As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
Kina, the muppets in the Tory supporting press (and on this site)will still find a way to hammer the ALP even if the produce the greatest tax package this country has ever seen. There is talk of them having something ready around or on Sundays debate.
I hope cooler heads prevail and they continue with the ‘rope a dope’ strategy. The Rodent King has hit them with everything he’s got,the polls are holding, and Rudd needs to keep calm. There is plenty of time left to roll out policies.
Rudd interviewing Rudd
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/is-this-funny-yes-it-is/2007/10/19/1192300995525.html
Nostra
I think there should be a ban on anyone reverting to the tired and worn ‘me too’ phrase – its bloody tedious. Say something original rather than something cooked up by crosby, texter and shanaghan.
I would think that for the Libs to win, they HAVE to have a higher primary than the ALP, since they tend to get less of a preference flow from the minors. With the Greens being the major minor (??) and having a reasonable profile this time around that should reinforce preference flows to the ALP.
Is there any way the LNP can win if they poll a lower primary than the ALP??
Gary,
It takes time to wear down a positive approval rating.
The ads are directed at the “team” and “union influence” exactly because KR is so popular. The expectation is that if these resonate (which i think they will) that over time it will eat into KR’s positives.
Once you eat into KR’s positives then it is easier to pin an attack on him. I think you will see the Liberals pivot from 70% union frontbench to how could KR control his 70% union front bench. Gavan O’Connor of course gives them a nice excuse to move to that narrative.
Having said that KR’s positives are already coming down. The point of KR being an economic conservative was that he was different not same old Labor. He cant really show he is different when he is saddled with his union front bench -that’s why the attack ad is so damaging for Labor.
Being paralysed on tax wont help either – he is not JWH in 1996 – in 1996 Labor set up the expectation that Liberal would have a radical tax plan that wouldnt pass muster – when JWH came out with something ordinary it destroyed their last hope. For Labor delay on tax is going to be damaging – he should have just come out this week and said yep its fine we’ll do it too. It adds to the impression that KR cant handle pressure as shown with Robert McClelland a couple of weeks ago.
Sure, the coalition have been frothing at the mouth about this, but is there any actual evidence that anyone is listening? I think they’re having an argument with themselves, and losing. 🙂
I’m also concerned that there is too much assumption of this. Even if the tax policy is the only major economic policy, I certainly expect a whole raft of “values based” social policies to come yet.
I agree with Sean, there has been efforts by some parts of the media to construct some mommentum for the government. They surely need it. If Galaxy was not on the scene today then people would be arguing the change in the Nielsen primary vote really did not add up to much. Galaxy may have have got their final poll about right in 2004 but they have had quite a few hiccups and rogue results in the last six months, not to mention asking some pretty bizzare and leading questions in some of their polls.
There are still five weeks to go in the campaign and people shouldn’t be getting too spooked about a couple of percentage points movements combined with Coalition attempts to construct an impression that they are on the comeback trail. If Labor had been offered these poll results for the first week of the campaign ten months ago they would have accepted them with glee.
As far as these polls go, given the unchanged ALP primary and relatively small 2PP movement, I’m not concerned at the moment, even if Monday’s Newspoll (the most important of the campaign) is in line with these.
But in that case, of course the next Newspoll will become the most important of the campaign. 😉
Rates Analyst — I would be flabbergasted if they didn’t have a 6 week (42 day) campaign plan. Everyone knew this was going to be a 6 week campaign.
Much of the press has been pro Howard Govt since they helped the barrons with media-ownership laws and donated $2 bn in advertising to them. Has always been the case and will always be the case whilst Labor supporters keep buying their papers and not punishing them for partisan behaviour.
Frankly if they got punished with losing half their readership because of unfair reporting at election time they may just ease up a bit – or have no jobs.
I certainly don’t buy any murdoch paper. And I know a lot of the Chinese community that I know here have stopped buying The Australian because of its Govt spin.
People talk about baseball bats for Keating or Howard – I have one for the MSM.
