Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.
UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:
This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.
Have we been provided with any hint of what this story/rumour in the Daily Telegraph on Friday might be. I can’t wait that long. I need to know now. Barring Rudd having a threesome with Bronwyn Bishop and Amanda Vanstone in the Great Hall of Parliament, I couldnt think there is much you could say about Rudd that would turn off voters.
DLP Kelly – Paul or Fran?
[DLP Kelly – Paul or Fran?]
Paul.
VoterBoy @ 985 – you have a lovely way with words.
MarkTwain – The Oz was quite a progressive rag when it first appeared; they used to do weird things like fly the metal plates around the country from the offices in Braddon (I think). That didn’t last long, Canberra weather being what it is. Red Ken Davidson used to work for them and I think won a Gold Walkley there. Then he (Rupe) decided Gough was hopeless, and shifted over to the libs, from whence he has not, much, returned. It is also the case that The Oz was always intended to be Rupe’s paper of record, the influential if small circulation national daily that the important people would read. Given that the Poll Bloggers seem to read it before anything else (incl moi) it seems still to be fulfilling that role.
And MarkTwain, if your take on the crikey rumour re Comrade Rudd is correct, I would be ecstatic. On my count the Crikey tips and rumours are crappola, and serve mostly to disorient.
Another stroll down memory lane – this one with slightly confusing modern parallels…
Age, 17 Nov 1972. “Whitlam – PM has lost touch with reality”.
“He has an image of the Australian voters as selfish, thoughtless, fear-ridden, class-ridden, hate-ridden.” (OK, I know who that refers to these days.)
“He is carting around Australia his auto-cue for his script.” (Ah, the time-honored Australian fear of new technology… McMahon copped it in 72, and Rudd copped it 25 years later.)
Good nicknames, Show’s On, but most of them aren’t journalists. Milne is, as are Kelly and Sheridan. The rest are what is known in the business as ‘conservative commentators’, or w#nkers in shorthand. The Price is Not Right is a just a tool.
PS, why do you people read them if you don’t like them?
There is currently a heavy schedule of National Security Hotline dog whistle ads on Hobart TV – most unethical!
I hate Crikey almost as much as I hate Howard & that is bad. The weasel turns my guts whenever I see him on TV. He is a despicable character, a blight in Australia’s history. I hope he fades away after the election. He would have to be the most hated PM ever. As Keating is to Liberals, Howard is to Labor. A miserable figure. All the supposed good things will be undone by work choices. He is pathetic. The Liberals are so desparate they will dig in the gutter.
We have semi literate , sense of humour Glen on duty tonight.
Must say I appreciate him more than Tabitha Glen or supercilious St.Glen or DeKayed Glen or even Dumb A*rsed Glen (you know, the daytime staff).
Good to know the Libs can afford to keep such a wide variety of halfwits on their payroll. Helps the unemployment situation.
VoterBoy of Over the Water @ 998
I have a question. If Newscorp is right-wing how do you explain the QLD Courier Mail and Tim Dunlop’s blog. I very much like Tim Dunlop but would never call him right-wing and the Courier Mail well better left unsaid.
George ok serious answer to a serious question.
I know one could come up with general instances, such as the Coalition’s immigration policy, where one could argue a position that Howard ‘used’ the race card or vilified minority groups. But for the life of me i can’t think of any specific time where Howard has vilified a minority group or used the ‘race card’ specifically so i think your argument rests on shaky ground.
I don’t accept the belief that Howard, Vaile and Downer ‘lied’ about AWB, that corporation was involved in dodgey dealings and they covered themselves up well. If there was any direct evidence that any of these three Minister’s knew or had evidence AWB were directly involved in kick backs and then did nothing about it then it’s news to me because even Kevin Rudd could not find any accept some foreign affairs cables that mentions the possibility of this happening. I’m not sure whether they should have known about it or whether DFAT should have known about it after all it was is their job.
On ‘children overboard’ we shall have to wait 30 years before we really know what happened and how much they knew and whether they did intentionally deceive the Australian people on this. Howard has maintained the position that while they believe that did occur, that the inconclusive nature of the video footage made it difficult to tell one way or the other.
