German state elections live

The populist right AfD came close to winning a majority of seats in Saxony-Anhalt last fortnight, but they are very unlikely to repeat that performance at today’s state elections.

Live Commentary

7:25am With 96% reporting in Berlin, the Left leads with 25.8%, followed by the CDU at 18.8%, the AfD 15.9%, the Greens 14.5%, the SPD 12.2% and the BSW 4.7%. So the BSW will narrowly fall below the 5% threshold in both state elections. Berlin will be a clear win for the three left-wing parties.

7:06am With 99% reporting in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV), the CDU has crashed below the 5% threshold, and are currently on 4.9%. Current vote shares are 38.4% AfD, 35.4% SPD, 6.5% Left, 5.6% Greens, 4.9% CDU, 4.8% BSW and just 1.0% FDP. If that result holds, only four parties will qualify, and a government of SPD, Left and Greens will be formed.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am. Both elections use statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. There will be at least 71 MPs elected in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and at least 130 in Berlin.

At the 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, the centre-left SPD won 34 of the 79 seats on 39.6% of the vote, the populist right AfD 14 seats on 16.7%, the conservative CDU 12 seats on 13.3%, the Left party nine seats on 9.9%, the Greens five seats on 6.3% and the pro-business FDP five seats on 5.8%. A governing coalition of the SPD and Left was formed.

Polls for today’s election have the AfD just ahead of the SPD with both in the 30s, followed by the Left in the low double digits, the CDU at 6-7%, the Greens at 5% and the economically left but socially right BSW at 3-5%. It will be easier for the SPD to form a left-wing government if the Greens clear the 5% threshold.

At the 2023 Berlin election, the CDU won 52 of the 159 seats on 28.2% of the vote, the SPD 34 seats on 18.4%, the Greens 34 seats on 18.4%, the Left 22 seats on 12.2% and the AfD 17 seats on 9.1%. Although the combined left parties held a majority of seats, the CDU and SPD formed a governing coalition.

In Berlin, parties that win at least one of the 78 single-member electorates using first-past-the-post are exempt from the 5% threshold. Polls for today’s election have the Left just ahead of the CDU with both in the low 20s, followed by the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15-16%, the SPD at 10-12% and the BSW at 3-5%. These polls would mean a majority of seats for the three left-wing parties, but no majority for the current CDU/SPD government.

There hasn’t been much change in German federal polls since the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD is in the high 20s, with the CDU/CSU drifting below 20%. The combined vote for the three left parties is still usually below 40%.

US midterm elections updates

The US midterm elections are on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation last Monday that Democrats’ chances at the midterms depend on the Iran war’s impact on petrol prices in the lead-up to the elections. Nate Silver’s forecast model currently gives Democrats a 65% chance to gain control of the federal Senate (57% last Monday) and a 90% chance in the House of Representatives (86% previously). Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8.6 points (previously 8.1 points). Donald Trump’s net approval is -20.5 (previously -19.7).

Left bloc wins Swedish election narrowly

Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At last Sunday’s election, the left-wing bloc of four parties defeated the right-wing governing bloc of four parties by 176 seats to 173 on overall vote shares of 49.6-48.8; this was a three-seat swing to the left since the 2022 election. There was a late narrowing in the left bloc’s lead in the polls, and a small right-wing party (the Liberals) won 5.3% after they had polled below the 4% threshold for a long time.

The populist right Sweden Democrats were down 3.0% to 17.5% of the vote, their first drop since they became a parliamentary party in 2010. The main centre-left party, the Social Democrats, dropped 2.3% to 28.0%, their worst vote share since 1911.

Brazilian presidential election on October 4 and 25

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. The two main candidates are Workers Party incumbent Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. Seven polls taken since mid-September of a likely runoff range from a 7.3-point Lula lead to a 4.4-point Bolsonaro lead, with an average Lula lead of 0.6 points. Bolsonaro has gained since I last wrote about Brazil in mid-August.

Newspoll: Labor 27, One Nation 30, Coalition 19 (open thread)

A further decline in Anthony Albanese’s already soft personal ratings, as One Nation moves further ahead on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has One Nation widening a primary vote lead by holding steady on 30% while Labor falls two to 27%, and the Coalition and the Greens remain unchanged at 19% and 13% respectively. Anthony Albanese is down two on disapproval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 62%. The one indication Pauline Hanson has been harmed by recent bad press is her personal ratings, with approval down three to 44% and disapproval up three to 51%. Of Angus Taylor we are told only that his net rating has improved from minus 17 to minus 15, but he has almost closed the gap on head-to-head preferred prime minister, on which Albanese’s lead has narrowed from to 44-35 to 42-41. The three-way measure has ­Albanese down two to 44%, Hanson up one to 32% and Taylor up one to 24%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1244.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 29, One Nation 25, Coalition 24 in New South Wales

As the New South Wales state election moves closer into view, Resolve Strategic finds no signs in slackening for One Nation.

