Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 4
|
54 | 46 | 45 | 42 | |
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
@549
Nuff said.
Am I the only one who thinks that the “authorised by B Loughnane Liberal Party Canberra” voiceover man has a scary, paternalistic voice? It’s a turn-off.
Not sure Gerr, maybe its just the election being less than 3 weeks away. No reason really.
Gerr @550 – good question. Not like either party had a great week last week.
May be because this year, whenever there’s beena coalition bounce, it’s bounced back straight away.
Also, I think we were all pretty happy about Galaxy today.
3 weeks 3 weeks 3 weeks…I remember in 1983 waking up the day after and thinking that the birds should sound sweeter and the sun shinier….
For mine, this one is for PJK (the real one)….
Enough bluster, there’s still 3 weeks.
For those talking about the free $100 on sporting bet just remember you don’t get to claim the winnings. The way it works (as far as I know) is that you are allowed to re-invest the winnings from that $100. Say you bet $100 on Maxine @ $2.85 you get $185 credit WHEN she wins (sporting bet gets their free $100 back). With your $185 for could then bet it on a sure thing i.e Man Utd v. Derby and actually claim the winnings from that.
55-45 newspoll.
it’s getting monotonous hey….
3 weeks to go.
Gerr
I am just going on my gut feeling, each time Newspoll has showed “The Narrowing” it bounces back.
Morgan moved to ALP as did Galaxy. Newspoll tends to exagerate trends.
Gerr,
It is actually 456 hours and a few minutes. But who’s counting?
Re Shanahan, I’m still really pissed with the way be manipulated the Newspoll figures on Saturday. Showing the predicted minus MOE in Lib favour as best case and pretending that the predicted result was the Libs worst case was truly disgraceful. By not including analysis of the predicted plus MOE he totally misrepresented the poll. Of course, his blog did not post my blog telling him this. What else can be done? Media Watch? Complaint to the Press Council with the findings sent on to Media Watch?
Geez – with the polls consistently showing around 55/45 all year, this blog generates a frenzy of activity with any minor fluctuation up or down. I’d hate to think about PB bandwidth problems if published polls had been running at 50/50!!
@560 Dio
We can use this forum to lampoon him until he starts to cry…or goes on the biggest loser – and wins – but not for the usual reasons….and cause he didled with the MOE of the televotes. And actually cause he fits the job description to a t.
If Shanahan did not exist, Murdoch would have to invent him.
Diogenes @ 560:
I think they sell voodoo dolls of him now, so popular has he become.
Hopefully from here on we have no national disaster ‘events’ aka Tampa or more attempted Haneefs. Howard has taken Australian politics low enough – I hope he doesn’t take it any lower.
Nexus 6
i just re-read the conditions at sportingbet – once maxine wins there appears to be NO need to bet again before withdrawal of your winnings
@546 Kina
“Howard has taken Australian politics low enough – I hope he doesn’t take it any lower.”
Why does a little voice inside me say ‘you aint seen nothin yet’?
[Hopefully from here on we have no national disaster ‘events’ aka Tampa or more attempted Haneefs. Howard has taken Australian politics low enough – I hope he doesn’t take it any lower.]
Of course they’re going to try something shocking.
Hey, u all probably know but the betting market narrowed somewhat furthur today to 1.32 to 3.35. Although Newspoll should be good, dont be too shocked if it moves to the govt
565. Here’s the sportingbet condition:
Prior to any withdrawal, both the deposit and any bonus funds accrued via Free Bets must be turned over at least once (1x).
The comments action is now moving elsewhere – all is explained here.
Check out the spoof new Liberal Party Ad at ‘Road to surfdom’. Very funny.
Rather disappointed that Rudd’s homeless announcement didn’t get much publicity on Channel 9 at 6.00pm, nor 10 at 5.00pm from memory
“Community Services Minister Mal Brough has condemned Labor’s new pledge to tackle homelessness, saying it would fail to make a dent in addressing the problem.”
What’s your answer Mal? Everyone lives with a social worker? 🙁
ruawake @ 509, i suspect a newspoll “widening” will be shannered as a ‘negative narrowing’
nexus yes – the free bet turnover is the maxine bet
Judy wrote:
I assume you mean the one now driving a gopher after a drink drive conviction. He wasn’t the one, though it sounds like he could have been.
Hmmm. Isn’t it interesting how the strongest advocates of war are those who’ve avoided being in one. I don’t remember seeing him in Vietnam. Or JWH, for that matter though he may have the excuse of his deafness.
Me too, until pushed too far. Which is why the one I crossed paths with is no longer in the media. Even ‘faux’ citizens can have powerful friends!
I should add that I was polite during the exchange because I had assumed the wider implications of creating two classes of citizens hadn’t been thought through. It wasn’t until the “So what” response that I realised I was dealing with xenophobia. I got kicked off before I could say more.
First ever Melvourne Cup parade without horses thanks to rattus stuffy upius.
Will be first ever major sporting event that said Rattus has deliberatley stayed away from, what happened to man of steel, frightened by the reaction he might get from the crowd.
