Commenters at the business end of the country inform me, via Lateline, that tomorrow’s Newspoll will be as you see in the headline (after a 56-44 result a fortnight ago). It is against my religion to read anything into one poll in isolation. Nonetheless, I am tempted to interpret this as the interest rate hike being cancelled out by what Matt Price describes as the government’s “potentially quite good bad news”, namely last week’s stock market dive.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 44-39 to 46-39.
UPDATE 2: The Australian reports Labor’s primary vote is down from 48 per cent to 46 per cent (equal lowest since February), with the Coalition steady on 39 per cent.
UPDATE 3: Graphic here, Shanahan here.
Mr Shanahan:
“The real problem for Rudd is that the Government’s support didn’t fall in a heap”
Like to what – 70/30 TPP?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/chance_at_a_ko_went_begging
The ALP vote aint gonna grow anymore beyond its current level, within it’s MoE. I’m truly surprised its sustaining a 10-12 point gap on TPP.
Michael,
no-one is going to change their vote to Rudd over the issue… think about that…. that would mean one of the 45% who are still with the government (a historically low number), a level which implies not much more than core supporters and a few percent more, would have to change to Rudd because he made a complete arse of himself while representing Australian overseas, by getting blitzed and going to Scores – give me a break…. the people making those comments are just Rudd boosters trying to defend him.. which is of course their prerogative. I agree most people won’t change their vote, but no-one will change to him
10esp, I beg to differ. Overall, strippergate will have a small effect. But Wentworth residents might like the idea of a bit less moralising and posturing in Oz politics, and of course tolerance…..
Turnbull is going to have to buy a new seat, and take the 25% of the NSW Liberal party that lives in Wentworth with him.
Cheers 10, happy to give you a giggle 🙂
Like I said though, he’s admitted he was in a strip club drunk. He doesn’t have to kick 50 own goals as well as that by spelling out exactly what he saw down to the colours of the girls G-strings, that’s just dumb. Imagine what his wife would think seeing him get in to all that on TV as well. I think you’re expecting a little bit much on that score. (No pun intended)
Shanahan must think the government is really bad if he thinks the ALP’s numbers should be higher.
55% for the ALP means about 90 seats, does Shanahan think they deserve 100+?
Oh, and of course he puts his 2 cents in about women working in strip clubs as being demeaned. It’s an Op-Ed piece, so I guess he can give his opinion on anything and everything.
Greg says ” Voters (if they ever do) will not show their support for the Government until they absolutely have to – on election day.”
So the people voting in the polls pre election are delusions or delusional Greg ?
That is as rediculous and baseless as your “prediction” that the Coalition will “storm home in the final two weeks”. Care to expand on that ? I imagine some might say to the pollsters x and end up voting Y for one reason or another.
However, to imply, either explicitly or implicitly, that the proportion of people responding to pollsters with x and actually intending or deciding (in the last 2 weeks) to vote Y to the extent these voters will enable the team Y (incumbent) to “storm home” is just plan nonsense and ahistorical.
What history says about the relevance of pre election polls is that they are, to a degree, tainted and somewhat unreliable, but not to the extent that you are implying.
The proportion of people who lie or change their minds at the poll booth or 2 weeks beforehand is grossly over represented in your “prediction” and certainly nowhere near enough to deliver a win the Coalition given the stability of the poll results Possum (@ 32) has identified.
Note that Possum makes no “predictions” and yet has much more evidence to back him up when he offers a ‘reading’ of the poll trends.
You might do well to study his work and that of other more well versed poll analysts before you go “predicting” anything. I am being a biatchy blogger aint I – guess Im tired of pointless, baseless ‘slow but steady wins the race’ bs from anti Labor apologists.
I predict that Glen, Nostra, Cerdic and their aliases will read this poll result as ‘fantastic’ news for the Coaliton and and a clear indicator that Rudd’s drinkipoos in a New York strip joint have cost him the election [despite the fact that the effect of his naughtiness wont show until the next poll, but that wont faze them] -followed by another 2 or 3 hundred bunfight entries between lefties and the righties and same ole same ole.
Dont need to know anything about polls to predict that. LOL.
Let the games begin.
