• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.
• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).
• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.
• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.
• Anyone speak Portuguese?
The Age in Melbourne is running an online poll about whether or not Phelps should be sacked for his comments. Currently running at 87% yes he should be sacked.
Costello “Do we hear about policies, do we hear about plans” no Pete what are they?
Should Kelly be dumped as the candidate for saying our troops fighting overseas are just flag wavers??
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/pubpolls.html seems to agree – they polled 24-26 August for a poll out on the 27th August.
The Age is covering the “we didn’t do it, you’re smearing yourself” of today’s QT. I assume someone will get Oakes to confirm or deny that he’d talked to Rudd before the tax gaffe.
And for real giggles, check out the Bolter:
THE Prime Minister¿s house has been listed for sale online for the bargain-basement price of just $15 in an apparent prank.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22451744-12377,00.html
HA HA Glen: you’ve got egg all over your face again.
Watch Channel 9 news tonight: Oakes is set to drop a bucket on Costello.
Just confirmed on ABC Local Radio Sydney that Oakes approached Rudd, prior to the so-called tax gaff, for a comment about his heart surgery.
This makes a lie of Costello’s (and Glen’s) argument that this was released by the ALP.
We’ll see HH but the fact remains they made their interview just after Rudd’s gaff…and anyway Oakes votes for the ALP so of course his opinions are non-bias all the time no!
Next time Rudd makes a gaff his PR team wont be able to save him…
Glen, where is the evidence Oakes is a Labor supporter?
Now we’re on to smearing journalists?
[Glen, where is the evidence Oakes is a Labor supporter?
Now we’re on to smearing journalists?]
If Oakes was an ALP Supporter, he wouldn’t have exposed the Kernot/Evans Affair now would’nt he ?
Gary Nairn is screwed. If I were him, I’d be updating my resume right now, along with 30 or so other Coalition MPs.
Descending into childish namecalling Albert and Pi reflects on your intelligence…learn to debate people with facts not name calling…act your age even if i dont know what they are ill bet you should be above such behaviour.
I’ll be taping Question Time Tonight thats for sure looking like a firey affair…let me guess Rudd will go on 7:30 Report say i am victim and then get away with his gaff…what a joke…Rudd is so gutless that he doesnt have any proof about any Liberal Party Dirt Unit that spread any info on his health who cares if he had a heart condition…it’s his policies or lack thereof that are more worrying!
HH he wrote a book on Whitlam nuff said.
[Descending into childish namecalling Albert and Pi reflects on your intelligence…learn to debate people with facts not name calling…act your age even if i dont know what they are ill bet you should be above such behaviour.]
Mr Pot, Meet Mr Kettle.
Paul Kelly wrote a book on the Hawke/Keating Government, yet you’d hardly call him a mad Socialist.
Keep on digging Glen.
Yes, there has been support for the liberals in the betting but take heart labor supporters. Apparently, Paul Keating was very heavily backed before his hiding in the 96 election. Punters and bookmakers do fear incumbents.
If Team Smirk do happen to win this election, it will be the end of taking polls seriously at any time before the start of the official campaign.
What about Beazley today, what a legend! If there were more human beings with his decency in this world it would be a whole lot better place.
Rudd for PM and Beaz for Australia’s first prisident.
Yes Glen, Beazley for president. Stop this ridiculous monarchy charade. So says Centre.
Re (619),
“Rudd for PM and Beaz for Australia’s first prisident.
Yes Glen, Beazley for president. Stop this ridiculous monarchy charade. So says Centre.”
Centre, while Beazley might make a good president, I think his talents are more suited to UM Ambassador.
Beazley for next U.S Ambassador if Rudd wins.
I’m gonna miss Kim, he was a good soldier and warrior for Labor and working people. All the best for him after politics!
Good to see Kimbo go out to the applause of the parliament, a recognition of a decent man.
Howard has just made his last speech in parliament, related to sleaze and dirt.
How apt.
Glen for the record hun, we all have evidence of the Howard Smear machine, I’m not sure there is anyone in Australia, inside or outside of the Liberal party who would believe for a minute it doesn’t even exist.
At least one part of Government is functioning if it does exist.
[Howard has just made his last speech in parliament, related to sleaze and dirt.]
And notice how shrill he sounded as well, compared to Rudd being cool, calm and to the point.
Thanks for the tip :), got it turned on just in time. Backed Rudd right down the line 🙂
Ha Oakes didnt deny anything just yet HH…
Paul Kelly im not sure about his political persuasion…Oaks who knows but he did write a book on Whitlam his reports are usually more unbiased than some like Paul B and Mark R…but still Oakes did Rudd a favour whether that was his intention or not is another matter entirely…7:30 Report and Lateline will be interesting tonight!
