result last time. Movements in personal ratings were also better for Labor than the voting intention figures might suggest, with Anthony Albanese improving from minus 27 to minus 23 and Jim Chalmers nudging from minus 23 to minus 22. Angus Taylor was up a point to minus 5 and Pauline Hanson was down four to minus 14. The three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese down a point to 30%, Hanson down two to 24% and Taylor up one to 16%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1005.

The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers has Labor down a point to 28%, One Nation steady on 25%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens up one to 13%. The three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down three to 29%, Angus Taylor up three to 25% and Pauline Hanson down two to 24%. Anthony Albanese’s very good plus good rating is down two to 34% and his poor plus very poor rating is up three to 57%, while Angus Taylor is up one to 42% and steady on 33%. The three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese down three to 29%, Taylor up three to 25% and Hanson down two to 24%. The poll also finds 42% holding the federal government primarily to blame for rising living costs, compared with 26% for global factors outside Australian control and 7% for the Reserve Bank. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 2250.

NZ election live and US late counting

The centrist Opportunity will probably win the balance of power at today’s New Zealand election. This post will also follow late counting in the US mid-term elections.

Live Commentary

10:23am Thursday (Two paragraph entry) Mississippi’s Senate contest has been called for Dem Colom, who leads Rep Hyde-Smith by 0.48 percentage points or nearly 4,700 votes. At the 2024 election, Trump won Mississippi by nearly 23 points. That takes Dems to a 55-44 Senate lead with only Alaska still to be decided.

With 84% counted in Alaska, Dem Peltola leads Rep Sullivan by 49.0-47.2. Alaska uses preferential voting, and a minor Rep has 2.2%. But the remaining votes will probably be very good for Peltola.

2:33pm In Mississippi’s Senate contest, Dem Colom now leads Rep Hyde-Smith by 0.32 percentage points or nearly 3,000 votes. It hasn’t been called yet, but it looks over.

9:35am Wednesday In California, the referendum proposing a wealth tax on billionaires has been defeated. No leads by 52.8-47.2 with 83% in.

12:36pm Tuesday For the US mid-terms, with 76% counted in Alaska, Dem Peltola’s lead over Rep Sullivan increases to 48.6-47.5. It was 48.2-47.9 with 74% in.

11:45am Monday The aggregate sum of votes in the electorates gave National a 41.3-33.8 lead over Labour (7.5 points). This explains why National was ahle to win so many electorate seats. TPM’s electorate vote was 3.4%, compared with its party list vote of 0.6%. ACT and NZ First’s electorate vote was far less than their party votes and so, to a lesser extent, was the Greens. There are about 400,000 special votes remaining to be counted (14% of all votes).

2:06pm My article for The Conversation on the NZ results has been published. If neither National or TPM had any overhangs, the right would still have won a majority on the preliminary results, as the right’s lead over the left of 6.7 percentage points exceeded Opportunity’s 6.0%.

11:07am In Israel, Herzog has selected Eisenkot to attempt to form a government.

6:33am Sunday (Two paragraph entry) Final preliminary results give Labour a 0.15% party vote lead over National, but National is winning the 71 electorates by 42-21 over Labour, with five for TPM, two Greens and one ACT. Total seats are 42 National, 36 Labour, 16 Greens, 13 ACT, 12 NZ First, seven Opportunity and five TPM. On this count, parliament will have an 11-seat overhang, being expanded to 131 MPs. Right-wing parties will have 67 of these 131 MPs, one more than the 66 needed for a majority.

There are two electorates, Hamilton East and Wairarapa, where National leads Labour by less than 500 votes. With the expected shift to the left on the final results, National could lose both after final results, which won’t be released until November 27.

11:09pm It’s taking NZ too long to count those final 1% of booths. I’ll report the final election night results tomorrow morning.

11pm On the current count, Nat’s seat entitlement should be 35 seats, so they’re getting a seven-seat overhang. TPM’s seat entitlement should be one. By winning five electorates, they’re getting a four-seat overhang.

10:55pm With 98.8% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.04% on party votes, but Nat is still winning 42 electorate seats and the right has 67 of 131 seats, one above the 66 needed for a majority.

10:27pm With 97.6% counted, Labour is just 0.02% behind National on party votes, but Nat are winning the electorates by 42-21 over Lab, with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. The right overall has 67 of 130 seats.

9:43pm With 94% of booths in, there hasn’t been much change since the last update, with Nat leading Lab in electorates by 42-20 and the right overall winning 66 of 129 seats. These results won’t be the final count. We won’t know that result until Nov 27.

9:01pm 88% of booths have been counted. The last 12% are probably bigger booths, so they could have a larger impact on the result than you would think. The right has 66 of 129 seats currently. Opportunity is at 5.9%, and will clear the 5% threshold.

