ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 10 of 17
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  1. Adam Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 2:32 pm

    Ye of little faith – of course Rudd had a plan all along. Don’t underestimate the Ruddster. He’s a clever little pixie.

    Yeah, I didn’t buy the idea that Rudd hadn’t already got a tax plan ready. That suggestion was just ridiculous.

  2. OK, here the ALP tax news:

    $31b of cuts, same as government, except no cuts for those over 180k.

    Accusing govt of “me-tooing” on the ALPs 2005 proposals for low income rebate.

    Other $3b of saving goes to:

    – reduced elective surgery waitlists
    – education tax rebate for paretns with kids in school; up to $375 for Primary, and $750 for secondary. can claim it on home computer etc- links with broadband.

    In sum: modest , safe, neutralising package with a couple of sweeteners. Maybe some tinkering with LNPs rates (ALP says 15, 30, 40 , flat three levels only within 6 years). Not sure whether that is different or not, to be honest.

  3. Tis a good initiative. Howards went down quite well, perhaps Newspoll will show how effective Rudds has been in returning the waverers. Time will tell.

  5. The general vibe is Howard is coming back which will dominate the news tonight not Rudd’s immitation tax ‘policy’ that destroys the incentive to make money by taxing the well off and not giving them a tax cut or substantially reducing the tax rates…

    The punters already like Howard’s tax policy not a socialist mismash trying to act like a tax policy…you ought to be shaking in your boots Costello will rip this horse brained plan to shreds!

  6. Have been working on education tax refund for 4-5 months.

    Q:Are tax cuts inflationary?
    A: Since you’re investing in productive capacity – no. Plus there is a small saving overall against the Coalition plan (several hundred million dollars).

  7. Accusing govt of “me-tooing” on the ALPs 2005 proposals for low income rebate.

    This is what I think they should have done immediately after the government announced there tax cuts. I’m not sure why they didn’t make a bit more noise about it then.

  12. Watch as discussion of Rudd’s tax plan sinks to the bottom of the news feed faster than you can say “Masterclass”

  14. I sense the Labor strategy for this campaign might be “me better”… ie. wait until the Coalition put out a policy, then release a better one.

    This was always the danger for Howard in going first, and now he has copped it.

    Watch as both parties now play chicken to see who will release their other big policies first.

  15. Please tell me they will allow the education tax refund to help out all, including those going to private schools, ie to not do the Latham class-war politics?

  16. Rudd is worried about our children being left behind compared to other countries, specifically with respect to information technology education. Education tax refund can be used to equip children with computers and internet.

  18. Great stuff – now all the punters need to ask themselves is – “which is more important; your kids’ future or a few more bucks in your pocket?”

  21. Labor’s ‘policy’ is not better than ours we can afford tax cuts and a tax policy without lumping health and education in with it…ill bet you the Coalition has separate policies on education and health that we have not needed to put together to reduce their effectiveness if anything this is a hodgepodge policy from Labor that will be as confusing as buggery to the punters…

  22. Sorry to harp on this, but i’d genuinely like to hear the criticisms (LTEP and ESJ i’m looking in your direction).

    So far i’ve got

    1. Me-too with paint (ESJ i’m going to need more than that).
    2. Reducing incentive to earn more (Glen, i’ve often heard this from your side of politics, but i’ve never seen any convincing arguments based in reality (as opposed to the theoretical).
    3. It won’t be newsworthy….

    Anyone got anything on the actual policy?

  25. LTEP

    I’ll dominate the new tonight (greg howard ‘comeback’ will barely get a guernsey), it’ll be all over the newpapers tommorrow and sunday – when most people read them, and Rudd will give it a good tweak on sunday night.

    I suspect there’s some wild scenes at the moment in the smirks office as he runs around like a maniac with a sledgehammer in one hand scalpel in the other………Its all good

  26. All the criticism here at work is “he should have spent more on health” type statements.

    Oh – and one “But my kids just finisihed!!!”

  27. 453 ESJ
    Ed – if you’re so disappointed about it – why not get involved..ha!
    Seriously though – what’s your critique in relation to the history of the party?

  29. LTEP stop being such a bloody pessimist. You’re really p*ssing me off, much more then Edward and Glen who are open about their prejudices. If you’re really a Labor supporter let’s have a bit of team spirit, pal.

  30. I’m not criticising it. I’m just saying don’t expect the media to give fair coverage over this election. It’ll get basically no coverage, other than a very brief mention on page 12 of a paper and a “Mr Rudd today announced his tax policy, 3 billion less than the Coalition’s” on the news.

  31. Sigh. Don’t you Lefties realise that this is exactly what the Coalition wanted Labor to do? Krudd’s original plan was to release this policy much later in the campaign but the Government’s surprise announcement forced him to put it out now, giving the PM and co. plenty of time to pick it apart.

