The latest Galaxy poll, published in today’s News Limited tabloids, shows Labor’s lead easing imperceptibly to 56-44 from 57-43 last month. There has also been a one point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 46 per cent and the Coalition up to 40 per cent.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
Ashley,
I dont’ think it was Glen.
The leak smear stuff is interesting, tells you a lot about the quality of journalism at some outlets but isn’t important surely.
Grey is interesting and important. The PM desperate enough to try and switch candidates on a weekend, there is no surprise he isn’t calling an election they aren’t organised enough to call an election.
Might they have they promised people they will sit again (and Costello’s gaffe stops being a gaffe and is deliberate misdirection, or lying as it used to be called) I wouldn’t want to miss my farewell speak to the House because the PM had knots in his knickers about losing a really safe seat….
Glen, still cleaning egg off your face? I honestly thought you were one of the smarter conservative commentators here!
A good day of headlines so far for Rudd: steady as she goes in the Galaxy Poll, Howard trying to persuade MPs not to retire, News Ltd names a Liberal as the source of the Rudd heart surgery rumours etc.
I’ll predict Howard calls the election sometime next week for November 24.
You know that the world is going all topsy-turvy when an article by Malcolm Farr almost reflects the real world.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22470644-5007146,00.html
He quotes from a reader some extensive averaging of Galaxy polls that is interesting.
Have the Liberals chosen candidates yet for Rankin and Banks?
Garry Morgan has written a nasty open letter to The Age re:
Jason Koutsoukis’s article in The Sunday Age “So, is the party over?”
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/press-releases/2007/683/
Of polls including Galaxy – I meant to say. Must have been too painful for Malcolm to send his readers Possums way.
Nafe,
I find it odd that the Libs go on about various labor members in their youth being radical lefties.
Lots of Libs were (and some still are) on the radical right (‘Uglies’)
either Right Wing Conservative or Libertarian.
University is the crucible of ideas were all sorts of ideologies and philosophies get, and should, get an airing.
Its part of life that uni students can tend to be more radical, then as they get older mellow out.
Its called being human.
OK, ok … this is unworthy. But, who is the gay lib wot visits bath houses. Just a weeny hint, perhaps? I do, of course, expect to be ignored.
The ABC’s economics correspondent was saying on The World Today that an interest hike before or in November is “still a possibility”.
Minchin is scuttering on about the efforts to persuade retiring members to recycles themselves. Not convincing at all.
#159:Derek Corbett
You may find an answer to your question here.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/
Derek………for christ sake stop pining.
On a few of the issues raised above:
– I don’t think Howard actually has/had a DD trigger. Hard to contrive one of them when you have control of the Senate. I think Howard caved to Barnaby on the couple of occasions when that was in issue, and legislation got passed. Even if he had one, he’d be nuts to use it.
– As a resident of Mitchell, I would prefer the useless but inoffensive Cadman to Alex Hawke. (Funnily enough, we get Ruddock’s electoral material. Never could work out why. Turns out Berowra is the other side of the street.)
– Howard is unlikely call the election with the numbers where they are. Howard will see that those keenest for the election to be called pronto are the ALP and ALP supporters. His own side is more, umm, ambivalent about calling it on asap. Howard will also know things can change (hard to see but it could happen), but the only real chance of a meaningful movement to the coalition is to maximise the time between now and the election.
– For similar reasons I tip a long formal campaign – I’m still thinking a 1 December election. Given Costello’s revelation in Parliament, Howard’ll probably call it around the weekend of 13/14 October.
– Even so, I think Howard and Costello will be better during the campaign than Keating was in 1996 at forcing the opposition to put significant policies on the table. Howard rope-a-doped Latham on the Tassie forests, and whilst Rudd is much more astute than Mark the Mauler, they’ll have their plans for Rudd. “He says he has a plan for the future of the economy, why can’t he tell us what it is?”…
– I don’t see seats like Grey falling to the ALP.
I don’t think even hints should be given out as to the identity of that Liberal Party minister. If someone really wants to know they ought to find out on their own.
Reread post #385 in the Morgan:56.5 – 43.5 thread
I imagine team Rudd may be seeing this as a unique opportunity. Given the rareness of the opportunity money might be flowing in to make it happen. A good strategy could strike deep into the heart of safe liberal seats and white-ant the foundations for many years to come, given that the rabid right would set about making the party even more irrelevant.