The Sydney Morning Herald today reports on the bi-monthly New South Wales state polling numbers from its regular Resolve Strategic series, in a report that does not appear to be online at the time of writing, although the results can be found on the website’s Resolve Monitor feature. This records little change on the previous result, with Labor unchanged at 29%, One Nation unchanged at 25%, the Coalition up a point to 24%, and the Greens unchanged at 11%. With Mike Newman now anointed as One Nation’s prospective parliamentary leader, there is now a three-way preferred premier question which has Chris Minns at 27%, Kellie Sloane at 15% and Newman at 8%, compared with Minns’ 36-16 lead over Sloane two months ago.

The poll combines the New South Wales results from the pollster’s last two monthly national surveys for an overall sample of 1100. The 550 respondents to the more recent monthly survey were asked about the federal-state agreement on tighter gun laws, finding 63% in support with 19% opposed.

Further New South Wales state election news:

• The Australian reported on Tuesday on a poll of 1000 respondents conducted for the Minerals Council of Australia by Insightfully, which had Labor and One Nation each on 29%, with the Coalition on 18% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted August 5 to 12 from a sample of 1000.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reported a fortnight ago that a “recent private poll” in Cessnock, which will be contested for One Nation by leadership hopeful Mike Newman, had One Nation leading Labor by 50% to 24%.

• James Griffin, who succeeded Mike Baird as Liberal member for Manly in 2017, announced a fortnight ago that he will not seek re-election. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports candidates for Liberal preselection could include upper house member Natalie Ward; Adelaide Cuneo, who “works in the energy sector”; and Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Elouise Massa, who has campaigned for a government takeover of Northern Beaches Hospital since failures were identified by a review into the death of her son, will run as an independent.

• A week on from James Griffin’s announcement, Liberal colleague Alister Henskens announced that he too will bow out at the election as the member for one of the party’s safe seats. Henskens entered parliament as the member for Ku-ring-gai in 2015, transferring to the successor seat of Wahroonga after it was abolished in 2023.

• The Byron Shire Echo reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain has won a Labor preselection ballot for the seat of Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.

Federal polling: DemosAU, Morgan, One Nation breakdowns (open thread)

The Coalition takes a big hit in one poll and a smaller one in another, while Roy Morgan offers detail on One Nation support by country of birth.

The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.

The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.

Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.

Victorian polls: RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic

Plus preselection developments and retirement announcements ahead of the November 28 state election.

Two new state poll results for Victoria, with the November 28 election now only a little two months away (and my state election guide on the way shortly):

• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll that as the Coalition down a point to 29%, One Nation up three to 25% (after a four-point dip last time), Labor up a point to 24% and the Greens up a point to 15%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have the Coalition leading Labor 56-44, but Labor leading One Nation 53-47. The poll was conducted September 1 to 14 from a sample of 2371. RedBridge Group’s Kos Samaras offers an exposition on the results and promises more detail to follow.

• Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic series, which is reporting Victorian state results on a monthly basis until the election, records little change on last time, with Labor steady on 25%, the Coalition up a point to 28%, One Nation steady on 23% and the Greens steady on 12%. Jess Wilson is up two on preferred premier to 28%, with Ben Carroll unchanged on 20% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering down two to 8%, leaving an unchanged 44% undecided. Further questions find 49% favouring pausing or cancelling the Suburban Rail Loop, with 27% preferring that it proceed as planned; 35% support for the government’s policy to fund dental care clinics, with 43% favouring its cancellation. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 967.

• There is also a result from Roy Morgan that combines 643 responses from a full year of polling in the Greens-held seats of Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond, which finds the Greens on 41%, Labor on 35%, the Liberals on 14% and One Nation on 2%. The combined result across the three seats in 2022 was Greens 38.7%, Labor 30.6% and Liberal 15.7%.

Other recent election-related news:

• After a long period of holding its fire, One Nation has lately been unveiling lower house candidates on its website. One such is Michael Piastrino, an Albert Park hairdressing salon owner who demonstrated a penchant for Trumpian rhetoric as Liberal candidate for Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave in 2022, who is running against former Liberal leader in Berwick.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports the only nominee to succeed Jacinta Allan as Labor candidate in Bendigo East is Timothy Rickwood, a teacher at Bendigo Senior Secondary College who shares Allan’s alignment with the Socialist Left.

