8.05pm. I suppose I should point out that Labor’s vote has fallen from 71.3 per cent at last year’s election, but that was a two-horse race. The two-party result is 68.7-31.3 (with Japanangka in second place), a remarkably modest swing of 2.6 per cent.
7.45pm. Wow, results – all at once. As expected, Karl Hampton has won easily. With all the booth results in, he is on 1123 votes for 58.2 per cent of the total. In second place is former Labor MP Gary Cartwright with 14.6 per cent. Of the two CLP candidates, Rex Granites Japanangka is outpolling Lloyd Spencer-Nelson 11.1 per cent to 7.8 per cent; of the independents, Anna Machado is on 7.1 per cent and the reluctant Peter Tjungarray Wilson on just 23 (1.2 per cent).
7.33pm. The NTEO seem to be dragging their heels.
1pm. Not sure how big an audience I’ll attract, but a half-hearted attempt at live-blogging the Stuart by-election count will begin at 6pm Northern Territory time. The count will not be a particularly exciting process, as the entirely remote electorate is served exclusively by mobile booths. Turnout at last year’s election was only 59 per cent (for a total of just 2535 votes) and will presumably be lower still this time. Discontent with the Martin goverment’s indigenous policies should theoretically make the election of interest, but by all accounts the issue will be decided by Labor’s organisational strength in Aboriginal communities. They have also chosen a good candidate – as well as being an indigenous adviser in the Office of Central Australia, Karl Hampton is the coach of the Central Australian Football League club the Pioneers. The CLP seems to have adopted a tactic of clogging the ballot paper with both official and unofficial candidates in the hope of at least embarrassing Labor by suppressing their primary vote. The official candidates are Rex Granites and Lloyd Spencer, described by the Northern Territory News as "Walpiri men with strong cultural links in different areas of the electorate". The independents include Anna de Sousa Machado, who was the CLP candidate at last year’s election; Gary Cartwright, the former Labor member for Victoria River (which became the new electorate of Daly in a redistribution that deprived him of his strongest areas) who is directing preferences to the CLP; and Peter Tjungarray Wilson, who told the ABC he "hates politics and is only running to support fellow candidate Anna Machado".
Some (all??) results in.
Slight primary majority for Labor.
Cartwright doing the next best. But Japanangka should make the run-off if the CLP vote combines.
Just to correct myself. 1123 / 1929 = 58% isn’t slight at all.
Although it is down on a primary vote of 70% in 2004.
Looks like its only pre-poll, postal & declaration votes to come.
And I’ll correct myself again… It was a 71% ALP primary vote in a two candidate contest. And of course the year was 2005.
Pre-polls are in now.
Their 2-candidate preferred count has Hampton 68.7% Japanangka 31.3%.
So not much swing at all.
Whoops. I’m kinda echoing PB now.
Hard to find much points of interest. The increase from two candidates to six candidates on the ballot paper has nearly tripled the informal vote. Up from 4.6% to 13.4%
The ABC and news.com.au suggest there was a 10% swing to the CLP with the 2PP ALP vote around 62%.
What tiny electorates!
Regarding the discrepancy between my figures and those quoted elsewhere: the NTEO has produced a notional two-candidate count for Hampton vs Japanangka, which is the figure I have been quoting. But this might be based on an incorrect guess about who would finish second, and it may be that those in the know expect Gary Cartwright to stay in second place and ultimately get about 40 per cent of the 2CP vote. But Cartwright is not a CLP candidate – as far as the two-party contest is concerned, the Hampton vs Japanangka figure is still the one of interest. Not that much should be read into it – it’s not exactly the type of seat that decides election outcomes.