Well Glen, if your mate JWH had the slightest bit of honesty or ethics he would be calling for an investigation into the circumstances of a Liberal Party member illegally a)accessing and b)divulging somebody’s confidential medical data. He would be calling for the person to be charged by the relevant authorities, having the persons right to access this information cancelled, having them barred from practising medicine and having ejected from the Liberal Party. If he does not do these things, he is clearly condoning illegal activities and showing the country his own level of honesty and ethics.
Tell us all what YOU think he will do Glen?
[quote]142
Socrates Says:
September 24th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Glen 129
“Dario that is a rank and file member who is a health worker…you cant blame this on the Liberals we didnt tell him to leak it he did it himself…as if the Libs would spike their own story…that shmuck should have his membership torn up and booted out far as im concerned…â€
So Glen, since revealing priveleged private medical records is (to my knowledge) illegal under the Federal Privacy Act, and also a breach of the AMA’s code of ethics, I take it you would have no objection to this person beign investigated by the AFP and, if sufficient evidence emerged, charged?
[/quote]as well as looking for another job – disclosing patient records is a breach of terms and conditions of employment for most health care providers
[having them barred from practising medicine and having ejected from the Liberal Party.]
But then he would be expelled from the AMA! Which is a UNION!
😛
#145 Chris,
The problem with Green’s calculator is that it only allows for a swing of 10% 🙂
Don’t run away Glen… come on, what’s your answer?
Glen, if a union boss farts on a building site Rudd is supposed to kick him out of the party and drive a stake through his heart before burning his body and scattering the ashes.
“What’s good for the goose is good for the gander” Department:
If Lib party member is leaking private health information, they should at least be investigated by their own party, especially a party that is claiming – by dint of Rudd speaking for about two minutes (when you subtract 8 minutes worth of points of order by Tony Abbott from the alotted ten minutes) – that Labor was allegedly unable to prove there is any Lib dirt unit anywhere.
To be fair to Glen he has said that the person ought to be ejected from the party. Will that happen though? I’m willing to guess not and he may even be given a promotion within the party when the time’s right for taking the fall on this one.
Sondeo, wombat, julie
Thanks for that. I’ll stop pining now and raise my mind to higher levels.
Yes, come on Glen – what is your ethical position on a doctor leaking a patient’s medical details? Does it work for you?
Call the election, I’m after an answer to this exchange…
[Glen: Dario that is a rank and file member who is a health worker…you cant blame this on the Liberals]
Me: Why not Glen? The govt seems perfectly willing to blame the ALP for anything bad that is happening to do with the unions…]
He was a Qld Doctor, don’t worry Kevin Andrews will deport him.
HH, the last time I checked there were no Liberals in Rankin or Banks, as well as about 10 other seats. Labor has a candidate in every seat (except Cowper where they are now choosing a new one). There is still no Democrats Senate candidate in NSW.
Glen won’t answer that question because he it would mean admitting to hypocrisy. Deep down, Glen is probably embarrassed about the current state of the Liberal Party and the federal government (any rusted-on would be), but, like Tony Abbott, he would prefer to maintain his parallel universe of denial.
By the way, Rudd should pull Howard up on his lack of action towards the Liberal member who violated patient confidentiality to leak Rudd’s health records. This is an opportunity for Howard to show that he has at least some sense of right and wrong, and doesn’t just play politics 24/7.
Chris. Please change your name, as that was previously my name. I changed it because there was too many using a form of Chris.
Great to see the result, was expecting 54-46 or 55-45. Even more interesting was the Herald Sun’s take on it: at my local milkbar I noticed the banner “Howard Costello Team Flops” and front page headline: “Voters dump Libs’ team”
Whilst we all get annoyed with the Oz’s spin for the govt, this I think is actually unfair spin- the 2PP has improved 1 % for the govt.
Nexus have expanded their comments on the last poll.
Labor have now claimed 20% of previous Liberal voters and 26% of previous Green voters within Melbourne and Sydney, which together make up almost a third of Australia’s total population and are often indicative of coming trends.
http://www.nexusresearch.com.au/SeptVoting.html
Andrew, I think those headlines are referring to the Galaxy poll question that saw the respondents rank the Rudd/Gillard ‘team’ higher than the Howard/Costello ‘team’. A fair headline in that regard.
