Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition

• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.

• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).

• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.

• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.

• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.

• Anyone speak Portuguese?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition”

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  1. 647 DLP

    You make a very good point. I’m with you. It’s so easy to get caught up in negative events when so many are doing it. If one person stops, it helps others stop, and the ripple effect continues.

    Let’s hope for a smooth, pleasant election campaign with a comfortable win to Labor, and peace and sunshine thereafter.

  2. [Mr Rudd hit back at the Treasurer with a scathing attack on Mr Costello’s leadership aspirations, saying he had not been brave enough to challenge John Howard.

    “[This is] arrogance unleashed by the Treasurer, the would-be prime minister of this country who has lacked courage year in year out, month in month out, to have the ticker to do anything about his heartfelt aspirations and ambition to eliminate this man,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2039032.htm?section=justin

  8. The Coalition’s attempt to discredit Rudd is fascinating.

    They’ve dug deep, but not found any silver bullets (Rein’s business, Rudd’s health, a visit to a strip club, that he praises Bonhoffer whilst wanting to be the Fuhrer…) If anything, the substantive attacks have back-fired.

    But still, they’ll keep throwing whatever pebbles they can find. Why?

    Simple. They want to goad him into (over)reacting. The real attack in Parliament today was to paint Rudd as ‘thin-skinned’ and ‘glass-jawed’ in response to the goads.

  9. Forget the old journo hacks who sing and dance to the tune of their employer. The best and most knowledgeable political commentators are right here on this site. Laurie Oakes and Kerry O’Brien are obvious exceptions, the vast majority of the rest are waste of space hacks.

    Who do you think our Antony Green votes for? I bet Liberal???

  10. [Frank, the ABC definitely had the Senate on today.]

    So I’ve been told, and have confirmed via theABC TV Guide.

    I’ve been disappointed in the mainstream coverage of Question Time, only focussing on Howard’s little rant and ignoring Rudd’s Comeback after Standing Orders were suspended.

  13. If Only – why did this organisation X pay $10000 go away money? If it was a federal unfair dismissal claim (ie under the old ALP inspired laws) the maximum payout would have been half a year’s salary, less mitigation (and possibly less contributory negligence) with no threat of costs against it (unlike any other form of litigation). If the organisation had as strong a case as you claimed, it could have fought it through arbitration with an advocate of even lesser calibre than the ‘free representation’ (I assume you imply ‘union’ rep or llawyer) the employee had. Indeed, employers can find relatively cheap insurance for such representation and liability (proof in itself that unfair dismissal claims were neither rampant, nor lucrative).

    In litigation, as in business, if you believe you have a strong case, ie the odds are well in your favour, you take the risk.

  14. Just caught the bits from QT on the 7.30 Report and from what I saw you’d think the Coal. might be a bit reluctant to have Parliament sit again. Perhaps Costello has let slip that time’s up. Team Ruddster were really there in terms of taking it up to them; even in the most hostile environment in relation to how the Coal. have manipulated parliamentary functioning. Got to agree with a lot of others, the Coal. will spin it out for as long as it can, before calling the election, however, the ammunition that Labor has, IMHO, they’re gone for all money. Don’t particularly care what the polls say between now and the week before election day, as I’m rather taken with Aristotle’s theory about “polling fog”.

  15. Antony will vote for the Party that generates the most interesting statistics.

    To think Antony is party political is too horrible to consider.

  17. Rudd achieved his goals today regardless of the debate as such as it was.

    Firstly, he gets it on TV and the press [and in the minds of some voters] the issue of Howard and a dirt/smear campaign – a pretty good thing to do at the start of a campaign.

    Secondly, showing himself and others being strong and giving it to the PM and Costello. This helps legitimise him and shows he has stength.

    You would have to give Rudd and Labor the day for this reason.

  19. What we saw today was Rudd passion. And, it completely flumoxxed Howard. They have unleashed another front for the ALP to do them over.

    I am sure there are many more Dad and Dave moments to follow from the Liberal duunvirate. They embarassed themselves today.

  20. [ANGER, accusations and insults ended what is likely to be the last sitting of Parliament before the election, after Labor accused the Government of hiring private investigators to dig up dirt on Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd.

    Question time was suspended and insults were thrown across the chamber for more than an hour as the Government denied mounting a smear campaign against Labor MPs.

    In a sign of the intense campaign to come, Prime Minister John Howard warned Mr Rudd that the scrutiny on him so far was nothing.

    “The leader of the Opposition thinks he’s been smeared – he hasn’t been born,” Mr Howard told Parliament.

    Mr Rudd, who turns 50 tomorrow, accused the Government of leaking details of his heart surgery 14 years ago to raise questions about his health.

    He also raised claims that a forensic accountant was scrutinising the purchase of his family home in Brisbane and that a Government minister gave a journalist a dirt file on deputy Labor leader Julia Gillard.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22453067-5005361,00.html

  21. Howard is gone!!! All he has left is weak barbs at Rudd’s health, what an old fool. He will be gone soon, we can rejoice. I for one can not wait to have an election night party and run out onto the street and publically share in Rudd’s triumph and the rodent’s departure.

  22. learn to debate people with facts

    I’m pleased to see that Glen can at least spell ‘facts’.