10 “no-one is going to change their vote to Rudd over the issue”
I was surprised that pretty much everyone in my office was talking him up today, and a very large portion are Liberal voters. Never say never in politics.
Strop,
My basis for saying that the Coalition will storm home, is that Labor’s lead is soft. Why is it soft? Because they trail by a long way (even after this most recent poll) on the issue that I think (and many commentators for that matter) will decide this election. The economy.
Cheers.
[My basis for saying that the Coalition will storm home, is that Labor’s lead is soft.]
The polls haven’t moved since JANUARY! They have been 54/46 or better, how does that translate into soft support?
[Because they trail by a long way (even after this most recent poll) on the issue that I think (and many commentators for that matter) will decide this election. The economy.]
Howard dropped SIX points in 2 weeks! If that happens again over the next month they will be even. Shouldn’t you be predicting Rudd will win?
Greg, by what measure do you think its “soft”?
Genuinely interested.
Ooops – my post escaped.
Greg, apart from that whole “economic management” shtick in the polls that doesnt actually correlate with anything much – is there anything else or just that?
Possum,
My basis for saying it’s soft is that, as stated, the Coalition still maintains a commanding lead on economic management. That’s the issue, when you consider how much debt there is around the place, that will be decisive in this election. So yeah, I don’t just say their lead is soft for no reason. People are going to be thinking of themselves (as they always do) and therefore their debt when they enter the polling booth. That doesn’t guarantee the Coalition will be returned, but I think it gives them a very good chance.
Greg the reason you think that, and many commentators think that, is because Liberal Party hacks can’t seem to understand that some people, in fact a lot of people, decide their votes on something other than ‘the economy’, a generalised, abstract notion which is not understood by most.
Most people are concerned mostly with their personal economy, not the national economy.
Plus, the ALP never has the lead in the ‘economy’ part of polls. Yet they have won elections in the past. For instance, throughout the 80s and 90s the ALP was usually behind in polling on who would better manage the economy (although in front on who would handle interest rates better surprisingly).
My opinion on this is that what really matters is the preferred PM poll largely (although the 96 election casts doubt on that). People often base their vote on which leader they prefer. Will this stripper thing make a huge impact? It’s definately popular. However, I think Downer should’ve leaked this much earlier, before people had a chance to decide what they thought of Rudd.
Wishful thinking on your behalf… I have been stating it all year Rudd will win because attraction and communication elects leaders and Rudd has both qualities. Voters rarely look at policies, they look at how you come across and the way you look… and in life such ideals are cornerstone to much of our thinking. This view maybe simplistic but it true.. Howard is finished and only one thing can bring about a turnaround and that is if Rudd gets hit by a bus.
In Australia much of leaders have these qualities albeit Lennon in Tasmania who time is up, he will not be their next time round and perhaps before another election. Howard will be gone in six months.
Greg,
How do you know that their vote on economic management isn’t soft too. Maybe it is a form of “they are doing it now, so they are better at it”.
I do find it strange that people can interpret some figures one way, but fail to take the same analysis or standard of analysis on other figures.
The issue that will decide this issue is WorkChoices. I have said that all year and I stick by that view. Howard won in 1996 by exploiting resentment at Keating’s elitist “big picture” issues and peeling off about a million Labor voters, mainly in NSW and Qld, and mostly what can loosely be called “upper working class.” A lot went back to Labor in 1998, but they were held in line in 2001 and 2004 by fear of MGBs (2001) and interest rates (2004). WorkChoices has driven the great bulk of them back to Labor, since their clear class interest in not having their wages and conditions rolled back trumps all other concerns. End of story. Everything else is froth.
Good night.
Also the Liberal Party bloggers on here that argue that the Government is on the front foot with WorkChoices now are obviously out of touch with the average Australian.
The ads have redirected a view on “What will make you better off” to one of “What will make the economy stronger”.
Howard has based a lot of his electoral success in the past off of the selfish vote. People are concerned over how WorkChoices will effect them, not how it will affect the economy.
I agree Adam
Fairly steady, maybe the 1% change could be because the govt dropped the Work Choices ads, I have hardly seen one in the past two weeks where once they were all over the place.
Looks like Howard and Hockey took the survey results to heart which said the Work Choice ads were reinforcing a negative perception of Work Choices.
