EMRS: 59-41 to Labor in Tasmania

EMRS has published its third Tasmanian survey of federal voting intention covering 200 voters in each of the state’s five seats, following similar efforts in August and June. Labor’s statewide lead on two-party preferred has narrowed to 59-41 from 61-39 in August, following a straight 3 per cent swap between the major parties on the primary vote. There has been an impressive lift in the Greens vote from 11 per cent to 16 per cent after distribution of the undecided, though perhaps not quite enough to put them in contention for a second Senate seat. While electorate-level results with such small samples should always be treated with caution, they nonetheless make for interesting reading. From the crucial seats of Bass and Braddon, we have two-party results very much like those Newspoll gave us in the first week of the campaign. However, EMRS unlike Newspoll points to the big primary vote shift from Labor to the Greens which many anticipated after the bipartisan support for the Tamar Valley pulp mill, especially in Bass.

Bass (Liberal 2.6%) ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN
November 55 45 40 40 19
August 59 41 52 36 11
June 65 35 54 32 14

Braddon (Liberal 1.1%) ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN
November 52 48 46 46 9
August 54 46 47 44 9
June 64 36 60 36 3

Denison (Labor 13.3%) ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN
November 70 30 49 29 21
August 64 36 52 32 14
June 69 31 59 30 12

Franklin (Labor 7.6%) ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN
November 59 41 45 38 18
August 61 39 52 37 11
June 67 33 61 29 8

Lyons (Labor 3.7%) ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN
November 58 42 46 34 17
August 61 39 52 36 13
June 59 41 53 39 9

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

49 comments on “EMRS: 59-41 to Labor in Tasmania”

  6. Hmm.

    200 voter sample?

    What the MoE on that? 100%?

    Well I suppose it is still consistent with all other polling we’ve seen on Tassie.

    Though still I’m not yet ready to say too confidently 2 down, 14 to go.

  8. The Newspoll 19/10 had Braddon on 51. EMRS had Braddon at 54 in August, which was a big drop at that time after the Mersey pork-barrelling. 52 here suggests that it hit the bottom and has bounced. MOE is big though.

  9. That seems to imply swings to ALP of:
    Bass 7.6
    Braddon 3.3
    Denison 6.7
    Franklin 1.4
    Lyons 4.3
    which is all over the place. Does this make sense ? I think I can understand Braddon (mersey hospital) but Franklin ?? But then, I don’t know Tas.

  15. I agree with Ed the Pseph 52:48 is pretty much high water mark for the Libs in Braddon (or low for Labor). I’m originally from Tas (please no jokes I’ve heard them all). and my contacts and knowledge tell me that Howard’s Mersey intervention was more damaging than helpful in that it would have annoyed as many Burnie people as Devonport voters and I mean seriously annoyed in the way that is quite peculiar to Tassie politics. Also, I suspect the intervention would have even more annoyed people in Launceston where the 1st of the 3 ICU hospitals on this 100km stretch of coastline is based.

    The Tassie people had a very good health plan in place to maximise scarce resources and Howard has run in rough shod over this. The pulp mill approval has probably had a minor bounce in Braddon but that too is probably fading.

    House prices are also really starting to shoot up in this part of Tasmania. So barring a major rabbit I’m pretty confident about my bet on a clean-sweep.

  16. MOE is high for individual seats but with a sample of 1000 reasonable figures
    suggests approx 7% swing to labor (plus 2 seats to labor)
    senate 1 green 3 labor 2 libs ie 4/2
    good news

  17. Maybe Garrett’s ‘gaffe’ was to make sure that those ALP deserters to the Greens in Braddon and Bass preference back, having made their point. Pork seems to have been an acceptable diet for some of the jolly folk of Braddon, but not quite enough, evidently. Perhaps they don’t all want to earn the epithet of ‘best electorate that money could buy’. I’d imagine that the latest interest rate rise wouldn’t help matters. Bass looks to be one to pencil in for sure now.

  18. “Could the coalition hold braddon and bass?”

    Yes, but only under the Coalition Post Modern Mathematics where 48 and 45 are bigger numbers than 52 and 55.

  21. Just had a look at the betting on Bass & Braddon. They range from 1.17 to 1.33 for Labour depending on the agency, so they are regarded by the betting markets as pretty much certain ALP gains.

    I was thinking there are 12 Coalition seats that are absolutely certain ALP gains, and these two are on that list, so it would be comforting to see a bigger lead than these polls indicate, especially in Braddon. But if the swing gets big in Qld or NSW, Braddon might not matter.

    Interesting comments about Devonport vs. Burnie, although Devonport is the bigger town. But the administrative cock-ups about the hand-over of the Mersey to the Feds might dilute the impact of this piece of pork, even in Devonport.

  22. The poll shows that Bass is secure for Labor (and let me be the first to say “All your Bass belong to us”), and that while Braddon is close Labor is ahead. Given that the whole is Tasmania is waist-deep in Liberal pork that’s a pretty good result for Labor, and it’s hard to see what could tip it back to the Libs in the next 16 days.

