Channel Nine has given details of the final Roy Morgan poll of the campaign: Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, but trails 39 per cent to the Coalition’s 41 per cent on the primary vote. The Greens are on 12 per cent, which is remarkably consistent with other agencies’ findings, while Family First is on 3.5 per cent. Laurie Oakes tells Nine viewers he "wouldn’t be surprised" if the Greens won two lower house seats, "or even three".
UPDATE: Full details here.
UPDATE II: Speaking on the ABC’s Stateline program, Paul Austin of The Age has just said their poll tomorrow will show the race is “perhaps a bit closer than some people might have thought”.
4.8% swing then according to Morgan
Uniform = 11 seats to the Liberals
My final prediction
LIB Gain (12)
Evelyn
Hastings
Gembrook
Kilsyth
Ferntree Gully
Mount Waverley
Bayswater
Eltham
Morwell
South Barwon
Burwood
Mitcham
GRN Gain (1)
Melbourne
Nothing else changes
Final
ALP 49
LIB 29
NP 7
IND 2
GRN 1
The big thing for me will be to see what % swings happen in the seats in the 5.8-9.7% ALP range, the Libs need 4-5% in all those to setup for 2010
Upper House way too complicated and my abacus is broken
Interesting to note on the detailed story about the Morgan Poll, they are suggesting that Family First may end up holding the balance of power in the Upper House with a possible breakdown of –
ALP 17
Liberal 16
National 3
Green 3
Family First 1
Family fiest will not win any seat. I would like to know under what circumstances this claim is made. I have not seen them come up on any of my analysis. It’s one thing to say they will win but another to not say how or where.
My predictions
ALP returned
Greens to win Melbourne
Liberals to gain
Hastings
Bayswater
Mt Waverly
Ferntree Gully
South Barwon
Kilsyth
Gembrook
Rippon
Everlyn
Seats to close to call
Burwood
Mitcham
Forrest Hill
Frankston
Prahran
Seymour
Eltham
Narracan
Morwell
Bellarine
Richmond
Mornington
Box Hill
Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch
These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote
Bayswater
Hastings
Mitcham
Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates
Narrie Warren North
Narrie Warren South
Cranbourne
Hastings
Yan Yean
Melton
Eltham
Yuroke
Tarneit
My predictions
ALP returned
Greens to win Melbourne
Liberals to gain
Hastings
Bayswater
Mt Waverly
Ferntree Gully
South Barwon
Kilsyth
Gembrook
Rippon
Everlyn
Seats to close to call
Burwood
Mitcham
Forrest Hill
Frankston
Prahran
Seymour
Eltham
Narracan
Morwell
Bellarine
Bentleigh
Mordallioc
Richmond
Mornington
Box Hill
Bass
South Coast
Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch
These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote
Bayswater
Hastings
Mitcham
Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates
Narrie Warren North
Narrie Warren South
Cranbourne
Hastings
Yan Yean
Melton
Eltham
Yuroke
Tarneit