Yeah pretty unfair to dump on the Government’s only card left, if they can’t play the team card what hope have they got.
Nafe,
Socialist Forum was about socialism? I thought it was an organisation for holding members of the communist party as they waited to join the ALP. I went to the first meeting. Orchestrated is no the word.
Hard to know whats up with News Ltd. We have become so used to their promoting Howard and down selling Rudd that when they go into a day of normal reporting it feels like a favour. And it is not consistent across all their papers.
Maybe they want Costello to take over or have realised the last pseudo Lazarus come back hype didn’t work.
Frankly I would prefer no games and instead balanced reporting and opinion pieces.
That Nexus analysis is really good.
Isn’t there a bit of a sting in the tail of this Galaxy poll ????
The last question of the poll is on which leadership team is best equipped to lead Australia.
Rudd/Gillard lead 46 – 41 (which almost exactly matches the primary vote).
The undecided is at 13% which almost matches the primary for Greens/Others.
Now this would all make sense to me, EXCEPT that the 13% undecided is split 6-7 between LNP and ALP. It doesn’t link very well to the TPP figures
I’m not sure what to think of this, is this where the ALP vote is soft?
Would love to know if there is some trend figures on this question
I can imagine that if you are not a Labor voter then you might consider Howard/Costello the ‘better’ leadership team simply because of many years of encumbancy.
Liked Malcolm Farr’s response to a reader who claimed the electorate was only flirting with Labor.
“It might look like flirting to you, but to others it’s 10 months of tongue kissing”.
Yes, and especially moreso in that this very issue came up recently in another forum (AFL v. Channel 7). That one went all the way to the courts in Victoria to protect the right of confidentiality. Since when do the medical records of a politician have less of a right to confidentiality than a sports player? The buck stops at the top and Howard needs to set this one straight.
Scotty #108
“Males can’t do more than one thing at a time.”
But superbly …… : )
Did anyone else use the online poll on ‘The Australian’s’ website yesterday (Sunday 23/9)? It asked whether the election campaign would change your vote. I found it interesting that about 75% across the board said it was ‘highly unlikely’ that their vote would change. That indicates a lot of locked-in votes (for both sides) which means the polls are probably accurate in relation to voter intentions. That’s not good for Howard.
It’s a difficult call as to whether the ALP should use this material about a Liberal Party member releasing Rudd’s confidential medical records, as least at the moment. On the one hand, I can see that attacking the Government would:
1. Neutralise the attacks on the ALP re: the questionable behaviours of some union members.
2. Embarrass the Liberal Party generally.
On the other hand, I think Rudd got a lot of sympathy & the ALP some more support for having been on the receiving end of that kind of attack. Rudd is setting himself up with the electorate as “above” that kind of base politics, so he might not want to stoop that low.
He might be inclined to just accept the bounce they got from last week’s attack, and let this one ride and enjoy the show.
Mr Squiggle: Look at Possum Comitas’ blog to get an understanding of the so-called “soft” Labor vote.
Dave R I’m with you – Kevvie should leave it alone.
Ho hum you are obviously meeting different boys to me.
another minister in denial!
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,%2022468847-662,00.html
Once you start demanding action you make a rod for your back as Howard did with the Burke affair.
Cripsy et al: You’ll find this anecdote quoted by Richard Dawkins in “The God Delusion” on page 367, so yep, Wittengstein.
Also, in Nostradamus you’ll find that Howard’s end is foretold somewhere, along with Armageddon, but don’t quote me! (Irony alert!!)
PS Crispy, we are related by christian name, presumably.
Andrew @ 180
Those headlines are interesting and will probably mean more to voters than great slabs of type in the broadsheets. The Herald Sun (formerly the Sun News Pictorial) was once regarded as a fine example of a newspaper of record. It covered everything. That reputation has been tarnished over the past 15-20 years, but I like to think some of the old tradition remains. (By the way, when I was there Oakes was very tubby). I’d say the headlines and poster accurately reflect the finding of the poll.
The Age is a worry, though …
He did in fact publish a book proposing a heliocentric view of the universe a year before he died.