Morgan: 59-41

Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly face-to-face polls, today’s offering being a survey of 955 voters conducted on Saturday and Sunday (so before the early week leadership non-event). It shows a 1 per cent shift in the Coalition’s direction on two-party preferred, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition from 34.5 per cent to 36 per cent, Labor from 49 per cent to 51 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

558 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

Comments Page 9 of 12
1 … 8 9 10 … 12

  4. For GenericOracle’s sake can anyone tell us the largest swing that has taken place towards a government from opinion polls taken at the calling of an election to the actual poll result? Has a government ever recovered from being this far behind in the polls at this time of the election cycle? I’m guessing not.

  7. 1996 Coalition lost ground in last month before election
    1998 Coalition lost ground in last month before election
    2001 Coalition lost ground in last month before election
    2004 Coalition gained ~1% in last month before election

  10. They made up the ground in the period before the election was called, when they saturated the media with taxpayer-funded advertising blitzs. See Possum’s brilliant analysis (Capitulation) of the leaked Crosby-Textor Report.

  11. I suspect the reason why the Liberals go backwards during campaigns is the younger voters start taking more notice.

    So the different between a 58-42 or 60-40 could well be the new Enrollment laws

    I think even back in the 1980s the ALP use to gain during the campaign.

    But as Huge MacKay once pointed out Campaigns don’t change much vote wise.

  12. Brandis once taught me John Rawls’ ‘A Theory of Justice’ (very wet welfare state lib-labism). He’s come a long way (Brandis, not Rawls)

    Someone asked why Swan doesn’t drive round in a Debt Truck. Simple reason: Labor isn’t going to slap controls on lending, business, foreign exchange or the growth-first philosophy. No wish to load up broken promises unnecessarily.

    Glen: ‘the head of the ALP equivalent the ‘Liberal Party of Canada’ is Stephan Dion who is from Quebec and speaks shocking English’. Do you mean to be xenophobic? Both Dion and Harper are bi-lingual. I learnt in school Canada was officially bi-lingual. Although Harper likes to pooh-pooh bi-linguality as a fact, of course he won’t be consistent and allow Quebec independence.

  13. In his double uphill battle to retain his Government and his Seat, John Howard has just made a commitment to the voiters of Bennelong to stay in Parliament after he abdicates in favour of his good chum, Peter Costello.

    Unbelievable.

    But then most of his promises are!

    Not that it will happen, but isn’t it delicious to picture the situation: new Prime Minister Costello with new ministry and grumpy Howard sitting on the back-bench showing his obvious disapproval of any initiative his successor Costello comes up with.

    What we will be seeing is grumpy Howard siting at home at Wollstonecraft showing his disapproval of all the initiatives his successor Rudd comes up with (but only Jeanette will be watching).

  14. Re John Howard saying as MP for Benelong
    since 1983 no PM who ceased to remain PM has stayed in parliament
    why? this is the most sensible thing to do!!
    I’m sure John Howard once he ceased to be PM would not remain
    as an MP either

  15. Canberra Boy, I agree Howard will do anything and everything to try to regain support – starting with his party first.

    Timbo and Barney – further on the young Cassius Clay. He was considered a loudmouth and not a real fighter because he refused to be hit i.e. he couldn’t take it (whatever that means). He entered the fight with Liston as an 8/1 underdog, consider that, he was given 1 chance in 9 of winning the fight, that’s how certain the boxing industry was of Liston’s invincibility.

    I remember the fight commentator saying towards the end of the first round, when it was obvious that Liston was no match for Ali (Clay), “it’s now clear folks that this fight is being dominated by the long left lead of Mr Clay”.

    Liston was so desperate, that by the fifth round, his handlers had put some coagulant cream on his gloves to rub into Ali’s eyes to cause temporary blindness, it caused Ali to tie Liston up in clinches to survive until his eyes cleared. By the seventh round, Liston had had enough, and refused to come out.

    Ali was so confident of his victory over Liston that prior to the fight he made two predictions; 1, that this will be the biggest upset in boxing history, 2, this will be the easiest fight of his career. He even wrote a little poem for all his fans who couldn’t get to the fight, predicting how it would transpire:

    Clay comes out to meet Liston, and Liston starts to retreat;
    If Liston goes back any further, he’ll end up in a ringside seat;
    Clay swings with his left, Clay swings with his right, look at young Cassius carry the fight;
    Liston keeps backing, there’s not enough room, it’s a matter of time, Clay lowers the boom;
    Liston disappears from view, and the crowd is getting frantic, but our radar stations have picked him up, he’s somewhere over the Atlantic;
    Liston keeps rising and the ref raises a frown, ’cause he can’t start counting, ’till Liston comes down;
    Who would have thought when they came to the fight, that they would witness the launching of a human satellite;
    The crowd could not dream when they put down their money, that they would be seeing the total eclipse of the Sonny!

  16. I read an interesting comment on Andrew Bolt’s blog by a person called Chris.

    Paraphasing

    “Howard is wrong for his approval rating in lower than the Liberal primary vote also if he is using the Satiasfaction rating there is a problem for his and Rudd’s equal 112% some people must be saying they are satisfied with both leaders performance and even on this score he is 20 points behind Rudd.”

