• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.
• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).
• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.
• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.
• Anyone speak Portuguese?
I’ve been off the site for a few days, but want to add my little contribution to the earlier debate on this thread about whether the polls got it wrong on the defeat of Kennett.
In fact, there was clearly a late swing to Bracks, and the polls were pretty spot on (ie 50/50) by election day. The big swing in regional areas certainly helped, but the fact is that the polls were fairly accurate by the end. It’s just that no-one would believe them.
I think the late swing was due to a fear by voters that Kennett would continue service and spending cuts, and privatisation, if he was re-elected, even though the Victorian economy had had its health restored by then. They saw a Bracks-led Labor Government as a possible end to the reform fatigue (and they were right).
But there’s another factor in the 1999 Vic election result that few people seem to have noticed. Bracks was incredibly lucky. Virtually every seat that was close eventually went to Labor in the final count. The coalition hardly won a close seat. Geelong, for example, was wwon by Labor by just 16 votes (from memory). If any one of these close seats had gone to Libs, the resut could have been different, the independents may have been persuaded by back Kennett etc. In a normal election, you expect the close seat result to be split 50/50. But Kennett lost nearly all of them.
Why should Rudd release his tax policy now, when we haven’t yet seen the Charter of Budget Honesty. That will be released in the first week or so of the election campaign proper.
You wouldn’t release something as important as a tax policy without knowing how much you had to spend. And I suspect Labor would want to fund its education, health etc policies first, then consider tax cuts with what’s left over. The Coalition usually works the other way round. That’s not necessarily a criticism, just an observation about priorities.
And as for teh attacks on Rudd’s health, over a heart operation 14 years ago, it just gives Rudd a chance to promote the fact that he walked the Kokoda Track. As long as he doesn’t mention the Channel 7 t-shirts…
Marcos Viterbo, if you’re still dropping in, nice to hear from you. Our gags yesterday were meant to be at the expense of Google Translator, not your article.
Your point was well made. Those who pay for the polls feel a strong sense of ownership… ‘proprietorial’ is the word I think. And in the case of Newspoll here, the newspaper that publishes it owns a chunk of the company that conducts the poll. Nevertheless The Australian’s commentary has been misleading and partisan. Even the guy who runs the poll company is on record talking a lot of rubbish about his own results.
So yes, little wonder that blog commentary is taking off. It can be partisan and inaccurate too, but also full of gems.
Thanks Antonio… just the explanation I was looking for. I guess the lesson to be learned is the polls could change dramatically during a campaign?
On Labor’s tax policy, I thought they confirmed they weren’t going to have one going to the election? Personally, I’m not a tax expert and am pretty happy with the amount of tax I pay at the moment. As to whether they reform company taxation I couldn’t care less. I’d be pretty happy with a ‘me too’ on tax policy for the ALP.
The coalition has only themselves to blame for Labor not releasing their tax policy, it was Hewson with his GST and the cake blunder that made it poison to release a tax policy before the campaign. Not even Fightback Mk II could save him, and that was to clarify a few things. From what I read here, Howard didn’t release his tax policy in 96 until right near the end.
I wouldn’t worry about Downer being the SA premier anytime soon, have you seen the sort of swing the Liberals need to win here? A good example is my state seat of Colton which was basically the seat Rann won in 2002 that enabled him to have a chance of forming a minority government. This seat is now held by a margin of 16.4% ! And before anyone asks, this seat has had little if any boundary changes. I think Downer would be better running off to France to practice his French.
I don’t think Downer was serious. It was just a chance to have a swipe at a state Labor government.
This to me is a complete waste of $330,000. This government has too money on its hands, but doesn’t know where to spend it. How about health, education and infrastructure. I don’t ever remember calling a golf course being infrastructure.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2038303.htm?section=justin
Rudd forgot the tax thresholds.
Costello forgot the size of the tax cuts.
Downer forgot the parliamentary term limit.
Howard forgot a codnidates name.
Such matters are absolutely trivial in terms of public policy and that cheerleaders like Glen are reduced to arguing which memory lapse is better or worse just shows how deparate they have become. If accurate recall of facts and figures on call was the hallmark of political ability then Brendan Nelson would be PM, heaven help us.
The weirdest thing about the Phelps smear is this: follow the analogy through and you will find that Phelps is comparing Howard to Hitler. Or perhaps it’s Howard/Mussolini and Bush/Hitler.
Either way it’s an astoundingly clumsy attempt to smear a brave, decent man.
Glen is clutching at straws, like most conservatives. And I suppose Glen also endorses the smear campaign obviously in operation right now.
