Farrer by-election live

Live results and commentary on the count the federal by-election for Farrer.
Projected 3CP Projected 2CP Win Probability

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End of evening

Writing in advance of last week’s Nepean state by-election in Victoria, I noted that the share of an electorate’s population that was over 18 and had no educational qualifications beyond high school was a highly useful predictor of One Nation support at the South Australian election in March: the specific formula being 0.543 – 0.555x. That formula suggested One Nation would score 26.6% in Nepean and 31.9% in Farrer, whereas the actual results were 24.5% and (on current counting) 39.4%. In both cases One Nation enjoyed the benefit of a forfeit by Labor, whose vote shares at the previous election were and 32.6% and 15.1% respectively. Clearly then Farrer was a stronger result for One Nation than Nepean, and can also be considered above the par of the South Australian result. Two factors likely explain the relatively weak result in Nepean: a less vigorous One Nation campaign and a state Liberal Party in better electoral shape than its counterparts federally and in South Australia.

Another two random observations. First, turnout appears to be on track for around 86%, where the by-election norm is more like 82%. This raises the possibility that One Nation’s surge has enthused previously disengaged voters. Secondly, as I noted during the count, Coalition preferences look to have split about 60-40 in favour of One Nation over Michelle Milthorpe, which is quite a lot stronger for Milthorpe than I would have guessed — about the same as in the independent-versus-One Nation contest for Stuart at the South Australian election, where the independent (Geoff Brock) would seemingly have been more attractive to conservative voters than one who has struggled to shake off the “teal” tag (with how-to-vote cards favouring One Nation in both cases). One possibility is that Liberal and Nationals efforts to tar David Farley with the Labor brush (which “brought 1996 attack ads to a 2026 realignment”, in the estimation of Kos Samaras) had an impact on the voters who remained loyal to them, while failing entirely to entice defectors back into the fold.

Election night commentary

12.15pm. I believe we’re done for the evening, with all booths reported on both the primary and TCP apart from the oddity of the electronic assisted voting result. Late counting will mostly be postals and a small number of provisionals, neither of which are likely to change a One Nation margin that reduced from 9.4% and 7.3% when the big pre-poll booths reported at the very end of the evening.

11.05pm. All but two pre-poll booths are in, recent additions including the Albury pre-poll with nearly 12,000 formal votes, which will knock a point or two off the current raw 59.5% One Nation vote when it reports on two-candidate preferred.

10.24pm. The Griffith pre-poll voting centre becomes the largest booth to report so far with 6582 votes, and it too is a bit below par for One Nation.

10.10pm. The Leeton pre-poll voting centre has provided the first substantial new numbers in over an hour, other than a few special hospital results. Its 2794 votes are a bit above par for Milthorpe and a bit below for One Nation.

8.55pm. The election day booth count is pretty much completed, not counting special hospital and remote mobile results that probably aren’t getting done tonight. However, pre-poll voting centres that collectively accounted for over 38,000 votes are yet to come through, and should in theory do so tonight, though larger centres (Albury pre-poll centre had 12,586 votes) sometimes don’t report until the following day.

8.40pm. My projection and the published TCP result have settled at around 58-42, meaning One Nation have achieved a slightly bigger win over Michelle Milthorpe than Sussan Ley. One Nation are doing at least as well on pre-polls as on election day votes; the postals that are in are stronger for Liberal and weaker for One Nation than the remainder, but about the same on the One Nation-versus-Milthorpe two-candidate count.

8.18pm. David Farley and One Nation are claiming victory. If you’re enjoying my coverage — which among other things provides the only place where you can easily observe the booth results — please consider a tip through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of the post. The results feature in particular involves a lot of work and actually costs money to run, at least in months where the mapping goes over the Google bandwidth limit (as it did very handily in the month of the South Australian election).

8.09pm. This seems a particularly bad result for the Liberals, whose primary vote — barely into double figures — is only slightly shading the Nationals, whose weak showing is less of a surprise. This is never good territory for the Greens, but it may be noted that their vote share is down more than half even in the absence of a Labor candidate. Right-wing small parties are collectively down by around half as One Nation sucks out their oxygen.

