• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.
• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).
• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.
• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.
• Anyone speak Portuguese?
This must be the 1000th time this year Downer has appeared on Lateline. Can’t Tony Jones find someone else to interview?
This week of politics reinforces in the publics mind the reasons for opposing this government; arrogance, hubris, and abuse of parliamentary democracy. The Newspoll seemed to be, as Gillard indicated, a sympathy/stay where you are (so we can vote you out) poll, and last weeks reporting followed a ‘lets pity poor old John’ mentality. Morgan will discount/ prove the shift, I hope its the former.
The smear and negativity has again been unleashed, and Howard is back to his arrogant, negative self. Also, the ‘John can still win’ reporting should bolster the ALP’s vote, the baseball bats are being polished.
Not a good look: the PM and treasurer giving her majesties opposition the finger, accusing a former CoS as a ‘phoney’ lacking policy direction (despite releasing substantial details: look at the ALP website), attacking Kelly as a Nazi, and raising questions of Rudd’s health.
What is left? The mother of all fear & smear campaigns as well as policy on the run (to Ken Henry’s consternation). Nothing short of the sky will fall in if Howard loses.
Dont fret: WorkChoices, Iraq, Climate change, nuclear reactors near you, neglect of education, health, infrastructure, interest rate lies, blame the states (and everyone else). Just for starters.
And dont forget, word of mouth is the most powerful medium to influence voting intention, so for those wishing for a fairer Australia free of the Howard govt., go talk to a swinging voter, it works wonders.
Glen,
I wrote that “brazilian” reference then I do speak portuguese – but english… 🙁 – Webcetera is a meta-blog, most about tendencies.
Back to the post, Karma Policeman is right, the article I wrote mention your blog among others as an independent source. I do not comment about political point of views but the fact that you all are relevant even disconnected (I hope that’s the right word) from a large media group.
One of the country’s largest newspapers (http://www.estadao.com.br) launched an advertising campaign disqualifying independent blogs as an reliable source of information or analysis on any field. I used some of Mr. Murdoch’s recent statements and how some Australian blogs cover the Federal Elections as an counter proof of that.
A Brazilian guy reading an Australian political blog? As I said, it is “most about tendencies”, and humans are humans all around the globe.
Congratulations and thank you.
#295 WG(a)R – You’ve pretty much hit the nail on the head in regard to my concerns about the gap between the major parties in the polls. The Coalition will say & do anything to be re-elected – their objective is power &, in order to attain it, no cost is too great. The further behind they are, the more I am concerned about the lengths they will be willing to go to.
That being said, I think Rudd’s mistake on tax brackets was amateurish – you shouldn’t start issuing challenges for debates unless/until you know the price of a loaf of bread …
HH @ 301- I agree- way too much air time for him, or maybe it just seems like longer when he is on…..
# 16 Graeme Says:
September 19th, 2007 at 10:16 am
Wonder if the author knew that Brazil has marsupials too…
Downer is just come on – is it worth watching?
Kina
I find him more worthy (and amusing) with the sound off.
Oh dear, Al was caught slyly referring to notes on tax scales. Own goal I think, at a critical point in the game.
“worthy”. Perhaps not the best word to use.
Why wasnt Rudd smart enough to have a cheat sheet Simon, shows how much of a noob he is…how can Australia get a decent tax policy from Labor when their leader doesnt understand the tax system in its basic form lol…
Only a leader of less than 1 year would make those types of amateurish mistakes over and over like with productivity and now with tax rates…
Rudd has no experience and ive said it will cost him and it has already…own goal…
Shows how desperate the ALP are that they troll out the record of a staffer who abused Kelly…strange how they find this comment disgusting and not Kelly’s brazen foul remarks that our service men and women overseas are merely flag wavers…hypocrites as usual but then all politicians are arent they.
Labor’s descent motion against Hawker was just so that Costello couldnt continue to trash Learner Rudd about his inexperience lol what a pathetic tactic…
Rupert, please stop trying to post that bloody Kevin Rudd joke.
Thanks to Marcos #303 for writing in. Interesting that he thinks Glen runs the blog. Perhaps he does? (Cue music from the Twilight Zone.)
A timely reminder perhaps that the blogosphere thrives on inaccuracy, allowing of course for problems in translation. (Cue Bill Murray?)