Apparently the Coalition has detected a shift in the public’s mood and attention since Newspoll. What a load of BS. Basing a mood on one poll which is coming off the back of a rogue poll is desperation personified.
If they’ve detected such a mood they should call the election. Who knows when it could shift again.
I don’t know if it’s fair to say than Glen endorses the smear campaign. He seems to regurgitate it with soupy enthusiasm, but seems not to understand much of it. Only rarely does he back up his talking points or respond to reasoned debate with reasoned debate in turn.
This might me verging on the pedantic, but don’t you need to understand something before you can truly endorse it?
This might BE verging on the pedantic.
Another example.
Glenn, along with all drowning conservatives right now, is clutching at any floating device possible. They see the boat sinking. They really know it’s gone but are hoping to hell what they believe is happening is only a bad dream. Keep the head above water Glenn but the end is near I’m afraid.
When are the next polls due?
Morgan due in 26 hours 31 mins. More or less.
I think a Galaxy is due in the Terror on Monday… usually leaks on Sunday night…
Friday lunchtime then Crispy?
Thanks – phone or F2F?
I ask because apparently the phone Morgan tends to favor Labor!!
Do they speak French in SA? Do they have more Fench than Mandarin speakers? Is this peut-etre why Dolly is thinking of scaling down? Dolly in SA and Bishop in WA – what next Howard for Premier in NSW?
Early in the year Morgan was polling F2F on two weekends and releasing combined results fortnightly, but filling in between weeks with a smaller phone poll. But over the last month or so Morgan has been releasing each weekend’s F2F polling the following Friday. Smaller sample therefore, but it’s a methodology Morgan feels more comfortable with I think. And it keeps Morgan in the news… or at least the blogs. The MSM seem to ignore the poor man these days.
So tomorrow should give us a F2F Morgan with a sample of 800ish.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, William et al. I’m only recently addicted.
Driving through Queanbeyan this morning I noticed Gary Nairn has set up his campaign office. Looks like the silly season is almost upon us.
“I ask because apparently the phone Morgan tends to favor Labor!!”
Also, strangely, the perceived wisdom* was that the F2F Morgan was biased 2 points to Labor, as opposed to the more ‘accurate’ phone driven Newspoll. And yet when Morgan did phone polling, Labor’s vote seemed to be a further 2 points higher than the F2F! Psephs were scratching their heads over that one. I suspect everyone’s quite relieved Mr Morgan’s sticking with his clipboards and uni students.
*wisdom perceived mostly by Steven Kaye and friends, but not without wider support.
Crispy, you are even more of a poll nut than I am lol ….. my kids thought I was a little off because I have a piece of paper here next to the computer which I keep updated with which polls are coming out next.
Soozie, that would happen only in a parallel universe. The Libs are so disorganized here in NSW that they wouldn’t be able to recognize a truck even if it were about to run them over. And besides, Howard carries so much baggage that he couldn’t pass muster with the NSW electorate anyways.
In other news about Bennelong. I note similar polls done by Morgan at a similar time in 2001 had Howard romping it in with 57% of the 2PP.
However, note that even though Howard’s margin shrunk at the last election he only just had to go to preferences.
soozie @ 371 and julie @377
Howard will be the next Ambassador to Iraq! whichever party wins the election, none of his successors will want him around!
Beazely up in Parliament (Sky News) for next 30 minutes giving his last speech in Parliament ahead of retiring at the election …..
HA HA HA,
Downer is going back to the 2nd XI
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2038438.htm
Howard, Bishop, Downer, Nelson and Bush can all sharing a house in downtown Baghdad. They wouldn’t want tocut and run. Only $4,500 pm
http://www.sublet.com/spider/SupplyDetails.asp?SupplyID=198703&SupplierID=169103&state=Iraq&city=Baghdad&StateCount=Less
From story posted by Timbo @ 381
Mr Rann says he would love to face Mr Downer as his sixth Liberal opponent.
“In one stroke Alex has undermined both John Howard and South Australian Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith,” he said.
“I mean he’s jumping ship on John Howard and putting his famous stiletto in the back of Martin Hamilton-Smith as state Opposition Leader.”
Classic!!! 🙂
There is a Courier Mail poll on if Rudd is a manufactured man.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/
I notice this one is open to manipulationg, you can turn off cookies and multiple vote as often as you like. I don’t know why they dont change their system.
No, if accurate recall of facts and figures on call was the hallmark of political ability, then Barry Jones would be Prime Minister, and I’d have at least an outside chance of being a minister myself.
