Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.
UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:
This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.
@947 Glen
What part of Rudds horse won the Melbourne Cup while Howard the mental also ran, also ran, don’t you understand?
Actually he won twice:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/horseracing/rudds-a-winner-twicebr-over-with-efficient/2007/11/06/1194321851433.html
Luckily Rudd had a plan for the future, beyond the mining boom and invested in more infrastructure which, paid of handsomely – leaving Howard stuck in the past with his runner-up tag.
Hey Glen, don’t you sometimes wish there was a “delete my last post and blank everyone’s memory of it button” sometimes 😉
Err Rudd’s first choice was a loser Grog and Will, still spin this however you like, Maybe Better luck next time for KR if these polls keep heading the Tories way.
YAAAAWWWWNNN- more Joe Hockey union scare rubbish on Agenda.
Thank goodness that paragon of even-handedness David Speers is really doing his best to hose it down.
Not.
Glen…suck eggs and shut up
Yes, how to spin he backed the winner…tough one that. If only we had some pictures or film footage.
And the Libs first choice was Costello, yet Howard ran third and with Labor primary unshiftable on 47 Howard will run second in 20 days.
Anyone for a discussion other than “My party’s better than yours”?
[“I think he should have followed the tried and true path of me-tooism and backed my horse Mahler, at least it would still be in the race,” classic.]
Howard should stick to figuring out whether inflation is good or bad fior an economy.
Nice spin there Glen @ 954 – and now it looks like you’re getting a bit narcy over the polls. Mate, it’s the primary vote and it’s rock steady.
BTW, I’m having a huge party at my place on the 24th – you are more than welcome to attend, and don’t worry, I have friends who are Lib supporters. They’ll be seated at a special table on the night with plenty of tea and mints.
I have just had a look at the same poll at the same time for the last election. The only real difference is the primary vote for the Labor party. The Coalition primary vote is down by 1% and the TPP vote is down by 0.5% but the Labor primary vote is up by 6%. Does this mean that Labor has a strong TPP vote or just a very strong primary vote.
Glen, which polls are they?
Whose is looking forward to the IR debate tomorrow????
Hockey – Union Bosses Back in Town
Gillard – Restore fairness and balance to working families
How politics has descended into slogans what a shame oh well.
Hockey will be there 2 hours early lol!
By George what ever do you mean by that good sir?
Why should i want to delete my posts when William can do that if i get too out of line?
Julia and Hockey are on tomorrow at the press club.
Should be worth a watch. (12:30 I think)
Thanks Blair…so the only change from 1975 is the filling of casual senate vacancies.
Glen, you’re still invited to the 24th party bash, no matter what you say . I love you mate, Lib wars and all!
946 Mark Twain…
Yes, Mark, but as you know, even if Rupe isn’t so hands on, many of his acolytes in Australia can’t resist toeing what they assume the party line, much like (though I abhor the analogy), the trait among Nazi party members that Ian Kershaw outlined in the first volume of his Hitler biography – “working towards the fuehrer”. In other words, the Big Fella didn’t have to send out orders every day; the minions knew what to do. If we looked at the Australian examples, Akerman needs no instructions, but Bolt likes to see which way the wind is blowing and in that sense is a more reliable weathervane.
I want to see the worm but do not know if we will get it. We had the worm for Costello’s but not for Abbott’s.
OK OK… enough of this. I actually think Glen’s pretty brave continually logging on here.
Thanks all re the AEC website – I now know the best bet is to vote below the line.
Good-oh Julie. I still think you are better off emailing journalists personally rather than write a letter to the editor. Letters page editors usually look for something short and pithy, and despite appearances often try to have a nice balance. I don’t know what the Terror gets up to (I only read the Sunday version – for the laugh and the TV supplement – and my hair is already torn out before I get to the letters) but have noticed that they run a few email letters without surnames. I admit to having a problem with this: if your opinion is not worth putting your name to, then what worth is your opinion? (Hello blogosphere!)
Julia will wipe the floor with old shrek. She’s been pretty damned good for the last year or so, Rudd will probably hand over to her at some stage.
I wonder if Hockey will use his line ‘a handbag full of knives’ again tomorrow?
Dont let your kids watch…it’ll be murder….poor little big fat bloated Hockey…
[Hockey – Union Bosses Back in Town]
Hockey WAS a union boss!
I hope Gillard asks him why he thinks he should be paid $410,000 a year, while still recieving penalties for working weekends and public holidays.
I am always scared when start thinking the same as Glen!
Yep – I’m betting they’ll both already be in Canberra.
It will also be the first debate for a while that won’t include a Lib polciy announcement.
Not sure what will come out of this, other than one side loves workchoices and flexible work practices; and the other hates work choices and loves flexible fair work practices.
It will be a slogan fest.
#966 – correct.
“969
Julie Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
I want to see the worm but do not know if we will get it. We had the worm for Costello’s but not for Abbott’s.”
No, he did turn up eventually.
If the Libs are going to smear Rudd they need it to be big (and more or less true). I’ll believe it when I see it.
But I agree Howard may have some other rabbit ready, to be released from the hat on Friday. Gives the interest rate story a day to play out, but changes the focus for the weekend press.
All they have to do to throw Hockey is to put a big plate of meat pies on the table next to him.
George i think it is safe to say that this election is either going to be one of three things, a landslide for the ALP and close ALP victory or a close Coalition victory; as a Tory one would be wise not to put ones self in a position to get a verbal bashing on election night. Though i welcome your invitation i fear that in any of those three results i’d be running for cover soon and as fast as the swings come in from Antony’s laptop lol!