8.03pm. Around two thirds of the booths are now in on the primary vote, which includes two of the 12 pre-poll voting centres, both from rural areas. One of which is a little better for One Nation than the local election day booth, the other a little worse. I remain surprised by the evenness of preferences — the estimates I was using at the very start of the count would have allocated about 65% of these preferences, nearly 80% of which are coming from parties of the right, to One Nation. Currently it looks more like 55%.

7.35pm. I’ve just farewelled myself from Ben Raue’s live webcast, which ended with us both concurring that One Nation had gained the seat. My results system had in fact done so nearly half-an-hour earlier, but as noted, it was always my feeling that it was going to go too hard too early for One Nation. Now though we have enough booths in from Albury that it seems that Michelle Milthorpe will at best equal her result there from 2025 against Sussan Ley, and perhaps go backwards slightly, when she needs to be winning these booths big to redress rural booths that are in some cases going against her by upwards of 80-20. The one glimmer for her as I noted was that she seems to be doing better than expected on Liberal and Nationals preferences, but as those parties are only accounting for about 20% of the vote between them, this doesn’t decisively change the overall pictures.

6.30pm. We have a booth in, which is Rankin Springs in the electorate’s north. The good news is that my results system is functioning, the bad news is that it’s been too aggressive too early, so don’t take the “probability” reading too seriously until some real numbers are in.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Farrer by-election. From 6:30pm to 7:30pm I will be appearing on a live webcast hosted by Ben Raue of The Tally Room, so I probably won’t have much to offer in the way of commentary during that period, which will start at around the time the first results are in. We can expect that to happen quite quickly as this is a largely rural electorate with many of the 94 booths (including remote mobile and multiple special hospital booths) dealing with perhaps as few as 150 votes that won’t take long to count. On the other hand, the fact that there are 12 candidates will slow things up at least somewhat.

First, some insight into what my results facility is trying to achieve here. The two-candidate preferred result from the 2025 election was Liberal-versus-Michelle Milthorpe, which few expect to be repeated this time, including the AEC who are conducting a One Nation-versus-Milthorpe count, in line with what is generally expected to be the result. That means there is no historic data to work off in projecting swings in two-party terms. However, my own system is more concerned with projecting off the primary vote, and then filling the gap with an estimate of preference flows. These will be entirely estimated for the early part of the count, and will then switch to the flow indicated by the two-candidate count when enough of it has been conducted.

I am a little wary that my system will be too aggressive in calling it for One Nation based on the first results, which will be from rural areas where One Nation will be especially strong. This becomes troublesome for projection (at least the way I do it) when we have a paradigm shift of a result. The primary vote swing to One Nation in the early booths seems likely to be extremely high, and applying that swing to the final result from 2025 may serve to overestimate them. When larger booths come in from bigger population centres, notably Albury, the One Nation swing may come down, and with it the projected result. In other words, there’s a good chance my system will be calling it for One Nation quicker than I’d like to. If betting markets are on the money, this will ultimately be academic: Betfair is offering $1.10 on a One Nation win, $6.20 for Milthorpe, $10 for the Liberals and $20 for the Nationals.

Welsh and Scottish elections live

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections occur today, as well as English local elections. Plus further updates on gerrymandering in the US.

Live Commentary

10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).

12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.

11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.

11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.

10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.

7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.

6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.

6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).

11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.

11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).

11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.

9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.

9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.

9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.

8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.

8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).

4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.

4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.

3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).

3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).

While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.

In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.

2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.

1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.

1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.

1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).

11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.

11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.

10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).

10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).

9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.

9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.

9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am Friday AEST for Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the first-past-the-post seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 29.8%, followed by the populist right Reform at 27.5%, Labour 14.1%, the Conservatives 10.2%, the Greens 9.4% and the Liberal Democrats 5.7%. Seat projections give Plaid 37 seats, Reform 34, Labour 13, the Conservatives six, the Greens five and the Lib Dems one. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that dominate FPTP seats win few list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 36.1% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 18.2% for Labour, 17.7% Reform, 11.4% Conservatives, 11.0% Lib Dems and 3.2% Greens. In list seats, the Greens have 13.7% and the SNP 28.0%. Seat projections give the SNP 56, Reform 19, Labour 17, the Greens 14, the Conservatives 12 and the Lib Dems 11. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

A total of 5,066 coucillors will be up for election in England today. The large majority of councillors were last elected at the 2022 local elections. At those elections, Labour won the Projected National Share (PNS) by 35-30 over the Conservatives with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS calculates a national vote share for council elections. At the 2025 local elections, the PNS was 30% Reform, 20% Labour, 17% Lib Dems, 15% Conservatives and 11% Greens.