I dont claim the Libs are a shoe in like many Labor supporters think they are a certainty to win…but the Libs arent finished yet…
Point is if Rudd has any proof you’d think he be howling to the moon with it but he has squat…
ooohh, will be on in 2 hours here in WA 🙂 But no doubt it will be well into the Bulletin as the big story here today is this:
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2039046.htm?section=justin
I was home today and got to watch the entire QT. The opposition front bench gave the govt a torrid time but when Rudd finally got stuck into them he was fantastic, a really great performance. He took on Howard, Abbott and Costello and totally ripped them to shreds.
I think he needs to show the public a lot more of this passionate side of himself. Don’t know who ever said he has a “glass jaw” but I suspect the govt is truly regretting giving him the stage to make fools of them as he did today.
What a shame Howard’s last ever speech in parliament was full of vile and negativity. Very appropriate actually: symbolises the Rodent’s entire political career.
Pi its sad you believe all those things about me but its a free country…
More rubbish from the Bulletin.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/Libs_chip_away_at_Rudd_edifice.htm
“Tomorrow’s Morgan Poll in Crikey will show a swing back to the Coalition, I am told.”
Who told? How much?
The Liberal machine and their supporters in the press are full bore into creating this false perception that the coalition is back in town. I’d say they’re actually somewhere near Wangaratta at the moment, km from anywhere.
If Morgan had 59 – 41 last time, what would you expect? The last poll was another rogue poll. Noone really believed the Liberal’s primary vote was so low surely.
Re 627,
“Point is if Rudd has any proof you’d think he be howling to the moon with it but he has squat…”
I believe he did. Seems to me that he said that Oakes told him that it had come from a source hostile to the Labor party. Seems a reasonable leap of assumption to assume that “source hostile to the Labor party” would be the Libs. Those words were Oakes, not Rudd’s except insomuch as he was repeating what Oakes told him.
1. If anyone wants to know further, you need to ask Oakes, not Rudd. He has said as much as he knows.
2. Welcome to suggestions as to what other specific group or individual you can mean by ‘source’ in the above quote from Oakes.
Now off to the TV for the cricket :):):)
[2. Welcome to suggestions as to what other specific group or individual you can mean by ’source’ in the above quote from Oakes.]
Exclusive Bretheren – no doubt they have sources in the Medical Fraternity.
Ch 9 4.30 News (on delay in WA) covering Smeargate – Tim Lester is appearing to back Howard.
Christian Kerr has a piece in Crikey taking a snipe at Rudd. As seems common with Crikey they neglect to mention that Kerr is a Liberal party hack. It makes a big difference on how you read a story knowing who wrote it – it tells you why you wrote it. Kerr piece is simple nonsense and lowers the value of Crikey.
Prior to becoming a writer Kerr was a staffer to South Australian Liberal Senators Robert Hill, Amanda Vanstone and former South Australian Premier John Olsen.
Kina, Crikey was better before it was taken over by real journalists, and when there was a Labor writer as mad as Kerr, for a bit of balance. Although, and it is rare for a Lib, Kerr does have a go at his own side sometimes.
They have some very smart contributors, but the actual ideas, although never as beautifully crafted language wise tend to appear here or places like this first.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Morgan slip back to something like 55-45. That does seem to be the underlying trend, and it appears that there was a sudden spike in ALP support a few weeks ago which has now settled back to the long-term average. That 55% 2PP mark has been pretty constant for months, suggesting that people have made up their minds. Of more interest might be the primary vote, though that too seems to fluctuate in the 46-50 band.
There are suggestions that Costello may have let the cat out of the bag at QT today re election timing, saying that it would be “the last” QT (he corrected himself). Can’t imagine that Parliament in general is a good TV look at the moment, with everyone rather fractious with pre-election fever. With that in mind, I really can’t see Parliament resuming on 15 October, especially since that’s more than three years since the last election (9th).
So I guess we can expect an election to be called in the next couple of weeks, suggesting a 27 October, or 3, 10 or 17 November. My guess is that the first one is too soon, and the 3rd is a long weekend in Melbourne, so 10th or 17th seem like good bets at the moment (with no idea of the odds).
hmm, according to the ABC WEbsite, QT on telly this arvo was from the Senate, is that so ?
Frank, the story on the Bulletin was written yesterday, before today’s QT performance.
Kina, I sent an email to complain about Kerr’s article. It was sheer rubbish and the kind of thing we would expect of a News Ltd pseudo-journalist like Shanahan or Albrechtsen. I didn’t know Kerr was a Liberal Party hack though, so that does explain a few things.
If Howard is saying there’s no housing crisis because the value of people’s homes isn’t falling, he’s made a very stupid statement, which will haunt him in Labor election ads.
