ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 13 of 17
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  1. For those Tories that are saying we shouldn’t be using the tax system for funding education, then I have news for you. The one, and only, Jeff Kennett is saying tax money is better spend on… wait for it… ‘education and health’. LOL! It’s funny how past Liberal leaders find a change of heart in retirement.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2063917.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

    I wonder if the Young Libs will say Kennett should go join the Greens

  2. Will @ 553,

    “Will Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
    BTW, News Ltd is running an online poll about if you will vote for the ALP now after their tax cuts. http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5007133-5031332,00.html”

    COOL ….. :):):):):) ….. .this site is NOT cookie hooked up so you can vote more than once 😉 … I keep hitting back and forward buttons on the webpages so I can reload it 😉 … I have already voted 6 times 😉 ….

  3. Glen, I imagine you cream yourself watching your hero Captain Smirky in action.
    Young Liberals obviously have nothing better to do than troll on boards like this today: did the Exclusive Brethren give you all the day off?

  4. Rates Analyst @ 572:

    “And this is for ANY education….

    I haven’t seent the exact detail, but you could probably use it buy school books if you wanted to.

    No Class warfare, just the eminently reasonable suggestion that social policy is geared to helping the less well off.”

    Yep. P&C fees, school excursions, sports, textbooks, pencils, pens, calculators, sports, uniforms, shoes, school bags…. At my daughter’s public primary school, we even have to supply a box of tissues and a ream of paper at the beginning of the year, for the class’ use.

    If you add up the year’s expenses, it’s really a lot. And we’re middle class (real middle class, not ESJ’s fantasy version). It doesn’t take much imagination to recognise just how valuable this will be for thousands of less well-off families.

  5. Bobby Horry… don’t bother reading news.com.au comments. They’re just filled with party hacks pretending to be ordinary people.

  6. Glen, there is no hint of ‘class warfare’ about this. It’s about income levels. READ Rudd’s statement. Then read it again, however many times it takes to understand it. Then go pop a temazepam and lie down again.

  7. If the Labor party was serious about wealth redistribution it would introduce a negative income tax not create a bureaucracy to administer a puny tax rebate.

  8. ESJ @ 548 – “How touchingly naive you are Martin B. 3% of households in Australia have a DECLARED income of this level.”

    LMFAO! That’s the best yet!

    So, under the ESJ fairness test: these “180K middle-class aspirationals” don’t declare the full amount they have earned (basically, tax avoidance), but they should have a right to claim a rebate under Rudd’s plan for what they *should* have declared.

    That’s a bit rich (pun intended).

    Someone’s rattled…….

  9. Glen @ 591 “Because even parents who are well off spend thousands in school fees that other parents dont have to pay…this is typical socialist crap from Labor and they’ll be torn to pieces because of this class warfare policy!”

    What, those would be the private schools that we taxpayers subsidise?

    Aw, diddums.

  10. Adam,

    Must agree. The shrillness of the exaggerations reminds me of that great Mock Band The HeeBeeGeeBees. Their hit song being “Meaningless Words in Very High Voices”.

  11. What’s this ……………….party hacks pretending to be ordinary people? Heaven forbid.

    No, that just doesnt sound right.

  12. This is off-the-cuff shrillness too. Just wait til they all get their faxes from Liberal Party HQ, complete with ‘talking points’.

    $10 to the first Young Lib to casually drop mention of an increase of the GST, or Julia Gillards dark socialist past into casual conversation!

  13. Just received talking points from the Senator

    + Suggest Labor will increase the GST

    + Mention Julia Gillard as having a dark socialist past

  14. If you all thought the Unions were so great how about them putting in the HSC a question asking students to detail the negative impact of workchoices as an essay question for the English Exam…this is typical Union left wing rubbish its crazy that school kids have to put up with getting brain washed by left wing teachers and unions at school they dont deserve this and Labor ought to be ashamed!

  15. 589
    Edward StJohn Says:
    “Just Me Says:
    Labor’s tax policy is considered, consistent, and safe. ”
    You bet it is. Nothing visionary about this lot.

    Doesn’t have to be. Rudd only has to not scare the punters. And he has achieved that, with room to spare.

  16. stop press please,
    somebody are lost out in Rudd’s tax policy …

    I’m sure the Exclusive Brethrens are not at all happy with Rudd’s tax concession on computers / laptops. Their children don’t use computers. They are not benefit from this spending / funding 🙂

  17. God, a labor tax policy announcement really gets the tories gibbering doesnt it. Some of the guff posted here is really hilarious. Hopefully costello’s retort will be as amusing.