Current national vote shares are 26.8% Reform, 18.7% Labour, 18.4% Conservatives, 15.5% Greens and 11.7% Lib Dems. If these vote shares occur at the local elections, Reform and the Greens will gain massively at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives.

Some results from the local elections will be available Friday morning AEST. The large majority of results from England, Wales and Scotland should be in by Saturday morning. Since my April 27 preview of these elections, polls have moved slightly towards Reform.

US updates

In gerrymandering news, Florida’s legislature has passed new maps that may help Republicans gain four seats for a 24-4 Republican split of Florida’s 28 federal House seats. However, this gerrymander may put Republican seats in danger. It’s also subject to legal challenges.

On April 30, the US Supreme Court issued a ruling that will let southern states scrap their Black majority districts. These districts are Democratic bastions in otherwise solidly Republican states. Democrats are likely to respond by diluting Black votes in states which they control – Nate Silver has analysis of how this would work.

With this decision coming six months before the November midterm elections, it will be much more important in 2028 gerrymandering than 2026, although Louisiana postponed its May 16 primary so it can redraw boundaries to scrap at least one Democratic seat.

California will hold a jungle primary on June 2. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. Since Democrat Swalwell dropped out, Democrat Becerra has surged from 3.9% to 14.6% in the Fiftyplusone aggregate. There’s still a faint possibility that Republicans Hilton and Bianco both make the runoff, but Becerra and Democrat Steyer are just ahead of Bianco.

Bulgarian election

The 240 Bulgarian MPs are elected using 31 multi-member electorates by proportional representation with a national 4% threshold. There had been seven elections since April 2021. At the April 19 election, the new left-wing populist but somewhat pro-Russia Progressive Bulgaria (PB) won 44.6% of the vote and 131 seats, above the 121 needed for a majority. Nearly 20% was cast for parties that failed to meet the threshold, helping PB to its majority.

Farrer by-election minus two days

A summary of campaign developments ahead of Saturday’s Farrer by-election, where an emerging consensus has One Nation’s David Farley as the front-runner.

Two days to go until the Farrer by-election, which as always is the subject of a Poll Bludger election guide and will be covered here on election night and beyond with live results and projections (see the Nepean results page for an idea of how that will look) and attendant commentary.

The only opinion poll to have emerged during the campaign came from independent Michelle Milthorpe’s camp, and in showing her almost level with One Nation candidate David Farley on the primary vote it suggested she was not quite where she needed to be, given that Liberal and Nationals preferences will assuredly favour Farley. As for the Coalition’s own prospects, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column spoke last week of “anecdotal reports” of Liberal polling that put its support “in the low teens and falling”, while former Nationals leader David Littleproud said in March that he expected the party to finish last (which he presumably meant out of Farley, Milthorpe and the Liberals).

A Liberal source quoted by Sky News struck a still more encouraging note for Farley in saying he would win “even without preferences from the Coalition”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals’ decision to favour Farley over Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards has “Labor hardheads stumped”, given the imperative for the Coalition to deny One Nation a foothold in the lower house. In her column in Nine Newspapers today, Niki Savva notes two explanations: that conservatives in both parliament and the party membership “would have gone nuclear” if they did not favour One Nation (also the view of Campbell’s Liberal sources), and that Milthorpe once elected would prove impossible to dislodge, “whereas One Nation MPs tend to implode and quit”.

For all the high expectations surrounding his prospects, Farley has had a troubled campaign. Reports over the past few weeks have noted he made a donation to Milthorpe’s campaign for the 2025 election, describing her at the time as a “straight shooter”, and had expressed interest in running as a Labor candidate at the 2022 election. Farley has departed from key points of his party’s script, telling a candidates’ debate last week that the number of migrants coming to Australia was “not too high”, and saying one advantage of better economic management would be in allowing for “more generous” foreign aid.

