Electorate-level Morgan data

If you’ve got a lazy four grand to spare, Roy Morgan provides subscribers with “complete computer tabulations of the questions asked analysed by a range of demographics”. This isn’t much use to most of us, so it’s pleasing to learn that “for the rest of the campaign, Crikey will be working with Roy Morgan Research to mine the data deeper”. Today we are given cumulative two-party results for the “pre-Rudd” (January to December 2006) and “Post-Rudd” (January to June 2007) eras in seats that make the top 25 by numbers of public servants, self-employed, professionals/managers and unemployed. With due caution given to Morgan’s traditional skew to Labor, the early year Rudd honeymoon period and the general quirkiness of many of the results, here is a table showing Labor’s two-party preferred vote in each period from electorates of particular interest. By my reckoning, the sample sizes for any given electorate would be about 300 pre-Rudd and 150 post-Rudd. Also from Morgan: an alternative debate worm.

PRE-RUDD POST-RUDD
Solomon 48 64.5
Moreton 49 66
Ryan 46.5 55.5
Herbert 54 62.5
Sturt 45.5 58
Cook 40 60.5
Flinders 45 51
Eden-Monaro 50.5 65
Fadden 45.5 50.5
Bowman 48 52.5
Canning 44.5 48.5
Lingiari 49 45.5
McEwen 51.5 56
La Trobe 47.5 52
Leichhardt 50 57
Forde 51 59.5
Hume 56 56.5
Moncrieff 51 54
Boothby 50 48.5
Wide Bay 45 62
Gippsland 42.5 55.5
Kooyong 47.5 52
Wentworth 51 59
Warringah 44 57.5
Higgins 49.5 56.5
Curtin 38.5 53.5
Goldstein 47 58
Bennelong 49.5 57.5
Wakefield 67.5 68
Cowper 49.5 55.5
Gilmore 49.5 59.5
Grey 59 55
Paterson 51 56
Page 48 59
Dobell 53 67
Fairfax 47.5 52.5
Longman 56 63.5
Fisher 46 61.5

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Electorate-level Morgan data”

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  5. I was thinking: “I’ll call you back Janette, I’m helping a constituent with some outstanding issues.”

    On that classy note I am departing. Us Labor hacks have to get up early these days.

  7. ShowsOn: Not according to the disclosures on the AEC website – http://fadar.aec.gov.au/.
    Mind you, it’s not exactly easy to navigate or find information there – particularly when a lot of related parties only have PDF scans of handwritten forms in the system.

    Having said all that. The Cormack Foundation did drop $1M into the victorian liberal party in time for the last state election. This suggests that they really aren’t particularly clueful about how to spend their money wisely 😉

  9. For those of you with the hots for Patrica Petersen. I saw her at a public meeting last weekend. She was quite emotional and had that librarian dress-up look. The Greens candidates sucked up to the Liberals, Bronnie – yuueeekkk! – too much super-glue and spakfilla. Tony the stupid sneaked in the back late (I bet thats what they said of him at school), answered one question, and still I can never figure out if he misheard the question or I misheard the question, but I sure as hell never understand his answer. Then he bolted when Bronnie promised that Andrew Robb would provide the money to re-open Seaforth TAFE. Although that was under the proviso that the money would be given to an evil State Labor Governmenr who would probably use it for a National Park (aren’t they Federal?).

  11. Caption contest: what is Howard saying on the phone?

    ‘The hat didn’t provide any rabbits, so maybe I’ll check over here…’

    ‘We shall decide who flaunts breasts in this country, and the circumstances in which they flaunt them…’

  13. red wombat Says:
    October 23rd, 2007 at 11:31 pm
    “Janette can we have chicken breast for dinner tonight?”

    To which Janette replied.

    “No. I’ve already told you he’s not welcome in this house. Or Tanya.”

  21. 326
    Scotty Says:

    Glad you picked up on that post Scotty. Costello is totally wedged now and the outcome should be fun.

    A bit like the unknown, known, unknowns as Cheyney likes to say.

  23. Has anyone noticed that everytime the Libs do a policy announcemnt, they are upstaged by other news events.

    Last Week – Ben Cousiuns.

    This Week – John Ilian’s Death (Crazy John)

    Does anyone note a pattern here ? 🙂

  24. How was Mr SubPrimeMinister tonight? Sitting up there on the ABC telling the banks they can’t lift mortgage rates!

    Who is he? King Canute? (Mind you, he doesn’t mind slagging Rudd about the price of petrol, and asking what he’s going to do about it.)

    So the Reserve Bank is independent, but the retail banks operate under a central government fiat? As if!

    Mr SubPrimeMinister is going a bit wobbly.

  26. [How was Mr SubPrimeMinister tonight? Sitting up there on the ABC telling the banks they can’t lift mortgage rates!]

    He has ALWAYS talked about the economy as if he is a member of the Soviet politburo.

    He big notes himself by claiming he is in more control than he really is.

  28. “Ah, Comrade Cossie, can you send a couple of those bank board members off to Nauru to shovel guano for a while? That should make them toe the line!”