1) The value of some homes ARE falling, particularly in areas like western Sydney.
2) There is a crisis for people who want to BUY homes – they can’t afford them.
3) There is a crisis for people who want to RENT homes – there’s not enough homes for rent.
4) Even parents who comfortably own a family home are worried that their children won’t be able to do the same.
5) Judging by what’s happening in the US, there may soon be a more widespread fall in house prices.
So I wouldn’t argue that it’s all the government’s fault (though funding of welfare housing IS an issue there), but the government is stupid to pretend it isn’t happening. It’s a bit like interest rates – I don’t think the public blames the government for rising rates, but blames them for claiming to keep them low. Similarly, it will blame the government for denying there’s a housing crisis. And, of course, now even the backbench believes what Howard is saying. At this week’s party meeting, they were pleading for solutions on housing affordability.
In defence of Christian Kerr, who now and then descends into a hissy fit about the Greens but is usually okay, everyone knows he was a former Lib staffer but he did say recently that he voted Labor in ’01 and ’04. I don’t personally believe him, but he’s entertaining nonetheless.
And there is a Labor writer as mad as Christian – he’s called Richard Farmer. You should hear him lay into our lot! It’s fantastic for Labor voters like me to see them brought down to size.
It might be of interest to readers here that the vast majority of letters to the Boss at Crikey about cancelling their subscriptions due to bias are those complaining about its left-wing bent. I can understand this – the only articulate right-wingers they seem to be able to rustle up are David Flint and Peter Faris (QC), as well as the odd, eternally boring excursion by Gerard Henderson into the comments section.
Doesn’t say much about the right, now does it? Or Crikey’s news-gathering ability, perhaps.
[Frank, the story on the Bulletin was written yesterday, before today’s QT performance.]
I realise that, but it’s indicitve of PBL’s (whoever they are this week) love affair with the Libs.
BTW, House Of Rep’s Question Time will be on ABC TV at 12.20am (this arvo’s coverage was of the senate)
I sometimes wonder how these threads end up the way they do.
Why are we so threatened by how Labor is being portrayed or not portrayed?
If we believe in substance over style then there is nothing to fear.
A bit of pluralism by all of us might show that we (Labor supporters) are bigger than the opposition.
From Trevor Crook’s Blog.
[Will Howard announce the election in his electorate this saturday
Ah the rumour mill is working overtime! I’ve heard that Howard is opening a school fete in his electorate this Saturday and has asked for extra time to make an announcement. ]
http://trevorcook.typepad.com/weblog/2007/09/will-howard-ann.html
William, really!
The behaviour of some our your guests is really quite foolish and ignorant.
Morgan’s last bunch of F2F have been:-
August 4/5 & 11/12……..41.5…. 58.5
August 18/19 & 25/26… 46……..54
September 1/2 …………..39.5…. 60.5
September 8/9……………40.5…..59.5
Now if the next poll is more favourable to the Coalition [different from there being a move to them which would require a few polls to prove] it won’t mean anything until we have had a few more polls.
I’m guess given the last 4 polls that it might be around 58/42
Julie @ 636: It’s quite possible that the “sources hostile to the ALP” could also be some freelancing smear agents *cough*brethren*cough*.
I’d like to think that the Liberal Party aren’t so silly as to think the heart transplant story was a valid line of attack. But then again, Burke and Scores weren’t exactly smears of dazzling brilliance.
Well, for me personally, I won’t be renewing my subscription with Crikey. With good and well-informed blogs like this one, and others, I find that I am reading Crikey much less than I used to. It really isn’t much more than a glorified blog that its readers have to pay for. It rarely has genuine scoops of inside information, but simply re-frames the news that we already know, which is exactly what Kerr does, but frequently with a truly “eyeball-rolling” lack of insight.
Christian I agree totally, but so have been the media commentators on both sides of the debate.
My old mate Alan Reid would be turning in his grave. It’s all about policy.
Why can’t this lazy generation of “journalists” forget the easy headline.
Policy, labor has some, Libs have a bit. We are in a phoney war phase, bring on the election.
anthony baxter, the government probably knew that they would be foolish to actually use the heart story to attack Rudd directly. Even Howard would know that the public would hate them for it. BUT, it is more than plausible for the government to try to leak the information into the public domain as an indirect smear on Rudd, therefore trying to sow the seeds of doubt in people’s minds about Rudd’s fitness.
Given the MANY smears already attempted by the government this year, this latest one seems very much consistent with their general MO.
By the way, I loved this line from Howard today:
“I can beat the leader of the Opposition without resorting to smears.” LOL. So why has he resorted to smears on Rudd in the past then? This line is classic deceitful denial from Howard… it has now become so common that I think a lot of people simply read the OPPOSITE into what he now says.