ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 14 of 17
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  1. 636
    ruawake Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
    Costello News Conference soon.

    Better bloody not interrupt the debate on Sky News between Hockey and Bailey >;-(

  2. ESJ, GLEN, I used to waste my time reading your posts because then I could understand what half the others here were talking about when they were putting you in your (cold, dark, damp) places. No longer. Damn Voltaire. I will be skipping any posts that are headed by your names, or mention your names in them. You have nothing genuine to contribute to this site.

  4. In fairness to Ed, Glen et al:

    There were a fair few posts going around on MOnday & Tuesday slagging the libs policy in a mirror-image way.

    What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

    Not saying anyone’s a goose mind.

  5. Amazing! Glen has been ranting for a while now and still no sign of the ‘hubris’ word. Maybe the Libs aren’t paying commissions and bonuses on it’s usage anymore.

  7. Costello’s reply sound pathetic so far. I don’t think he’s got anything worthwhile to say.

    He’s just moving on to attack the unions again.

  14. Costello: “Labor’s tax cuts are not deliverable”

    Hard to argue I would have thought given that they are less than the Coalition….

    Aaaahhh the wonders of the right of response.

  19. It was clever politically to match the Coalition’s tax cuts in the lower brackets, and erase those in the top bracket. That way they can’t possibly credibly argue that they can’t be funded.

    The only thing Costello has got left to attack is the 3 tier system proposed for the future, and as I said earlier I’m sure he’ll go to town on that. It’s all he’s got.

  20. Lets hope he can explain it better than he explained how Labor will make you pay $3000 more for your house a year.

    Given he’s had months to study that report and half an hour to study Labor’s tax plan… why should we believe what he has to say?

  22. 666 (loving that number):

    a proper sauce, I suppose.

    Costello’s response sounding dire so far.

    Just hoping no costing dramas down the track.

    Memo to KR: Don’t f*** it up!!!

  23. I don’t think Costello can attack the plan, because it’s HIS plan.

    Should provide good comedy on tonights news though

  24. this policy must have been released to coincide with the polls on the weekend.

    Hmmm..Newspaper headline on Monday anyone

  25. Costello: “Labor’s tax policy is 91.5% the same as the Coalition’s”

    I don’t even know how you begin to quantify that….

  27. Rudd’s stuffed – smirk says Rudd can’t go it alone without Howard & Costello (metoooooo) being there to copy and in the same breath says the unions will be directing all of Rudd’s agenda – hahahahahahah

  28. ESJ and the poor richest 2% of the population worrying about not getting a tax cut on their undeclared income – truly the funniest thing I’ve read since Douglas Adams died.

    Really though Rudd will need to sell it well. Not because there’s anything wrong with the policy, just that there are a LOT of dumb people out there (the quote about some buffoon thinking because they don’t have kids they don’t get a tax cut), and because many of the stupidest people work as journalists (Robin Hood Rudd crap).

    Some nice simple tables to show the weekly savings would be the place to start. The poor old folks on more than $180k missing out on a tax cut lie needs to be countered straight away with the fact that they obviously get the largest tax cut because the whole of the their first $180k is taxed at a lower rate whereas the rest of us poor saps in the bottom 98% only get reductions on the piddly 50k we average. They’d show we get the same amount voting for Howard or Rudd until we hit that magic 180K, but with Rudd if we have school aged kids we then get a rebate on all of the school costs. And we get rid of the Rodent – what’s not to love?

    Better to talk about medians anyway. The average wage is pushed up by all those multimillionaires. The median is a lot lower, and half the country has to get by on that.

  29. Have Costello on the mute button waiting for Hockey and Bailey.

    Can we fast forward to 23 November already? Sheeesh ….. This is like slow Chinese Water torture …….

  32. Burgey (672)

    There can’t be any costing dramas. The treasury worked it all out and Howard and Costello conveniently presented it to Labor last Monday.

    Very generous of them.

    Costello’s starting to get some testing questions now and I don’t think it’s going very well for him.

  34. This is like slow Chinese Water torture …….

    for a minute I thought you were saying”This is like slow Chinese Waiter torture …….same thing I suppose.

    Liberal: Go for Greed..

  37. I had to dodge the flying vegetables and squeeze between the Party Corflutes in this blog to get a post in! Shouldn’t you guys be stuffing envelopes or putting balloons around Pantecs right now???

    This election is getting harder to call by the day:

    1. Labor with a compelling lead (still) on TPP and PPM basis
    2. Coalition with a quick and deep cut to margin early
    3. Labor needs 16 seats (achievable, theoretically) but yet the marginals in Tas/Qld not uniform
    4. No one knows full details of preference deals with Dems/FFP, which is tight marginal contests could clinch a deal. An ALP/FFP preference deal in QLD would almost certainly clinch marginals in doubt for Labor. Dems assistance in Brisbane, Adelaide might also assist GRN preferencing.
    5. Coalition has both Costello and Howard to spread the press, Gillard has had an image revamp and has started the cunning tactic of smiling in interviews..

    There will be no landslide seat majority in this election and more than most other recent elections, the Senate result may be a main feature of interest for the possibilities of practical/viable government… What a weird election 🙂

  38. Rates Analyst: Perhaps it’s the fact that $31b is about 91% of $34b. The extra .5% would be given that the figures I found are rounded off to the nearest billion.

  39. The usual line of cliches from the smirk – like being hit over the head with a feather duster. Hey steven any chance you can head on back over to Tims site. He’s probably missing your incisive analysis

  42. Darn the left keeps calling Howard a rodent that is small minded…so i wouldnt go on about us pointing out Rudd eats his own ear wax LOL!

    If you asked people Darn whether people would want to control how their money was spent (tax cuts) they’d like our plan instead of Labors socialist plan in which they decide how ppls tax cuts should be spent!

  43. I know I am biased but, Costello’s delivery was flatter than a nightcartman’s hat. Droning, carping and boring.

    Has that look about him that he can see his whole career disappearing down the dunny.

  44. 690- they are here to annoy and stymie debate not converse on anything of substance. Young Libs are like that, I mean really these guys think the Rodent is cool for gods sake and believe it without a trace of irony.

  45. GG, the focus groups have probably told him to concentrate on not smirking. He does a very good job at being sombre when necessary. He wouldn’t want to blow the speech by smirking his way through it.

  47. I have to agree with the “Me Tooism with paint” scenario. Of course, the Coalition will be hard pressed to find problems with this policy. The only place they could conceivably find it is in the education rebate and elective surgery waiting list, otherwise you can identify the exact same flaw – if any – in the coalition tax policy.

  49. LOL, you can always see how good a plan is by the fear it creates in those of the opposite camp. Both on here and at all the MSM comment blogs the libs are bashing away like manic frenzied demons trying to counter it.

    Rudd will shore up his majority vote with this tax announcement, great stuff.

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