• In Bendigo West, where Labor member Maree Edwards likewise announced last month that she would not seek re-election, the the two nominees for preselection are Brenton Baldwin, a former staffer to Jenny Mikakos, and Toby Heydon, who serves Forest Creek ward on Mount Alexander Shire Council.

• Controversial Liberal-turned-independent upper house MP Moira Deeming has joined Family First and will seek re-election in Western Metropolitan region as its lead candidate.

• David Ettershank, who holds an upper house seat in Western Metropolitan for Legalise Cannabis, has announced he will not seek re-election.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 27, Coalition 24 (open thread)

Weaker personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but little change on voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll.

The latest monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic in Nine Newspapers records little change on voting intention, with Labor steady on 28%, One Nation up one to 27%, the Coalition up one to 24% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three points to 34%, while his poor and very poor rating is steady on 53%; Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 39% and down three to 30%; and Pauline Hanson is respectively up one to 47% and down four to 37%. The now established three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down three to 29%, Taylor up two to 21% and Pauline Hanson down one to 25%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2250; state results for Victoria, and perhaps also New South Wales, should follow over the coming days.

Weekend miscellany: Hastie v Hanson and more (open thread)

Tentative early indications of how the blow-up between Andrew Hastie and One Nation might play out on the political right, plus preselection latest.

Recent items in the news of relevance to a federal election that will presumably be held in early 2028:

• A survey of 1000 prospective One Nation voters conducted recently by former Labor-aligned pollster John Utting and strategist Bruce Hawker was the subject of a comment piece by Peter Hartcher of Nine Newspapers a fortnight ago, which noted that their most favourably viewed public figure after Pauline Hanson was Ben Roberts-Smith, with a favourability approaching 70%. However, another piece by Hartcher today (not yet available online) quotes RedBridge Group pollster Kos Samaras saying his firm’s focus group research suggests “public opinion is siding with Hastie and against Hanson”, on which Samaras further elaborates in a Facebook post.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is pushing for the Country Liberal Party to delay its preselections until next year at its annual convention this weekend, and cites “senior LNP sources” saying she is canvassing support for a move to a seat in south-eastern Queensland, which Price denies. One possibility raised is Forde on Brisbane’s southern fringe, which Labor gained from the LNP at the 2025 election; another is the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff, held for the LNP since 2019 by Angie Bell. The column further quotes a “well-placed source” asking, “why the f… isn’t she running in Solomon?”

• InDaily reports Robert Simms, a Greens member for the South Australian state upper house, will nominate to succeed Barbara Pocock as the party’s lead Senate candidate in the state at the next election. Simms had a previous spell in the Senate from 2015 to 2016, filling a casual vacancy and then failing to win re-election from second position on the party ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The party’s state secretary, Isaac Astill, has also said he will nominate. Pocock announced last month she would not seek re-election, but InDaily reports she will serve out her remaining term.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports suggestions Mark Dreyfus is manoeuvring for Jim Round, former chief-of-staff to Dreyfus and current chief-of-staff to Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino, to succeed him in his seat of Isaacs at the next election. However, another candidate might be Steve Michelson, a former staffer to Bill Shorten. The seat has traditionally been a preserve of Shorten’s Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Right, whereas Round is aligned with the Left.

• A by-election is being held today for seat of Mulka in the Northern Territory parliament, eastern Arnhem Land, following the resignation of Yiŋiya Mark Guyula. It is not being contested by the governing Country Liberal Party, leaving two candidates: Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath, described by the ABC as a “nurse and Yolŋu man from remote Elcho Island”, and independent Andrew Blamey, an East Arnhem Regional Council library program assistant.

YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another strong poll result for One Nation in the wake of its Secret Harbour by-election triumph.

The fortnightly YouGov/News24 Pulse poll finds One Nation returning to its June peak, the Coalition only one point up on where it was at the time, and Labor three points lower for its equal worst result of the term. Labor is down three on last fortnight to 26%, with One Nation up four to 30%, the Coalition down three to 18% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and its lead over the Coalition is in from 53-47 to 52-48.

Movements on leaders’ ratings are rather more modest: Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 36% and steady on 59% disapproval; Angus Taylor is up three to 36% and down one to 48%; Albanese’s lead over Taylor is in from 44-37 to 43-39; and his lead over Hanson is in from 52-37 to 51-40. Questions on immigration including a finding that 36% think One Nation would be best to manage it, compared with 18% each for Labor and the Coalition. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1510.

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