Don’t know where me last post went to, but I’d also mention it was David Speers that broke the Liberal leadership story about Alexander Downer canvassing the cabinet about whether they still supported Howard. I find most of the allegations of journalists being biased, reflect unfairly on their professionalism, yes there is a difficult symbiotic relationship in the interaction between the press gallery and politicians that sees journos forced to attempt to balance the need for information with the need to maintain a critical stance, but I find some of the negative carping exaggerated to the ridiculous.
The main thing I see that can prevent Labor winning the election is a unclear tax and spending policy, the Howard government will tear into them for prehaps putting the budget back into deficit. Even something like scrapping all the various vote buying measures that the Howard government has introduced over the last several years or even the future fund and say plough the money into tax cuts or even more spending on infrastructure or expanding medicare to cover dental or more funding for education (especially teritary) would help a lot in changing the electoral view towards a Labor government managing the economy.
While I support a deregulated Labor market with a simple mininium wage, freedom for employers to hire and fire
Cont from 313
While I support a deregulated Labor market with a simple mininium wage, freedom for employers to hire and fire, along with basic mininium conditions which would mean paying a mininium of regular rates for overtime. Is the only way to reduce unemployment, realistically given this lengthy period of growth unemployment should be 2% now, not 6% (adjusting for the fudging of the figures they do for who is considered unemployed).
I just do not see voters especially those who make and break governments supporting such measures.
My last carefully crafted missive was swallowed by the spaminator … will try the precis version!
With all the OTT ‘not fit to lead the country’ hoo-ha from the Libs about Rudd fumbling on tax scales – as if Advanced Bean-counting is an essential quality in a Prime Minister, I’m surprised nobody has contrasted it with when Howard forgot the name of Liberal candidate in Tasmania – and the fact Rudd said at the time that such a thing could happen to anyone in a high-pressure campaigning environment.
Sure hope ‘generosity of spirit’ resonates in the electorate, we’re all long overdue for some and the Libs’ tank has well and truly ran out
Last chance, Rupert.
I had a “spaminator” on for about 15 minutes, but it was doing more harm than good. Apologies if any innocent posts were lost (I’ve also been deleting quite a few for various reasons).
Last I heard, Howard and the Libs were outspending Labor 3:1.
William, I’ve had two posts that weren’t accepted.
Do you know why please?
When it comes to IR you can easily say that if they payed the bare minimum wage and conditions to everyone employment would be at 100%. In fact let the bare minimum be set by business to ensure full employment [as Howard said he wanted to do in the 1980s]. This simply points to a working-poor aka USA which is what WorkChoices will eventually produce.
Seems that Australians, the owners of the country, the payers of tax and whom the Govt is voted in by and supposed to represent is not permitted to share in the prosperity of the country. Instead it is better to export it to somewhere else.
In fact I guess you can say indentured servants would be even better as long as business ensured food and shelter what could they complain about?
Now of course the one thing that cannot be touched is profit margins. So if a business makes 10% then 15% and then 20% but unemployment is increasing they wont be requested to reduce margins to help unemployment. Seems it works one way but not the other.
Labor supports free trade, though it refuses to abandon the need to protect workers rights and conditions. Australians should never be treated like commodities to be traded without consideration of their standard of living.
Hence the current predicament of Howard, who failed to read about Bruce (or was blinded by his self-imposed aura of invincibility) , and deregulated the labor market with a simple, grossly inadequate, minimum wage, and imposed the “freedom for employers to hire and fire”. Lets not worry about rent/mortgage, food, petrol, spare time, for the millions of working Australians who expect to be treated humanely by their elected representatives, and the complete absence of job protection.
The proliferation of an Australian ‘working poor’, needs to be stopped. The only way to achieve this is with a change of government.
Tristan Jones
The question that you need to address is should the ability of an employer to hire and fire be unfettered?
Is this right to hire and fire is not unfettered where do you draw the line.
Can women be fired because they wont put up with sexual harassment for example?
Can apprentices be fired because they complain that they are not getting the training they are supposed to be getting?
Can an employee be fired for misbehaviour without any evidence?
Can an employee be fired because of his religion or ethnic background?
Where do you draw the line if you believe a line should be drawn?
If you believe that any of the examples given above are valid how do you propose to enforce any prohibition on such behaviour.
Downer cheating has been reported 🙂
[Yesterday the Government used Question Time to exploit Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s slip up on income tax rates.
But last night on Lateline, Mr Downer was also caught out needing his own prompting when he was asked if he was checking his notes.
“I Don’t want to set myself a test! But I think you’ll find the next threshold, the 40 cent rate comes in at 75 thousand,” he said.