For her part, Michelle Milthorpe has sought to distance herself from the “teal” label, invoking as her model Cathy McGowan and her successor Helen Haines, independent members for Indi on the other side of the Victorian border. Milthorpe told The Australian earlier this week that net zero by 2050 was “untenable”, that coal and gas must “play their part”, and that Australia should consider opening more oil refineries. The Australian last week reported that Milthorpe’s claim that Climate 200 had provided only 2% of her campaign funding was complicated by the $60,000 she has received from Regional Voices Fund, whose donors largely overlap with Climate 200’s. She has also indirectly benefited from the more than $500,000 raised by progressive campaign group GetUp! to target One Nation during the campaign.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly YouGov poll for Sky News reports improvements in Labor’s primary vote and Anthony Albanese’s personal standing.

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up three points to 30%, the Coalition up one to 21%, One Nation down three to 24% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is unchanged at 54-46, but is much improved against One Nation at 57-43, out from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor is steady on 38% and down one to 42%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 45-36, and his lead over Pauline Hanson is out from 50-39 to 54-35. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample size unspecified in the report, which was likely around 1100 (UPDATE: It was actually 1500, as is typical for this series).

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor steady at 29.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down one to 21.5% and the Greens down one to 13%. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is unchanged at 54.5-45.5, while its lead on previous election preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1681.

South Australian election resolution

Just one day before parliament resumes, an official result for the Legislative Council finalises South Australia’s momentous state election.

The South Australian election finally concludes today with the resolution of the Legislative Council count, just one day before the resumption of parliament. It does not appear to be in doubt that this will result in the election of five Labor, three One Nation, two Liberal and one Greens member, to add to the five Labor, four Liberal, one Greens and one One Nation-turned-independent members elected in 2022.

The lower house outcome of 34 seats for Labor, five for Liberal, four for One Nation and four independents has resulted in contention over which party should be granted official opposition status. Normally the Liberals’ superior seat count would decide the matter, but One Nation has claimed a moral right based on its higher vote share and the number of seats in which it reached the final preference count. More concretely, it has sought backing from independents, while reportedly also targeting potential Liberal defectors. The legalities of the matter are rather fuzzy, at least from my perspective – when a party defection in Western Australia put the Nationals and Liberals at parity on three seats each in 2023, it was a relevant consideration that the Labor Speaker favoured the status quo. Barring any firm commitments from independents, of which there are have been none that I’m aware of, it is presumably relevant that Peter Malinauskas says he has been “working under the assumption that (Liberal leader) Ashton Hurn is Leader of the Opposition”.

The tardiness of the upper house count is one of a number of concerns that inspired the government to appoint the former federal Electoral Commissioner, Tom Rogers, to head an independent review. Most notable was the failure of 642 out-of-district votes cast in the regional electorate of Stuart to be sent on as required to be counted in the seat for which they were cast, which was not discovered until after the results had been declared. The 81 votes cast for Narungga were examined to check if they provided a basis for One Nation’s 58-vote win to be voided, and it was found they would have increased the margin by 14 votes. A week later, the Electoral Commission revealed further uncounted votes had been found for Enfield and Newland without offering further details, though Attorney-General Kyam Maher said their number was “in the order of dozens”.

The close contest for Narungga was again in the spotlight after it emerged a One Nation volunteer had been allowed to count votes at an understaffed booth in Port Clinton, and that a community member enlisted ad hoc to tick people off the roll had allegedly failed to initial ballots as required, resulting in them being counted as informal. However, the Liberal Party has provided no indication it might challenge the result.

Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Freshwater Strategy (open thread)

Two similar sets of voting intention numbers, and an improved result for the government on its handling of the fuel crisis.

Two new federal poll results:

• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group poll that finds the Coalition recovering from what was perhaps a too-bad-to-be-true result last month, with Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up five to 22%, One Nation down two to 27% and the Greens steady on 13%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor leading the Coalition by 54-46 and One Nation by 55-45 (in each case compared with 53-47 last time). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese at 33%, Pauline Hanson at 23% and Angus Taylor floundering at 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are improved by five points in net terms, with his approval rating at 34% and disapproval at 43%. Angus Taylor is up one to minus two, Pauline Hanson down two to minus one, Matt Canavan up one to minus two, Larissa Waters down two to minus four, Chris Bowen down two to minus 16, and Donald Trump down three to minus 58. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.

