Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition

• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.

• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).

• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.

• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.

• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.

• Anyone speak Portuguese?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition”

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  1. The reason print media is irrelevant is because you have to actively seek out and read the story. In my opinion, the votes that decide elections are swingers who don’t actively seek out political content. This means if it’s not front page news it’s most likely going to be missed by the most important voters to sway.

  2. CTEP

    I’ve heard a fair bit on the radio and i’m reliably informed that it got substantial play on the tv news last night (although i didn’t see it myself…)

    Also, from my perspective, word seems to have got around town remarkably quickly.

  3. ” print media is irrelevant ”

    The Headlines which scream out at everyone walking past a Newsagency or shop or which can be seen on the front page of hundreds of papers carried by commuters, etc are necessarily irrelevant. Just because you don’t read a story doesn’t mean you don’t see the Headline.

  6. Thanks Yo ho ho. Word of mouth is extremely important, anything that becomes a talking point is damaging. (For instance Senator Heffernan’s ‘bucket of nappy’ comments)

    Also paul k I agree the front page headlines are relevant. I just think some people overestimate the impact that a lot of the print media has. Particularly online news.

  7. Just read Beazley’s farewell speech, is seems almost certain he will become some diplomat if Labor gets in.

    “To me this tour of duty is now almost done, time to hang up these boots.

    But I’m not yet ready to hand in my uniform. My passion to serve this nation burns stronger than before, whatever opportunities might arise.

    I love the country, believe in the country’s future.

    I look for new fields of endeavour and new battles to join in years to come.”

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22450693-29277,00.html

  8. Kim was a great politician. He will be missed by me at least.

    However I really hope the ALP puts a stop to political appointments to diplomatic positions. They won’t, but they should.

  9. Who Gives a rats #375

    I was probably not making much sense, it being late etc.

    Most contracts whether written or implied have certain obligations. For example, an employer must have OH&S, a retailer must have goods of merchantable quality etc.

    A contract is enetered into for the supply of material, labour or service
    -baked bean is a single item contract
    -plumber for the contracted work
    -cable TV 12 months

    In all these cases it is possible for the contract to be discontinued by either party at the end of the contract eg Woolworths does not guarantee to have baked beans next time I am there and I don’t guarantee to buy them when I am there.

    I can choose to change plumber, cable TV companies or any other aspect of how I spend my money without having to justify the decision in court.

    Unfair dismissal laws stand out as an exception.
    Whilst it is possble for an employee to terminate themselves for reasons of their choosing, the employer does not have that same option.

  10. # 389 Lord D Says:

    “The media tend to make a huge fuss over pollies’ gaffes, but I don’t think it has any real impact. I think being very negative about Rudd, who has a 65% approval rating,”

    Yes! I well remember going into a stereo shop in Cairns with the intention of spending rather a lot of money upgrading my system. I was asked about my existing equipment and I described what I intended replacing. The sales person, who, it turns out, was the proprietor rubbished my old equipment. Equipment that had served me well over more than a decade and equipment that I had decided to purchase after considerable thought and research.

    I took the sales person’s comments as a personal insult and never bought a red razoo from that store. Needless to say they went broke.

    Arguably, 65% of the population have chosen Rudd after due consideration and may well feel insulted by constantly being pestered by the coalition that they’ve made a rubbish choice.

    One thing seems very evident, the Libs are excruciatingly slow learners!

  11. Poor Diddums Brough cannot handle the Truth.

    [A COALITION frontbencher has dismissed as offensive “garbage” Labor’s accusation that a government dirt unit leaked private medical information about Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd.

    Mr Rudd yesterday confirmed he underwent an aortic valve transplant in his mid-30s following a childhood illness, but he denied he had any ongoing health problems or was unfit to lead the country.

    Labor today said it believed a government dirt unit leaked the information.

    Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough dismissed that accusation.

    “That is just garbage, and I find it offensive,” he said.

    “In fact, any time there is anything that happens, Mr Rudd and his team accuse the Government. (But) if anything… occurs in a state Labor government, a failing, `oh, you can’t have the blame game’.”

    Mr Brough said he believed Mr Rudd was fit, and no one in the Government would say otherwise.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22446212-5005361,00.html

  12. Tristan Jones #399

    So employers have an unfettered right while employees are simply “serfs” subject to whatever the boss does.

    It appears to me that the USA in this respect is a good example of what not to copy. Employees have rights and these rights should be protected. The days were the Boss was “Lord of the Manner” and treated employees like farm animals is far behind us.

    Economic systems should be there to support the individual not the other way around.

    BTW, even under the old “Unfair Dismissal Laws” employers could terminate an employee. Most of us have encountered this situation over the years so to suggest otherwise is misleading. All that is required is that the employers follow the law.

    I get the distinct feeling that those against “Unfair Dismissal Laws” miss the days when children were employed in the mines.