Possible tax plan today, according to The Age;
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/rudd-tax-plan-hint/2007/10/19/1192300994580.html
I suspect we’ll hear the tax plan this afternoon, so that it gets lots of play in the weekend papers.
Everyone, don’t bother reading Isabella’s crap. It’s just plain crap.
Hahaha – ahh I love some of these justifications for the swings. I won’t comment on them until we see a bit more then two polls saying the same thing.
Don’t know if this has been discussed in other threads – there’s been a few opened in the last 12 hours – but those following the Senate race might be interested to know about the article in The Advertiser today.
Nick Xenophon will NOT be running under the no pokies banner. He will be announcing a running mate next week – a ‘well known South Australian.’ It looks like he will have a ‘letter above the line’ but not a party name.
Make life a bit tougher.
(this article was right next to one called ‘Could this be the death for the Democrat?’ Sadly ironic.)
Ashley, I have it on very good authority that Labor campaign strategy, and it used on all levels of their campaign, is to have a very specific day to day plan for 33 days and to save at least 80% of their campaign budget for those 33 days.
It doesn’t mean that they don’t campaign for the rest of the time it just means that they don’t campaign as much.
Will someone please tell the ALP to put Bob Hawke into an ALP ad to counter the anti-union attack from the government?
There’s not much use Rudd doing it. Coming from Hawke it would be much more effective. He’s very well liked and was a former “union boss” himself.
What better way to counter the union bosses argument than to say, look, one of the most popular PMs ever was a union boss. So shut up!
What about Shorten and the Beaconsfiled miners? Saying things like “Unions are here to help the workers…. And I’m proud to have done so”
Perhaps I could assume LTEP’s mantle as chief pessimist. I am seriously thinking about sticking a $20 on the government to win while their odds are still above $2.50. The things that have made me glum are the ALP’s inability to go in hard on the Government and the fact that at the end of the day the country is not in a dire state and that it is quite hard to actually justify a change without relying on soft issues like AWB, Chidren overboard and Iraq. The Tories are the most vicious, tenacious, cunning, divisive and cynical pack of s**ts that have ever graced the treasury benches and it will take nothing short of a revolution to blast them out. Kevin and the ALP are just too damn soft. They are rabbits staring at the headlights waiting to be hit.
Imacca at #153: I have done an analysis of labors primary votes in elections since 1983, and everytime the labor primary vote has been higher than 40%, they have gained a 2PP result > 50%.
The only election labor have lost since 1983 when their primary vote was above 40%, was in 1998, when they polled 40.1%.
The only election labor has won since 1983 with a primary vote less than 40% is in 1990 when they polled 39.4%, and slightly less than 50% of the 2PP.
So all you doomsayers out there, a labor primary vote, even if it was to drop to around 41-42% is still very, very competitive.
In fact Labor’s primary vote is a better predictor of electoral success than labor’s primary vote being above that of the coalition.
Sean at 127:
I have that syndrome.
And can you tell me, doctor, why I still can’t get to sleep?
And why the Channel Seven chopper chills me to my feet?
And what’s this rash that comes and goes, can you tell me what it means?
God help me, I was only nineteen.
And clearly the abestosis victims will be happy contribute their pro-union sentiments.
The ACTU should run the ads.
ESJ
I think you’re putting too much store in the notion that unions are percieved by the public as a threat. The right wing campaign to stigmatise the unions was at full throttle in the 70s post whitlam when ogres like Norm Gallagher were running riot. The unions were essentially tamed by Hawke Keating throught P and I accord and actually had a massive role in the reforms they introduced and the gains in productivity made in that period. Since then the decline in union membership has been mistaken for antagonism toward unions rather than related to the restructing of the aust workplace. Recently theres been a number of highly public cases which have promoted the good work of unions – in particular the James Hardy asbestos case. Workchoices has given the union movement reknewed credibility. To anybody who isn’t some rabid right wing ideologue or 70s refugee the anti union stuff doesn’t resonate like it used to. I wouldn’t put so much store in the scare campaign saving your bacon.