  23. Kevin Rennie:

    Once you get over a population of 20,000 the MOE doesn’t change much. For a population size of 20,000, the MOE would be 6.89%, for 69,000 it is 6.92% and for 91,000 it is 6.92%

  24. Since June the Tory 2PP has gone up 12 points from 36 to 48, looks like Braddon could be held by Barker, good news for the Tories. Hehehe and you were expecting them to be easy pick ups.

  25. [Since June the Tory 2PP has gone up 12 points from 36 to 48, looks like Braddon could be held by Barker, good news for the Tories. Hehehe and you were expecting them to be easy pick ups.]

    They’re gone Glen, get over it, concentrate on some other seats.

  26. That says clean sweep, especially after that embarrassing joke Mersey hospital ‘policy’ just fell apart.

    Thats 14 seats on the mainland to go….

  29. “If the libs can make up 2% a day in Denison it could be close…”

    Lol. And if Howard had a time machine he could go back to the middle of last year and retire gracefully, avoiding the Brucing that’s coming.

  31. This is the moment in the movie where the bad guy is lying wounded on the ground and struggles to wriggle over to his gun. For a moment, just for a moment, it looks like he’ll recover and get there first, but then the good guy jumps on it and puts the business to bed.

  33. Hmm, also remember that’s 16% for the Greens in the HoR, I would expect Bob Brown to perform better in the Senate, but how much better?

    I’m not seriously contemplating Wilkie winning, a second Tasmanian senator is 8th in my order of likelihood of the Greens winning, in this order:

    1) Bob Brown – TAS
    2) Scott Ludlam – WA
    3) Richard di Natale – VIC
    4) Kerry Nettle – NSW
    5) Kerrie Tucker – ACT
    6) Sarah Hanson-Young – SA
    7) Larissa Waters – QLD
    8) Andrew Wilkie – TAS

  38. This is a rehash of the Newspolls from the past two weeks. It would appear that The Australian will be doing this every Thursday, i.e. merging the two most recent polls to produce state-level results from credible samples.

  40. I think summarizing this data it would suggest that Bass is in the bag for labor, Braddon is much closer, and the rest of the Tasmanian seats will be comfortably held by the ALP. This is to be expected, but one would think the slightly dirty smell coming out of the Mersey hospital arrangements should make enough of the undecideds vote for labor for Braddon to also fall.

  41. If the Senate primary votes pretty much correspond to the HOR primary votes, the Senate result will be 3/2/1 – ALP/Lib/Green, which removes the Coalition Senate majority.

  42. I think its nigh on impossible to see the coalition retain an absolute majority in the senate. Xenophon will probably win a seat off the libs in SA, and Liberals down one in tassie. Probably changing scenaios in other states as well.

  43. The Hanson factor in the upper house is a major worry to me.

    This could upset future plans…unless I get into bed with her and that would be my sacrifice for the nation.

    YUK!!!

  45. Guys, where will you all be on election night? I live in eastern suburbs of sydney but I am looking to go to an election party….anything in city, inner west, or in east?

  47. Bird,

    Yes that’s me and I do most of my blogging at Blogocracy these days.

    You guys must be scratching your heads concerning “the project” and all will be revealed after this election is over.

    I would like to say that this project will go a long way to solving our environmental problems and will set this nation up for many generations after completion. (fifty years)

    The sponsored web site is being built and the drafts of the logo are at Blogocracy, Midweek meltdown for opinion and selection as this is a people project and I invite you guys over there and I would greatly appreciate your opinion.

  48. The assumption that the Tasmanian Senate votes will correspond to the Reps results is not at all supported by recent Tasmanian figures:

    2004: Reps Libs 42.0 ALP 46.0 Senate Libs 46.1 ALP 33.6
    2001: Reps Libs 37.1 ALP 47.2 Senate Libs 38.8 ALP 36.8
    1998: Reps Libs 38.2 ALP 48.9 Senate Libs 34.7 ALP 41.6 (Harradine year)
    1996: Reps LNP 44.9 ALP 44.3 Senate LNP 43.5 ALP 39.0
    1993: Reps Lib 42.0 ALP 46.8 Senate Libs 36.8 ALP 42.6 (Harradine year)
    1990: Reps Lib 48.6 ALP 39.7 Senate Libs 44.1 ALP 41.3

    In 1996 and 1998 the Coalition did slightly better in the Senate than in the Reps compared to the ALP (in 1993 and 1990 it did worse). In 2001 and 2004 the difference between (Lib-ALP) in the Senate and (Lib-ALP) in the Reps was in double figures. In 2004 it exceeded a Senate quota!

    Probably the number of incumbents each party has in the Reps has a big impact on their Tasmanian Reps vote without affecting the Senate vote as much, but even so, it is not at all safe to assume that 42-35 in a Reps poll means 3-2-1 in the Senate. Anyone who takes three Tasmanian senate seats to the ALP for granted on the basis of any poll (unless it shows 70-15 🙂 ) is jumping the gun.

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