  13. # 401 Call the election please Says: September 20th, 2007 at 1:19 pm

    if it’s not front page news it’s most likely going to be missed by the most important voters to sway.

    Rupert Murdoch would love for you to believe this, but it’s not really the case. People vote a certain way because they want to be like their peers. If someone doesn’t have an interest in politics, or the specifics of what they stand for, they look at people they respect voting a certain way, and then vote the same way.

  14. The truth is everybody has different reasons for voting one way or another, and many of the reasons presented in this forum are valid. I remember a colleague of mine in the UK telling me that his Mum couldn’t possibly ever vote for Neil Kinnock because he wore such dreadful ties!

  16. Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough dismissed that accusation.

    “That is just garbage, and I find it offensive,” he said.

    “In fact, any time there is anything that happens, Mr Rudd and his team accuse the Government. (But) if anything… occurs in a state Labor government, a failing, `oh, you can’t have the blame game’.”

    Mr Brough said he believed Mr Rudd was fit, and no one in the Government would say otherwise.]

    Ya see… the thing is, Tony Abbott once ran an independent dirt unit, with a $100,000 slush fund, thats sole purpose was to dig up dirt on Pauline Hanson and rule here out for the election. Did a pretty good stitch-up too.

    So being insulted doesn’t really cut it these days, when this very government has actually been caught red-handed doing exactly this thing in the past, and lied about it then too.

  18. From Crikey’s Tips & Rumors. (sealed Section for members only)

    [Some federal employees received “caretaker government” emails on Wednesday 19 September. Keep your eyes peeled…

    I have been advised that the pro-AWA’s advertising campaign by the business community is tax deductable so if this is true it means the taxpayer is financing an even greater amount than has been disclosed publicly. These donations by the business community are hardly a legitimate business cost and therefore should not be a legitimate tax deduction.

    A fair number of struggling actors are examining their consciences after paying the rest of the year’s rent with a role in a WorkChoices ad. “Why should Liberal-voting actors get all the money?” seems to be the mantra. But is the federal government guilty of fudging the fine print so it looks like they’re genuine Aussie workers and employers speaking their minds, rather than paid actors?]

  19. John Withheld

    Regarding your reference to the “pork” being spent on the grandstand for Geelong Football Ground.

    This is a replay of what Howard did 3 years ago when he spent a heap on taxpayer’s money on “Panther Park” at Penrith. This is in the electorate of Macquarie which is held by one of his “favourites” M/s Kelley.

  23. Another Crikey item. (Sealed Section)

    [10. An election timing hint?
    Christian Kerr writes:
    You can read what you like into this email distributed to the NSW Liberal Party faithful yesterday:

    Federal Election 2007

    Campaign Preparation Training
    The Party Development Committee in conjunction with the NSW State Secretariat is conducting Campaign Training covering the following areas.

    Campaign Overview: How we are going to Win in 2007.
    Electioneer System / Booth Troops: Getting Every Vote in NSW
    Scrutineering: Counting Every Vote
    Volunteer Mobilisation & Management: Mobilising our Team
    Booth Dressing & Management: Winning on Election Day
    Media Engagement / Public Affairs: Getting our Message Out

    General Training will be provided on the following dates:

    Women’s Council Training
    12.15pm Wednesday 26 September 2007
    State Parliament House

    General Training – Non Key Seats
    7.00pm Monday 22 October 2007
    State Parliament House

    Specialised and tailored Campaign Training will be also delivered through a number of Federal Electorate Conferences (FECs) and Federal Campaign Teams over the next 4 weeks. Priority will be given to Key Seats across NSW.]

  27. [However, reading that thing from Kerr makes this unlikely.]

    Mind you as witnessed by involvement in the 2004 campaign for the ALP, Booth Volunteers for Pearce weren’t briefed/advised until well during the first 2 weeks of the campaign where we met the candidate and were given advice on booth etiquette etc.

  28. [Mind you as witnessed by involvement in the 2004 campaign for the ALP, Booth Volunteers for Pearce ]

    That should read MY involvement. Pity there is no facility to edit posts after they get posted.

  30. “Grumblebum Says:
    September 20th, 2007 at 1:45 pm

    Arguably, 65% of the population have chosen Rudd after due consideration and may well feel insulted by constantly being pestered by the coalition that they’ve made a rubbish choice.

    One thing seems very evident, the Libs are excruciatingly slow learners!”

    Just a measure of their desperation, Grumblebum. They figure they’ve got nothing to lose.

    You are right, Rudd is the brand new shiny family car, but not only are the Govt denigrating the choice, they are actively trying to sratch and dent it.

  31. A little birdy just told me the ALP National executive held a meeting this morning and resolved to reopen preselections for Cowper. They’re dumping lacklustre local candidate John Fitzroy, who was preselected when no one though Cowper was winnable.

