Galaxy: 54-46

Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 4
 54 46 45 42
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46”

Comments Page 2 of 14
1 2 3 … 14

  1. Glen, I must say I admire your loyalty and persistence even in the face of adversity. I don’t know how you find the inspiration to come on here and cop all this carry on. If our positions were reversed I don’t think you’d find me here.

  3. [What will be fascinating will be to see what spin the Govt tries to put on the interest rate rise (assuming it happens). They’ll have something ready.]

    Howard was at his most desperate on Insiders claiming that it is IMPOSSIBLE to curb inflation, but that the government would be better at it than Labor.

    His inflation combating policies this year haven’t worked very well…

  4. Hey if its disaster and defeat id rather go down fighting with a smile on my face anyway if worse comes to worse and we have KR for 6-9 years meh you’ve got to deal with it and hopefully the sky won’t fall in, but with Rooster as Treasurer uggggh!.

    Nevertheless you guys it aint over till its over, its almost over but its not over just yet. It is fair to say if the polls are like this in the second last week into the election ill be checking the emergency drill sheet so i know where the life boats are just in case i need to get off SS Howie. But i still wont concede we’ve lost it just yet. Still im hoping Newspoll bucks the trend and records something from Garrett-gate, if not im pinning my hopes on a brilliant child care or housing policy.

  5. Not stating a distrust for Galaxy, just noting the disparity in the primary figures. They do come up with similar TPP to the others though.

  6. The national vote down, well this isn’t hard to believe considering the apparent swing to the ALP in Queensland and northern NSW

  7. [Not stating a distrust for Galaxy, just noting the disparity in the primary figures. They do come up with similar TPP to the others though.]

    Well, the cool thing is on election day we finally get to find out which poll company was most accurate.

  8. Seriously though, there were some comments by Possum backed up by some real maths that suggested Galaxy is getting the primary about right but underestimating the 2PP.

    Possum, if you’re here.. what was it you said?

  12. Hopefully, on recent figures (without the soft ALP bs) Morgan. Nothing like annihilation to put a smile on ya face. But on current figures, im not picky.

  13. [Seriously though, there were some comments by Possum backed up by some real maths that suggested Galaxy is getting the primary about right but underestimating the 2PP.

    Possum, if you’re here.. what was it you said?]

    Does Galaxy use the distribution from last election? Or do they ask?

  15. Galaxy have been mean on the Labor primary all year in comparison to Newspoll and AC Neilsen. 54/46 for Galaxy is probably 55/45 otherwise.

    In other words basically little change since the begining of the campaign.

    There is still a chance then that Rudd could ‘win’ this campaign and pinch a little extra.

  16. LaborVoter (41) I was simply stating a fact. Galaxy HAS been understating the Labor primary vote in relation to the other major polls since June. Nielsen, Newspoll and Morgan have all had it at 47 – 49%, while except for one month at 47% Galaxy have had it at 44-46%. With the evidence we have seen of push polling from Galaxy in a number of its polls, I know which ones I would have more confidence in.

  18. Well Gary i must say i find it a bit of a downer that my comrades in arms Nostro and Steven Kaye hardly pop up unless we peg back some ground in the polls. But if i didnt post anything eventually you’d be attacking each other, this way you have a Tory punching bag to stop you from attacking LTEP and Adam for some of their views lol.

    Ah BMWofVictoria hopefully that crazy post was lost, but my frustration was warranted how would you feel if you’d written a paper and then the next day someone copied 90% of it and got a higher mark than you, you’d go ballistic like Deputy Dawg and I did lol.

  21. Yes Glen, you are a very entertaining sack to kick. Its like cyber psychiatry, taking out all my pent up grievances on a supporter of the great divider.

  23. Blacklight. In January I was a fervent Chartist, annual elections and all that. Now I am leaning towards 4 year fixed terms. Why? We all know why!

  25. So tomorrow it’s gangbusters over this poll, Tuesday The Cup, Wednesday rates rise, Thursday and Friday rates fallout, and then El Rodente’s reign will enter its last two weeks.

    But Guy Fawkes came early today, bearing not a Big Bang but a Galaxy.

