D-day minus 20

• In the midst of the Friday morning poll flurry, I somehow failed to take note of the Advertiser poll of 778 voters from Wakefield. Labor’s Nick Champion led Liberal MP David Fawcett 58-42 on two-party preferred, from 47 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote. Yesterday the Advertiser ran a front-page item complaining that South Australia was being overlooked because its three Liberal marginals all looked like foregone conclusions for Labor. One might protest that Sturt and Boothby are in play, but the article informs us that “neither is expected to change hands unless the political stocks of the Government deteriorate even further in SA”.

• Speaking on Lateline on Friday night, Michael Kroger claimed “people in the Liberal Party and around the traps generally” were “more and more confident that the two high profile seats in NSW of Bennelong and Malcolm Turnbull’s seat in Wentworth will be won by the Government” – although Rod Cameron wasn’t so sure. Kroger also rejected talk Labor might have its eyes on Casey and Aston in Melbourne, as their campaign focus was entirely on more marginal seats.

• The Age economics reporter Josh Gordon on the targeting of recent election promises:

In the past week alone, the Coalition has announced a $15 million south coast sustainable regions program (for the NSW electorate of Eden-Monaro), $300,000 for a Beaconsfield Heritage Museum (for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), $400,000 for palliative care in Geelong and Colac (for the Victorian seats Corio and Corangamite) and $16 million to extend the Tasmanian freight equalisation scheme to include King Island (for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon). Those states with more marginal electorates have generally faired best. Queensland has been the overwhelming winner. It has been promised $878.7 million by the Coalition, including hundreds of millions of dollars worth of road funding announcements. Western Australia has also been the next major beneficiary, with a $405 million plan announced to extensively upgrade Perth’s roads. Victoria, where there are no Coalition seats held by a margin of less than 4.9 per cent, has been promised $238 million by the Coalition, despite its 25 per cent share of Australia’s population and economy. Labor has been just as expedient with its spending plans. Its policy promises tally to about $47.6 billion. As with the Coalition, the vast bulk would be soaked delivering tax cuts. A significant chunk of the remaining cash – about $4.3 billion – would be used to fund spending decisions targeting specific states. Again, Queensland has been the major winner, with more than $2.6 billion on offer. Victoria, where there are eight Labor seats held by margins of less than 5 per cent, would fare relatively better under a Labor government, with about $724 million promised.

• I don’t get too excited about ballot paper placement, but it’s nonetheless interesting to note that Maxine McKew is last out of 13 in Bennelong. Notable candidates elsewhere: long-standing Liberal preselection aspirant Michael Darby running for the CDP in Dobell; former Greens MPs Michael Organ in Cunningham and Robin Chapple in Kalgoorlie; former state Noosa MP Cate Molloy, running as an independent in Wide Bay; and perennial trouble-maker Stephen Mayne in Higgins. No sign of Kelly Hoare in Shortland. In the Senate, former Labor member for Kalgoorlie Graeme Campbell is on a ticket in Western Australia along with former state One Nation MP John Fischer. The fourth Labor New South Wales candidate I was wondering about the other day turns out to be Pierre Esber, a Right faction Parramatta councillor who had long coveted the Bennelong preselection. The all-important Senate preference tickets will be revealed this afternoon.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “internally, Labor remains confident about winning Bass back from the Liberals … but gloating about a Labor clean-sweep of all five Tasmanian electorates is gone”. This is roundabout way of saying that Braddon is still in play, although the Liberals suffered a blow there this week when the government was forced to delay its much-touted Mersey Hospital takeover.

• There has been a spike in chatter lately about the possibility of the Liberals losing their ACT Senate seat, following recent Morgan results showing the party’s vote at a parlous 24 per cent. With 33 per cent needed to secure a seat, that would turn the second seat into a contest between Labor and the Greens. As territory Senators’ terms are tied to the House, this would mean the Coalition would lose its Senate majority immediately, and not with the changeover of state Senators in the middle of next year.