    Apparently they’ve polled the seat in the last two weeks and yesterday elevated it to the target seats list.

    The National executive will endorse a new candidate on Monday. Today’s Coffs Harbour Advocate has a page 1 story reporting Paul Sekfy will be the new candidate.

    If the ALP now thinks they can win Cowper – 6.7% swing required – there must be a big swing on in NSW.

  32. Re Cowper.

    Hartsuyker just got to ask a dortothy dixer in QT, they must thinK he is marginal, only memebrs in “difficult” seats have been asking questions in the past two weeks.

  34. ifonly @ #409

    NP about last night. I know the feeling. I thought that I was the one with a brain refusing to work JJJ

    If my brain is working any better today I believe that your argument was summed up at the very end i.e.
    (“Unfair dismissal laws stand out as an exception.
    Whilst it is possible for an employee to terminate themselves for reasons of their choosing, the employer does not have that same option.”)

    However, I believe that this is incorrect.

    Under a normal contract (i.e. your supplier of bake beans” the supplier has to supply the goods for a certain period at a certain price. Usually these contracts set out how, when and under which circumstances that contract may be broken. Over and above the laws of contract there is common law that covers things that may not be expressed in the contract. Now if either party breaches the contract the solution may be found in either the contract itself or in common law.

    Usually what happens is that the contract states when the contract is satisfied (i.e. supply bake beans for 12 months)

    All the Unfair Dismissal laws do is bring employment “contracts” into the same sphere and sets out when and how and under what circumstances the contract my be voided.

    Usually when one is employed there is no time limit specified as to how long the “contract” will last. If it dies we are getting into a completely different area. With no time limit expressed in the contract this means that within the law either party can end the contract. Usually all the employee has to do is say “bye” and within the law the employer can do the same. However if the contract cays it will last for 12 months then it lasts for 12 months. If there is a dispute then the contract must be examined to find a solution.

    To me the Unfair Dismissal Laws look like t the dispute resolution clauses found in just about all contracts

    Now remember that I am not saying that the Unfair Dismissal laws work as well as the should but to repeat an example I wrote somewhere else concerning the laws against murder.

    (Because someone gets off, say, a ‘murder charge, for whatever reason, does not support the argument that murder laws should be repealed. What happens is that the laws are amended to remedy any deficiencies.)

    It is true that an employee has more scope in terminating their employment. However, remember that to limit this is pushing the bound towards slavery. However, there are still some requirements on an employee leaving a job i.e. so many weeks notice. However, we find that in most circumstances that once an employee decides to leave both parties wish to hurry this up rather than slow it down.

    To balance this I believe that employers get of very lightly in a number of areas. Firstly, in the area of industrial accidents and deaths. If we were “fair dinkum” we would have industrial manslaughter laws to cover these events. Also in the area of employee entitlements employers should have to put away actual cash (not provide a provision which is the current accounting standard) to cover such things when or if the business goes to the wall.

    Remember all that any law does is try and govern the relationship between us all so we know where we stand and have recourse when we are “harmed. It will never be perfect but without it we would have chaos.

  35. Re Cowper:

    [A row is brewing in ALP ranks over who will represent the party in the federal seat of Cowper on the New South Wales mid-North Coast.

    Labor’s state assistant general secretary, Luke Foley, says the party is reopening nominations for the seat and a new candidate should be announced in the next few days.

    Mr Foley says the party is stepping up the Cowper campaign because polling shows there is a mood for change in the region.

    “We are elevating our campaign and we are going to make it one of those seats around Australia that gets a great deal of assistance and support,” he said.

    “It’s now a potentially crucial seat at this election.”

    But John Fitzroy says he was elected unopposed and endorsed in June as the Labor candidate for Cowper.

    Mr Fitzroy is refusing to move aside.

    He says he was called to a meeting in Sydney a couple of days ago and asked to step aside, but at no time did he agree to the plan.

    He says any decision to terminate his candidacy is a matter for the national executive, which he understands will be meeting this afternoon as part of weekly discussions ahead of the election.

    “I’m personally confident that the national executive will continue to support my candidature,” he said.

    “I’m still here, prepared to do the job and I find it fairly disturbing in a sense that the ALP would want to change ships this late in the campaign.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2038620.htm?section=justin

  44. Finally, lets get on with the real campaign then. Still, Howard might just wait until Oct 14 to go to the GG to drag it out as long as he can and let the government advertising do his campaign for him.

  48. motion to suspend standing orders 9ie qt0

    costello went on a diatribe about Rudd

    Rudd moved an admenment, and gave back more than he got

    Julia seconds ammendment, now talking about the ‘gillard’ file

    government started it.

  49. the Gvt has well and trult shot themselves in the foot
    this QT should be mandatory listening for anyone with an interest in politics

    go julia you good thing!!!!

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