ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  2. The Howard supporters claim that Rudd is a media darling and they are too soft on him. The Labor supporters claim the media are Howard sycophants and are terribly biased against Rudd.

    I’m confused… which is it?

  4. Questions on conduct of polls.

    1. QA: Who QA’s/audits these polls in terms of responses. What I’m getting at is where is the actual evidence that these were conducted. I know this sounds like a mass conspircay theory but how do we verifiably know that these were responses.

    2.Sample selection. I think I know these are supposed to be randomly selected but how do they make sure there’s an even spread of electorates?

    Sorry for the obvious nature of some of these. I’m new

  5. Julie, yes i’m in Adelaide and we have two dogs, one’s a very intelligent blue heeler cross names Charis and the other is an exceedingly stupid maltese terrier named Sacha, she’s so stupid she has no taste and would probably be all over Howard if he called around, she sell herself for a couple of hugs,but Charis now–she would eat him at the slightest command, i groan every time i see him on telly and she whimpers and growls in sympathy pmsl.
    ive got a piece of a goalpost to whack Howard with, a very precious piece of a goal post, many moons ago, when my footy team West Adelaide lost the grand final, their last kick had hit the goal post so they only got a point rather than a goal so a few sneaky westies snuck into Adelaide oval and chopped down the offending posts, my relic will be just right to swing at Howard and co.

  7. An interesting point about the Morgan poll is that they publish figures on “strong” and “soft” voters for the majors. This is based upon how those polled answer the “right or wrong direction” question. For example, people who think we are going in the right direction but are voting for the ALP are “soft” ALP voters.

    Anyway, the coalition’s 39.5% primary vote is made up of 30% strong and 9.5% soft voters.

    The ALP’s 45% primaries are made up of 27.5% strong and 17.5% soft.

    I’ve said before that I’m a believer in The Narrowing. Although I have issues with the methodology, I consider that these figures provide some support for the proposition that the majors are more likely to move closer together rather than further apart…

  8. Sean,
    yes I know. Very scary if you ask me. Actually, the scarier thing is knowing that Chris Mitchell is reproducing – uggghhh.

  12. Wow Glen, there’d be heaps of votes in that killer line. Wit like that’ll probably get him a gig as a standup comedian after he gets tossed out.

  14. 389
    Sean Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
    Optimist

    Did you know that Kevin Rudd is Chris Mitchells sons Godfather. (think I said that right)

    If that is true then Chris Mitchell is another gutless turd who puts murdoch before mateship aka Hockey attacking Rudd’s wife.

  15. I’m hoping the tax cuts made a big impact on Mon, the 1st day of Galaxy and ACN polls. Since then, I think the impact may well have decreased, as Morgan ph would suggest, as it was taken Wed/Thur. Newspoll on Mon will either confirm or deny that hypothesis.

  16. 3 core measures in the tax plan.

    1) Introduces 50% education tax refund for investment in kids education. 2.3b dollar education tax refund. Structure: if family is eligible for FTB A then submit claim for 50% refund up to $750 outlay for primary school kids. For 2ndary school – up to $1500. Eligibility for all parents eligible for FTB A – 2 million kids.

  19. Lefty E @394
    Looks like you are comparing the latest Morgan phone poll with thier previous f2f. The last phone poll was LNP 36 LAB 50

  26. Summary

    1. education tax refund system

    2. flatter tax system over 6 years, only 3 brackets

    3. contribute to reducing elective surgery waiting times.

  34. It’s definitely not me too…. I also saw BBerg headlines suggesting the tax cuts for the top brackets are defrerred..(no details sorry)

  35. Labor will be supporting government proposals except not the highest income tax bracket cuts which will fund the 3 aspects mentioned earlier for a total of additional $2.9b.

  36. I haven’t really got any idea of the detail (not watching), but I like the general idea:

    Don’t just give tax cuts — make them health and education directed tax cuts.

    That paints Howard as simply throwing money around, and Labor as actually doing something intelligent with it.

    Rudd is back in the game. This will dominate the media this weekend.

  39. What the hell does a tax policy have to do with reducing elective surgery waiting times or is this the unholy mutation of fiscal conservatism and socialism…

  42. So Labor dropped the tax cuts for people earning over 180k and is using the $2.9b saved in doing so to fund education tax refund and set up a fund to encourage states to reduce elective surgery waiting times across Australia. Other tax cuts are in line with the Coalition’s.

  44. It’s the general vibe Glen – Rudd has a plan, Rudd tax reform, Rudd hospitals, Rudd education, Rudd Rudd Rudd. That’s all the punters will take in on the TV news. That’s all that matters.

  45. Labor will submit plan to the treasury for assessment in the near future.

    Policy is in line with the ALP education revolution strategy.

    Finding ways to creatively use the tax system to help families improve their childrens’ education.

  46. Thats a classic – postpone the high income tax breaks to fund the rest of us…. thats a point of difference, how do you attack that?

  47. paladin @ 404

    If you mean, how do the market research companies know that their interviewers really have conducted their interviews and not just made up the responses? the answer is that supervisors from the market research companies make confirmatory telephone calls to a sample of the respondents to verify that they really spoke to the interviewer. If you mean, how does anybody else know that the market research companies aren’t just making up the whole thing? I don’t think there’s any direct confirmation. However, if they did do this, they would probably get a substantial number of obviously wildly wrong results, and that would destroy their credibility and hence their business. Which is, of course, why they check up on their own interviewers in the first place.

    The samples are not, in the strictest statistical sense, random. They come closer to what a statistician would call ‘stratified random’. That is, the pollsters try to get, as near as they can, a random sample from each of a pre-defined number of sub-groups: that is, for example, they might try to sample equal numbers of men and women (I always had to do this when I worked as a market research interviewer myself). For political polling I would guess that they try to get samples from different States and perhaps different parts of the State in proportion to population (or voter population) but I don’t know the details.

  48. I haven’t seen the detail on where the brackets fall….

    I saw the 30% bracket would be 30K to 180K.

    That does reduce the “progressive” nature of the system a bit, though the stratospheric salaries still pay more.

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