• The Sunday News Corp papers had a Freshwater Strategy poll with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 25% and the Greens on 12% — numbers identical to the last such poll a month ago. Anthony Albanese leads Angus Taylor by 44-38 on preferred prime minister. Net approval ratings are plus 10 for Angus Taylor, plus four for Matt Canavan, plus five for Pauline Hanson (down five), and minus nine for Albanese. The poll found 30% would be more likely and 24% less likely to vote One Nation if it entered a coalition with the Liberals and Nationals, while 34% would be more likely and 27% less likely to vote for the Liberals or Nationals. The poll also shows a marked improvement for the government on its response to fuel prices, with 31% now satisfied, up from 17% in last month’s poll, and 47% dissatisfied, down from 59%. Thirty-three per cent said they were satisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war, up three, with dissatisfaction at 37%, up four. The government’s announcement of cuts to the NDIS had 47% supportive and 25% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware and 31% not aware. Considerable further detail should follow reasonably shortly on the pollster’s website.

Nepean by-election live

Live results and commentary on the count the Victorian state by-election for Nepean.
Projected 3CP Projected 2CP Win Probability

Click here for full display of Nepean by-election results

End of evening. Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh has a 13.5% margin over independent Tracee Hutchison, assuming the latter does indeed make the final count over One Nation’s Darren Hercus, which my system projects her as doing by 30.8% to 28.3% based on preference estimates. Marsh’s final margin over Hercus would likely be very similar. How pleased the Liberals should be about this depends on your starting assumptions: the party would have been appalled if told about such a result a year ago, but in the more immediate time frame would be greatly relieved. It suggests One Nation’s competitiveness in November should be limited to deep rural seats, and shortens the odds on the Coalition translating what seems at present to be a slender polling lead into a parliamentary majority.

10.35pm. The 14,000 vote block of early votes that came in on the primary vote about two hours ago are now in on TCP, which I suspect wraps things up for the evening.

9.45pm. Postals, which were heavily favourable to Liberal, have reported on the TCP, which has blown out the Liberal margin over Hutchison from 9.0% to 13.4%.

9.15pm. The last and largest election day booth, Rosebud, has reported on the primary vote, and I’m less certain now that Tracee Hutchison will get ahead of One Nation on preferences, that latter’s first preference lead now being at 24.7% to 21.3%. The outcome at the final count, to be clear, will be a Liberal win either way.

8.55pm. The latest ten-minute update had TCP results from Dromana Beach and the earlier batch of early votes.

8.47pm. A huge chunk of early votes — nearly 14,000 — just reported on the primary vote. This presumably included the voting centre in Rosebud, which presumably did a lot of business, because it’s substantially lifted the One Nation vote compared with the 2645 votes from the first early voting batch. The Liberal vote has dipped below 40%, and One Nation has a primary vote lead over Tracee Hutchison that looks big enough to be maintained, but not enough to stop them being overtaken when Greens preferences are distributed.

8.26pm. We’ve now got 5531 postal votes plus a primary vote result from Red Hill. The Liberals have topped 50% of the primary vote on the postals, and done well enough in Red Hill. One Nation’s Darren Hercus has now edged ahead of Tracee Hutchison on first preferences, though Greens preferences should push the latter ahead of the former, while Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh is sitting pretty on over 40%.

8.16pm. Five booths have just landed on the primary vote, including strong results for One Nation at Dromana Beach, Rosebud West and Tootgarook and weak ones at Sorrento and Shoreham. The gap between Tracee Hutchison and One Nation has as expected narrowed, now at 23.8% to 21.2%, but Hutchison seems assured to remain ahead on Greens preferences (in which case, hats off to the VEC for picking the right candidates for its two-candidate count). Either way, the 36.6% Liberal primary vote looks insurmountable.

8.06pm. My results system, which is more aggressive than it used to be, is now projecting a win for the Liberals after a very strong result for them on early votes: 45.5% out of 2645 added, compared with just 16.4% for One Nation, who have fallen below 20%. I should add a note of caution though: these early votes are likely either or both of the two voting centres from the Sorrento end, and the polling booths too under-represent what are likely to be the strongest areas for One Nation. Even so, we’re at a point in the count where One Nation would have to be doing a lot better than the current raw primary vote numbers (Liberal 37.8%, independent 25.0%, One Nation 19.8%) if they were going to be competitive, and it’s clear from the two-candidate count that Hutchison will not be competitive in the final count.