8:48pm Lab is starting to climb again, up to 29.06% after falling to 28.95%. Nat has lost leads in two electorates, and now lead electorates by 41-22 over Lab with five TPM. The right overall has 66 of 129 seats, one above the 65 required for a majority with 83% overall counted.

8:36pm Nat now winning electorates by 43-20 over Labour with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. With 79% overall counted, the right has 68 of 131 seats, two above the 66 needed for a majority.

8:16pm Nat loses the lead in an electorate seat, now winning electorates by 41-21 over Lab. With 70% overall counted, the right has 66 out of 129 total seats.

8:08pm With 66% overall counted, Lab’s drop continues as they now trail Nat by 0.36%. The right is winning 67 of 130 seats.

7:54pm Lab continues to drop as the election day vote comes in, now trailing Nat by 0.1%, with Opportunity at 5.7%. With 56.6% counted overall, Nat leads the 71 electorates by 42-20 over Lab, with five for TPM, three Greens and one ACT. Right-wing parties have an overall 67 out of 131 seats on current counting, a majority.

7:44pm As the election day vote has started to come in, Lab and Nat are back to a virtual tie (Lab by 0.03) with 51% overall counted. On the advance votes, Lab led by 0.7%. Right-wing parties are just above a majority with 67 of the 131 total seats.

7:23pm There are now about 75,000 election day votes counted out of nearly 1.6 million total. So far Lab is doing a little worse and Nat a little better on these votes, which are probably unrepresentative. With 40% overall counted, the overhang is up to 11 seats, with Nat winning the electorates over Lab by 42-20 despite losing the party vote by 0.34%. The right has 66 of these 131 current seats.

7:10pm Greens are helping Nat win some seats under FPTP. Eg in Nelson, Nat lead Lab by 406 with the Greens on over 2,200 votes, though ACT has 978.

6:57pm With 31.9% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.44% on party votes, but Nat is leading on electorates by 41-21, with TPM still winning five electorates. This is producing a 10-seat overhang, with the right having 65 of 130 seats, one short of a majority. There are not many election day votes counted yet.

6:35pm Despite trailing Lab by 0.5% on party votes, Nat leads Lab by 42-20 in the electorates. That’s currently giving the right 66 of 130 seats.

6:24pm Nat’s seat lead over Lab is down to 40-22 with 26% in, with the right no longer having an overall majority, currently they’re at 64 of 128 seats.

6:18pm Labour overtakes Nat on party votes by 0.1% with 24.9% counted, but they’re still losing the electorate count by 41-21.

6:12pm With 23.5% counted overall, Nat is just 0.1% ahead of Labour on party votes, and the overall right is down to a bare majority 65 seats out of 129. Opportunity is at 5.4%, above the 5% threshold. Nat leads Lab on electorate seats by 41-21.

5:48pm With 17.5% overall counted, National has lost a lead in an electorate, so they’re down to 42 electorate seats out of 71. The right-wing parties have 67 of 129 seats. The gap between National and Labour’s party vote has been narrowing.

5:42pm In the Maori electorate of Waiariki, TPM is so far getting nearly 5,000 electorate votes but just 735 party votes. This explains why TPM is only getting 0.4% of the national party vote while winning five electorates.

5:30pm With 9.7% in, there’s a nine-seat overhang (129 seats). Nat, ACT and NZF have a combined 68 seats on current counting, enough for a right majority without needing Opportunity.

5:22pm With 5.4% of booths in, National is winning 41 electorate seats, three higher than its entitlement, and TPM is winning five electorates, five higher than entitled given its party vote of just 0.3%. If this holds, parliament will have 128 seats, an eight-seat overhang.

5:11pm There’s already some results from Advance voting. With 1.2% counted, National 31.0%, Labour 29.8%, Greens 12.2%, ACT 11.0%, NZ First 9.4%, Opportunity 5.7% and TPM 0.3%.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 5pm AEDT today for the New Zealand election. Advance (pre-poll) votes will be counted quickly after polls close, with election day votes taking longer. NZ media don’t use booth-matched swings.  The final election night count is still preliminary, with no further updates until final results are reported on November 27. In past elections, left-wing parties have gained one or two seats from the preliminary results to the final results.

NZ uses the Mixed Member Proportional system with a nominal 120 seats in parliament. To qualify, parties must either win at least 5% of the party list vote or at least one of the 71 single-member electorates. However, if a party wins more electorates than their entitlement from the party vote, they keep their extra seats and parliament is expanded (an “overhang”).

I wrote about the final three pre-election polls for The Conversation on Friday. If the polls are accurate, right-wing governing parties (National, ACT and NZ First) will have a 2—5 point lead over left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (TPM)). But the centrist Opportunity has between 5.1% and 6.2%. If they clear the 5% threshold, they are likely to gain the balance of power between the left and right.

