ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 1 of 17
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  3. 48% ALP primary after a week of wedging and sledging from our odious, fear-mongering little PM and his team of near-hysterical schoolboys.

    With 5 weeks to go – that gives Team Rodent about Buckley’s.

    I’ll sleep well on that.

  5. A C N has over estimated the Coalition vote by at least 2% at the last three elections whilst getting the labor vote spot on, so I make this 48-40 on Primaries – that was my very best Nostro impersonation

  6. Looking at the Primary list for the year I know which one I would consider more stable.

    You watch Howard go super hard on the negatives now. His bile will be spilling everywhere.

  8. CW@1
    after you
    The Ruddster has survived shock and awe campaign, minefields still ahead +grenades lobbed from all-sides.

    Is this ‘The Narrowing’ or dead rat bounce?

  11. Houston, we have Narrowing.

    OK, so they have their tax-cuts bounce. What are they going to do to (a) maintain it and (b) get the remaining 4% they need? Big tax cuts is one big-ticket policy conservatives always roll out when they’re behind. But what do they do next?

  12. Galaxy is the most accurate of the pollsters. Labor’s primary vote in the Nielsen is ridiculous.

    By the way, John Stirton is one of the most unpleasant-looking people I’ve ever seen.

  13. Well I finally get to see what Stirton was rabbiting on about to red kez. Basically more of the same. It was fun watching Lebovic running the line that only the last three polls mean anything while Stirton was saying if the first three weeks are bad the libs are stuffed. Time will tell

  14. Rudd will win next week. His tax cuts will deliver where the votes are (low and middle), cost less, and then paint the coaliton as inflationary drunken sailors.

    Few choice quotes from economists, make a credible case for ALP on management, then its on to the open slaughter of the befuddled coalition B-team on health education, climate, and nuclear.

    No problemo.

  15. The extra boost to the coalition’s primary vote is probably coming from previously undecided voters. A proportion of them will include people who are completely tuned out of politics, some of whom may not even know much about Rudd, but knowing that the election has been called and knowing that they have to vote for someone, they fall behind the person who they do know a little about, that is, Howard.

    Due to greater media coverage of politics during the campaign itself, some of these people may change their vote depending on whether they gain a greater sense of familiarity with the opposition leader.

    At any rate, the narrowing in the polls at this stage may be a blessing in disguise. It will fire up Howard even more. He will stick to his current strategy of fear-mongering and therefore give further credence to the suggestion that he has nothing to offer the country other than his attacks on Labor.

  16. It would appear that some Greens went to the LNP and some to the ALP. The 8% who are still swinging should thus split more favourably for the ALP or the Greens who pass their preferences on.

    At the present tim it seems more likely that the remaining swingers will split more towards the ALP which, puts us back to 55/45 temporarily.

    Given that people were not particularly swayed by the Tax Cuts Labor has a great opportunity to do something good with the $34 bn. $20 bn in tax cuts and $10 bn on hospitals, $4 bn on schools or whatever sounds much much better than and extra $5 a week for in tax cuts.

    Howard may have thus made a tactical blunder by shooting his money off too soon. He will now have to play the wedge, smear and negative as hard as possible – and of course much of the MSM is willing to help him. [those future advertising dollars]. I guess if Rudd said he wouldnt cut back on advertising revenue they would support him to the hilt.

  17. kina says:

    It would appear that some Greens went to the LNP and some to the ALP.

    wouldn’t it be more likely that some ALP went to Lib and some green went to ALP

  20. Nath – yes it could be. The only reason I don’t put it as the first option is the stability of the ALP primary all year. I am guessing there are some Libs with concsience, maybe worried about Climate Change etc going Green for the guilt.

    OK where are the analysts?

  23. This poll confirms my fears -the L-NP coalition is not only back in the game but it is within striking distance of retaining office by a comfortable, if not, increased majority. Although the swing back to the Liberals is only minor at this point, I expect it to become fully fledged in the coming weeks and expect the coalition to be in the lead by November 24.