  26. Ole Shana’s said ALP primary was steady but it actually rose 1 point to 45. Galaxy always has the lowest ALP primary compared to ALL other polls, including it’s own marginals.

  27. The SMH is reporting another cat out of the bag story. This time the shoe is on the other foot.

    “The ABC’s Peter Cundall has revealed Mr Turnbull told him he hated the pulp mill he approved for Tasmania’s Tamar Valley.”

    I wonder if this will play out in the same MSM and Liberal hyperventilation plus sky will fall in scenario as Janet’s from the GG did with her last best weapon for Libs, the G Force Gaffe.

    Is Turnbull a turncoat for his love of the Kyoto protocol? Is the reality that workchoices will be ditched and Kyoto will be signed but only after an election win, in an about face breaking all Lib promises? You can’t trust those Libs. They are just pretending not to copy ALP policies. Vote Hanson to be safe!

  29. I think Shana has jumped ship. At the very least he is manning the lifeboats.
    “But given that voters suggest they could change their mind either way, it is unlikely the Coalition can capture a majority of the undecided voters.”

  32. Shanahan has an exclusive:

    “Coalition’s seat-by-seat campaign
    Dennis Shanahan, Political editor THE Howard”

    Yes, Shanahan proposes that this election will be won or lost in “seats”.

  34. [“The ABC’s Peter Cundall has revealed Mr Turnbull told him he hated the pulp mill he approved for Tasmania’s Tamar Valley.”

    I wonder if this will play out in the same MSM and Liberal hyperventilation plus sky will fall in scenario as Janet’s from the GG did with her last best weapon for Libs, the G Force Gaffe.]

    I doubt it. The media made a much bigger deal over Garrett’s comments than the revelation that Turnbull wanted Kyoto ratified.

  37. Shanahan calls it seat by seat strategy.

    I call it corrupt and morally dishonest pork barrelling.

    The whole of Australian is cheapened by Howard’s political tactics.

  38. [Labor is committed to using $2.7 billion of the Telstra shares being held in the Future Fund to create a broadband network, opposition finance spokesman Lindsay Tanner says.

    Mr Tanner says Labor is also committed to having the Future Fund at arms length from government.

    “We have made a single commitment to use $2.7 billion worth of those Telstra shares, to shift that amount from one telecommunication investment to another in order to ensure that we get world class broadband in this country,” Mr Tanner told Sky News]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Telstra-shares-to-build-broadband-Labor/2007/11/04/1194117868190.html

  40. Frank 86

    Maxine: My Goodness…No wonder Howard is hard of hearing. Have you seen the 30 year old wax in Howard’s ears?

  41. Peter Garrett on election night.

    “Compadres! It is imperative that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey to whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya!”

    “Oh, I mean we’ll implement all our policies”

  43. glen – u poor dear – that oh so nice liddle fool is gonna lose ‘cos he’s a caustic liddle a’orifice – glen – maaaaaaaaaaaaate – imbibe some compassion, think NOT just of yourself – try to feel how iraqi citizens might feel after another days (friendly) bombing – mate there’s a number of refugees on inhospitable lumps of coral outcrop you may like to negotiate wiv – but i sus you don’t acknowledge their existence. soooo sad

  46. Howard’s concession that inflation is unavoidable is perfect evidence that he is gone. We spent the 1980s trying to break inflation, and it was achieved so our economy could grown without becoming inflationary.

    The fact Howard has forgotten the last 20 years of Australian economic history suggests he knows he is gone.

  49. [Frank (86) Are you going to judge all contributions and award a prize?]

    No, just pasted it so we have a bit of light relief 🙂

  50. According to the poll, only 12% of respondents actually blame the Government for interest rate rises; most cited the booming economy and international factors. Therefore, a rate rise this week will play straight into the PM’s hands, because he won’t be blamed and will be able to point to the risks of electing Krudd and his motley band of cretins and thugs in these economically precarious times.

    And it will work.

    Another interesting finding from the poll – 38% of respondents were not locked behind either major party. Plenty of those will swing behind the Coalition on election day.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 14
1 2 3 … 14