George with great respect i will never support the assertion that Howard supported a war that is neither bringing democracy to that region or helping democracy in general. One could argue about WMDs but in that respect when MI5, CIA, NSA, FSB when they all said the same thing about WMDs its hard to criticise the politicians who acted on this information when it turned out the be false. But to argue that Saddam and the Taliban were better than the emergence of democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan i find that difficult to swallow. I know it’s difficult to restore democracy to these regions such a system is foreign to them but it is better than a dictatorship or a brutal theocracy.
We will only fail in Iraq and Afghanistan if we leave before they can defend themselves, if we leave before the job is done then we have failed and all will be for nothing but ‘cutting and running’ which plays directly into the Terrorists hands is the flavour of the day for progressives. And just to show i am not a hypocrite i am not happy that Bush or the West has not intervened in Zimbabwe for example, they should remove despots whenever possible.
I find your comments about Non-core promises amusing George because according to Peter Garrett MP the ALP also supports Non-core promises, another me-too from KR.
George I support the Liberal Party because they fit in best with my political beliefs they aren’t perfect and they stuff things up now and again i am honest about this. Still i have my disagreements with the Libs i have my own issues with the Howard Government, i have never liked Howard choosing Hollingsworth for GG that was the worst political decision he has ever made, i don’t like that the Tories have to be so closely aligned to Christians or religious groups as i am an atheist, i don’t support Abbott’s stance on abortion or his failure to push through RU486, i don’t support having Chinese observers to Australian military exercises, i am not happy they have not pushed harder for nuclear power (though i know of its political unpopularity), i am deeply pissed off that Howard didn’t keep the no disadvantage test with AWAs with Workchoices we’d be 53 to 47 now had he done this but nooooooo he had to leave it out then bring in a fairness test when the chips were down, god how stupid can you be, that would have shut up the unions and kept the focus on unfair dismissal.
So George i can disagree with Howard but i reckon since 1996 Australia is a better country than what he inherited off Hawke and Keating and for that i am not changing my vote to send a man with 1 years experience as a leader to the Lodge.
Sorry about it being so long but you wanted an honest answer so there you go.
Far too much written about the Rudd rumour tonight.
Here’s some more.
Crikey rumours – and in fact, most of the other stuff they write – are extremely unreliable.
Think about it. Who but Crikey would print a such a vague rumour without any hint as to what it was about? You would have to assume that, if the rumour was genuine, the person leaking to Crikey would know more than that the DT is going to print something nasty about Rudd. And you would assume that they would support their leak with this information. And if they did, Crikey wouldn’t hold back on publishing it.
So, can anyone call Crikey and get any rumour published without any supporting evidence at all? I think I’ll give them a ring tomorrow. Anyone like to suggest possible rumours?
Hmm, could THIS be the big Terrorgraph Story – ALP harbours Terrorists.
[PRIME Minister John Howard says he’s not surprised sacked Muslim spiritual leader Sheik Taj el-Dene Elhilaly has urged his followers to support Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
In a speech, Sheikh Hilaly accused Mr Howard, who he called the “number three player of the Bush deception team”, of destroying the Muslim community’s relationship with other Australians, The Australian newspaper reports.
“He’s never been a fan of mine and frankly, I’ve never been a fan of his,” Mr Howard told journalists in Epping in Sydney’s north-west today. ]
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22713292-5001021,00.html
Michael (931) I don’t know if anyone has answered your question about the senate preferences, but just in case they haven’t, electoral law requires that a full set of preferences be on display, or be made available upon request, wherever voting is taking place.
If you can’t locate them just ask the officer in charge.
Kate Fisher’s father is in fact John Howard.
I’d love to see your scrapbook one day, VoterBoy. And trawl a few heads like CL’s and Historic Election’s for other memories. I’m going to write the definitive history of the press in this country one day, and it will not at all be biased. Not in the effing slightest! Kevin-o-bloody-seven!
I do think our BillBowe Baggins is on the right track with his concentration on radio coverage of elections for his PhD, however. While newspapers feed the morning radio bulletins, radio is far more powerful in swaying opinions than newspapers can ever hope to be (although newspapers are far better at other things, particularly from an advertisers’ point of view, but that’s another topic entirely.)