    Rudd is running a weak and lackluster campaign and is not coming up with any initiatives, nor contributing any substance. Neither is the government but they have the advantage of incumbency and a supposedly proven economic record and unfortunately scare campaigns have worked too well in the past. I would have hoped we’d have moved past the “reds under the beds” style campaign that the Liberals are running against the unions but apparently not

    At this stage I think the government will lose 10 seats at most and perhaps even this is too much of an optimistic figure. I just really can’t see Rudd winning, as much as I’d like to envision it

  24. As predicted earlier today, we see the dead cat bounce that commonly occurs after any crash. This 2% change will evaporate next week to have 55/45 where it will finish.
    Rudd will win the debate, eat the worm and with the sensible tax policy win back those plebs who can be bought for $20 in 5 years. Talk about dumbing down the electorate. Yes there are 2-4% of that are as dumb as dogshit.
    The swing as we all know will not be uniform and deliver 20 seats to Labor. Howard will retain bennelong but lose it in the bi-election.

  28. But Kina. We have analysed and analysed.

    Pshephs. Humanists. Families. Individuals. Gays. Singles. Doubles. Married. Widowed. Pensioners. Carers. Wealthy. Opinion makers. Papers. Blogs.

    Now, Tony Delroy is being provocative about the polls. Inviting the listener to respond to the Coalition rushing in front!

  31. CW@28

    Read the article on my comment 25. not only will you laugh, AC has not lost sight of reality, which is most unusual for the MSM

  34. I think that Labor has played it fairly well so far. 34 billion in bribes from the Libs and they will be able to counter it from a fairly comfortable base of 53/54 tpp.

    If its generally agreed that Labor appear highly likely to pick up at least ten seats at this stage, then thats 34 billion available to win those and another six. I’d expect a major announcement by Rudd prior to the debate. If the polls are back at 55/56 by this time next week the wheels might fall off the Lib campaign. Early days but it is still ‘advantage Labor.’

  35. 35
    Ed the Pseph Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 1:25 am
    I think that Labor has played it fairly well so far. 34 billion in bribes from the Libs and they will be able to counter it from a fairly comfortable base of 53/54 tpp.
    ….

    I’m with you, Ed. Cool is the word. There is a lot of time left in this campaign and everyone will have their eyes on Rudd when he announces his tax policy. It had better be a good one!

    Howard is fighting, though. Gotta give him that!

  36. I agree – the ‘call the election’ realignment has occured and is why Howard tried so hard all year to bring them within striking distance.

    Now it is down to the campaign battles. Rudd needs to go with his positive look, sensible policy and hope the negative campaign doesn’t affect too many people this time. There are a few points still to be won if they do a very good campaign.

    The unkown factor is if the MSM will electioneer for the LNP. My baseball bat after the election might be for them.

  38. A soothing dose of nambutol for the comfort of this soul, a verse or two of “the sun in the meadow is summery warm…” and off to repose; for tomorrow is another day.

  39. ‘POLICY nudity is not a comfortable state for any politician.

    So imagine what it must be costing Kevin Rudd in sheer willpower to head out every day, tax-wise, with barely a stitch on.

    Day after day, he’s asked in a dozen different ways – politely, brusquely, by journalists, by talkback callers, by hecklers in the street – about his lack of a tax policy…………………….

    …………………Howard is kitted out like Marie Antoinette.

    His rich brocades are the talk of the financial district; the extravagant cut of his train and the height of his pompadour alone are enough to send the Reserve Bank governor to bed for a week with palpitations.

    And what does shivering Rudd have by way of a fig leaf?

    How he must yearn for Howard’s policy robes; to clothe his goose-pimpled form in a few spare folds of velvet, and snuffle about companionably in the reassuring costliness of it all.