As for Nuclear power, cabinet is supposed to have a report for release in September, will we see ads from the govt on the benefits of the proposed 25 nuclear power stations to be built around Aust.
Bill says Port Stanvac in Kingston is already earmarked for one.
Funniest press release of the week would have to go the Nationals candidate who said she would vote against a nuclear power station.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Nationals-argue-over-nuclear-industry/2007/08/20/1187462125227.html
I would like to see the Newspoll after Howard releases the report and says where he proposes the 25 Nuclear power stations will go.
You keep beleiving the line the Labor vote is ‘soft’ if you want to Greg. Thats fine, opinions or beleifs are fine.
And ‘the economy’ will be a key issue, but I dont think it will be the deciding issue this time around unless the US economy goes down the toilet in the weeks before the election and JWH can get over the hipocracy of claiming superior economic credentials and breaking his promise on interest rate 5 times since 2004;
To be balanced, I would have thought the RBA interest rate increase and the poor way the Prime Minister and Treasurer tried to back away from the intent of their key 2004 election promise {if not the actual wording}
would have seen an increase to 56-44 or 57-43 cf the last newspoll.
I would have liked (from a Labor perspective) to see a slump in the 2PP for the Coalition because Labor could/should be banking on a stronger reaction to the RBA interest rate increase and their willingness to up the rate again pre election if needs be.
The ‘Howard battlers’ Rudd is going to be relying on to win this election dont appear to have registered a clear ‘protest’ against the Coalition in this poll except perhaps in the ‘preferred PM’ and ‘managing the economy’ measures.
Still, Shanahan’s predictable interpretation of this poll as a “real problem for Rudd” because the Coalition’s 2PP didn’t fall in a heap is at other extreme of sensibility. There is plenty to room for Howard here, but he is the one with the “problem” not Rudd.
Michael,
It’s just my opinion mate. I do think the public believes that Costello and Howard are better ‘economic managers’ than Rudd and Swan. I certainly do not think that is a leap in logic to think that or a ‘soft’ view held by the public. I think, in fact, it’s quite hardened. Like the Keating Government in 1996, if the Government was on its last legs, they would be behind on economic management as well as the primary vote and TPP. Look, I could be wrong about the Coalition storming home, but it’s my gut instinct and this an open forum.
Cheers.
Greg, I wouldn’t rule out the Coalition ‘storming home’ and think that’s most likely what will happen. However, I think it’s too easy to put down an election win to ‘the economy’ in general. Throughout the 80s and 90s the ALP consistantly trailed the Coalition in polling on who was ‘the better economic manager’.
It’s just how it works. Conservative parties are usually rated better with the economy and the ALP with things like Education, Health etc. It rarely changes over time.
That’s why I think the poll results on those things should be taken with a grain of salt. People have their own understandings of parties’ strong points and nothing much changes that. However, Governments do change still.
Adam if any issue decides it this will be it, nonetheless Labors’ previous leaders were unappealing- Latham and Beazley, whilst Beazley was a poor communicator. Latham was undone not by poor communication but by a media pack interested in smear, and past discretions, his team and a scare campaign.
Latham would have made a great leader because he was interesting and because he actually wanted to make a difference, additionally he wasn’t one of those loony religious conservatives who provide us with much of the conservative economic rationalist muck.
Another reason Latham lost was because the loony retailers union disliked him.
Rudd unfortunately is a conservative do nothing and that is what we will probably get in the future, more of the same with a bit of cream in between the cake occassionally.
Certainly is an open forum Greg. I think your wrong and to be honest hope your wrong but Im not Nostradamus either.
Howard will have to do more than give a passing acknowledgement that some working families have not benefitted from the economic growth of the past 10-15 years to win back the faith of the ‘Howard Battlers’ IMHO.
Cheers: she who will be obeyed is summoning the political obsessive.
Strop.
Could someone please tell me what role the State Governments’ have had in regards to economic management and our so called economic boom, considering their all Labor governments.
[additionally he wasn’t one of those loony religious conservatives ]
He is a loony atheist instead, and he certainly is an economic rationalist, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Howard announces $20 billion PorkChest:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22279835-601,00.html
That’s $20 billion worth of extra inflationary pressure.