7.56pm. The regular ten-minute update brings only two further TCP results, which only serve to confirm that Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh will prevail comfortably in a two-candidate count against Hutchison. The alternative possibility is that Hutchison will land third and Marsh will go up against One Nation, in which case it’s no easier to see how Marsh loses.

7.47pm. The small Boneo booth, with 388 votes, has reported at the modest end for One Nation with 19.1%. Two booths are in on the two-candidate the VEC is conducting between Liberal and Tracee Hutchison, which may prove to have been the right candidate pairing after all. They are breaking nearly 60-40 in favour of Liberal, suggesting they are heading for a comfortable win unless One Nation has a surge in store from somewhere or other.

7.37pm. The Dromana and Flinders booths are now in on the primary vote, and the former is as anticipated better for One Nation, who have edged out the Liberals there by 29.5% to 29.1%. Flinders on the other hand has stayed loyal to Liberal, with One Nation not even making double figures. My system is writing off One Nation’s chances of making the final count, but I’m less confident about that than I normally would be because One Nation didn’t run here in 2022, meaning there is no historic data for them. Some strong results for One Nation in the Rosebud booths could change things, but they would have to be particularly good for them. The other unknown is how early votes are behaving.

7:25pm. A third booth, Waterfall Gully, is in on the primary vote. This is a better area for One Nation, who have polled 27.2% there compared with 20.6% in the first two booths. Even here though the gap is narrow, with Hutchison on 23.7% and set to benefit from the 12.9% vote for the Greens. Unless One Nation do quite a bit better around Rosebud and Dromana, they will finish third and their preferences decide the result, presumably in favour of the Liberals.

7:17pm. We have primary booth results in from Blairgowrie and Rye, both at the weak end of the electorate for One Nation, who trail Tracee Hutchison for second by 24.0% to 20.6%. My system is presently projecting that order will remain after preferences, but it’s doing so with no historic sense of the spread of One Nation support. No doubt correctly, it’s projecting the Liberals as more likely to win than Hutchison after the distribution of One Nation preferences.

6:10pm. It appears from the Victorian Electoral Commission results page that the indicative two-candidate preferred count will be between Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh and independent Tracee Hutchison, and not One Nation candidate Darren Hercus as I would have assumed.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Victorian state by-election for Nepean. I will also be following the count for the Tasmanian upper house seats of Huon and Rosevears as updates on the dedicated post. The Victorian Electoral Commission advises we should not expect results until “approximately 7:30pm”. Counting of early and postal votes will take place this evening, as well as election day votes. Results will be updated every 10 minutes. The VEC does not break out its early voting results by location (it will rectify this at the general election in November), so the substantial number of votes that appear under “Early” will be a mixed bag of result Rosebud and Dromana, where One Nation is likely to poll well, and Blairgowrie, where they should be relatively weak.

Tasmanian upper house elections: Huon and Rosevears

One Liberal and one independent incumbent are defending Tasmanian upper house seats in today’s annual periodic elections.

Live commentary

9.30pm. I spoke too soon, as further pre-polls have been added, and they have pushed Jo Palmer up to 42.7% in Rosevears. I’m inclined to think that will be enough, unless the independent’s preferences are radically unfavourable to her.

8.20pm. I believe we may have had all the counting done for the night, and my reading of the situation is that Clare Glade-Wright is likely to unseat Dean Harriss in Huon, with preferences from Labor and the Greens accounting for the latter’s 30.5% to 27.2% lead on first preferences; while Rosevears should be a close race between Liberal incumbent Jo Palmer and Labor’s Ben McKinnon, with the former’s lead of 41.8% to 25.0% needing to hold up against a 17.4% Greens vote that will overwhelmingly favour Labor. That won’t of itself be enough though, which means the matter is in the hands of preferences from independent Susan Monson, who is on 15.8%, on which I can offer no guidance.

7.30pm. The Nepean count will be dominating by attention henceforth, but I notice the pendulum has swung back in favour of Jo Palmer with all but four booths reporting from Rosevears, giving her a 42.3% first preference vote share that will be difficult for Labor (who now have a fairly solid buffer in second place) to overhaul on preferences.

