ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  7. Costello is definitely not a very good orator. Thanks Julie re Bailley’s performance… I don’t know how you answered before the question but time zones are intriguing things.

  8. Crikey Whitey Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 5:27 pm

    #734 Let It End or Julie

    What was Costello doing there?

    Oh Costello ran out for a “don’t forget about me” interview after Rudd left. He shouldn’t have bothered, had nothing or relevance to say, he was so depressed he couldn’t even manage a decent smirk.

  9. Howard’s hard of hearing, so he probably hears” lapdog”, and wonders why Rudd is subsidising people to have Downer in their home

  13. I missed Hockey vs Mike Bailey. So Bailey kicked Hockey’s arse? Brilliant!
    David Spears cheerleading for the Liberals: a taste of things to come on Sunday night.

  14. Crikey pointed out today that Howard asked the Chaser to pick on people who are alive…ie not him…hope the Chaser takes the free kick on Wednesday

  16. Speers was blatantly helping Hockey, not that it did him any good though. Rudd needs to be wary of Speers in the debate.

  18. #761
    I think Minchin the finance minister is struggling with the steering wheel, just barely managing to keep the speeding beast on the track until Smirk gets back to his desk

  23. Crikey Whitey,

    Costello was live in Melbourne with his spiel. The debate between Hockey and Bailey was pre-recorded in the studios in Sydney. They pre-empted the debate for Costello and then put the debate on in its entirety when Costello was done. Sorry if we misled anyone, they weren’t in the same place 🙂

  24. Gotta stop drinking for a moment I thought you wrote “I think Tabitha clocks on about the same time as Shanahan’s dead…

  25. no, no – it can only be words/phrases uttered by Mr. Rudd or Mr. Howard during the Great Debate. Print out a big list of phrases, cut them up seperately, get your mates over… each of you take turns pulling a phrase out of bag – turn on your plasma’s and settle down with a cartoon of stubbies and let the fun begin!

    (This is why the person drawing working families will die of alcohol poisoning… on the other hand… that gets me thinking… perhaps if you could make sure that your token liberal invitee (every good party needs a liberal pinata) draws ‘working families’… hey! we could possibly decrease the liberal vote by 1 or 2% within 90 minutes!)

  27. Okay, who’d prefer eating their ear wax to reading through 691 posts…

    So Labor’s tax policy was always going to be directed at education/families. Clever, in that it can be sold as giving incentive to all families to ensure equity and modernity in access to computers, internet and school books.

    Most of it will end up as middle class/upper middle welfare (upgrade your home computer, buy another laptop for everyone with kids).

    The remainder will go over as ‘me-tooism’

  28. The Labor staffers must be spending more time rigging the polls than eating their own ear wax like their Saint Rudd!

    Shouldnt you all be out door knocking after Labor’s shocker week 1?

  30. Ta, Julie. Costello was just on PM, droning on incomprehensibly about the plan. Can’t report, fell asleep. Just caught the word’s, working mums.

  31. Maybe Hockey rang Costello and told him Bailey had won, so Costello obliged by calling a presser, hoping the debate would be bumped

  36. Looks like the Lib staffers overloaded the News Ltd poll. It seems to have been taken down.

    Glen, you should tell your mates not to be so enthusiastic. I watched as the not in favour vote picked up 40 points in about 30 minuted.

  37. Costello’s day just went from bad to ugly 😉 ……

    “Analysts expect another chunky rise in Australian inflation for the third quarter and it’s a close call whether that will be enough to trigger the first ever rate rise during an election campaign, a Reuters poll showed.

    The consumer price index (CPI) is due out next Wednesday, October 24, and is crucial for the outlook for rates. Since the start of 2006 there have been four “high” readings for CPI and each was followed by a tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).”

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/inflation-rates-as-pms-nightmare/2007/10/19/1192301035483.html

  38. “Most of it will end up as middle class/upper middle welfare (upgrade your home computer, buy another laptop for everyone with kids).”

    By definition, very few middle class, and no upper middle families are on the Family Tax Benefit (Part A).

  42. Julie,

    That means there will be two weeks of will they rise/won’t they rise talk until the Reserve Bank makes a decision on November 7.

    Could create uncertainty amongst the mortgage belt and who do you blame?

  45. Hey, I’ve got an idea for us singles. Who are always called upon.

    A subsidy to compensate for the cost of taking the young rellies out and about, or picking them up from school, babysitting, or funding their parents.

    Or, in my case, damages. One little beast crashed my brand new electric bike into a pole last week. What about a subsidy for electric bikes, anyway? Wanted it for among other things, green means.

  46. 792,

    GG – it bloody serves Costello and Howard right for not calling the election in September as soon as APEC was over and having the election on 20th of 27th of October. They have diced with death here (their own jobs) and they are going down in flames 🙂

  48. Libs need to get on song with their message 🙂

    “Government frontbencher Tony Abbott has referred to Australian unions as no more important than local football clubs only a few hours after Prime Minister John Howard hosed down controversy over similar comments by his Workplace Relations Minister.”

    [Btw. Hockey seemed to “pull back” somewhat from those comments during the debate today when pressed by Bailey]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007workplace/abbott-dismisses-unions/2007/10/19/1192300996446.html

  49. Laurie Oakes’ political report on channel 9 news tonight was a horror negative piece of reporting. Rudd is being accused of me-too-ism and not being able to deliver his own tax package.

    If anybody wants to organise a riot over media bias, I’M IN.

  50. Glen,

    The earwax joke was funny one time but over and over? Now you’re acting like a teenager. Next you’ll be telling us that Howard has never picked his nose or wiped his own backside.

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