• Shame on me for not yet having linked to Peter Tucker’s self-explanatory Tasmanian Politics website. Go look.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

328 comments on “D-day minus 20”

Comments Page 3 of 7
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  1. I thought the UK tabloids had no pretence at being newspapers, as such; i.e., in the sense that they do ‘news’. As opposed to sanctimony, titilation, spite and spleen.

  2. As pointed out on Insiders the “no offence” line is perfectly pitched. Especially compared to the spitefull LIb ad. As Laurie Oakes wrote a couple weeks ago, the electorate has warmed to the “nice” Rudd.

  3. Brissyrod, another dream of Glens we will see more of in coming weeks is people hugging Howard slapping him on the back and saying good luck for your coming retirement.

  4. Speaking of Bennelong, I read the following assertion some time ago but have never seen it confirmed or denied:

    If the Coalition won the election but Howard lost his seat, there is some obscure provision in Australia’s electoral laws that allows Howard to bat on as PM, if he obtains the consent of his party, even though he doesn’t have a seat in Parliament.

    Sounds absurd, and it’s hard to imagine the likes of Costello and Turnbull, contemplating this but when I read the original assertion (sorry can’t remember where) it was made with some authority.

  6. It is never that close in federal elections as it is in state and council due to the size of the electorates. But in saying that and trivia question for the day, what is the smallest margin that won a seat in Australian history?

  7. BrissyRod – yes, a bit of a nightmare, but a double edged one. It’d mean the libs would have to do what Howard wanted, since he’s quite spiteful enough to resign if they do something he doesn’t like (like getting him to honour his ‘transition’ promise).

  8. Rudd responds to Howard’s “dynamite”

    Mr Rudd said the ABC interview to which the prime minister referred was a second-hand comment about Tasmania’s Tamar Valley timber mill.

    “(This) is about a report of a report of a report concerning the paper mill down in Tasmania,” he said.

    He described Mr Howard’s comments as “classic … desperation politics”.

    Mr Howard will do anything and say anything in order to hold on to political power, Mr Rudd said.

    “… The Liberals, in a previous generation, were running a campaign of reds under the bed.

    “Now it’s greens under the bed, some secret green agenda. For goodness sake.”

  10. Interesting. Thanks Chris C. I don’t suppose that would be relevant then since it would only really apply if a minister who lost his seat was going to be parachuted into a safe one in a byelection.

  11. Flash, you don’t have to be in the Parliament to be a member of the Executive Council, which is the constituional advice forum for the Gov-Gen, but the convention is that you have to be in the HoR to be PM, and I can’t see anyone bending over backwards to let Howard bat on. On either side!

  12. Howard said Work Choices was in the last terms policy documents which he just re-read. I challenge him or anyone else to produce this document.

  16. Centaur: from my website

    In terms of numbers of votes, the closest result in a House of
    Representatives contest was 1 vote (13,569 to 13,568), when Edwin
    Kirby (Nationalist) defeated Charles McGrath (ALP) in Ballarat
    (Vic) in 1919. The result was declared void in 1920.

    In 1903 Robert Blackwood (FT) defeated John Chanter (Prot) in
    Riverina (NSW) by 5 votes (4,341 to 4,336). This result was also
    declared void.

    The closest result allowed to stand was 7 votes (13,162 to 13,155),
    when John Lynch (ALP), defeated Hon Alfred Conroy (Lib) in Werriwa
    (NSW) in 1914.

    In terms of percentages of the vote, the closest result was Kirby’s
    voided win in Ballarat in 1919: he polled 50.002% of the vote. The
    closest result allowed to stand was that in the Griffith (Qld) by-
    election of 1939, when William Conelan (ALP) defeated Peter McCowan
    (UAP), after preferences, with 50.007% of the vote.

    The closest winning margin in recent times has been 50.011%, polled
    by Ian Viner (Liberal) in Stirling (WA) in 1974 and by Christine
    Gallus (Liberal) in Hawker (SA) in 1990.

