ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 12 of 17
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  1. Yes 540- its fantastic. Now thats out of the way Team Rodent can spend the next 5 weeks telling us about their real strengths in Health, Education, Housing, Industrial Relations, and umm oh yes the Water and Environment. Very cunning.

  2. The question is why is Labor’s education rebate not available to all parents…because Labor will no doubt have quarantined this cash for children going to public schools so those going to private schools will miss out!

    Labor could well be going down the road of envy and class once again!

  6. 547 Gecko

    I thought I had that covered in my “My mum declares Eden-monaro for Rudd’ post earlier.

    Maybe something on water might be good too, but the best thing – taking it off unproductive farmers – just gives too much ammo for the rodent. Better to do that when in Government.

  7. Re Will @ 465,

    “Will Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
    Please tell me they will allow the education tax refund to help out all, including those going to private schools, ie to not do the Latham class-war politics?”

    It is tied to those families who receive FTB A benefits. Matters not where your child goes to school, it is contingent upon the household income. The richer familes don’t get FTB benefits anyways.

  9. Sean 555

    I am not talking about the merits of income and wealth. Its simply how those people see it. Unfortunately Labor is so connected to a world of unions/party staffers/public servants it just doesnt understand anything different at all.

    You would have thought KR with his own Evita in the household would have.

  10. The average wage is $49k. You know how averages work ESJ, you add up all the little numbers and divide by the total. $180k is more than x3 this and you think a lot of votes are here. In a pink fit these people will never convert.

    As i have said before, the only people that vote conservative are the selfish and uneducated. Hopefully with this tax package many more uneducated plebs will be converted.
    The selfish are lost souls

  12. Thanks for voting, here are the results so far:

    Does Rudd’s tax plan make you more likely to vote Labor?

    50% (476 votes)
    No 49% (460 votes)
    Total votes Total of 936 votes

    Woo hoo 🙂

  14. Confusion here…

    The ABC quotes Rudd promising a
    “50 per cent refund up to $750 worth of outlay.”
    “The second part of it deals with secondary school, where the same parents would be eligible for up to $1,500.”

    The GG writes of Rudd promising:
    a 50 per cent refund for every year up to $750 of education expenses for each children (sic) attending primary school.

    Labor also would provide a 50 per cent refund every year for up to $1500 of education expenses for each child attending secondary school.

    OK, does that mean a maximum payment for Primary school kids of $750, or $375?

    Otherwise, the policy is a triumph. Matches taxcuts for everyone under 150k and feeds the difference into the ALP’s major theme of Education Revolution. Neat work.

  15. ESJ If you don’t declare a proportion of your income, I don’t see how you can pay tax on it, thus tax cuts would be of no interest to that group anyway presumably !

  16. Too many labor staffers have that poll on track to look good for Rudd!

    I hope Julie Bishop gets stuck into Rudd for his education incentives if they are as appears to be just for public school students and not for private school students after all many parents who send their kids to private schools arent millionaires!

  17. You guys just dont get it.

    That tax package will just go over as same old Labor. I am starting to think Labor is going to blow this election … again.

  19. Steven Kaye @481 – Labor can call on Howard’s ‘fistful of (non) dollars ‘from his Fraser years as a counter to Keating’s LAW cuts (which at least were converted to superannuation contributions). Tories need to remember, Howard has as much baggage as anybody.

  22. And this is for ANY education….

    I haven’t seent the exact detail, but you could probably use it buy school books if you wanted to.

    No Class warfare, just the eminently reasonable suggestion that social policy is geared to helping the less well off.

  23. ESJ: “I am not talking about the merits of income and wealth. Its simply how those people see it.”

    Yeah, what I’m saying is how they see it is irrelevant. Despite what little johnnies been whispering in your ear (ie poor overtaxed rich people) those on 180 grand and over are not ‘middle class’

  25. I just realised the people in QLD will miss out more on the educational rebate, because primary school goes to grade 7 there not grade 6. I wonder if Bligh will announce the move to making grade 7 a part of secondary education.

  26. Dear oh dear… On the Herald Sun, this is being spun as a “Robin Hood” plan which “Taxes the Rich more”. The commentariat are at their dirtiest again.

  28. People prefer to see the money in their own hands .. I think they dont like having it doled out to the “deserving” as identified by Swannie or Medicare Gold.

    You really dont understand anybody outside of that magic Labcest circle.

    The figures dont really matter it is the philosophy or state of mind it betrays. I see the polls heading to 52/53-47/48 in the next week. Cant the ALP call in someone with brains like Richo to save its campaign?

  31. The Family Tax Benfit Part A cuts out for one child at $97,845 family income. With 3 Kids it cuts out at $155,308.

    The Coalition cannot attck it. 😉

  32. Glen – 552

    It’s a mistake to assume that only the well-off send their kids to private schools. My wife and I receive FTB A, but we choose to go without some luxuries so we can send our 2 kids to private school. We know others who are in the same boat as us. Believe me, this announcement well play out well in this marginal electorate.

  33. Labor’s tax policy is considered, consistent, and safe. It won’t cost them any votes, and might pick up a few.

    The only group who get nothing from this policy are the Coalition.

  34. How touchingly naive you are Martin B. 3% of households in Australia have a DECLARED income of this level.

    Actually Ed, the ABS do not use ATO data for their research. But even though you haven’t given any reason for it, you could double this number if you like and the swinging voters in this demographic are still not going to be significant for the election.

    Whether people on substantially lower incomes form opinions based on the treatment of this demographic is a more interesting question. But your statement above is nonsense, unsupported by any evidence, and unsupportable.

  35. [I just realised the people in QLD will miss out more on the educational rebate, because primary school goes to grade 7 there not grade 6. I wonder if Bligh will announce the move to making grade 7 a part of secondary education.]

    WA and I think SA & the NT are the same ie K-7 for Primary School. I’m assuming the policy will cover for that point of difference.

  36. #567
    Edward StJohn Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 3:34 pm

    You guys just dont get it.

    That tax package will just go over as same old Labor. I am starting to think Labor is going to blow this election … again.

    And your not biased at all are you ESJ ?

  38. God… such fury from the lib supporters over one little policy. If it’s such a dud sit back and enjoy the show.

  39. “Just Me Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
    Labor’s tax policy is considered, consistent, and safe. ”

    You bet it is. Nothing visionary about this lot.

  40. Sinic, but no one thinks that they are rich, and everybody loves Robin Hood.

    Except for that US Senator in the 50s (from Nebraska maybe?) who wanted him out of high school books because of communist overtones.

  41. Because even parents who are well off spend thousands in school fees that other parents dont have to pay…this is typical socialist crap from Labor and they’ll be torn to pieces because of this class warfare policy!

  48. Well the idiots posting at news.com.au have completely misunderstood the policy. “I don’t have kids, so I won’t get tax cuts.” Lol

  49. The market consensus forecasts have just come out for CPI – 0.8

    I think 0.8 would be enough to make the RBA seriously considered raising rates.

  50. We can always tell when Labor has taken a trick because the Liberal orifices here get so shrill and hectoring. Edward exhbit A, Steven K exhibit B, Glen exhibit C (although he’s such a ninny he doesn’t really count). An excellent day’s work by the Ruddster, both in substance and presentation. This should reassure the nervous nellies like LTEP that it’s all going according to plan.

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