Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition

• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.

• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).

• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.

• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.

• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.

• Anyone speak Portuguese?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition”

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  1. Readers of this post should know that Sky’s David Speers is the Liberal Party’s favourite journo in Canberra. If the coalition is re-elected he will join the PM’s press office – taking over from Tony O’Leary. Speers is the most biased television reporter in Canberra – that’s why he is not respected by his peers. He is simply doing a job for Rupert.

  3. For Heaven’s sake!
    I don’t mind the odd bit of sniping -it’s good fun actually, but the recent attempts from Glen are simply woeful. Maybe you should get another hack to log on for a while and see if you can generate something worth responding to.

  5. Rudd is laying bare the total lack of ethics by the Liberals

    this will go down well in voter land

    ps now Costello is trying points of order

  8. There are two times a year when the taxrates are important to a politician Glen. Two times. One when they debate the budget, when the impact of any change / failure to change is important in setting the budget. Important here and even links into the economy. Second time is when they do their own tax return; of course if they get their accountant to do it there is only one time a year it matters.

    The rest of the time the tax scales are trivia. That you and Christian Kerr and tearing your brains in illogical and pathetic ways to try and make this ‘important’ says alot more about your ability for objective analysis than it does about the PM in waiting. I know many tax lawyers who know more about tax law and tax policy than the Treasurer ever would and half of them couldn’t tell you the tax rates because they are such irrelevant triva almost all the time. Find something else please.

  9. Give it up glen. You’ve lost… give it away, and try and find some new unsubstantiated point on which you can announce ‘this is going to be the end of Rudd’.

    Again.

  10. Sure Glen. Actually, it was Kevin Rudd wearing a Peter Phelps mask who made the nazi references, too.

    Dragging this back to something vaguely relevant – this stuff is going to play very, very badly in the electorate. Anyone who thinks otherwise is out of their mind. I really don’t think the “ALP is smearing themselves” has even the slightest chance of deflecting this.

  12. Rudd is gutless he cannot come up with any proof of his allegations so he is out of order…the Libs should just suspend standing and sessional orders…

    Where is just one piece of evidence against the Government???
    Rudd can’t because there isnt any!

    Point is Oakes decided to give Rudd that interview just after he made the gaff he might have contacted him before but he made the interview after the gaff to make it a story!

  13. [Point is Oakes decided to give Rudd that interview just after he made the gaff he might have contacted him before but he made the interview after the gaff to make it a story!]

    Glen,

    Rudd made it CLEAR the Interview took place PRIOR to Rudd going to Queenbyn.

  14. guys, calm down a little.
    losing a point of order is compeltely irrelevant – they are just wanting to interrupt Rudd’s flow. something that they would not allow to have done to the PM…
    Pretty p?*#-weak double standards – don’t interrupt the PM, but constantly interrupt opposition, but what else would you expect.

  15. I really don’t think the “ALP is smearing themselves” has even the slightest chance of deflecting this.

    The only thing it is going to do is to highlight the fact that the libs have repeatedly run dirt-units (take a bow Abbott), and given past actions, everyone will know the reality. And be constantly reminded of it.

    It just shows how disastrously out of touch this government is. The things that used to work, simply don’t anymore. But they lack the imagination to get themselves out of it.

    All we’re getting is ‘more of same’.

  24. From the Hasluck thread.

    [45
    Flaneur Says:
    September 20th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
    [I cant believe the press is saying the Libs brought out that health story …
    the Libs didnt leak the story about Rudd its complete bull butter]

    Crikey reports:

    Good and proper journalist that he is, Oakes is not disclosing who provided him with the medical evidence but he did indicate it came from someone on the Coalition side of politics.]

  25. I’ve heard from a couple of people now that talk radio has been utterly brutal today for the libs – both the health smear and the nazi jibe have seriously upset people. Morgan tomorrow and Galaxy Monday – when are they actually polled? Will we see the results of this in them, or are we going to have to wait another week?

  28. I first watched Question Time in 1971, I used to be behind the camera for CTC-7 (Canberra TV) for Gough Whitlam’s weekly press conferences.

    I ordered goats cheese and kippers for Michael Schildberger’s breakfast after the DD election. 🙂

    I have never seen such a poor Parliamentary performance from a Govt. in 35 years. They had the opportunity to spell out their plans for the future. (Which is surely the only way they can win the election) they stuffed it.