  17. Evidence of guilt?

    What does Kevin Andrews have to say about this refusal to co-operate?

    THREE federal Liberal MPs investigated for alleged electoral allowance rorts failed to co-operate with police, despite promising repeatedly to do so during the six-month probe.

    Andrew Laming, who is still under investigation, has also failed to hand over a sample of his signature to rule out its alleged forgery on more than $67,000 worth of electoral printing claims.

    On Thursday it appeared Mr Hardgrave had misled parliament when he claimed on August 7 he had not been required to be interviewed for the probe, when the AFP released a statement saying it had requested an interview with the MP and he had declined.

    A spokesman for Justice Minister David Johnston, when asked by The Weekend Australian if the minister had received updates on the investigation, said it had been “conducted at arm’s length at his request”.

    But after being told of claims that Senator Johnston had sought and received updates, the spokesman issued a statement.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22421226-601,00.html

  19. [THREE federal Liberal MPs investigated for alleged electoral allowance rorts failed to co-operate with police, despite promising repeatedly to do so during the six-month probe.]

    I think they should have their visas cancelled! 😛

  21. Snow @ 409,

    “If the coalition lost the campaigns when did they get their votes?”

    According to Possum this is how the Coalition go their votes in 2001 and 2004 (but not this year):

    “The last 2 elections were noticeable in terms of voter movement by a large, prolonged, taxpayer funded adversing blitz starting 6 months before the election itself, combined with government initiatives on these advertising issues that had the effect of clawing back government support.

    This, not the campaign, was how Howard won the last 2 elections. It was the 2 quarters leading up to the election that gave a large enough boost to the Coalitions primary vote that allowed them to cruise into victory. Any extra vote they received in the campaign itself was nothing but a cherry on top, such as what occurred in the 2004 election.

    In 2007, the same three card trick has been played, but its effect was completely different.

    The reason its different this time is a consequence of what we were talking about earlier – the issues involved that are being advertised (Workchoices etc) aren’t Howards issues, they’re Rudds. When Howard talks about them, they simply reinforce existing voter views that are detrimental to the Coalitions electoral prospects. That’s been reflected in the polls.”

  22. I remember seeing something on jTV on the ABC about what the leaders were doing about climate change “at home”. Rudd talked about rain tanks, low wattage globs and I think grey water. Howard said ‘weve installed rain tanks at Kirribilli’. I know Kirribilli is his primary residence, but that wouldn’t be his money, bet he has done nothing at his own place.

  25. About Howard’s announcement, look at the detail:

    “If I’m returned and the government’s returned at the coming election I will serve my full term at the member for Bennelong, the full three years, and I won’t be inflicting a by-election on the people of my electorate,”

    What if Labor wins government, but Howard retains Bennelong? Does that mean there will be a costly bi-election? 3 years on the opposition backbenchs will be long and hard.

  26. LOL you lot are still on here debating this bloody election and it is still yet to be called. I urge you all to get out a bit..you know kick a ball go to the beach please anything other than sitting around debating something that is still some time away.

    BTW my tip the coalition relelected with a 10 seat majority. See you’s a bit later when the election is actually called.

  28. Freeman, lets remember Howard lost 18 seats during his campaign for his 2nd term. At least he took the GST to the electorate. This election is about many issues, but it’s also the election about WorkChoices that we never voted to give a mandate for.

  30. “I learnt in school Canada was officially bi-lingual.”

    Canada is officially bi-lingual. I used to live there for 10 years. Being able to speak fluently in both english and french is a requirement to enter parliament. You cannot, in fact, graduate from high-school without being able to converse in both languages.

  31. Howard’s claim that the Govt would be nothing without him, that the bad polls are nothing to do with him will have a very negative effect on anyone reading it, even coalition supporters.

    IT is high order arrogance but also it smacks of crapping on your own team, putting them down. The captain is always meant to stand up for his team, to take the blame even when he is right. By doing this Howard makes himself look like a government of one – an isolated individual. Him and them.

    Howard was looking to justify his staying on and was willing to sell his ‘mates’ down the drain to do it.

  32. I have posted this before but it is worth a reminder. Not only has Howard lost the support of Cabinet, Costello is not liked by Cabinet. SO their margin of tolerance for two people they don’t want should be fairly slim. NOW if can just get a few nasty outlier polls…..

    “Peter Costello wasn’t invited last week when ministers met to discuss the PM’s future last week. Which may be just as well. A well-placed source tells Crikey that the other main topic of talk was the “deep unpopularity” of the Treasurer amongst his cabinet colleagues.”
    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070914-The-love-in-that-shared-the-love.html

  33. I mentioned recently that the seat of Gilmore, even though it is held on a 9.5% margin, maybe a smokey. This is the featured letter of the week in the local paper from the ALP candidate. He has an agenda to push, but I’ve noticed this distancing from the Government in her radio ads, has also been picked up by residents.