    But today’s Herald/Nielsen poll tends to suggest he is right to hold out.

    As long as the 85 per cent of voters who say they’re unswayed by the PM’s tax cuts are telling the truth, it suggests Rudd has done himself no harm by going bare……………………………’

    You can read the rest of this expose by Annabelle Crabb
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/bannabel-crabbb/2007/10/18/1192300949768.html

  40. So annoying. I thought Tony Delroy was his own man. But.

    There he is, cheerleading, in my judgement, for the Coalition ‘winning back support’ according to the polls. Not that he quoted figures.

    I jumped on the phone with William’s figures in front of me, to quote same, was responded to, waited 30 minutes, didn’t get a look in.

    It was great to hear, while I wasted my time, the callers slating the Government for its failures in public policy, rejection of criticism of unions, the Government front bench one way experience etc.

  41. Rudd has done a very smart thing to hold off from rushing out a tax policy showing very cool and strategic nerve. The polls confirm that the tax had little effect – it is the same tactic Howard used in 1996.

    AND how valuable it is to him now! Rudd has $34 bn to play with and giving it all in tax cuts is obviously not what people want.

    Annabelle may mock him but he is dead right – Howard throwing money at the electorate was silly and unimaginative and may have added very little in the way of votes.

    Rudd has caused Howard to have policies where he had none before – and even caused him to accept Climate Change. It has been Howard running naked this past few years.

  42. Johne Howard kitted out like Marie-Antionette. Ah, the influence of Alexandre Downer… is John Howard a cross-dresser tragic? I am sitting here in south-west France and remembering what happened to the original Marie-Antoinette. Based on the ACN it still looks like the Australian electorate is ready to wheel out the guillotine.

  43. What strategic nerve?

    Kina wait for the Coalition’s health and housing affordability policies these will be big policies.

  44. Latest from bookies

    Labour wins Very good chance (under $1 difference in odds)

    Latrobe Deakin (5c), coorangimite, Mckewan, Mcmillan

    Eden monaro bennelong, wentworth, patterson, page, robertson
    dobell
    paramata
    lindsay

    blair, moreton Longman, Petrie, flynn, dickson, hinkler, leichardt
    herbert(evens)
    bowman
    bonner

    Kingston, Wakefiekd, Boothby, sturt
    Makin

    Solomon

    Hasluckn Kalgoorlie, Canning
    Stirling(evens)

    Bass, Bradden

    thats 16, 18 with the evens. It won’t change from here except if some of the very good chances convert.

    We are in! It reminded me of post mortams after exams were you count up all the definate rights and the ones your not sure about. We passed!!!

  45. Interesting two polls out this half of the week. To me, the narrowing has begun, which was always widely tipped. I would not be surprised to see a 52/48 (to Labor) very soon.

    (If you see a 50/50 its all over people. )

    Anyway, the Coalition is very much back in the race.

    Over to you ALP campaign headquarters!

  46. Don’t forget to tune into Sky News for those who have it, today at 4:15. They are having a debate between the candidates in North Sydney ;-). Will just *love* to see Bailey tear Hockey apart ;-).

  47. At least the rumour about Labor’s primary increasing in this poll was right. Don’t believe the 2PP too much. The electorate is very polarised, and it seems the damn Libs have won some soft voters.

  49. I can give you one piece of intelligence from Boothby …. the Advertiser’s whispering campaign against Nicole Cornes is starting to have an effect … people are starting to feel that she isn’t being given a fair go … I’ve noticed a definite softening of opinion in her favour now the campaign is under way.

  50. How do AC Nielsen distribute preferences? Do they ask respondents, or is it a formula based on previous election flows?

    Also, perhaps there should be a tipping competition regarding the number of polls released during the campaign … the majors once a week, with Morgan maybe twice and with the occasional Senate poll. Plus Advertiser, Westpolls, Mercury polls, marginal seat polls, and a special election eve poll from everyone …

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