Movement at the station

I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt‘s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

647 comments on “Movement at the station”

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  1. Who thinks Rudd will censure Howard for failing to provide stable government?

    Will Rudd try to make a point of this, or will he just ask questions about policy?

  2. Rudd just got finished with a nice short speech at the luncheon and now Harper is addressing the luncheon group. That is live (as others have noted the formal speech already happened earlier this morning). They must be more or less just “walking across the hall” after Harper is done speaking here …

  3. Simon, I’d say Rudd’s best move will be to not comment in Parliament on the leadership speculation. Make a few small comments if asked by the press about how the public deserve a solid answer on leadership from the Liberal Party and knowledge of who will lead the party into the future.

  5. Here is an article you will certainly appreciate “Call the election please”.

    It pays to be one of Oprah Winfrey’s pets! According to an insider, Oprah’s pampered pooches stand to inherit a whopping $30million if they happen to outlive their owner.

    “Oprah has a menagerie of animals and she wants them to be pampered for the rest of their lives if she were to die first,” a friend reveals.

    “She has five dogs plus various other pets, so she rewrote her will to include millions for their care.”

    Although a $30million trust fund may sound extravagant, it’s not much more than pocket change to the media mogul. “Oprah’s a billionaire so that’s not a lot of money if you look at her entire net worth,” her friend points out.

  6. I think Rudd should look vaguely supportive of the PM, should reiterate it is about time to call the election, and that the Liberal’s chose to stick with the PM last year and that the election shouldn’t be delayed just because the liberals don’t know if they still trust Howard or not. Let the PM call the election so the national interest can be focused on, and if these trouble makers want to overthrow the PM it is really an internal liberal party matter.

  7. [no one is at the wheel of the nation]

    wow…really Simon, and I thought we had a public service too. There has been a “phoney” election campaign going on for a while now, so in a sense the present government is a caretaker one until the poll. The “leadership speculation” fascinates visitors to this website but for the rest of the low involvement voters, life goes on with or without Howard (or Costello or Rudd for that matter).

  10. Michael Says:
    In my view there is now one thing, and one thing only that Howard can do to stop all this speculation…call the election TODAY!!!

    Or they have a party meeting and one of ’em gets up and moves that “the positions of leader and deputy leader of the Parliamentary Liberal Party be declared vacant”.

    I have a vague memory from the 80s that they don’t even have to have a seconder for this sort of motion under PLP rules.

    In the meantime talkback in Sydney has gone into meltdown with Glen’s aunties and uncles ringing up to give their support to the Rodent, condemn Turnbull (in particular) and blame everything on the MSM and journos.

  11. I don’t think that costello has any intetion to challenge Howard tomorrow in the Party room but i do believe that there is a chance will emerge as Prime Minister.
    At the moment Howard is backed into a corner with the leadership he cant quit as this will be an admission that he had gotten it wrong a year ago and he doesnt want to lose his seat and be at the helm when to coalition are defeated the only way for him to get out is to be rolled.

    But how do you make that happen ? well you get one of your most loyal supporters (AD) to start talking to people, leak the word that you’ve been told by senior ministers (AD and MT) to step down, this creates a media frenzy where there is a growing public consesus that you will be rolled. The whole time you pretend like you want to fight it out but when the vote happens only Costello nominates as a bloodless Coup is the way this should be sorted.

    The election comes and go’s your Costello your Party Nemisis was Prime Minister for 2 months, lost the election then slipped into electoral oblivion.

  12. Ahh, Mr. Rudd should just hammer the theme that if a PM doesn’t have the support of his party – how can he expect to have the support of the nation.

    ….and oldie but a goodie – he doesn’t have to get personal, just stand, statesman-like, above the fray… Swan or Albanese should get stuck in though!

    As someone else said earlier today – I too am getting sick of foreign leaders coming here and telling us how excellent John Howard is… btw does anyone else think Dolly put Harper up to speaking in French?

  13. [The “leadership speculation” fascinates visitors to this website but for the rest of the low involvement voters, life goes on with or without Howard ]

    Yes really! One reason why the government has such serious problems in the polls is because it hasn’t be able to explain what it is going to do in the next term.

    This leadership speculation will play on the TV news tonight, and simply reinforce the judgement that the government is concerned with itself, and not with running the country.

  14. Michael @ 77,

    The following seats are “gains” for Labor at Portlandbet:

    Dobell
    Eden-Monaro
    Lindsay
    Parramatta/Macquarie (redistribution issues)
    Bonner
    Herbert
    Blair
    Moreton
    Bass
    Braddon
    Solomon
    Hasluck
    Stirling
    Kingston
    Makin
    Wakefield

    I count that as 16 seats – which gives Labor 76 “seats” = majority

  15. Bets Suspended On Aussie Vote; PM Support Wavers

    0326 GMT [Dow Jones] Election betting specialist Lasseters suspends betting on Australia’s general election as speculation surrounds future of PM Howard; prior to betting freeze, ruling Liberal-National coalition had drifted to A$2.75 from A$2.60, while opposition Labor firmed to pay A$1.45 from A$1.50. “If the PM is to get the tap on the shoulder (to step aside) then (opposition leader) Rudd may as well get his keys cut for the Lodge (official PM residence),” says Lasseters’ Gerard Duffy; “where there’s smoke there’s fire and we aren’t prepared to get burnt in the process.” Adds will re-open betting once coalition leadership issue resolved.(

  17. They are all very slow to get to their seats. Perhaps if it was a boozey Canadian lunch then it could get interesting.

