The Courier Mail today provides the final TNS Global poll for the campaign (Newspoll presumably to follow tomorrow) and it has fortified the Poll Bludger in most of his earlier convictions. Once again the results are frustratingly incomplete – we are given a statewide two-party preferred split of 58-42 and told that on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, Labor’s vote has risen during the campaign by 8 per cent to 45 while the Liberals have fallen 7 per cent to 14. Thus have Labor’s odds firmed in Noosa, Burleigh, Broadwater and Kawana. Liberal factional warlords apparently agree with this assessment as they are reportedly preparing to heap all the blame for the outcome on poor old Bob Quinn. In fact the results are bad enough to bring into contention the Gold Coast hinterland seat of Beaudesert, held by National Party stalwart Kev Lingard with a margin of 2 per cent.
There are a couple of other seats being mentioned which didn’t enter the Poll Bludger’s earlier calculations. The Courier Mail yesterday reported that Labor is "creating a scare" in the outback seat of Warrego, but given that their 16.3 per cent vote last time was presumably a career-best performance it’s hard to see how this is possible. Also out of left field, there is some talk that the gap in quality between the candidates on offer in Ipswich West may make this a freak Liberal gain from Labor.
On firmer ground, Peter Krumins (see the post below) has made the Poll Bludger see reason with regard to a third seat, the conclusion being that One Nation’s Rosa Lee Long will indeed be re-elected in Tablelands. Here the combined 2001 vote for One Nation and their former MP-turned-independent Shaun Nelson was 51 per cent compared with 25 per cent for Labor and only 16 per cent for the Nationals. With only three candidates in the field this time, it’s very difficult to distribute the available votes in a way that has a major party candidate winning. So with one day to go, the Poll Bludger’s projected outcome is as follows: Labor 66, Nationals 14, Liberal 4, independents 4, One Nation 1.