“I think I know [the tax thresholds] pretty well.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/19/2038164.htm
Rudd’s ‘weak heart’ a smear campaign: Labor
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/19/2038164.htm
Kina,
“Snap” I just posted the same link which mentions Downer cheating.
Certainly, Mr Costello is an expert on tax. After all, he gleefully and greedily counts into his massive coffers everyday the taxes paid by Australian working families.
The modern day Mr Scrooge, reluctantly handing over a few bob to working families, pensioners and so on. Every three years, or is it four now.
All the while loading up he and John Howard’s big end of town with tax breaks, gigantic free of tax superannuation schemes etc.
Mr Costello does not know or care about for that matter, how tough is the going is for working families, on Work Choices, struggling with child care expenses, fighting to survive under the innumerable mortage rate increases under his watch, pensioners barely surviving, mature age and disabled people suffering under his stingy ‘it’s good to suffer’ approach.
Mr Costello certainly doesn’t know or care about the level of hardship endured by HECS students, as they work on subsistence wages on AWA’s, to meet their rent and food costs, all the while trying to prop up the skills shortage holding back this nation’s future.
He certainly would know the tax rates. He has a vested interested, after all.
Mr Scrooge knows all about money gathering. Nothing of disbursement.
Not yet, it isn’t election time.
A little bit of Downers drivel made it into the SMH
Downer coy on PM’s wife at meeting
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Downer-coy-on-PMs-wife-at-meeting/2007/09/19/1189881599565.html
See #316, Scorpio.
Howard’s embarassment appears on the horizon
Gore fired up over inaction
“I said it in Australia before and I will say it again, if Australia ratifies Kyoto, it is like Australia and the United States are Bonnie and Clyde in the world of environment,” Mr Gore said.
“And if Clyde is isolated and Bonnie has gone straight, Clyde won’t really be able to resist any more.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22448352-952,00.html
Oh and something interesting
Labor landslide tip in bellwether seat
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22448780-601,00.html
OK, thanks William. A shame, I thought one was pretty good too.
Good news for Eden Monary in the GG.
{LABOR is headed for a landslide victory in the crucial federal bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, according to leaked ALP research.
The polling, obtained by The Australian last night, found the count would not even go to preferences, with Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22448780-601,00.html
who gives a rats #321
To extend that
The question that you need to address is should the ability of a customer be unfetted
Can a purchase be refused because they wont put up with sexual harassment?
Can a customer walk out if the shopkeeper complains they are taking too long.
Can an salesman be be refused for misbehaviour without any evidence?
Can an shop be avoided because of his religion or ethnic background?
The decision on how to spend money should be left with the person with the money.
Case
Employer, a not for profit organisation paying 10% above award
Employee, on two warnings
Employee suspected of theft, rather than take immediate action, Employer pays to have an audit
Auditor finds malfeasance
Employee terminated
After the expiry date for appeal for unfair dismissal, employee appeals.
Court decides to hear the appeal
Employee gets free representation
Employer pays for an industrialrelations lawyer
Employee threatens defamation
Two hearings before court, both times the court encourages a settlement.
Each time, Management Committee appears (volunteers taking time off work already)
After second appearance, Management Committee agrees to pay $10,000 because of ongoing legal costs and they could be held liable if they allowed the employee to return and the organisation suffered further loss.
End result, employer loses audit cost, legal fees and payment to employee.
Mr Costello is not an expert on tax.
Any idiot can learn the tax scales and Rudd should have, and he should have admitted he didn’t know and referred them to Swan when he didn’t have that detail. But it is a trivial detail.
An expert on tax understands either the tax law or the policy of tax, or both and Costello I don’t think has shown much of either in 11 years.
Kina Said at #319:
“When it comes to IR you can easily say that if they payed the bare minimum wage and conditions to everyone employment would be at 100%.â€
I would have to disagree with this comment Kina and the Governments suggestion that we can reach 100% employment.
Firstly, it is many years since I did economics at Uni but one thing I do remember was that there are a number of different types of unemployment.
One of this was called structural unemployment.
Structural unemployment can be attributed rapid developments in technology, with workers being displaced because their skills do not match with those required.
Also, capital equipment may be substituted for expensive labour.
In view of the rapid changes in technology I would expect that a substantial part of unemployment in Australia falls into this classification.
Just for the record I also remember
Cyclical unemployment – occurs because of variations in the level of economic activity (business cycles).
Frictional unemployment – includes those workers who are temporarily unemployed because they are between jobs.