Only rabbitts in this campaign are the scared liitle liberal bunnies ducking in and out of burrows as they avoid the media amd anything with the word liberal on it.
William – that Crikey thing is a bit weird … I’m sure you know your own business well but …
Predictions on Shanahan Newspoll Headings:
Howard makes spectacular comeback, now only 10 points behind Labor
Interest Rate fears fail to dent Coalition vote
Labor Leader at highest disapproval in 7 months
Howard surges on Preferred PM
Labor lead flatlines on interest rate fears
The Narrowing continues(Now only 10% gap)
Rate Rise not a worry for voters, Howards approval unchanged
Coalition closes in on Labor, up 1%
otiose, just sayin’ because the bloke I work with signed up during the World Cup and won from the bonus but couldn’t withdraw it – he had to re-invest it. From that I’d assume the bonus is what you accrue when Maxine wins, not the hundred you get for free – so the bonus is the $185 “profit”.
I could well be wrong but going in his experience I suspect not.
Whack your winnings from Maxine on the CFMEU Canberra Raiders to win the NRL Premiership. 🙂
nexus6
condition 6 from sportingbet
“Prior to any withdrawal, both the deposit and any bonus funds accrued via Free Bets must be turned over at least once (1x).”
this isn’t blinding obvious but my son who works at a sports betting site assures me that the maxine win clears the funds for withdrawal 😉
Otiose – I’m glad you said that. I’m really looking forward to free money … I’m not going to win anything by betting my $30 on the ALP to form government (well, @$1.33 I’ll win about $10) but the $260 for Max is what I’m really hanging out for!
OK…..though I hope I don’t win mine (I put the $100 on the coalition @ $3.30 to soften the blow of a loss). My $30 signup went on Maxine.
Maxine wins, coalition loses = very happy, slightly richer
Maxin loses, coalition loses = still very happy
Maxine wins, coalition loses = a little sad, a good deal richer
Maxine loses, coalition wins = it could be worse. Australia’s screwed but I’m better off – I’ll feel just like a good little Lib.
Hell, I loved this little bit in this article from Forbes.
{As the six-week campaign passes the half-way mark, doubts about Howard’s personal honesty have arisen in his own marginal Sydney seat of Bennelong, with a poll released Monday showing he has been unable to shed his ‘lying rodent’ nickname.
A poll of 76 Bennelong voters by The Australian newspaper found that many had qualms about Howard’s truthfulness after his 11 years in the top job.
‘Several respondents referred to Mr. Howard as a lying rodent,’ the paper said, in reference to the nickname reportedly given to the prime minister by one of his senators in 2001.}
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/11/04/afx4298259.html
Any inside word on whether newspoll will get a leak at 7:30?
My prediciton is the election is finely balanced. Because for some dopey reason newspoll gets the most attention in the media (despite it’s bizarre movements), if the poll coumes out 54% it may just kill off the Libs. It would mean only 2 Tuesday newspolls to go, and it’s getting damn close to time running out.
Newspolls are rarely leaked at 7.30….god im looking forward to that and lateline tonite.
What’s with all the ‘looking down your noses’ at us social workers going on earlier here? I doubt very much that those doing it, could hack what myself and my colleagues in mental health do, day in , day out. You try being on call 24/7, responding professionally, humanely and as helpfully as possible to the sad, the mad and the bad.
Onya, Mayo, good for you.
Newspoll- 58 The Obliterators, 42 The Losers.
Think the Galaxy result pretty much what I expected.
NBN in Newcastle is awash with Bob Baldwin ads:
A bevy of local “identities” are trotted out to support Bob.
The thrust is he’s a “good bloke” and he works “locally”. the pitch is “re-elect Bob”.
There is zero, repeat zero, (including in the acknowledgements at the end) mention of the Liberal party.
Rudd’s policy on reducing homelessness got a gurnsey on the ABC news. Please note, Glen, people with mental health problems vote. Their families and connections vote.
I think if newspoll is ever going to be 53-47 it’ll be tonight.
The polling would have started on Friday night -so the Garrett thing may hav had some resonance.
barney
Patterson is in the bag, don’t worry. 🙂
what’s with the new thread? william’s going to crikey????
William must have his reasons – be fair. But it would be sad if PB and PC end up hosted by big business.
But hay these guys have got to make a quid – maybe Bill Bowe could replace Shanahananan at the Oz. 😉
7:30 had nothing new – just another mention of Galaxy.
And please more sightings of Vale on a skateboard. That must be worth 1000 under 21 years votes for the ALP every time.
53/47 for Newspoll to bring Howard within an angstrom of victory
Well I don’t know about anyone else but I’ve already exhausted my free ticket on crikey in a 6 month period – there you go – Thanks William anyway for the most informative blog I’ve ever read – Byeeeee
Nostrils
Labor can win the election with 49.7% of the TPP vote. 😛
cb : Just enter your name and email to make a comment as usual on the new site, sign-up doesn’t seem to be required. Failing that set up a new email (Hotmail or the like) so you can register.
CB, that might not be an issue, as you can see here. If it is, I’ll inquire to see if something can be done about it.