There are seven electorates reserved for those on the Māori roll. In Monday’s Conversation article, I said if TPM wins at least three of these electorates, they would get an overhang, as they’re at 2% or less in national polls. Other possibilities of overhangs involve one of Labour or National overperforming in electorates (as both traditional major parties’ votes are low).

US mid-term election updates

Democrats are increasingly likely to win the Senate by 56—44 over Republicans, a nine-seat gain for Democrats. In the Mississippi Senate contest, Democrat Scott Colom has kept extending his lead since election night over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colon now leads by 0.27 points or nearly 2,600 votes. I previously wrote that late counting in Alaska will strongly favour Democrat Mary Peltola.

In the House, Democrats lead Republicans by 254—162 in called races with 19 still uncalled. Most uncalled seats have Republican leads, including two Louisiana seats that had “jungle primaries” on Tuesday and will go to runoffs on December 12. If uncalled seats are assigned to current leaders, Democrats are leading by 259—176.  Republican Lauren Boebert is currently losing her Colorado fourth seat by 0.83 points.

The Cook Political Report now has a popular vote tracker, with Democrats leading by 55.7—42.9, a 12.8-point margin. This lead will expand further as Democratic strongholds like California are slow to count their votes. The swing to the Democrats from a 2.6-point Republican margin in 2024 has enabled them to overcome Republican gerrymanders in some states to make gains, with only Louisiana’s gerrymander likely to be successful (pending the runoffs).

I mentioned before that Democrats had taken full control in Pennsylvania and Michigan (governor and both chambers of the state legislature). Democrats also took full control in Arizona for the first time in 60 years, and in Wisconsin for the first time since 2010.

Israeli and Spanish election updates

At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. On Thursday, Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the largest opposition party, secured endorsements from 67 MPs (the opposition bloc plus the Arab parties), while Netanyahu only had endorsements from 46, with the ultra-Orthodox UTJ, which is part of Netanyahu’s bloc, abstaining. President Isaac Herzog will announce his decision Sunday on who gets the first opportunity to form a government. That candidate will have six weeks to form a government.

I previously wrote on October 20 about the snap November 29 Spanish election. Polls still mostly have the conservative People’s Party (PP) ahead of the governing Socialists, with 19—20% for the populist right Vox, indicating a combined majority of seats for PP and Vox.  However, the most recent poll has the Socialists leading the PP, although the combined vote for national right-wing parties is still ahead of the combined left vote.

Victorian election minus three weeks

Two new Victorian state polls, both with the Coalition well ahead on the primary vote, plus further developments from the campaign for the November 28 election.

The Herald Sun today has what promises to be weekly results of a campaign tracking poll that will conduct weekly surveys and publish as two-week rolling averages. Branded Lighthouse Political Monitor, the polling is conducted by Growth Intelligence Centre, News Corp’s internal research and data analytics operation. The poll has the Coalition on 31%, Labor on 23%, One Nation on 22% and the Greens on 14%. The poll recorded a minus 21 net favourability rating for Ben Carroll and plus 9 for Jess Wilson. It was conducted October 19 to November 1 from a sample of 1289. A further poll should be along from DemosAU fairly shortly.

There was also a Roy Morgan SMS poll conducted late last week which put the Coalition on 29.5% (up three-and-a-half on three weeks ago), Labor on 22.5% (steady), One Nation on 22% (down three) and the Greens on 12.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 55-45 to 56-44. The poll was conducted October 26 to 29 from a sample of 3610.

Also:

• The report by James Campbell of the Herald Sun accompanying the Lighthouse poll noted that Labor’s digital advertising spend was targeting seats seemingly as safe as Dandenong (margin 18.3%) and Kalkallo (16.5%), and that “the Premier’s seat of Niddrie is also being heavily targeted”.

• The Age reports Barnaby Joyce talking down his party’s prospects at the Victorian election by accusing “those who wish to disparage us” of characterising it as a “litmus test” for the party, a distinction that properly belongs to the New South Wales election in March.

• Anthony Galloway of The Australian reports the Liberal Party is considering pursuing a deal with Labor in which it would revert to its pre-2022 practice of putting the Greens last on its how-to-vote cards, in return for which Labor would direct preferences to Liberal or “at least run an open ticket” (the latter assuredly being more plausible) in Prahran. The report says the Liberals are divided over who to put last, and notes that flyers calling for the party to relegate the Greens are being distributed in the Jewish community stronghold of Caulfield.

• Labor and Liberal remain at loggerheads over whether designated One Nation leader Warren Pickering should be included in the leaders’ debate, which Labor sees as an opportunity to promote concerns about a One Nation-backed Coalition government. The prospective host, the Nine Network, had hitherto been in Labor’s corner, but reached a deal with Wilson over a head-to-head debate next Thursday, which Labor refuses to countenance. A News24 People’s Forum event including Carroll, Wilson, Pickering and Greens leader Ellen Sandell will be held on Tuesday week.

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