  18. ESJ

    On a political level I am happy that Rudd has reaffirmed his competitiveness. It is a sad however that our national needs require bolstering in so many sections… Pensioners are really struggling with the rise in the cost of food. Our hospitals and schools etc. are wanting… Indigenous mortally our great shame.
    I for one would prefer that confidence in the Australian voter allowed confidence in genuine expansive policy that would unite us for the common good. Imagine the return of free University or free dental care… or perhaps a simpler taxation system that was the envy of the OECD or to become the most advanced country in the world with base-load re-usable energy. So many things to do and achieve.
    Regrettably policy is driven today by reactionary fear, innuendo and strategies and is more about tenure of power than good. (State and Fed)… exacerbated by enclaves in a narrow press.
    One day this might change. But little by little we progress. Rudd’s tax policy is not earth shattering but the pendulum has moved the right way. IMO.

  19. Adam @ 600 I love it “ninny”. Dr.Smith from lost in space.

    Danger danger danger Will Robinson (glen ESJ,and SK)

    Hey Glen I went to a private school (1/2 scholarship too) and have 2 daughters who will go private. I’m not rich and I welcome this package.

    My daddy (insert southern US accent) is rich over 10mill assets and hates howard with a passion. You see we Greeks hold being the forfathers of democracy hold it more sacred than anything.

    Oh and game over by the way!!!!

    Nay nay nay

  20. Glen, please try to get your facts right. “If you all thought the Unions were so great how about them putting in the HSC a question asking students to detail the negative impact of workchoices as an essay question for the English Exam…”

    It was not asking them to “detail the negative impact”. The question was neutral, and asked about “the impact of government legislation on employees”.

    If, as those such as you claim, the legislation is good for employees, then any student answering in those terms and substantiating their answer would have done well. Surely, that would be a doddle, right, thanks to John Howard the Workers’ Friend?

    And it wasn’t an English exam. It was Industrial Technology.

    I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming these were honest mistakes on your part, and not an attempt to mislead….

  21. The Senator is rewarding us all with a night off from blogging duty. He is very happy with the first week and especially today’s tax package announcement.

  22. LTEP, I think Glen at 619 wins the 10$ – didn’t get the subjects you nominated but clearly got the fax – turns education back to a “values” issue & manages to drag unions into tax & education.

  23. Howard Hater anytime anybody is critical of Rudd or Labor you tell them they arent a reasonable conservative but whenever have i said u werent a reasonable socialist if you disagreed with Howard or a Liberal policy that is a weak argument to attack someone with and shows how low you are prepared to sink to engage in a debate…i am allowed to have great fears that this is a return of class warfare from Labor and if it is which from first glance it appears to be then it is a disgrace in my opinion!

  24. Julie Says:

    http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5007133-5031332,00.html

    COOL ….. :):):):):) ….. .this site is NOT cookie hooked up so you can vote more than once 😉 … I keep hitting back and forward buttons on the webpages so I can reload it 😉 … I have already voted 6 times 😉 ….

    # 604 Just Me Says:

    Do it.

    Hehe. Well, I got it up from 51% to 55% before I got bored. It’s fallen back a bit to 54%. I’ve got a quick way of doing it, but I really should try and write a script so I can bang it up to 90% in 20 minutes. Then they would really have a story to write about!

  25. Besides on Friday nights all young Libs go out and become beastly drunk and do disgusting adolescent stuff like throw up in Daddy’s Maserati or push the butler into the pool, as everyone knows.

  26. Lomandra (526)

    Very nicely put.

    We don’t hear the word “greed” much any more. The conservatives naturally prefer to prattle on about “the politics of envy”.

  27. You can bet that Costello isn’t going to say “I need to go away and study it before I comment on it”. Rudd should have made some comment on Costello’s plan immediately after it was launched.

  28. Rudd and company might be getting out a line of “Friend of the Worm” tshirts 😉 ….. (I am on the Kevin07 automatic email list) AND if you watch on channel 9 on Sunday nights debate, you WILL get the worm there 🙂 …..

    “So make a note: this Sunday, you’ll have the opportunity to watch Kevin Rudd and Mr Howard’s live debate inside the Great Hall at Parliament House. Tune in from 7:30 pm on the ABC, Channel 9 or SkyNews. If Mr Howard has his way, it may be the only debate the Australian people get to watch, so don’t miss it.

    Finally this week, our campaign to keep the worm alive and kicking during the leaders’ debates has struck a chord.

    On yesterday’s blog Paul wrote:

    OK, I’ve got my Kevin 07 t-shirt, but would happily get the credit card out again if you could produce a Friend of the Worm shirt or sticker. What about it?

    Paul, we’re not making any promises, but we’ll see what we can do.

    In the meantime, we’re pleased that Channel 9 has now decided to allow their own ‘unauthorised’ worm to be heard – with a room full of 90 undecided voters ready to watch the debate and record their reactions from inside the studio.

    It’s a nice win for democracy – and only fitting for this most important of elections. Mr Howard might not like it, but he’ll have to face the views of the community on Sunday.

    We look forward to reporting back.

    -The KEVIN07 Team

  29. Well, there are far worse things he could be called than Robin Rudd. It’s far better than “me too”, which the media has been reciting like a parrot lately.

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