Galaxy: 56-44

The latest Galaxy poll, published in today’s News Limited tabloids, shows Labor’s lead easing imperceptibly to 56-44 from 57-43 last month. There has also been a one point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 46 per cent and the Coalition up to 40 per cent.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

548 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44”

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  1. 56 from Galaxy is an excellent result, bad for the Libs but not quite enough for the backbench potplants to rebel. Just what Labor wants. I will now proceed to sleep the sleep of the righteous.

  4. The PM should call the election.I don’t think waiting will do the Coalition any good.The Galaxy poll shows that more people prefer Rudd/Gillard over Howard /Costello.
    His spending on Government advertising is just a waste of taxpayers money and should be stopped now.How many polls will it take for him to see that nothing they have tried is working.?

  5. A good poll. High enough to give me peace (for now), not high enough to get complacent.
    He wont call the election till the footy seasons over. So many people to brainwash with their own money, lay the groundwork for the campaign proper. Still, I dont think anyones buying, and voters know he’s holding off more and more the longer he leaves it. If he leaves it till December/January he will be further punished for preventing the democratic process.

  6. Sondeo how can going to the polls 12 points behind be a good decision either…Howard has nothing to lose by waiting for Rudd to stumble…if he goes now he’ll lose if he goes later anything can happen…Sondeo considering each State Government has used the tactics of the Feds in throwing out old ads its hardly something to make a political point of the ALP does it as much as the Libs…

    General Wenck needs to keep the boys going because we’re going to need a better AC or s$%t will hit the fan!!!

  8. [He wont call the election till the footy seasons over. So many people to brainwash with their own money, lay the groundwork for the campaign proper. ]

    Ok, who wants to do a tally of the number of Govt Ads shown during the various Grand Final Telecasts ?

  13. Glen on your logic, General Waenk can never go to the polls.

    He has been trying this Ruddattack since last December and failed. Maybe he should try a different tactic and strategy.

    Costello Ruddattack last week also does not look so flash anymore!!! What a hero! What a star in his own lunchbox. Talks tough and acts little!!

    The MSM are all over the shop and hysterical. Thank god for the bloggers to keep perspective and sanity. Matt Price has gone to the dogs.

  14. Why doesnt labor stick to policy and give us a tax policy while they are at it…and not whine about the election…they’ll get their shot but they arent the Government the Libs are so Rudd’s going to have to take a chill pill.

    General Wenck muß kommen er muß, oder sonst werden wir gebumst, also ist das Bumsen verwurzelt ihm nicht, warum OH- lustig, warum nicht werden der Mittelangriff Rudd und seine schwache pathetische vordere Bank sein nicht angemessenes!

  15. the thing is, when the campaign proper starts, we are going to see the best labor campaign for decades. rudd can do it. and howard knows it. when rudd gets away from canberra he is just great.

    if howard can’t shake rudd’s tree soon – within the next 3 weeks, max – he is finished. and yet, every day that passes is also a free pass for rudd: another day to tell his story, another day for disaffection with howard to swell up.

    howard – is he a duck or is he a goose? either way, he’s s*****d

  16. Glen, Rudd didn’t have a good week as it was and yet little movement in the polls. That 46/47% is looking more and more like rock.

  17. No but Howard has a better chance of going later than now do you honestly think he’s stupid enough to go to the polls 12 point down it cant get much worse for him…in time the polls ‘could’ narrow…anything below 55-45 and he’ll be in the car but it doesnt look like happening just yet maybe another Rudd gaff without his PR crew to save his behind will do the trick.

    General Wenck kommt und außer uns und dann wird die ArbeitsPartei beendete… uns muß diese Wahl mehr gewinnen beendet, als Arbeit sie mindestens die Zustände haben, die wir nichts haben, es nicht angemessener Gottfluch es zur Hölle ist, die eine Last von Stier Butter und im gehend zu sein also pissed seiner ist, wenn wir verlieren!

  18. I suspect there’ll be no Labor tax policy till the election campaign. Which is probably another reason not to wait much longer, if you’re Howard.

  19. apart from impatience, the longer Howard waits the better for Labor.

    His add campaign is toxic for the coalition but they can’t seem to reconcile with this.

    Possum showed us that this has been the best tactic from campaigns past, but this year the more adds they run the better it is for Labor.

    Keep stalling Johnny and keep running those toxic adds with OUR money please.

    the wait is gonna be worth it.

  21. Labor will be stupid to give a tax policy. What was the Lib’s tax policy in 1996? Unless you can access the Treasury and Finance computer models providing a tax policy is pretty stupid. All tax policy on either side of politics should be decided at the May budget after revenue has been looked at.

  22. What is is with Glen and bad polls and your horrible german language. The general would be turning in his grave to defend the honour of his mother tongue.

    William, Glen is using the F word in german. In fairness to him, he is describing the state his party is in.

    And no Glen, the weak flanks and poll positions are all on General Waenk’s side and not on General Teflon.

  23. I don’t know if anyone noticed but the last 2 Galaxy polls indicate a possible small trend towards labor after June and July indicated a small trend to the Govt.

    Thus the result of APEC and Howard’s leadership problems last week. AND as I assert, Rudd’s performance in parliament on the last day was a good and deliberate tactic – to look strong and forceful, not just Mr Polite.

    The ship remains steady for another week or two.

  26. I think it has been established that people want to see Howard gorn. Rudd can make errors and they mean jack you know what because it is not Rudd they care about, it’s Howard.