Admittedly i didnot like his economic ideals but
at least Latham was willing to listen and be adventurous, Rudd seems to be overly cautious and introverted… and this disappoints me.
Simon Howson Says:
August 21st, 2007 at 12:38 am
Howard announces $20 billion PorkChest:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22279835-601,00.html
That’s $20 billion worth of extra inflationary pressure.
And how many of these “Councils Applying” will be in Marginal Seats ?
Yep a war chest and a vision according to Lateline… and what is this vision.. attack the States, and greater budget savings.or surpluses…
Is this the meaning of vision?
Someone brought up Irish elections. From my memory, Irish elections are quite wierd, I doubt there are many parallels with Australia, the two parties don’t seem to follow the left-right dictonomy too rigidly and seem to base their differentiation more historic divisions (Fianna Fail centre-left/anti-EU, Fine Gael centre-right/pro-EU integration). In fact Ahern in some ways is more a social democratic than his opponents. Can you image the Liberals going into government with the Greens (I’d love to be a fly on the wall when Eric Abetz sits next to Bob Brown)
From Wikipedia
“Fianna Fail from its establishment in the early twentieth century, the party moved from being a radical, centre-left party, to becoming the dominant established, broadly centrist party, its influence dominating government and Irish political life from the 1930s onwards. It has been the largest party in Dáil Éireann since 1932, and has formed the government seven times since Ireland gained independence in 1921: 1932–48, 1951–54, 1957–73, 1977–81, 82, 1987–94, and since 1997. Electorally, Fianna Fáil is second only to the Swedish Social Democratic Party in its proportion of tenure in government.”
Fine Gael was founded on 3 September 1933 following the merger of its predecessor party Cumann na nGaedhael, the Centre Party and the Army Comrades Association. Its origins are based in the struggle for Irish independence and the pro-Treaty side in the Irish Civil War, identifying in particular Michael Collins as the founder of the movement. Today, Fine Gael describes itself as a party of the progressive centre though, with core values focussed on fiscal rectitude, individual rights and responsibilites and free enterprise. They are strongly pro-EU integration and opposed to violent Irish republicanism. Fine Gael is the only member-party of the European People’s Party (EPP) in Ireland. Its MEPs sit in the EPP-ED Group.”
http://www.politicalcompass.org/ireland
On the results
2002 election
Fianna Fáil Bertie Ahern 770,800 votes 41.5% of vote +2.2% swing
Fine Gael Michael Noonan 54 417,700 votes 22.5% -5.4% swing
Seats Won
Party Seats
Fianna Fáil 81
Fine Gael 31
Labour Party 20
Progressive Democrats 8
Green Party 6
Sinn Féin 5
Socialist Party 1
Independent 13
Ceann Comhairle 1
2007 election
Fianna Fáil Bertie Ahern 859,300 votes 41.6% +0.1% swing
Fine Gael Enda Kenny 563,900 27.3% +4.8% swing
Distribution of seats
Party Seats
Fianna Fáil 77
Fine Gael 51
Labour Party 20
Green Party 6
Sinn Féin 4
Progressive Democrats 2
Independent 5
Ceann Comhairle 1
Notice Bertie lost seats, but won because of a drop in support with minor parties, in particular with support in the Progressive Democrats plummeting (down from 8 seats to 2), and PDs would be the party that comes closest to resembling a free-market party in Ireland – although they may suffer the same problem that ACT in NZ and LDP in Australia suffer in preaching to the converted with their political message.
Free enterprise, individual rights and fiscal rectitude are the chracteristics of Howardism and Thatcherism, Fine Gael = Conservative Party.
YouGov in Oz -this will be interesting:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22279919-11949,00.html
So the Libs hope to “do a McKew” to Rudd in Qld – well it won’t work, as these guys weren’t on Television every night, as John Paul Young once sang.
[A MAN who won a 5 per cent swing against Queensland Premier Peter Beattie at the last state election is the Liberal Party’s likely opponent for Kevin Rudd in the federal poll.
Liberal Party sources said Craig Thomas, a Brisbane businessman who works in the IT industry, was likely to be the candidate after nominations were called for Mr Rudd’s seat of Griffith in Brisbane’s eastern suburbs.