  29. Came home and turned on Lateline. I thought the election had been cancelled. Some guy talking up his book on the Vietnam war (a worthy tome no doubt). What’s going on down at the ole’ ABC? Where were all the pollies? Even Abbott would have been better than that. Maybe Virginia (sitting in for TJ for no apparent reason) doesn’t do pollies. Or Bob B; or even lardarse Joe lamenting the loss of his fabulous career … I assume the Rudd will just (i) copy the pensioner handout or (ii) give them a little bit more by way of an increase in the pension. BTW – the pokie venues will be creaming their jeans at the prospect of the oldies getting a lump sum $500. A fair bit of it will find it’s way into their infernal machines. $10 a week on the pension is probably a better option – and you can talk about income redistribution in something like a meaningful manner. Also, can someone tell me why the MSM is convinced that the Smirk will cream Swan? Is this just more of the retailing of Liberal party wholesale fantasy (sources are everything in journalism). When will they work out that the trend is about as solid as a large piece of uranium? And they need to start finding some new friends, soon.

    Oh well, another day, another failure of rodentine momentum.

    Is there a market on CPI figures, BTW?

  31. 478 Nauru.

    No guanos, as they say. Only pork remains. Heavier lifting. And they squeal.

    Glen woke me. Lateline so not interesting.

    I read La Cost Elle as threatening the Reserve, not the banks.

  32. Lateline was woeful this evening. Trioli is a pathetic lefty. At least Jones plays ball with three conservative journalists on Monday.

  33. Jen (364)

    “in fact one of the few talents of the Howard Government was that whenever they had someone who was a liability to replace,they always managed to find someone else just as appalling to take their place… a seemingly endless stream of morally bankrupt individuals”

    Couldn’t agree more. If you didn’t have the words “morally bankrupt” displayed prominently on your CV you had no hope of advancement in Howard’s government.

  34. “Generic Person Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 12:25 am
    Lateline was woeful this evening. Trioli is a pathetic lefty. At least Jones plays ball with three conservative journalists on Monday.”

    Agreed, GP. A light-weight chatting up a zealot to flog a book.

  35. 479 CL de Footscray Says:

    ‘Came home and turned on Lateline. I thought the election had been cancelled. ole’ ABC? Where were all the pollies’?

    CL de F. Coalition in the bunker.

    Abbott would have been better than that.

    More amusing, definitely.

    Maybe Virginia doesn’t do pollies.

    Can’t.

    Rudd will just (i) copy the pensioner handout or (ii) give them a little bit more by way of an increase in the pension.

    Natch, or check or cheque.

    The pokie venues will be creaming their jeans at the prospect of the oldies getting a lump sum $500.

    It’s all about upward income redistribution. That includes my earlier comment about the residentially cared for redistributing their utilities money into the pockets of the management.

    Also, can someone tell me why the MSM is convinced that the Smirk will cream Swan?

    Cos’ they can’t help it.

  37. Adam (448)

    I don’t know what Howard was saying but it reminds me of a scene from Fawlty Towers where Basil picks up the phone and says – “Hello Fawlty Titties”.

  38. Adam, how about:

    “Can’t talk now Janette, I’m just looking into something..”

    Or maybe:

    “Tony, mate, I’ve got a lady here who wants to know if Medicare still funds breast jobs. Can you help me out?”

  39. Frank Calabrese 473

    I noticed, possibly Andrew Robb, on his ABC World Yesterday (or the day before.) grizzling that Labor DELIBERATELY put out their tax policy, eg, to capture maximum media and Newspoll attention.

    So unfair.

  41. Crispydog (474) I still can’t work out why O’Brien didn’t pursue Costello about how he would stop the banks from raising rates if they chose to simply ignore his claims that there was no reason for them to do so.

  42. Puff pant pant! Thank god for these new-fangled camera phones! Just back in after catching a Michael Johnson stooge red handed ripping down one of my Ross Daniels posters in Bellbowrie! Caught the bastard in the flashlight, about three metres onto private property, just past midnight, wearing burglar gear! Looked like a f**king ninja! I reckon Johnson has a heap of Hong Kong Chinese in on 457 visas to work his turf – this one was actually using a Hertz rent-a-car.

  46. Wonder if Howard will use this.

    [US intelligence agencies have determined that the latest audio tape of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is authentic, the White House said.

    “Intelligence officials do believe that the tape is authentic and that it is Osama bin Laden,” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.

    The recording sounded like al-Qaeda was “trying to recapture some lost ground,” she said.

    In the audio recording aired on Monday, bin Laden urged insurgents in Iraq to unite with his al-Qaeda followers. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22639483-5005361,00.html

  48. Shane, this came from four tables which appear in Crikey (see the link in the post) listing the top 25 electorates by numbers of public servants, self-employed, professionals/managers and unemployed. If an electorate is not in any of those top 25s, I don’t have the figures. Christian Kerr might be able to help you if you drop him a line.

  50. Howard must be hoping for some Vote catching “Tampering for his ship to sail in.. Really want to see a party breakdown for each state.

    Party preferences have not been finalised. Although in the lower house most smaller party voters do not follow the recommendations of their HTC . The Greens for example can not direct their voters support nor can the Democrats. Where the ALP, Liberal and National Parties can most certainly direct 80% of their vote. If you can not influence the voters preferences then your out of the game. The figures published above show a swing in the marginals is greater then first thought. The election could be over before it has been run. What was the primary vote in each electorate and what is the percentage of undecided/uncommitted? A low sample rate of 150 can produce a distortion at the bottom end but is more or less right at the top end /2PP

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