Hidden unemployment – covers people who have been discouraged from seeking employment
Seasonal unemployment – is the result of the seasonal nature of work in some industries, e.g. fruit and grape picking.
Long-term unemployed – These are workers who have been out of work for more than twelve months. This type of unemployment is usually the result of structural unemployment. The long-term unemployed do not always have the skills to match job vacancies.
Hard-core unemployed – those people who are considered unsuitable for employment due to personal characteristics.
As the economy is continually changing the chance of getting unemployment to zero is next to nil.
If I have any of these mixed up I am sure someone will point it out.
I was being rhetorical. Full employment of the employable and those not wanting to starve and ignoring those that are in the process of changing jobs. ;]
One thing about John Howard, he won’t leave a spare dollar unused if he has to to win this election.
{THE Howard Government has spent as much as $1 million a day on taxpayer-funded advertisements about its achievements, according to Kevin Rudd.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22443104-11949,00.html
“Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent”
This similar to the internal polling on Sydney & Melbourne from last week. Seems like the Labor party is having to pinch itself every time it does a poll.
Ifonly
I am unable to discern the point you are making.
Firstly, a customer is in a completely different position to an employee. Comparing the two is, like the add says, “comparing apples and orangesâ€
As a customer you can conduct transections where and when you like for whatever reasons you like as long as you have the cash to pay.
As for the example of the salesmen I suspect that there is more to the story than your report. However, accepting that all other facts have the same “colour “to them it is no argument against “Unfair Dismissal Lawsâ€.
Because someone gets off, say, a ‘murder charge, for whatever reason, does not support the argument that murder laws should be repealed.. What happens is that the laws are amended to remedy any deficiencies.
Labor needs a tax policy. They’ve always been vulnerable on this point, now much more so because Rudd looked like a fool today.
Who Gives a rats #336
The point is that there is no control over the behaviour of those who purchase labor or materials when they are an individual eg buying a car but it seems as though there are laws that can compel a person to spend money buying dishwashing when they are a sole trader.
I suspect they are waiting for the Govt to bring out their tax policy. Not wanting to be wedged. It is not such a big deal yet. Rudd did OK on AM it is only those more closely focussed to the battle that feel worried by it.
You can bet no matter what policy they bring out the govt will say it is goining to wreck the economy, cost jobs etc. So the plan might be to wait for the govt’s then shadow it as much as possible to reduce the wedge factor.
Conceded Coalition defeat, Alexander Downer?
Just heard on ABC radio that Alexander may move to SA Parliament, subsequent to the Federal election. The loss of power in one’s base is clearly an incentive to create another.
I have commented elsewhere that Christopher Pyne is busy shoring up the future of the Liberals in South Australia, restructuring the Liberal Party constituency.
Now it appears we have not only Minchin and Pyne, but now Downer moving to this base, grouping against the Rann Government.
Christopher Pyne is campaigning with a petition regarding water issues he offers to people as he travels his electorate. I do not know how it is framed, but at last hearing Christopher Pyne claims to have 10,000 signatures, imploring I suppose an answer to the big dry.
A government which is pretty well thought to be in disregard to the desperate water situation we find ourselves in cannot remain untouched by this approach.
In sum.:
Alexander’s cause is lost. Labor will win the Federal election.
SA Labor will lose at the next election.
Disenchantment, solidifying about July 2007.
Probably Mike Rann needs to offer little than self help to lose. Guess Alexander thinks he may as be part of the inevitable action.
And I am not a Liberal voter.
Ifonly
It must be getting late because I am at a lose in trying to understand your point.
There are a number of laws which govern out personal and business transactions..
There is the law of contract where we purchase goods and services. This is also supported by the Trades Practices Act and the in the case of corporations the Corporation Law.
The relationship between an employee and employers is governed by what we now call IR Law but was original covered by the Master Servant relationship.
The Unfair Dismissal Laws were just part of the of the laws governing the relationship between employees and employers.
Your claim that that there is no control over the behaviour of those who purchase labour or materials when they are an individual is incorrect. As I mentioned above there is the Trade Practices Act and the law of Contracts. There is also the States IR Laws that now do not apply to corporations. The Commonwealth covers corporations with what was called “Workchoicesâ€.
You statement that “it seems as though there are laws that can compel a person to spend money buying dishwashing when they are a sole trader†does not make sense.
However, remember that in most cases a sole trader is an individual.