The Liberal Party has been looking for a high-profile candidate similar to former ABC journalist Maxine McKew, the ALP’s candidate against John Howard in the Sydney seat of Bennelong, to stand against Mr Rudd, but it has had trouble attracting a suitable person.
Liberal Party insiders said Mr Thomas, 41, was a very good campaigner on the ground, and had business credibility as a result of being a director of Fortitude Valley Chamber of Commerce in Brisbane.
Another possible candidate is former Olympic kayaker Andrew Trim, who won a silver medal at the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney in the pairs. Mr Trim, who runs a local real estate agency, also sought preselection for the considerably safer Liberal seat of Fadden, held by retiring Liberal Party member David Jull, which is further south of Griffith.
Liberal Party factional warrior Michael Caltabiano was also named this year as a possible candidate in Griffith. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22279923-5013404,00.html
Sorry Greg, economic management wont win it for Team Rodent this time. Doesnt matter how far ahead they get on that measure either.
Why? Because Workchoices has made it appear they are ‘managing the economy’ for someone else; someone other than your average punter.
Pfft …. Caltabianco.
Yeah there’s a quality candidate. Ex-Lib Councillor (i.e even bigger no-hopers than the QLD state libs – all 4 of em), actually managed to lose his ward when a Lib won Mayor, from memory?
Newspoll. More of the same. Labor on track for a win.
I see that some of the Libs around here seem to think that “once the campaign starts” the nervous nellies currently intending to vote Labor will, by some process of osmosis, filter back to Howard.
I hate to say it, but it must be clear to anyone with eyes and ears that the Government has been campaigning pretty-well flat-out since January. They’ve certainly pulled every lever and rung every bell they could think of to wind-back Rudd’s lead during that time, that’s for sure.
Equally obvious is the fact that nothing has worked. As Possum and others have pointed out, the Labor primary and 2pp lead has remained in the 47/48 and 55/58 range respectively, throughout that time.
These figures have proven to be remarkably stable. Followed through at the election, they would result in a Labor landslide.
Less than 3 months out, I think we can safely say that the Government is gone. The only question remaining will be the extent of their loss.
I wouldnt write the libs off yet Evan. Dont get me wrong, I am hoping that labor and Kevvie get over the line (and not a moment before time), but howard has looked down and out previously. By rights, labor should have won 1998 and 2001. 2004 would have been won if latham hadntve imploded (making up policy on the run probably isnt the worlds greatest idea). Howard still has something up his sleeve. the question is what?
Actually what is strange is the coalition between Fin Gael and Labor, you’d think their policies on so many positions would be antithetical.
I’ll have to sit down one day in looking more into the history of the parties, it must be fascinating reporting on such a diverse groupings of power, the obverse of the “we all speak with one voice” that has dogged Australian politics for the last fifteen odd years, particularly under Howard. In Ireland being a political liberal you would be a small-government, cosmopolitan, in Australia you’re a political conservative if you’re into small-government and nationalism, actually Howard hasn’t shown much interest in small-government, so we’re do we place him.
Howard is definately a conservative. Small government maybe no but actually doing anything no also… Howards’ vision has centred on helping the private sector and the wealthy and not much else. Big government to Howard means giving money to mariginal seats to win elections and not much else. Cannot think of any significant progressive social reforms generally as said it has been about the individual, and free enterprise and this is how we must grow… Howard is a cautious conservative but certainly not a Liberal.. Policy generally has come at election year and he has been about saving money for tax cuts to the wealthy.
Stephen Hill
Maybe we place Howard on rubbish heap of history?
The election will tell 🙂
Maybe J K Galbraith (PBUH) was thinking of Howard:
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
So he is not a political liberal in the Irish sense or a Traditional Conservative, but correctly a “Modern Conservative”. Hence his obsession with aspirant selfishness?
The Labour and Fine Gael coalition is not unusual in European parliaments with PR or lots of multi-member electorates. Look at the CDP/CSU and SDP Government in Germany.
Wow – I thought the last two weeks were supposed to have been shockers for the Government. Or so the Lefties here told us, what with interest rates going up and turmoil over the Liberal leadership swamping the news last week. Yet it was Labor’s primary vote that went down, with the Government’s staying the same (of course, this poll understates the Coalition’s vote, which as we all know is now comfortably above 40%). So basically this poll echoes the last Nielsen and reinforces the conclusion in Canberra that the rate rise didn’t harm the Government at all.