    Abbott and Costello – amateur politicians. They deserve to be tossed out.

  29. [Well, Frank that Crikey report has just shot down Howard and Costello.]

    Yep, and Glen doesn’t want to realise about the timing of the interview either.

    Own Goals from the Govt.

  30. The Nairn CoS making the Belsen comment was given extensive coverage on 10 Late Night News, including footage of the meeting and Phelps making the remark, plus him having a “frank” personal discussion with Kelly after the meeting had ended.

    They also added that Kelly’s in-laws are Jewish. Ouch!

    Apart from the Godwin’s Law aspect, the Nuremberg trials were for the most important captured Nazis (e.g. Goering, Ribbontrop), and few of them expressed genuine remorse for their crimes. I thought the whole point of Kelly’s running for parliament was that he thought the occupation of Iraw was wrong (correct me if I’m wrong, though I’m sure none of you need an invitation 🙂 )

  31. @ 550 Glen Says:

    Anti-Labor sources ‘outside’ parliament cannot mean the Liberal Party.

    Comrade, I hope you’re aware how desperate and stupid this makes you sound.

    Now, we all know that you are neither, but someone reading this would think the opposite.

  33. Anthony, Morgan will more than likely have been taken last weekend but it is possible it was taken during the week. Galaxy will be taken over the next couple of days if it is to come out Monday.

  34. [Now Labor is going to attack Howard of Brisbane 2nd Runway ]

    Nope, Sydney Airport 🙂 But I hope Brisbane is mentioned somewhere.

  37. This is going to go down well in Voter land.

    [Prime Minister John Howard has told Parliament there is not a housing crisis in Australia.

    Mr Howard says a true housing crisis is when there is a sustained drop in the value of house prices.

    In response to a question from Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd, he accused Labor MPs of using cheap language to score political points.

    “It behoves those who sit opposite not to wish for a crisis that, Mr Speaker, does not exist,” he said.

    “For the Leader of the Opposition to use careless language Mr Speaker is aggravating, rather than helping the situation.”]

    http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2038981.htm?section=justin

  39. [BETTING odds for the federal Coalition have seen a greater shift in the past seven days than at any time this year, Sportingbet Australia says.

    And punters now see a late November or early December election.

    The odds of the Coalition Government making it five wins in a row have dropped dramatically in the past few days from $3.70 to $2.85, on the back of bets as big as $10,000, it says.

    However, Labor is still favourite to gain power at $1.43.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22451589-12377,00.html

  40. The bookies have sucked in some money, they needed to. That is why the odds went to $3.70.

    The person who placed the $10,000 bet would be better off playing the pokies.

  41. 589
    Frank Calabrese Says:The odds of the Coalition Government making it five wins in a row have dropped dramatically in the past few days from $3.70 to $2.85, on the back of bets as big as $10,000, it says. However, Labor is still favourite to gain power at $1.43

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22451589-12377,00.html

    I wouldn’t expect any less from The Australian. Probably some of their stooges who put down that$10,000 too 😉 … oh well, easy come easy go. Guess that they have money to burn ;-).

    Re. Frank @ 585, the libs complaining will be answered by the electorate in due course 🙂

  43. 588
    Albert Ross Says:
    September 20th, 2007 at 5:11 pm

    David Hawker: possibly the worst Speaker in the history of parliament.

    Nooe I am afraid that honour goes to Leapin’ Leo.Archie Cameron was pretty bad, I believe.

  45. Crikey reports that a Mac Ban economist has belled the cat on government claims of having a safe pair of economic hands:

    “As an economist, the question I’m increasingly asked is how much would any change of government matter for the Australian economy. From a macroeconomic perspective, my answer is: ‘probably not much’,” Robertson writes in his latest policy watch.

    The interest rate strategist goes on to make the case that it’s not just a matter of Labor being “me too” on macro policy, the role and power of whoever is in government has been reduced.

  48. [on macro policy, the role and power of whoever is in government has been reduced.]

    Of course! We have a market economy, but if you listen to Peter Costello, it sounds like he wants to be back in the U.S.S.R. making 10 year economic decrees from the head of the politburo.

  50. The last Morgan was 59-41 given that the next poll will have been taken last weekend I expect a move to the Libs.

    Bet it is 55,56. Howard triumphant again.

    Now look out for the iceberg 🙂

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