As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
Quite what is the point of this article by Tony Wright?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/pms-fans-go-the-whole-hug/2007/10/18/1192300954624.html
Do we have any empirical evidence on cuddle polls. Is this their first preference for a nuggle or is it a case of if you can’t nuggle the one you want, nuggle the one you’re with?
Is this an area Kev should be worried about?
An old favourite!
Mr Rocket, A small dip in the still v.high polls and you all get very surly very quickly. It will still take a “Medicare Gold” to blow the election for Labor I think.
It seems that Crikey.com.au scored yesterday as a narrow win for Labor, I guess because the announcement that housing affordability is the lowest it has been since 1984.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
Most likely the government will win today based on the reporting of poll results. If Rudd announces his tax plan this afternoon then that should shift it back his way, because it will probably be the dominant story in the widely read Saturday papers.
Labor primary on 48% and they’re meant to start worrying? Wake me when the Libs are evens on primary – then they’re in the game.
Clearly Labor wants to turn the long campaign back against Howard. Howard figured Rudd would run out of puff and has set off at a pace like the Hare. Tortoise Kev shuffles off slowly and allows the Libs to sprint away and expend their best stuff early, no bother, he has a teflon coated shell. I don’t think we’ll see too much this weekend, or in fact next week. It’s a looooong campaign and when you start from as far in front as Rudd, you can afford to cruise early. Let Howard spend all his money in the first fortnight. Rudd will then have a whole month to overwhelm the election with ads and announcements.
The election doesn’t really start til November. The 7th should be a fun day.
I find it hard to believe any tax plan release from the ALP could be much of a surprise at this point.
[I find it hard to believe any tax plan release from the ALP could be much of a surprise at this point.]
I think it will, because it won’t be an identical plan, which makes it an easy story for journalists to write about, i.e. emphasising the differences.
Red wombat (#299) – is this the 2007 “Children Overboard?”
Re PI @ 288,
Almost the same as yours – I will be voting Greens in the Senate and ALP second. I definetely agree with the order of your bottom tier though :):)
Hmmm.. a few ideas:
1. Tony Abbott is a dill – I never know what he is talking about. Even after I’ve asked him the question.
2.Conscripts to Iraq – I doubt this will happen, especially in large numbers. The contracting scene there is cheaper per soldier, no on-going costs when maimed or killed. Contractors come from anywhere, especially from rejected regimes (no left/right bias shown). Plus Aussies can now take a year off and get some Army skills and then go contrating in Iraq and other locales.
3. Joe Hockey is fat – he really should lose some weight, it’s just not a good look.
4. What is it that Howards sons do, as well as a few other Liberal Loose-outs – refer to 2.
5. What ever happened to Peter Reith? Did really become the Grim Reaper?
6. Who is Unity Resources Group?
Red wombat @ 285… That thing is so stupid… but so funny and strangely satisfying…lol
93% Lab 7% Lib 4 me… Whats your highest? 😉
Kevin Rudd calls a news conference for 2:15
I broke my mouse smashing Howard 🙁
I just get sick of the media – I mean – really sick of it…
The GG ‘Abbot waters down hospital plan’ Not the government, not the PM, not John Howard… but Abbot (not even a minister) the Coalition is doing an about face! it’s so obviously policy on the run… it’s so obvious that they have no policy… making it all up as they go along… and yet, the media will allow him to get away with it – it’s just a minor correction afterall. Could you imagine if Labor was to do a similar minor correction?
It’s always been like this – the MSM save their biggest bias for the period where it makes the most impact – campaigns. Fairfax can be all even handed for 2 and 3/4 years… but come campaign time… you know who they’re supporting!
… and yeah, I’m not worried by the latest polls, not yet. I do worry about the consolidation of oligopolistic, plutocratic control of this country.
Er, no.
The last Galaxy/Nielsen poll average would have been 55/45 from early October (ACN taken Oct 4-6).
That represents an approx fall of about 0.1% per day, although given the MOE it may well be a rise over the same period.
Try again.
If its a tax plan at 2.15 I hope he doesn’t forget pensioners. My mum is doing it tough.
Much as I admire you principled voters, if there was one Senate seat to be filled and the choice was a Lib or a FF, I would prefer a FF candidate for pragmatic reasons…
[3. Joe Hockey is fat – he really should lose some weight, it’s just not a good look.]