As I am having trouble getting to grips with your argument I should say that there are a whole ranges of Laws that impact on how a business trades. As an example the food industry has heaps of laws governing what and what not they can do.
As I am struggling with you argument I think I will hit the hay. I will look for your reply tomorrow
Night.
I am amazed that the SA govt has dropped the ball on water which was obviously going to be a major issue for them. [I used to be SA]
But isn’t this always the case? The federal govt is opposite of the State govts.
Downers intention if true is a badly kept secret then and hardly one you would want slip just before an election. Downer must think a loss is such a high possibility that he his working out his next carreer. Probably figures as a Liberal State govt leader he can help the Liberal federal govt campaign next time around. Makes you wonder how many other Govt ministers are planning a different carreer at the moment.
I wonder if he will deny it. I can’t see it on the ABC news site yet.
me again. First of all, I made a mistake in my previous comment, sorry for not addressing to you William.
After reading some of the comments I think it is better to make something clear: I understand I can’t write in english but I found someone who can’t read portuguese: Google translator. Please do not assume that result as something even remotely close (the beauty of a contradiction) to the original.
Graeme, I don’t think of Murdoch as a “puppeteer”, I think that of us all. Some people use their mouth to convince a neighbor, others start a blog and Murdoch uses his media empire. Same act, different scale. Of course mass murder and a single kill are not the same, but both are crimes. The question is: who wants to be a puppet?
The main point in that post is this simple: if someone is reading pollbludger (and clicking on the ads) he/she is not reading “The Australian”, to name just one, and they are loosing money. It is really just that. There is no other reason for Murdoch and brazilian media groups disqualify independent blogs. Why did I use the Australian federal elections? Because you are on the other side of the world. Had I used local (brazilian) examples a few passions would be raised.
Crispy, the phrase you pasted is really impossible to understand but I won’t talk about online translation tools again, what I said is: the “blogueiros” (bloggers in brazilian portuguese) didn’t ordered the poll themselfs. I did not say they don’t have an agenda, just that they are not committed to the “ordering a poll” business operation.
And Pi, of course there are marsupials in Brazil, lots of them, but we are not marsupial land the same way Australia is not rainforest land, despite north Queensland. It is common knowledge, i write for the common people not for bio students.
Now I better go back to my silent reader role.
I searched high and low for details this morning and at first couldn’t find them. But when I googled “Adelaide Advertiser” to get the local papers URL I found the story. Anyone who wants details can do the same. Apparently he is serious and serious enough that he might do it no matter what the election result is. Yes, I too am curious as to why he would let it leak unless he knows that the Libs won’t win. I went to bed and didn’t see Lateline (wouldn’t watch it with his loudmouth on it anyways). Did the story leak before or after the Lateline show? In otherwords, did the host get a chance to ask him some questions about it?
Crikey Whitey, what are you talking about, Rann losing? Because of Downer going back? I don’t think so.
It seems that what is going on, is the same that is happening in the Eastern states that the press is picking up, the Liberals are starting to restructure the party ahead of what they know is coming. It looks as though they are trying to reform the state based organisation they historically were. I think it is a very interesting move and especially that it has been made public, but the main short term impact must surely be on the federal rather than on the state liberals
Rudd’s ‘tax gaffe’ plus any other day-to-day occurrence are completely irrelevant in the scheme of things. Wishful thinking though people.
Costello made an error on his tax cuts yesterday, he was only wrong by $4.5 billion. 🙂
This is what I was hinting at yesterday.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/onezero-in-the-tax-gaffes/2007/09/19/1189881595552.html
And perhaps the higher limit (175K) mentioned by Rudd may be the Labor bracket from a new policy?
Just a thought.
Labor need to publicise the Downer escape policy. They should criticise the government for a lack of an exit strategy in Iraq, but in praise Downer for having his own personal strategy.
Tom.
I think Costello has been very ‘courageous’ in putting the boot into Rudd over the tax rates ‘gaffe’.
As the ‘anointed’ future prime minister we (the electorate) ought to expect that he has a firm knowledge of all portfolios including Foreign Affairs and trade – oughtn’t we? I’ll be keeping a firm eye on QT today but I do wonder if Keating wasn’t spot on with his criticism of Rudd’s advisors. So many golden opportunities seem to be missed.
For instance, the recent criticism of the number of enquiries announced by Labor could, at least in part, be countered by pointing out the number of amendments required by rushed and/or ill-conceived legislation e.g. Workchoices, NT Intervention etc.
Here’s the Downer link.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22448059-5006301,00.html