7.15pm. The Franklin booth in Huon provides a weak result for Dean Harriss, pushing him below 30%. In Rosevears, I spoke too soon in suggesting the Greens candidate would be first out, as they have now pulled ahead of independent Susan Monson. There is little to separate the three, but enough to suggest Monson makes the final count, which would be the worst case scenario for the Liberals.

7.10pm. Another large booth, Sandfly, has given Harriss and Glade-Wright equal shares of the primary vote, which likely means favouring Glade-Wright after preferences.

7.05pm. Dean Harriss has had a much better result for the Ranelagh booth, which provides 822 out of 1978 votes counted, pushing him to a lead over Glade-Wright of 675 (34.1%) to 507 (25.6%), giving him some hope of holding out against the coming preference tide.

7.00pm. A bad result for the Liberals from the Beauty Point booth reduces Jo Palmer to 631 out of 1491 (42.3%), and it now looks clear that the Greens will come fourth. I presume their preferences will push Labor clear of independent Susan Monson, with whom they are all but tied on first preferences, setting up a close result between Liberal and Labor after preferences. Six from 22 booths in from Huon and Clare Glade-Wright is maintaining a slight lead over Dean Harriss on first preferences. This seemingly bodes ill for Harriss, who is noted as a conservative and has to contend with nearly 30% of the vote being first preferences for Labor and the Greens.

6.55pm. A further booth in Huon and two more in Rosevears have been good for the Liberals: Jo Palmer in Rosevears has 483 votes out of 1047 (46.1%), which will be enough for her if she can maintain it, while the gap in Huon is down to four votes, though Glade-Wright will presumably enjoy ample preferences from Labor and the Greens, who have about 28% of the vote between them.

6.45pm. Two booths in from Rosevears have Liberal incumbent Jo Palmer in the lead with 251 votes out of 584 (43.0%) and the other candidates reasonably matched. Voters are required to number at least three candidates, which amounts to full compulsory preferences when there are only four candidates, and Labor and Greens preferences can be expected to flow strongly to each other. Independent Susan Monson’s preferences will presumably be less unfavourable to the Liberals, who will be hoping she doesn’t make the final count.

6.35pm. Three booths in from Huon, and they’re encouraging for independent challenger Clare Glade-Wright, who leads independent incumbent Dean Harriss by 133 (36.5%) to 88 (24.2%). However, these are small booths from far-flung parts of the electorate: things may be different, in one way or another, in the urban territory around Kingston.

Overview

With the first Saturday of May comes Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections, in which either two or three of the chamber’s 15 seats go up for election over a six-year cycle. The detachment of this process from lower house general elections is conducive to the election of independents, particularly outside Hobart, and the current numbers in the chamber are three each for Liberal and Labor, one for the Greens and eight independents. Up for election this time are Huon, covering the area south of Hobart inclusive of the metropolitan fringe centre of Kingston, which is held by independent Dean Harriss; and Rosevears, encompassing the western part of Launceston inclusive of the town centre and Tamar Valley territory to the north, which is held for the Liberals by Rockliff government Education Minister Jo Palmer.

Both seats are being defended by their incumbents, who tend to be difficult to dislodge at these elections. Dean Harriss won Huon at a by-election in 2022 after the resignation of Labor member Bastian Seidel, recording a 2.5% winning margin over the Labor candidate. His father, Paul Harriss, held the seat as an independent from 1996 to 2014 and later served as a Liberal in the lower house division of Franklin from 2014 to 2016, which presumably has an indirect relationship to the fact that the Liberals are not fielding a candidate at the current election. Harriss’s competition consists of Labor candidate Abby McKibben, Greens candidate Paul Gibson and three independents. The most high-profile of the latter is Kingborough deputy mayor Clare Glade-Wright, who is endorsed by the Voices for Franklin community group and lower house independent Peter George.

Jo Palmer gained Rosevears for the Liberals in 2020 upon the retirement of independent Kerry Finch, securing a 260-vote winning margin over independent Janie Finlay, who made her way to parliament a year later as a Labor member for Bass. Palmer faces competition from Labor candidate Ben McKinnon, Greens candidate Charlene McLennan and a seemingly low-profile independent, Susan Monson.