    Tell us again about how Howard was Opposition Leader for longer than Brumby before taking office…

  24. “Howard is gone!!! All he has left is weak barbs at Rudd’s health, what an old fool.”

    It is true Howard has never had anything except dirt, filth and pork barreling at election times BUT it is effective when the MSM help out. That will again be a major factor if the Murdoch press again decide to try elect Howard.

  26. Murdoch press is completely in love with the rodents. Such a shame to see someone in a poisoness relationship. Wonder what they will be saying after Rudd wins, probably something along the lines of “well we always knew Kevvie would win and we think that he wil make a great PM”.

  27. JWH has been Austalia’s greatest living actor(err…. PM). Its just that the lines are not as good as they were. Today you saw a great performance but the the sript was bad. Once an actor has a bad sript it is hard not to over act!!!

  28. Can’t wait for when Howard concedes the election, of course it will be everyone elses fault and he will claim that he really won somehow.

  29. Well with Australian Team winning the Cricket and advancing to the semi-finals, I predict our Cricket Tragic PM will postpone calling the election until they win the Cup and Howard will be able to bask in their victory by giving the victorious side a nice civic reception where he will share Centre Stage.

  31. I love my cricket Frank but I really don’t give a rats about 20/20 in the great cricket scheme of things. It’s like… a Sky News phone poll compared to a full-blooded AC Nielsen.*

    *note clever on-topic angle

  32. “our Cricket Tragic PM will postpone calling the election until they win the Cup and Howard will be able to bask in their victory by giving the victorious side a nice civic reception where he will share Centre Stage.”

    Australia could lose.

  33. [I love my cricket Frank but I really don’t give a rats about 20/20 in the great cricket scheme of things. It’s like… a Sky News phone poll compared to a full-blooded AC Nielsen.*

    *note clever on-topic angle]

    Yes, but Howard loves latching onto winners, however miniscule they are, plus he’ll want to avoid campaigning during the entire series, as well as the next fortnight with Football finals.

  34. Did I hear right , that Costello let slip that today was the last sitting day of this Parliament ? That implies JWH will be going to visit the GG at the end of the week then ?

  35. Did anyone watch Difference of Opinion at ABC tonight? The subject was what should the government do with $20 bill surplus.

    John Hewson should have a run for Liberal leader again. I get him this time. John Hewson is what the Liberals should be and that is ‘l’ liberal. He impressed the hell out of me. He said that the present government has basically lied about surpluses being a result of good management and they have squandered a boom period of growth without doing anything with the money.

    Also it was asked of the panel why do the governemnt claim to be good economic managers when they repeatedly underestimate the surpluses. Answer. So they can basically can turn around and say look at how good we are, but it was put that they are bad economic managers because they underestimated, theyby overtaxing the public, then it’s to late to reduce tax to the public.

    You must go to the Difference of Opinion at ABC.

  36. Bluebottle, even if this is the last sitting week (which I don’t think it will be) there are still many weeks before the next sitting period. It doesn’t sit again til 15 October.

  37. [Bluebottle, even if this is the last sitting week (which I don’t think it will be) there are still many weeks before the next sitting period. It doesn’t sit again til 15 October.]

    I reckon Howard wants to wait to see how Galaxy & Newspoll show how today went before he decides when to call the Election.

  38. Yes I saw (am seeing) it now Hewson and Maine (from Crikey) were actually both quite informative. A must see for everyone. Unfortunately most Aussies would be bored to death by it all.

  41. Howard was clearly right when he said that he was “The most conservative leader of the Liberal Party Australia has ever had”

    A big government tax and spend leader at that.

  42. Just goes to show how hight the standard was back in Keating’s time. Hewson was the loser but impresses far more than either Howard or Costello. In fact I think there may be a position for him in the Liberal party shortly.

    Costello and Howard must cringe when they saw this – revealed their mantra as total fakery.

  43. Oh the Liberal Right wingers would hate Hewson and they would bag him to death. But Hewson is the prime example of how much the Liberals have gone to the right and how much Labor has gone to the centre…or did the public shift?

  46. John Hewson should have a run for Liberal leader again. I get him this time. John Hewson is what the Liberals should be and that is ‘l’ liberal.

    Keating did a great disservice to this country by the way Hewson was defeated. Keating made Howard possible.

    Hewson would have been a great liberal leader.

  48. The Treasurer can assure the House indeed, that all power rests in the Prime Minister.

    This Gillard creature is only a heartbeat away from the ALP Leadership, and she has not enough heart to run any country.

  49. barbara Says:

    Costello runs like a girl

    I think that’s mean to associate all nice girls with the louse Costello, he runs more like a coward, a man with no ticket, no hope and a very very cloudy and long career on the opposition benches, if not the unemployment office… Oh to dream!!!

  50. I voted for Hewson and he impressed at the time as being a guy who was ready to make tough decisions and look far into the future. Keating won of coarse and after getting rid of Hewson and going thru Downer, etc as leaders the Libs swung hard right. Now I don’t support them any more and feel comfortable with Labor who have also swung to the right. Labor are the new “small l” Liberals and the Liberals are the new Tories/Neo Coms.

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