Snow —
33 days out of 41 is 80.5%. So by saying they are spending 80% of their money during 33 days they are effectively saying they will be spreading it evenly over 41 days.
Que?
Thats right Matthew – some people are suffering realignment syndrome after the silly stellar numbers of the faux campaign.
Fact is, all indicators of primary vote, and the likely pro-ALP breakdown in 2nd prefs firmly indicate that Team Rodent is about two miles up sh*t creek.
Watching them try to splash-paddle back in five weeks will get very ugly.
Id say just about everything has to go right for them. Not one stuffup, a pisslame ALP performance will also be needed, and perhaps an external shock of some sort.
I wouldn’t give ya tuppence for their chances.
A narrowing happens when the ‘swing ‘ is larger than the MOE.
It wasn’t in Neilsen and we do not know the MOE in Galaxy but I am betting it is 3%+.
so no narrowing. Everything is within the MOE
Good morning
Queensland Galaxy Poll Unmasked
We have now got to the bottom of the supposedly bad-for-Labor Galaxy poll in the Queensland marginals. Peter Brent has posted the primary figures for that poll, which apparently weren’t made available at the time the (alleged) 2PV figure was released. The primaries were ALP 45, Lib 44, Greens 7, others 4. This could not possibly produce an ALP 2PV of 51%, as was reported. If we allocate the Greens 80% to Labor and Others 50% to Labor we get 52.6%. In those four seats, that’s a swing of 6.7%. If that swing was uniform across Queensland, Labor would win Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert and Longman. If it was repeated nationally, Labor would win 28 seats. In other words it was an excellent poll for Labor. This would have been obvious if the primary vote figures had been released. I don’t like conspiracy theories, but I’m afraid this makes me rather suspicious of Galaxy polls.
Ashley
I meant from when the candidates began campaigning, back in april/may
[Snow —
33 days out of 41 is 80.5%. So by saying they are spending 80% of their money during 33 days they are effectively saying they will be spreading it evenly over 41 days.
Que?]
I interpreted what he wrote to mean they are going to spend 20% in the first 33 days, then 80 percent in the last 7.
Is there a Morgan Poll due today and at what time
Statisticians are damn liars to begin with.
How are we supopsed to remain calm if they are politicised damn liars too?
Disraeli must be turning in his grave…
Yes Adam and take 1% off your notional 6.7% swing and Labor would win 2 seats in Queensland.
The Libs have gained because Labor have been lame this week, almost like this was a campaign tactic they didn’t expect, i.e. a long campaign with big displays of incumbent power in the early barrages. Seriously you can say they have been playing it cool, and they may have been but the impression they give is that they are dithering and waving their ****s in the wind. The rabbit in the headlights look is not a good one regardless of the rationale that Rudd is keeping his powder dry, bunkering down and sitting out the blitzkrieg. AND the constant whinge about negative campaigns is crap, all Labor do is paint themselves into a corner of being soppy, bright and fluffy when Howard is a sitting duck for a relentless well crafted negative campaign, yes… I know you can wax lyrical about everyone being sick of the muck but in the end that too is idealistic dreaming, one can achieve more with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone, they they just need to get on with it.
Oh, ok. So with 5 days of the campaign almost gone that leaves 33 action-packed days out of 36. Stand-by for policy blitz from both sides…
For fairness Adam, if you do respond make it symetric… report the results with both a 1% smaller and a 1% larger swing
The betting market provides the most accurate probability of the outcome to the election. So where do the two parties fair dinkum stand at the moment:
Sportingbet – ALP 1.60 / LIB 2.35
AIS – ALP 1.60 / LIB 2.35
Betfair – ALP 1.62 / LIB 2.56
I think Rudd can finish strongly in the campaign. His housing affordability and more nurses policies are very good as oppossed to Howards no vision, no ideas, no plans tax cuts in which a monkey could deliver.