  19. Is suspect you’re right about the LIb money keeping the Bennelong odds up, Ashley.

    Could you imagine Howard going into the last week favourite to lose his seat??

    Try this “jumble word game”: Nail, Last, Coffin, In The

  20. Prediction: Maxine McKew will sink or swim based on the final week’s campaigning. If there is some kind of momentum on the Coalition side, Howard could get up on the back of that, but if there is a continuing sense of the inevitability of a Labor win then many of the undecided Bennelong voters will just think: what the heck.

  23. I suspect Howard would lose quite a few votes in Bennelong if more people realised he is planning to resign if the Libs lose government, but he holds Bennelong. He once again refused to admit it on Insiders, but neither would he deny it (so guess which is true).

    Anyone living in Bennelong who can confirm whether Labor is trying to inform people of this and make a big deal out of it?

  26. I was interested by Mega George’s final comment on Insiders re. the Haneef affair and Kevin Andrews. I wonder if there are further revelations in the offing from News Ltd, who have continuted to give this issue prominence. Would be good to see him put under pressure on his role this week, though finding him might be a challenge… I also wonder what is making them maintain the rage on this particular issue given its obvious negative for the LNP.

  27. CL de Footscray,

    Not quite right. Every member of the Executive Council is, I believe, by definition a Minister of State. Under the Constitution, each and every Minister of State MUST be a member of either House of Parliament. Under convention, yes, a PM must be a MHR. The only exception was John Gorton, who became PM while still a Senator after the death of Harold Holt. He stood in Holt’s now-vacant seat and won, thus avoiding the constitutional crisis.

  28. Re mine at 11.19 SportsBet were at $2.45 this morning. They only give you 20% free bet of the amount you deposit, if that is over $300.00 ie $60 for depositing $300. Sporting Bet give you $100 free for depositing $30. So to repeat myself:

    Can I suggest a project. Bet your $30 however you like, but put your free $100 on Maxine. I have done this and it felt good! Let’s see if we can get Maxine below $2.00! Tell your friends, pass it on, letterbox, let’s have a Maxine tsunami.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  29. Paisano,

    I was a teacher and am a suppporter of the ALP. If teachers are badly treated by the ALP, I don’t allow my support for it to silence me. Journalists, with a few exceptions, are journalists first. If a story hurts the government, a pro-government newspaper will still run it.

  32. The Andrews stuff-up (I apologise for the tautology), the SMH relevations about the horse-flu, and the interest rate give Howard more than enough reason to stay the course on the “risky Labor” line. He knows as soon as he campaigns on his government’s performance he’s in trouble – he’ll either look as though he’s stuck in the past, or he’ll be spending every second dodging history.

  33. Chris C, here’s the quote from Wiki, from the “Yes Minister” series:

    Hacker: Don’t tell me about the press. I know exactly who reads the papers:

    The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country; The Times is read by people who actually do run the country; the Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; the Financial Times is read by people who own the country; The Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by another country; and The Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it is.

    Sir Humphrey: Prime Minister, what about the people who read The Sun?

    Bernard: Sun readers don’t care who runs the country, as long as she’s got big tits.

  35. Bushfire Bill notes, re Woolley “The Insiders said they had audio, but not audio of the actually woolley-Garret discussion, only audi of Woolley recounting that discussion: the same nature of audio that they have of Price’s recounting. This is desperate stuff….”

    Desperate Indeed. The cops used to regularly attempt to use such “evidence” before sound and video recording of suspect interviews became mandatory.

    It used to be known as a “Verbal”, as in “he made a verbal confession, Your Honour”.

    The Courts were usually pretty wary of such “evidence”, normally according it the value of the paper it was written-on.

    I see Howard & Co still prefer the old ways.

  36. In the 1968 South Australian election, Labor deputy premier Des Corcoran defeated his Liberal opponent Martin Cameron by one vote. This made the state of the parties: 19 ALP, 19 LCL, 1 Independent. The Independent, Tom Stott, backed the LCL and Steele Hall deposed Don Dunstan as premier.