    “MP’s hidden loyalties
    Friday, 14 September 2007
    Posted By Neil Reilly

    I AM surprised at the Gilmore Liberal candidate Joanna Gash’s lack of support for her leader and her party.
    If you scour her printed material and her outdoor signs you can see she avoids mention of her party and John Howard, her leader. Voters of Gilmore must know that, to get rid of Howard, they need to get rid of Gash.
    The material gives the impression that she wants to disguise the fact that a vote for Joanna Gash is a vote for John Howard and the Liberal Party’s poor history of support for Gilmore.
    Mrs Gash, as part of the Howard Government, voted to abolish dental care, failed to get the Princes Highway on the Auslink agenda and created the highest unemployment in Australia, right here in Gilmore.
    When you think about it, Mrs Gash takes credit for local grants applied for and gained by community groups, but refuses to acknowledge her loyalty to her leader John Howard.
    More than one person has asked me whose side she is on, some even believe she is a local government representative as she cunningly avoids national responsibilities.
    People should be able to join the dots between Howard and Gash. The member should put her party’s logo and leader’s endorsement on all material.
    I am part of Kevin Rudd’s team and represent the Labor Party … it’s a matter of pride and honesty.”

  34. I found this on Ozelection2007 – does anyone know if this is true? I havent seen it.
    ————————————–
    This is a Qld State voting intention Newspoll that was published in the Oz yesterday, 14 Sept, taken July-Sept with sample 955 voters. Comparisons against Apr-June Newspoll. Data should be up soon at Newspoll web site.

    Primary: Labor 50, down 1; Coalition 33, up 2.

    Labor’s 2PP down 2

    This strongly implies that Labor’s Qld state vote has not been affected much at all by the amalgamations in Qld, so these amalgamations will have very little impact on the Federal vote.
    ————————————————–

  36. [Simon @420

    The question is will anyone believe him?]

    I made a mistake, he has only promised to stay the full term if the government is re-elected. So if Rudd forms government, and Howard is re-elected, it will resign his seat, and McKew will be elected.

    Why not just cut out the expense and elect McKew immediately.

  39. Gilmore is a funny seat, its held by 9.5% is looks safe, would I be right in calling it a rural area, if so it could bolt considering all the attention in SE NSW in on Edan Monaro.

  40. 59-41 in Qld

    “OUCH” I have the ALP winning or close to winning in up to 14 seats, having watched Politics for a long time I’m starting to wonder are these numbers real!!

    Yes we have been watching them for months!!

  41. “Kina Says:
    September 15th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
    I have posted this before but it is worth a reminder. Not only has Howard lost the support of Cabinet, Costello is not liked by Cabinet. SO their margin of tolerance for two people they don’t want should be fairly slim. NOW if can just get a few nasty outlier polls…..

    “Peter Costello wasn’t invited last week when ministers met to discuss the PM’s future last week. Which may be just as well. A well-placed source tells Crikey that the other main topic of talk was the “deep unpopularity” of the Treasurer amongst his cabinet colleagues.””

    Yes, but you’d expect a Treasurer to be unpopular, if he’s spent 3 terms knocking back your plans to improve healthcare, meet climate change, help working families, etc….hey, wait on, none of these folk put forward any plans like that.. so why would a unassuming Knock about guy, with such a nice grin, and a wife who trims the lemon tree, why would he be unpopular with his colleagues… beats me!

  42. bmwofoz, Gilmore’s coastal regional and was held by the ALP until 1996. It sits on 9.5% only 0.3% less than Kooyong, and that’s blue ribbon. Gilmore is not blue ribbon, maybe more blue rinse.

    I sense she may be in trouble, particularly in her campaigning behaviour.

  43. Howard and Brough are going for the race/xenophobia card wedge again:

    “Labor sending ‘clear signal’ on Indigenous intervention rollback”

    “The Prime Minister says Labor has sent a clear signal it will roll back the Federal Government’s intervention in Northern Territory Aboriginal communities if it is elected to power.”

    “Prime Minister John Howard says Labor has reversed its position on Aboriginal affairs by declaring it would ratify a United Nations declaration on Indigenous rights.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/15/2033796.htm?section=justin

  45. I don’t know why they bother with the aboriginal stuff. People know they don’t really give a crap about them. It’s just yet another desperate attempt to find ‘an issue’.

  46. Kina and others, it’s a STATE voting intentions Newspoll, as I say clearly in my post. It’s best not to extrapolate state votes to Federal votes; we Laborites have suffered too much pain doing that in the past.

  48. Except Lord D I would say to that for the Polls to be right and they are worst for the Liberals federally than at State level then either we are being conned big time by the polling companies or the Liberals are about to disappear!

    The Heartland is coming

  49. In Queensland I have as ALP gains

    Moreton, Bonner, Bowman, Petrie, Dickson, Ryan, Forde, Herbert, Hinkler, Flynn, Leichart, McPherson, Longman, Wide Bay = 14 seats

  50. No, Gilmore is a coastal-exurban-retirement-tourism seat, a newly emerging class of seat which is becoming increasingly important. I’ve thought for a while it’s a potential Labor win despite its large majority. It would have a fairly high “floater” quota. Gash is nice old biddy but hardly A-team material.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 9 of 12
1 … 8 9 10 … 12