    The press gallery is all there.

  24. “Adds will re-open betting once coalition leadership issue resolved.”

    Ummm… at the risk of pointing out the obvious, the leadership issue can only be resolved if either one of the following happens: (1) an election is called; (2) Howard goes as PM before the election. If Howard stays, the leadership issue will be on slow burn, until the day the election is called.

    Anybody else notice that Rudd is turning up the rhetoric on Costello. Preparimg for ‘Plan B’ maybe?

  25. “An economy doesn’t run itself” – Peter Costello

    Well, market economies actually do. Peter Costello sounds like he wants to lead a politburo in the U.S.S.R., rather than the Liberal Party.

  26. [If Howard stays, the leadership issue will be on slow burn, until the day the election is called. ]

    YES! This is what I want, I’ll vote for slow burning leadership speculation, with a side serving of electoral wipe out.

  29. This QT seems to look like a bit of a phoney war.

    Both parties are trying to avoid the elephant in the room, most probably they realise that neither can gain if they actually ask questions about it.

    What I did notice is that the Government front bench seems less animated than usual – they’ve probably got other things on their mind…

  32. [Dolly blinding repeating the rubbish that no-one in the US believes … sighs.]

    He always sounds like he is about to cry when he speaks, I wonder if the same happens when he speaks French?

  33. This Betrayus fellow is just completely political, and everyone knows it, why do labor extend him a curtesy that he doesn’t get at home, where everyone knew what he was going to say, and that is was wrong, weeks before he said it?

  35. Abbott got asked a dixer about Medicare. He mentioned that bulk billing is more commonplace, and is now talking about Labor considering cutting the Medicare safety net.

  36. Howard is now trying to explain why every other country on earth is looking for away out of Iraq and he is trying to look strong by not thinking about it.

  38. Just finished the question time broadcast. Labor asked no questions on leadership.

    Labor frontbenchers showed no sign of smirking or gloating.

    Howard looked decidely uncomfortable in answering his first question, twitching and shuffling his feet.

    Peter Costello gave no support to Howard when Howard was on his feet answering questions; no supportive nods, laughing at his jokes or meaningful eye contact.

    In contrast when Lord Downer rose to his feet Costello’s demeanour changed noticeably; he looked at Downer, nodded in approval and laughed at his cracks.

  39. Mclellan asked Howard about plans for a withdrawal from Iraq. Howard says, paraphrasing, “Ner. The US have a million times more troops, so you can’t compare them”.

  43. Hockey was asked a question about…ahhh, it doesn’t really matter. He is saying that “50% of Labor candidates are union bosses”. Labor tied to unions, want the unions back, workers will pay etc.

  45. Garret asked a cute question to Howard about some comments that Downer and Turnbull made about the uselessness of ‘aspirational’ type agreements dealing with carbon emissions and climate change.

    First thing Howard did was tell the house what lovely chaps Alexander and Malcom were. Made me laugh!

  46. http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pollies-learn-their-lines-from-labors-script/2007/09/10/1189276635259.html

    “The notes include lines such as: “Mr Howard has had 11 years to deal with (insert any issue) and is only acting now because there’s an election on. He’s gone stale and is desperate. It’s time for a fresh approach and new leadership on this issue.”

    The material was handed to Labor caucus members during an election briefing by ALP national secretary Tim Gartrell. A copy was obtained by the ABC.”

    Thought I had heard all this several times before.

  47. Gillard to Hockey – “You didn’t say in 2004 that you would change IR laws to remove unfair dismissals, remove award conditions, etc. Why should we believe you now for post-election plans?”

    Hockey – “We’ve delivered high real wages, more jobs, lowest level unemployment in 33 years. Wanted to remove unfair dismissals on 44 seperate occasions – Labor blocked 44 times. Would have you believe Labor love small business. Concerned about losing jobs, but more concerned about people getting jobs. Unfair dismissal was impedement to long-term unemployment – most benefited by removal of laws are the disadvantaged.”

  49. Hartsuyker to Truss – trade question.

    Truss – “Hey, that APEC was great. Australians sure are friendly. We’re a trading nation, ooh, APEC sure was great. Lots of people who we like are in APEC. APEC makes jobs. APEC helps exporters. Government will continue to fight to liberalise trade environment. Doha round – industry wants it, and needs a Government to support it. APEC will help liberalise trade. APEC Free Trade, that would be even better. ”

    An aside – Truss is kind of hypnotic to listen to.

    Truss – “APEC makes doing business easier, thanks to APEC business card scheme. APEC helps fight corruption. APEC developed strong agenda – positive action. Labor opposes bilateral trade agreement – has never negotiated one – contributes nothing. APEC. APEC.”

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