Shannahan is increasingly ridiculous. His lead for this story is fanciful. He should know that a week is a proverbially long time in politics.
Doesn’t he get the overwhelming message from the polls? Coalition voters will vote for the coalition, Labor voters will vote for Labor, and most of the swinging voters have made up their mind – for Kruddy.
How much more of a landslide does he think Rudd needs, or for that matter, can possibly get? On the Newspoll numbers, the coalition is wiped out. Huge majority for Labor.
For all intents and purposes, Howard has been ‘put away’. Can he actually read Newspoll?
Here are the figures for Rudd’s dissatisfaction from the last 6 newspolls, as reported today: 17%, 22%, 21%, 22%, 19%, 23%.
These are fairly volatile numbers – they can vary by as much as 5% from poll to poll. An individual sample in isolation is fairly meaningless as an example of a big change. You need to see a continued trend.
I wonder if Shannahan understands this?
Steven Kaye, looks like election night for you is going to be a memorable one. As you shake your head wondering where have all the conservative seats gone, just remember the old adage, it’s the economy stupid and incompetent conservative governments reap what they sow.
This is a very important point. While we may muse over the reasons for a movement this way or that, there still exists a margin for error. It is not inconceivable that a 55-45 result in one poll can be over-inflated, whereas a 58-42 result in the next poll could be UNDER-inflated. In this random example, the *real* result could be a 5-6% jump, not the 3 point jump shown by the raw numbers.
So how do we really know what the exact numbers are?
I think the important point here (already made by Possum and others) is that the ALP lead has been 10+ points all year and showing no signs of dropping below that. Therefore the government is still in real trouble and unless they convincingly win the election campaign (unlikely, I’m tipping a draw at best), they’re history.
Greg 62
Your point about economic management indicating soft ALP support implies that this is the only factor affecting voters. There are many reasons people vote a certain way. Economic management has a level of importance to everyone, certainly, but many other factors come into play, such as job security, honesty in government, the “it’s time” factor, education, health, and of course, IR.
I would rate job security probably higher than that in most people’s minds. If you’ve lost your job or your awards due to Worst Choices, I doubt you’d give a rats how well the economy is travelling.
Job security. When unemployment is at 4.3%, I don’t think too many people have been forced out of work due to Workchoices. I’m still waiting for Stripper-gate to be tied back to Workchoices – ie the stripper was really an Aussie who was over there trying to supplement her income etc after having her conditions pared back here in Australia. lol
How could the Govt win a draw in the campaign – there’s a dearth of rabbits – and hats for that matter? And yes, most are not listening for which this govt has only itself to blame. Nothing is biting for them at the moment and everything’s been tried – including attempts at fixing the unholy stuff-up that is/was Workchoices. Iraq (don’t mention the ‘war on terror’), a late attempt at dredging up a long-term vision for Australia (bag the states) and….oh why bother its a sad list. It really is ‘Time’.
I agree with just about everyone else here that the latest poll is very consistent with all the others, and shows movement only within the margin of error.
I normally don’t take much notice of the preferred PM ratings, as I’ve never been convinced they affect the vote on election day. However, I think the combination of voters losing a bit of confidence in the government’s economic management, and a widening of the preferred PM gap in favour of Rudd, could have serious implications if the trend continues.
Remember that Labor dumped Kim Beazley primarily because his preferred PM rating was well below Howard’s. The actual Labor vote showing in the polls was quite competitive with the government. The ALP felt that, when it came to the crunch, Beazley just couldn’t win against Howard. Will the Libs conclude that Howard can’t win against Rudd, but perhaps someone else (Costello? Turnbull?) can? I doubt it. I think they’ll probably conclude it’s too late to change leaders. But watch that preferred PM figure from now on.
(1) My latest graphs are up with Newspoll incorporated.
(2) Contrary to Possum, I think there has been a clear and statistically significant move back to the government since March 2007 (see my monthly aggregated polling). However, much of that movement has been achieved by squeezing the Green and minor party vote, and there is not a lot left to be squeezed. If the Coalition is to get over the line come the election, it needs to begin feasting on Labor’s primary vote, which has proved remarkably resilient so far this year.