VoterBoy of Over the Water i think that Bolt has always been a Costello backer and that because Deputy Dawg didn’t get the top job when Andrew thought he should have it he’s gone off Howard considerably. Ackerman is a rock solid Tory but if there weren’t these ‘ignorant’ Tory journo’s we’d have nothing right of centre to read in the press, they are after all a very small minority in the press.
HaHa, Hewson bagging out Costello as unelectable
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22715957-29277,00.html
Hockey just on Agenda – Speers asked him why, if the govt’s IR system is better for the economy than Labor’s, they haven’t released the economic modelling they commissioned on the two systems in June.
Hockey did nothing but obfuscate (spelling?) the whole time, and said “the public is modelled out”. Even Speers had a crack – asked “Do you expect us to believe that if the modelling showed your system was better for the economy that you wouldn’t be showing it to us?”
Again, Uncle Buck had no answer.
Dire. He’s chopped liver for Gillard tomorrow. I rea;;y get the distinct impression he does not believe in what he is trying to sell with Work Choices. Does anyone else have that feeling as well?
On Big Joe, is he one of the more moderate libs in NSW these days? Not sure on which side of the dry/arid/moist/ slightly damp side of things he’s on.
Rupe doesn’t need to interfere in his papers as he maintains control by hiring a majority of right-wing people where he wants them.
Spot on Glen.
On the debate, it will be interesting to see if Gillard tries to bait Hockey.
Surely his “I’ll resign quote” was as dumb as it gets – it isn’t believable and stupidly means journos can ask Costello et al if they too will resign. (PC dodged it pretty well, but still had to dodge it).
It was obvious he went onto Sunrise determined to say it. You wonder if he consulted anyone.
#980. Ferdinand Mount is a Tory. Tom Wolfe is a Tory. William F Buckley is a Tory. Piers Akerman is not a Tory. He’s a spiteful populist blowhard.
Burgey Uncle Buck is a far better nickname than Shrek, absolutely classic form from you tonight.
All we can expect from the IR debate is alot of posturing about interest rates regardless if they go up or they stay steady, that will be the only spice for this debate except Uncle Buck having a crack at Kevin Reynolds for saying Gillard promised them stuff and the reneged lol!
Hey Glen, ok, we’re joking around, that’s cool. But I have a serious question for you. How do you support a party and a leader that has played the race card, vilified minority groups, lied about AWB (or at least should have known about it), lied about children overboard, supported a war that is neither bringing democracy to that region or helping democracy in general, and brought about terms “non-core promise” and “plausible deniability”.
See, if it was the Labor party, as a Labor supporter, I’d be screaming at the top of my lungs. It just seems that you guys support the party no matter what… the end justifies the means I guess.
[Dire. He’s chopped liver for Gillard tomorrow. I rea;;y get the distinct impression he does not believe in what he is trying to sell with Work Choices. Does anyone else have that feeling as well?]
Yes. But at the same time, he is a bit ideologically flakey. He says he was approached by a senior Labor figure in the early 1980s about joining Labor, but he had to go the uni library and read books on political theory before figuring out where he stood.
Uncle Buck. Now that is funny.
And then for a sequel we get Garrett and Turnbull on Thursday. Hoo boy, that will be fun.
Glen has set us a challenge – list the conservative journalists these days. I bet they match the so called lefties in number.
Turnbull v Garrett – the two richest pollies in Australia maybe?
it’ll be sound grabs at 10 paces, and don’t leave the script for love nor money, and advisers on each side of the stage with gags ready (and I don’t mean jokes).
Hope Lucy’s in the crowd with Mal – another 1 or 2% off the libs’ vote if she’s there, imo.
“979
red wombat Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
All they have to do to throw Hockey is to put a big plate of meat pies on the table next to him.”
You shouldn’t have said that – thanks to you my mouth is watering for a meat pie, preferably from Ferguson’s in Coburg (as frequented by R J L Hawke, no less). Which is doubly unfortunate for me, as I’m in London right now, and its getting close to lunch time.
VoterBoy, I reckon Akers and Blot (yeah, I meant that) are much further to the right than Our Rupe. What Rupe likes is a good old-fashioned newspaperman, like the glory that is Col Allan. His best headline by far: when Ken Lay of Enron infamy died Col ran a pic of a coffin on the cover and said: “Before they put Lay’s coffin in the ground, CHECK HE’S IN IT”. Pure genius.
Oh boy Garrett vs Turnbull
It’s going to be like watching Carlton play Melbourne. Loads of potential, but enough errors to make you cringe.
Glen you should try reading more, ALL THE MEDIA with the exception of the minor Monthly magazine is extreme right wing … extremely unquestioning … extremely hopeless … you are having fantasies of a dangerous sort if you think any MSM, including Howard’s own ABC has anything resembling a trace of left, left in it. There may be many left leaning journalists hanging about who are much smarter that the pap they produce but there is no MSM outlet in Australia that could even claim to be seriously centre.
[Glen has set us a challenge – list the conservative journalists these days. I bet they match the so called lefties in number.]
Here’s a start:
Poison Dwarf
Nancy Boy Bolt
Wannabe Coulterbrechtsen
Piece of Wankerman
SBS-Pearson
D.L.P. Frankenmiranda Devine
D.L.P. Henderson
D.L.P. Kelly
Steve “Can’t Take a Joke” Price
Greg “Wannabe Kissinger” Sheridan
ShowsOn, you made me spill my coffee! Brilliant!
Mark Twain @ 993 – You may well be right about Akers and Blot (good one), although I never underestimate Murdoch’s right-wing views – witness his bankrolling of the Weekly Standard. But I agree that he’s a conflicted character driven primarily by profit – anyone who can so seamlessly and openly combine pornography with so-called family values isn’t to be judged along strict partisan lines.
Uhlman?
mine! all mine!