  27. When speaking to the brother, I suggested that the not Melbourne Cup would be a factor.

    Conjectured that a one horse per race track around the country could replace the trad Cup. Fastest runner wins. We extemporised. Concluded that it should be a knock out thing, like the footy. Time starts now.

  28. glen, howard is snookered. if he waits, he allows rudd to continue to “put meat on the bones” of his policies and his persona. rudd is the front runner here, remember. he is the story.

    so, if all other things were the same, howard should go asap. but of course, he is reluctant to take the leap into the unknown. he must be torn in two: he can’t allow rudd more time, and yet he himself needs more time. it is delightful.

  30. Kina

    “Sounds like everyone just got their long awaited heroine fix.”

    You either meant an illicit drug, Kina, or your “Hero” Kevin! 😉

    In either case, I think we have all had our “fix”

    Guten Nicht !

  31. We’ll see if the press give Howard a fair go over his environment policy…it pains me to see that the Liberals gain nothing from pledging policies to health and education because the people consider them Labor strongholds just as im sure it pains you Labor supporters that nobody takes you seriously on defence or the economy…oh well…it almost feels like why bother but hey you gota do what you gota do.

    Pauline…it is a classic catch-22 either way is bad but one could pay off while one wont…to be fair Howard should have called a DD election the moment Rudd took over because he wouldnt have won despite the honeymoon and just as Gordon Brown is going to smash David Cameron if he calls an early election the Tories will be finished for another 10 years…still i can comfort myself that if we lose we wont be that far from regaining power after all Rudd can’t have to large a majority and it can’t be as large as that facing my fellow Tories in the UK who need 116 seats to beat Labor ‘shudders’…

  32. Glen, goodness me.

    I have mentioned elswhere that Labor would not release policies (this thinking includes tax) because basically the Coalition has no ideas and will simply attempt to copy or trump.

    Sorry to tell you, Labor is not so foolish. It is unlikely I am the first.

    In the interim, Mr Howard stalls the election announcement, has no clue, hopes to get some or at least one from Labor, cost us heaps of money and irritation.

  34. 56:44

    And from the Courier Mail article reporting it:

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22468466-952,00.html

    When asked to comment on the criticism that Mr Rudd is “superficial and lacking policy substance” half of those surveyed disagreed. One third of those who rejected the criticism were Coalition supporters.

    Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.

    Okay, I’m now calling it. Minimum 10 seat majority to Labor. Plus interesting movement in the senate.

    And watch for a major implosion on the Coalition side over next few days.

    The pressure on Howard to call the election is just about to go extreme. The longer he leaves it, the bigger the loss.

  36. [Breaking News.
    Liberals could lose Grey.]

    “There are fears Barry Wakelin’s formerly safe seat could fall in an unprecedented 15 to 20 per cent collapse in the Liberal vote

    It showed Mr Wakelin, could retain the seat but his replacement, Eyre Peninsula farmer Rowan Ramsey, was so unpopular he would be swept away.

    A source said Mr Wakelin had been asked not to deliver his valedictory speech last Thursday by the Prime Minister’s staff.

    As senior Liberals looked for a way forward, a special emergency meeting of the Liberal Party state executive was scheduled for last night at which Mr Ramsey was set to be disendorsed. That meeting was cancelled around midday after Mr Wakelin finally decided against another term. ”

    HOLY CRAP! 15 – 20%!

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22468496-5006301,00.html

  37. “On the other side, 49 per cent of those surveyed agreed with the criticism that Mr Howard was “out of touch and driven by self interest.”

    Only 49% have picked up on that?

  38. This union campaign is becoming tedious and boring.

    The union activism on Iraq and Hussein demonstrates how bankrupt their campaign on industrial relations is.

    A union future is the death of democratic rights, and compulsory unionism.

    By showing how weak the fundamentals of the union campaign are, we can finish off Rudd and Combet forever.

    Long live the freedoms of Australians, protected by Our Government, and long live John Howard.

  43. This is excelent. The average person just looks at the numbers, not the disection or even the range. it shows Howard continuing to loose ground. I knew we were going to win when my mother and brother-in-law said that they were going to vote Labor for the first time in their lives because of Howard’s policies. I’m predicting that the next poll will show the same stability for Labor and from here on in we will see a continued hardening of the Labor vote, rising as the day draws near. it might be the sleep deprevation speaking but I’ll go so far as to predict numbers of 60% to Labor after this one.

  46. Meanwhile, the WA Branch of the ABF want out of the ACTU.

    Olsen btw is well remembered here in WA during the last State Election for doing a deal to support the WA Libs.

    [THE Howard Government has received an extraordinary plea for help from a rebel union representing thousands of nurses, which claims Labor’s industrial relations policy is “more about boosting the centralised power of union officials”.

    The West Australian branch of the Australian Nursing Federation, which has refused to co-operate with the ACTU’s multi-million-dollar election campaign against the Coalition, wants the Government to pass special rules that would allow it to operate independently.

    The union’s WA secretary, Mark Olson, told The Australian that present workplace laws would allow the ACTU to centralise his union’s operations, with the result that it would be swallowed up by its bigger interstate counterparts.

    Mr Olson has asked Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey to introduce new regulations so his union can continue as an autonomous, federally registered organisation, free of the ACTU or other union interference.

    The West Australian union chief said he had refused to pay levies to the ACTU that would have been used for television advertisements against the Coalition under its Your Rights at Work campaign. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22469481-11949,00.html

  48. “…desperate moves suggest the Liberal Party’s own polling is as bad or worse than published polls meaning the Government faces a wipe-out in seats not even classified as marginal.”
    Brings a tear to the eye…

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