LL is into Cameron Thompson
Geez, this is the gaffe election.
Glen,
Just one question.
Were you comfortable when Howard refused to admonish Pauline Hanson’s racist maiden speech?
Glen – this is for you.
[applause]
I really do like the evening shift Glen.
See what I mean?
1008 Shaboh, you are damn right… I have deep hatred for Howard, the mere mention of his name or the sight of his demented head instantly morphs me into an uncontrollable tourettes type rant. The sooner he is out of my life the better.
Alexander “fishnet stockings” Downer will be on Lateline. Hmmm that may be interesting.
Yes, that’s why her engagement to Jamie Packer had to be called off.
Damn, Downer is on LL. Oh well, at least I can go to bed early(ish)
Glen,
Good post. Don’t agree with a lot of what you wrote but good post.
Wihtout trying to sound patronising, I have a heap more respect for people when they put things the way you just did rather than spout glib on eliners and insults (we all do it, myself included).
Winston @ 1012 – if you’re a member you can click on the web site (not sure if you are a guest) andf tip something to them – it’s on the left side of the political home page on Crikey.
Oh well there goes Lateline, Downer is on it…lucky I ate dinner some time ago.
But I liked Tony’s intor, Labor pounces! on Lib backbencher Thompson’s stupid yet accurate remarks on Liberal SPIN.
Is it just me or are the comments developing into some absurdist drama? I’m not sure where 1015 came from, and 1020 doesn’t seem to make sense either…
In fact, this Cameron Thompson guy is just plain inarticulate. It came out sounding like a rate rise proved they were doing a good job but to be neutral about it, it’s not what he meant. Still, politically, it’s gold for Labor.
Ok then – here’s excerpts from the eve of poll editorial from the Australian, 1 December, 1972.
THE PARTY FOR THE TIMES.
“The reasons for voting for a change tomorrow have become even more apparent in the past week than they were before.
“While Mr McMahon has reverted to playing all the last moves in a desperate electioneering endgame, Mr Whitlam has gone on putting forward positive plans for the future of the country.
[…]
“Mr Whitlam’s programme has vision: he is talking about an Australia with a sense of pride and purpose, and energetic Australia which will take imaginative action to improve every facet of its national life and the well-being of its people.
“In contrast Mr McMahon offers a philosophy which has become noticeably tired – one based on vague and sometimes contradictory principles. Under Mr McMahon, Liberal government policy has degenerated into a series of ad hoc decisions, each one trying to balance the effect of the last.
[…]
“Certainly there must be an element of risk in voting the Labor Party into power after 2 years. But in view of his performance over the past 20 months, surely there would be more risk in returning Mr McMahon.
“Liberal policy is threadbare: its leadership is weary. Policy-less, devoid of effective leadership, it cannot offer us the kind of effective government a modern Australia requires. […]
“There comes a time when bold decisions are the most constructive. It has arrived.”
No the absurdist Drama will be published in a few hours, but the spell it like this ‘The Australian’.
Glen,
I’ll summarize what I said about nuclear power before.
It’s too expensive and will not compete with wind/solar/geothermal. I went to a lot of trouble to write that critique before. So I’d just like to know what you see as the facts of the matter.
Apart from the gee-whiz, why do you support nuclear power?
Dangerous I was answering Winstons question
“So, can anyone call Crikey and get any rumour published without any supporting evidence at all? I think I’ll give them a ring tomorrow. Anyone like to suggest possible rumours?”
Cameron Thompson is the embatled Liberal Member for Blair. He defeated Pauline Hanson in her tilt for Blair by finishing third on the primaries, got National Party and other minor preferences to rise to second place and then got ALP preferences to beat Hanson.
Are you really expecting brains from this guy?
So sad to hear about the loss of George Grljusich, and thanks for posting, Frank.
Even for us interstaters, George was a legend. In the last 30 years I have long abandoned an interest in boxing. But at Olympic and Commonwealth Games it was always a delight to listen to the boxing radio broadcasts of him and Benny Pike. They made a great comic team.
It has been a sad week, following on from the death of parliamentary legend Peter Andren.