[The primaries were ALP 45, Lib 44, Greens 7, others 4. This could not possibly produce an ALP 2PV of 51%, as was reported. If we allocate the Greens 80% to Labor and Others 50% to Labor we get 52.6%. In those four seats, that’s a swing of 6.7%.]
I pointed this out in the Galaxy QLD marginal seat thread. The preferences in 2004 were very anti-Labor. It doesn’t make sense for them to be that bad this time round.
Why can’t pollsters simply ASK for preferences if the person being interviewed doesn’t nominate Labor or Liberal as their prmary vote? You’d think that is what they would do now that the campaign is actually on.
Thanks Adam. I think we can all agree it’s hardly surprising.
Edward, 2 seats in Queensland would at least have Labor on track to where they need to be.
[Is there a Morgan Poll due today and at what time]
Usually one would be released today about 1 hour after it is issued in the Crikey.com.au email (generally around 1 PM).
But who knows if they have changed things because of the campaign.
I am starting to believe Wayne Swan is this election season’s Medicare Gold.
Galxy is starting to have a smell about it…
OK, let’s round it up to the nearest 10% shall we? That’s a 10% swing, how nice. You can jiggle the numbers all you like, I have presented them as they stand.
What Edward, you mean something the Libs go on and on about that the general public don’t know or care about?
They can, but it is known that this is inaccurate. I think this is because people are more likely to follow the HTV card than would be suggested by just giving them a free choice in a polling situation. I’m sure one of the real psephs will be along soon to correct this 🙂
I’m not sure why any polling organisation would not want to advertise the whole facts of their survey ? After going to the trouble of taking an opinion poll you’d think that all the numbers would be made available. Does seem a little odd. Perhaps it is to stop people from trying to work out how they distribute their preferences ?? Or maybe something else …
ooo 10% swing
SWIIIIIIIIIIIIIING
now people calm down
The Ruddster has $34b in reserve
I predict the great debate may be an eye opener…
Apparently Peter Garrett is re-releasing “the dead heart lives” as “the dead cat bounce”.
Next poll will be 55/45.
Centre individually the bookies have Labour winning 16, 2 on evens and 20 good chances (under $1 diff). It won’t change from this Labor 20 seats!
Martin is correct. On the day, nearly everyone takes a HTV and follows it. That’s why preferences flow tightly, and that’s also why Senate polls are bunkum.
Shame to see the dems go, i will be giving them my second preference. they have don enough penance.
175 Yes Adam it all sounded a bit sus on the day it was released. I still see no reason why Longman would be held by the coalition.
I’m waiting for the ALP ad campaign that has quotes from people like Peter McGauran saying that wind farms are frauds and the other coalition fogeys going on about climate change being all hype. These has-beens know that they’re done like a dinner on climate change – only options: continue to ignore the issue at their peril or do a massive backflip on kyoto. There are quotes galore from the last 12 months on climate change – pick a soundbite, any soundbite and you have yourself a powerful ad showing the coalition as the last to the table on this. Being a mandarin speaker, I’m sure that Rudd is familiar with the Chinese term that Homer Simpson defines as “crisittunity”; the simultaneous assesment of something as both crisis and opportunity (stay with me here). That is what climate change presents to Australia. In recent years, Howard’s deliberate lack of attention has worsened the crisis and wasted opportunities – Australia could be leading the world in alternative energy tech development now if it weren’t for the old man having to pay protection money to the Greenhouse mafia (google Dr Guy Pearse if you don’t know what I’m saying here). There is no issue in Australia that more thouroughly highlights Howard as yesterday’s man. This campaign has barely started and yes it has started with a focus on the coalition’s strength; buying votes. As it moves on, we’ll see the issues that people care about come to the fore. Let’s not forget the newspoll from just a few days ago that had voters ratings of the issues most important to them – 1. Health/Medicare, 2. Water planning, 3. Education, 4. THE ENVIRONMENT!
Howard pushing this tax bonanza so early is like having the choice to play one of the finals on your home ground and going for the preliminary rather than the Grand final……at the end of the day, it ain’t gonna help you win the flag!