    An interesting feature of the count was the revelation that the Millicent returning officer, W. D. Behenna, had breached protocol by voting. Cameron led by two votes with three postal votes to be counted. The first two of these went to Corcoran and it was thought that the final vote might be informal as it had been posted to the wrong district originally. A tie would have put Behenna in the position of casting the deciding vote – even though he had already voted. However, the last vote was formal for Corcoran and had held the seat.

    A court of disputed returns ordered a new election for Millicent and Corcoran won by 430 votes.

    In the orginal election there were three candidates – ALP, LCL and DLP. Cameron still maintains he was beaten by his aunt, who declared: “I gave you three votes, Martin.” That is, she wrote a three against his name, placing him last.

    Corcoran later moved to a city seat and briefly became SA premier. Cameron was later a Liberal senator and then Liberal leader in the Legislative Council.

  40. Flash said:

    “…if there is a continuing sense of the inevitability of a Labor win then many of the undecided Bennelong voters will just think: what the heck.”

    And if there is a continuing sense of the inevitability of a Howard loss in Bennelong, then a goodly proportion of the undecided voters in the electorate at large will just think: what the heck… anything but Costello.

  41. Phil Robins, a very good question. There is nothing at all at the DLP website about the elections and emails to the secretary are unanswered. They’re a bit Olde Worlde the DLP. This is the first time since 1975 that the DLP has run Senate tickets outside Victoria.

  42. Without wanting to speak ill of departed, why is Charmaine Dragun’s story being given such priority in the Sydney Daily Telegraph? Readers’ clips, “why she was loved so much”, “‘My story of Sydney’, by Charmaine” etc. etc.

    How does a 29 year old newsreader reading the Perth news from a Sydney studio become so “loved”, in Sydney as well as Perth?

  43. Peter,
    Thnask for the full quote.

    Phil,

    I expect that the DLP will preference Family First in the Senate and that it will put the Liberals ahead of the Greens. I think it will preference pro-life ALP candidates ahead of pro-abortion Liberals. I also think that its candidates outside of Victoria will poll less than one per cent.

  44. Okay then. Couple of things:

    – No idea what those Morgan posts were doing there. Now corrected.

    – My “paged comments” plugin doesn’t work with the new version of WordPress. Better go find a new one.

    – Apologies to those whose comments were held up in moderation. They’re out now.

  45. Samuel K, 14 seats should be enough to win the ALP government. If Windsor supports them Katter will be forced to, or to force another election.

    Let It End, all people that help out at party stalls say they’re surprised by the crowd’s reception (regardless of what party they’re from).

  46. Um, other than lifting the exemption from unfair dismissal from companies under 10 to companies under 100 employees, I think that the Liberal IR package brought in is pretty much identical to the policy the Libs took to the last election. I distinctly remember them talking about it.

    Say what you will about how crap is WorkChoices, but it was out there before the 2004 election. Voters and the media were just too lazy to look.

  47. Ironically, the Howard interview on Insiders actually served to enhance Garrett’s appeal rather than hinder it as a result of the Friday mishap. Howard alluded to the point that Garrett is a radical and has shown his true colours. In my opinion, many of the less astute have been turned off by the reported about-face of Garrett on a number of environmental issues throughout this year, accusing him of selling out. Friday’s gaffe, if anything, will help to bring back some of those turned off, with the notion that the old Garrett is alive and well. Howard thinks it’s a negative, but like most of his perspective, he may well be mis-reading the electorate again.

  48. Letitend, you need to be careful with that kind of subjective impression of popular opinion. If you took a bunch of Liberal cards and went out to Inala, you’d find lots of friendly people, too. That doesn’t mean the Libs are going to win Oxley. The major parties have supporters everywhere, and they will rally around their candidates during campaigns. Sometimes the fervour of the faithful is in inverse proportion to the fortunes of their party. The biggest and most enthusiastic crowds Labor has ever drawn were during the 1975 campaign, where Whitlam was virtually deified by the crowds, but was still thrashed come election day.

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