I think the next week will a gaffe-athon, if you’re a politican you’ll have to remember every statistic under the sun. Already its claimed its first victim
Govt MP thinks mince is $12/kg
Nationals MP De-Anne Kelly clearly buys the best meat in town after saying mince was $12 a kg.
Coles is advertising its three star regular beef mince for $5.99 a kg and even its top of the range five star extra trim beef mince is below Ms Kelly’s estimate at $10.84 a kg.
The Queensland Nationals MP made the comment after attacking Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd for failing to name all the tax rates during a news conference on Wednesday.
“He (Mr Rudd) needs to know how real people live, what the tax rates are, the price of milk
http://au.news.yahoo.com/070920/2/14gys.html
Mr. Costello can you inform us of the value of Pi to ten decimal-places?
Mr. Beazley can you name the world-record time for the 100 metres dash?
Ms. Gillard what was the 2007 per capita GDP?
Mr. Katter how many square-metres are in the Murray River basin?
Its going to be just like Chaser’s Trivial Pursuit episode for the next couple of days.
William. ‘Portugese’ was fine spelling when writing in English. ‘Portuguese’ is for us fauxs who studied it once at uni.
I live in Moreton. For many many months, starting surprisingly early this year, there was a huge billboard of Rudd and the candidate adorning Gladstone Rd, a v.busy thoroughfare. It was replaced two weeks back by a commercial sign, and i’ve not seen others in the area.
Am i reading way too much into this to think Labor might move resources out of marginals if they think they are ‘in the bag’? Or is it normal to abandon a site even this close to the election, because (eg) it is assumed that roughly the same people use the same road each day?
The Liberal dirt unit kicks another own goal.
I predict another increase in Rudd’s popularity rating in the next poll.
Does anyone believe Wayne Swan’s claim that private investigators have been employed to trawl through Kev’s medical records?
The media tend to make a huge fuss over pollies’ gaffes, but I don’t think it has any real impact. I think being very negative about Rudd, who has a 65% approval rating, will rebound on the govt, as the Yank pollster Frank Luntz suggested. The next Morgan will probably be a f2f, and be taken last weekend, so sympathy could play a part in that poll. Polls taken next weekend may well be different, as sympathy will have well and truly worn off for the govt.
a rise in Rudds popularity?
Is it possible to go any higher!
hehe
Mr Phelps, chief of staff to Minister Nairn, has kicked a big “own goal”. Eden Monaro has a large number of serving Officers of the Defence Forces living within it. They will be unimpressed with the slur visited upon them by the foolish advisor!
Mike Kelly will turn E-M into a safe seat for the ALP, with the assistance of the Libs.
Well judging from most of the comments on Matt Price’s column about Rudd’s “gaffe”, most people couldn’t care less that he made a mistake.
The RSL has called upon Peter Phelps to quit. Won’t be long before this hits QT with Labor asking Nairn/Howard to act. Should be interesting.
Tom
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22449636-29277,00.html
Mike how would most regular people even know about Gary Nairn’s staffer’s comments?
It doesn’t really make sense how it would have a major impact.
CTEP @ 394, a quote from the abc story…
“Col Kelly said today he was prepared to accept an apology from Dr Phelps after he was heckled at a community forum in Queanbeyan last week.
Dr Phelps compared Col Kelly’s service in Iraq to the Nazi guards at the Belsen concentration camp.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22449636-29277,00.html
Is it getting any coverage in the television news? That’s all the matters…
Print media is irrelevant.
The bush telegraph moves very quickly ;-). Word will get around. If the RSL is calling for this guy to quit, he is gone. Labor will jump on this and add their voice to the chorus. How many Lib voters do you suspect are either RSL member themselves or families of RSL members? Howard will not let this slide, it will cost him too many votes and those being votes he can’t afford to leak for any reason. No, I suspect Howard will have a chat with the member and that he will be directed to let Phelps go.
The petty stupid partisan abuse of Gary Nairn’s boy has been fantastic already, it has pushed the tax gaffe back into news bulletins and put it in a great perspective. The whole ‘there on his own’ line holds no credibility with anyone in or out of politics and the ‘nothing to do with me line of Gary Nairn’ is just funny.
The Government’s national security is in trouble because a add with the CoS scorning a soldier will be easy to use in an add. I can see an add with Peter and Mike talking softly and wisely to camera, and some more extreme and stupid govt claims in relation to Iraq being the counterpoint. Who do you trust with security…
#321
I believe we should have the same sort of hiring and firing laws as they have in America, employers be free to fire workers, with protections for firing in certain cases.
Print media is not irrelevant. Many people use that as their only form of news. My in-laws are both in their 60’s and for them, their news is picking up a daily copy of the local paper. They don’t watch TV news.