    Besides, Labor will NEVER be able to compete with the Coalition in the area of tax, no matter what the composition of their policy. The simple reason is that their image as poor economic managers means that people will be forever suspicious of their capacity to actually deliver. Remember the L-A-W tax cuts?

    Yes, this will get some early headlines but the underlying vibe of the campain is of the PM neatly playing with Krudd’s mind.

  33. SJP ( at 251) on behalf of the YR@Work Team makes the ACTU’s criticism of Hockey look like being ‘flogged with a warm lettuce’, as Keating would say. I think Ashley (at 253) has hit on the problem in part, that the ACTU and/or Labor haven’t immediately hit back with an Anti-Work Choices ad like “Protected by Law – no you weren’t – penalty rates, Gone! Overtime – Gone! etc, etc.”. What are these kiddies doing?

    I don’t think Kevvie should have given Howard et.al. look at his Tax Policy till Sunday arvo, not this afternoon, if that’s what he’s done – about an hour before the debate would have been just right, to see if he could trap the Rodent on its detail or divert the Right Honourable Rodent from his own narrative. Now the Lib staffers have two full days to tear the Tax Policy apart before the Debate! And this follows Kevvie’s statement that he would ‘go away and study’ the Libs Tax policy!!!! Don’t ‘study it’ Kevvie, kick it to death! No more Your Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, or it will kill us with the rednecks in marginals. How about attacking it Kevvie, especially if you intended to announce Labor’s Tax policy today!!
    What do you think the redneck ‘Howard battlers’ are going to think of you Kevvie? No ‘ticker’ or worse – to do with lack of genitals.
    And I’m a party member – maybe I should resign before I am expelled – what’s that called, doing a Mighell?

    Whose responsible for this genius call? Did they blink? Hope it’s not another Anzac Day Massacre! If it’s Kevvie himself, then he’s hit the wall. If not, he’s seriously burdened by incompetent minders.
    If The Campaign Team “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” they’ll never live it down, but their failure will probably not see them sacked, unlike plenty of other ALP supporters, as this gang of drunken sailors called a Government rips up the last of what remains of any ‘rights at work’, if re-elected. I’ll certainly know who to blame for the fiasco if Labor is beaten and so will many other ALP members.

  36. Glen (470)

    Bit confusing to the masses I agree, but the ‘little policies’ for health and education announced today will fit neatly into the health and education policy packages yet to be announced by Rudd.

    He’s not stupid – he’s just leaving some ground for the Rodent to ask “is that the best you can do – here’s our package” only to see it trumped, again, by Rudd with further, more detailed policies.

    This announcement gives most what they want, including the rich with the top rate coming down, and will be much better for the middle income earners (where the burden of tax appears to lie).

    hope they’ve got the costs right!

  37. And if you think the Government’s biggest shot was the tax policy, well, it was just the beginning. Health and education will actually get separate announcements, and not jumbled together in some panicky hodgepodge dictated by a need to say SOMETHING during the upcoming debate.

  41. Mate, I suspect the ALP plans ot spend more tha $400m on health this election. Just a hunch…..

    The ALP will have separate announcements on those too!! – But they’re just emphasising that they see the point of taxation is to provide funds for health and education.

  42. not jumbled together in some panicky hodgepodge dictated by a need to say SOMETHING during the upcoming debate.

    Wasn’t that the point of the Coalition releasing the tax cuts so early?

    I find this package a bit uninspiring, but it’s a solid safe one that will appeal to voters.

  44. Take the rose coloured glasses off Steven. Howard has been comprehensively outmaneuvered. Of course Labor has more health and education as well, but because Howard blinked, they have been able to give almost everyone the same cuts (and can’t be attacked on numbers there) while shifting the emphasis to health and education.

  46. Darn, “What do the mothers on this site think of Rudd’s educational tax incentives?”

    As a mother of a daughter in Year 4, I’m deeply impressed! It won’t affect me personally, because our income puts us well out of the range, but I know just how vital it is for kids to be online, and just how bloody expensive education is these days–even in public schools.

    It’s a winner.

  48. Just to let everyone know… people in my workplace are all talking about Labor’s tax plan to do with the 3 rates. They seem excited?

  49. But seriously – what the coalition going to be able to say, other than “me too”, or “what about the rich”.

    Otherwise its effectively costed by treasury, last Monday.

    Punters will like the annual computer/ education rebate.

    On other matters – I agree with those above who’ve said the ACTU should be ripping Dorkchoices a fresh one live to air nightly. Let get back on message, folks!

  50. re Stephen’s picking it apart.

    do we all remember cozzies pathetic attempt of doing this last election when he was given a lesson on budgetary costing on national radio.

    He said he put his reputation on the lone and Treasury said there were larger savings not less!!

    This mob are too good without treasury to help them

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