VoterBoy, have you just leaked the editorial from the Oz on Nov 24, 2007? They might as well pinch it, then go off to the pub. Same diff.
“1010
Stephen Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
VoterBoy of Over the Water @ 998
I have a question. If Newscorp is right-wing how do you explain the QLD Courier Mail and Tim Dunlop’s blog. I very much like Tim Dunlop but would never call him right-wing and the Courier Mail well better left unsaid.”
There have always been a few lefties/centrists writing for Mudrock papers – Philip Adams is a classic example. But overall, the tenor is hard right-wing, and its pages tend to be open to the Akermans and Bolts of this world far more than the Fairfax papers have ever been.
And note the similar surname of the Jockey of the Melbourne Cup Winner Efficient – Michael Rodd .
Rudd backs it twice etc.
Good omen.
Hear Hear Dazzamack from Perth
I think he manipulates the truth to his advantage everytime. How can the weasel say an interest rate rise proves his Government is better at managing the economy better than Labor. I don’t get how people can believe this crap.
Oh dear, dolly.. the lips move but the rest of him is dead.
Blot, VoterBoy, Blot.
Christ, didn’t Tony give it to Lord Downer in his opening question! Right on, Tones!
Howard is crazy to say this.
[Prime Minister John Howard says Labor’s union links are stopping it supporting the Coalition’s election promise of 100 new technical colleges.
Labor leader Kevin Rudd says Australian Technical Colleges are a waste of money and Mr Howard should be supporting the TAFE system.
The Opposition has promised funding for trades training centres for high schools but Mr Howard says Mr Rudd is not interested in technical education.
“The 100 Australian Technical Colleges which we promise over the months ahead will not occur if there is a Labor government,” he said.
“The reason is that the unions don’t like Australian Technical Colleges because Australian Technical Colleges – horror of horrors – will actually offer amongst other things performance pay for teachers.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/06/2083540.htm?section=justin
Downer is sounding very Tabitha on LL.
If anyone is suffering insomnia, Downer is droning on on Lateline. Much better than sleeping tablets.
shaboh, there’s a Glen born every minute.
@1038
Dear Shaboh
And yet they do….
Glen, Howard has played race cards in subtle and not so subtle ways including but not limited to his Asian immigration position of the 80s, his support for Hanson, his disgraceful handling of reconcilliation (particularly the 97 speech), and his visible dismantling of multiculturalism policy and organs. These are just off the top of my head.
How can the great economic managers now say there is an economic crisis. The 2 together don’t make any sense.
1034 Don Wigan,
George Grljusich was a good commentator, but as a person he was a wanker (i wont say why but just ask his extended family). BTW He’s one less stinking Lib to vote for Howard on the 24th, so I can’t say I will shed a tear for him today.
Geln, thanks for taking the time to write a response, I appreciate it. Your answers are pretty much on par with those I have had from other Liberal supporters, some friends of mine (yes, I do have friends outside of Labor).
I’ll respond because I think you a) make some assumptions about what I wrote and b) you are questioning whether they are founded on fact. So here goes:
1. On the race issue, there are dozens of examples, let me go through some (and some are intertwined quite cleverly with terror): Haneef, muslims, asians (early on), most recently on Sudanese, accepting the policies and dog whistles of Pauline “fish-n-chips” Hanson, their immigration policy and the methods (detention) they have implemented it by.
2. On AWB. Glen, it has been reported by left and right media that there was no way for the enquiry to look into many of the Government handling of this affair, including what they knew and to what extent. I guess you have faith in that they didn’t know, I can’t believe a 300Million bribe at some a complex level was unknown by people within government
3. On children overboard. I remember quiet well (and I have the transcripts here) on how Peter Reith was telling us on radio (VT interviewing him) that there were kids being thrown overboard using a photo to “prove” this that showed nothing like that at all.
4. Iraq. Glen, I don’t know if you understand a whole lot about geopolitics, but Saddam Hussein, up until recently was supported by the United States. And this “war on terror” is more about long term strategic positioning against China than bringing “democracy” to the middle east. You might like to read about what Professor Robert O’Neill and others have to say about this topic.
Happy to continue the discussion.
Did Dolly just say “I don’t think we can win?”