Well, what else do you expect from someone who was the boss of a student union? You know what all those unionists are like, you’ve met one, you’ve met them all.
[ 293 Edward StJohn Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Paul K,
Whats happened ? Have you been hitting the partisan juice again? Your posts have become very belligerent (for you) in the last week. Everything alright? ]
.
.
Edward,
Can’t help it. Ever since the Senator gave Glen that promotion and let him wear the chicken suit I’ve been hitting the ‘Howard’s End’ wine bottles.
[If its a tax plan at 2.15 I hope he doesn’t forget pensioners. My mum is doing it tough.]
That would be good politics, saying they will defer tax cuts for the $150,000 tax bracket, but instead give pensioners an extra $20 a week.
Just so no one is confused, I am waiting with a baseball bat for the Prime Minister. Someone has got to do it.
“…free character assesment…” great stuff:
Ms Gillard today said that Mr O’Connor, who has held the Victorian seat of Corio for 14 years, had also said some supportive things about Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
“This isn’t unknown in Australian politics that people become disillusioned with the political parties that they’ve served,” she told Southern Cross Broadcasting.
“I mean, (former Liberal prime minister) Malcolm Fraser is frequently in the media, every second day, giving John Howard a free character assessment which he probably wouldn’t like.”
Oligopolistic and plutocratic are quite discombobulating.
Someone has to lead the way and it may as well be me. Is there anyone else out there with a baseball bat?
Chris B
We’re in Australia. Make it cricket bats.
Anyone with tots – Keep them away from Liberal Ministers.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22613341-2,00.html
Well said John Rocket. The main reason that Howard got elected in the first place was because the media turned con Keating with a vengeance. But now we can’t even rely on the ABC to be impartial.
Its not much of a democracy when the media cheerleads for one side of politics.
309 Observer Says: October 19th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
You shouldn’t insult the future leader of the opposition like that.
Got my Nulla Nulla ready 😉
Chris B, mine is a cricket bat.
I’ve got a blow-pipe…….no comeback for him
Will a golf club do?
Cheer Up Dudes,
Even Labor will find it hard to blow it from here! Your still in front by the proverbial mile.
Although I do have a sense of trepidation about the tax policy, presumably Swannie has had a hand in it.
Mine is better than bats etc., it’s a vote.
A vial of Holy water and wooden stake.
Megan, golf-clubs are fine, especially wedges. Probably best of all would be star-pickets.
Edward, I’m beginning to really warm to you. A realistic coalition supporter. Go figure. We should have him stuffed.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/labor-tax-policy-due-out-at-215pm.html
[ One of the tots burst into tears ]
Steve,
Maybe Turnbull can get a gig on Halloween scaring the kids.
Chris B – 323 – “ME TOO!!!”
Hee. A dog – named Rupert – wearing a “Kevin07” T-shirt pooping next to Krudd. Says it all.
Poor Kruddy’s been dancing to the PM’s tune all week. First he agrees to debate Mr Howard on Sunday, now he’s been forced to release a tax package weeks earlier than he intended. Bozo.
Cricket bats and golf clubs at my house 😉 Reminds me of a dog I used to have many years ago when I lived in the US. I was able to teach her to “speak” by using the words “Republican”. So when ever there was news on the TV dominated by the Republicans, I used to have her barking at the TV on command 😉
Howard, due to the state of the polls, was forced to release his tax policy early. So who has been forced into action again?
Ok, I’ll try this again. Headline: “Turnbull’s Spins Sends Kids Overboard!”
judy, the dog in my house responds rather loudly to “where’s the rat?”
Morgan poll out (a phone poll) — surprised noone has mentioned it yet … poll was taken Oct 17/18.
ALP leads 55.5/45.5 on 2-party preferred.
Primaries are 45/39.5, with ALP dropping 4.5 points from last poll.
Interestingly, “think will win” drops to 55.5% for Labor (from 62%). A few nervous nellies out there!
ooh, apologies, julie!
Good one, Optimist……!
Sorry, make that 55.5/44.5 TPP.
[ Hee. A dog – named Rupert – wearing a “Kevin07 T-shirt pooping next to Krudd]
Could have been worse. Could have been a Murdoch called Rupert.