Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.
UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.
Watching 7 news, pro-Rudd coverage on the interest rate rise.
Ashley @ #90 profit from an unthinkable liberal victory, how disgusting, you must be closet liberal.
[What you are all forgetting is that now the economy will be front and centre for the rest of the campaign, ]
And you’re forgetting that the Coalition are economic dunces who think inflation is good, and interest rates rising even better.
Sean 84
What a surprise, a false rumour of a Labor scandal in a week the coalition knew it was in trouble 🙂
As for the Liberals new strategy, Labor should just take it head on: say that the Liberals are running a scare campaign about the safety of having them in charge if there are high interest rates precisely because they expect them to be high and have no strategy to fix teh problem. Liberal economic policy has been a failure. Their own pork-barreling has caused inflation. The best tactic for Labor now is to promise responsibility. Happily Swan has already realised this.
Another tactic to take with the Liberals: we have all seen what Howard has done to health, education and infrastructure spending when times are good. What would Howard do to them when times were tough and they needed to cut spending? The only alternative is to take back the tax cuts. None of us can really imagine them introducing any real reform to solve the problem.
All of this is completely over analysed.
Interest rates up = kick the government. It’s that simple.
Frankly, if Labor can’t turn this to their advantage, after what Howard said in 2004, then they don’t deserve to win.
Glen, did the chart show that interest rates fell under the last labor government 93-96 and have risen with this government?
ShowsOn i am afraid i have not seen any evidence that senior Coalition Ministers have said inflation was good, the general feeling is that alot of the inflation pressures are from factors outside our control like the drought and oil prices.
Even Glenn Stevens said Howie’s IR reform has stopped a wages blow out thus the Coalition has done everything it can with its policies to reduce rates but its not been enough especially considering the factors outside its control.
The question voters will say is Interest Rates are on the rise but can Labor with their inexperienced team and bad record on the economy make the situation better, and answer is no ShowsOn and that is why the incumbent should retain support.
Some of us know enough about the Libs dirty tricks playbook to know that these little games that amuse us all are actually engineered at Lib HQ.
The truth is that any “rush” to put money on the coalition is coming from – yep you guessed it – a coalition slush fund. Like most things they do in these dying days – its all about creating a perception – to keep the rusted on’s, rusted on. And if their agenda aligns with the bookies then they probably don’t even need to outlay too much.
Come to think of it their whole agenda is about perception – cause they don’t have anyone with the intellect to do anything else – having ceded all their real power to the el rodente circus. Just look at how quickly Costello’s crew fell into line.
But perception is not a very reliable or clever way to run a country – OK they have been doing it for a while now and obviously have become quite good at it – but eventually the punters smell a rat – and revolt.
Eventually even the GG will see the writing on the wall and try to ease themsleves back into the OZ mainstream. God knows what they will do with Dennis and the rest though. We do need to have a plan to deal with them post 24/11 – beyond slashing and burning these clowns. I would definately like to be a fly on the wall around the robust discussion between Kevin and Rupert on Monday 26th November.
106 Indeed it did Centre and that was what was so good about it. The Liberal Interest rate strategy is in tatters.
As always, the best coverage will be on the Chaser tonight. Garretts joke and Abbotts no show will figure prominently. Sadly, the boys won’t be able to include Costello’s disgraceful “Rising interest rate mean Ive done a good job” comment which for me is the *uck-up of the campaign and will go down in history as the worst double-speak on record.
This ‘trend’ is interesting as it puts the ALP still within the overall range that it has been in all year – 54-56% TPP.
If we compare with this time (in the election) three years ago, the difference is massive, with the Coalition still on target to lose – at this stage.
Of course, there is always the “Labor is almost always 2% overestimated in federal polls’ theory, which, if we take seriously, STILL has Labor winning close to my prediction of 79 seats.
😉
Didn’t see the new thread.
http://jmcdonald.org/opinion/?p=51
This should be posted everywhere, which refers to Kohler’s debunking of Howard’s interest rate lie. No not the one where he says the Liberals never said record lows. Nor the lie about him personally never mentioned record lows. But the lie about Liberals always having lower interest rates then Labor.
Interesting to look at the two camps today – Howard and Costello looking like they had just been hit by lightening – Rudd laughing and relaxed.
I can imagine the converstaion “Peter you said there would not be an interest rate rise in November – I knew I should have called the election last weekend”. “John we are skewered mate” 😉
Ruawake
I would have thought that Menzies would go before Higgins, especially if the incumbent reminds everyone who he is by actually campaigning.
Labor’s brand new attack ads on interest rates just on Channel 9!
Finally, Labor ads on Sydney TV!
Maybe commercial television is finally deserting the Rodent?
@ 5 Chris Says:
Julie Owens MP for Parramatta (a marginal) was at the corner of Federal Road and Prospect Hihghway most of today (Wednesday) in blusterand clod weather. As you can see at http://preview.tinyurl.com/3cox8a it’s a vacant lot adjacent to a very busy Highway and the road out of Centro Seven Hills. She had a couple of the Light on the Hill faithful for company. I wandered over and engaged the still attractive 50 year old in some light hearted banter. It seems that party HQ is not spending a razoo on her campaign and no current party heavyweights are joining with her on the hustings. She didn’t seem too fussed although she claimed that she was 2.5% behind after the redistribution and the issues with enrolments.
Connoisseurs of politics who have a moment or two spare on Saturday should come out to her campaign office in Best Road, Sevo (Prospect Hwy end) at around 12 noon when Hawkie will be there to perform the opening ceremony.
This should be a far jollier event than its equivalent in 2004 when the Latho launched the campaign for Greenway of the doomed Ed Husic in the old bank offices across the road from Jools’ place. This launch was notable for the photo that appeared in some papers of a lonely John Faulkner sitting on a chair morosely staring into space contemplating the sad fate ahead.
5
Chris Says:
I often read but don’t usually contribute, but does anyone else think that it’s time for Labor to follow through with the big guns? I’m getting nervous!
Or is the buffer so big not to matter?
If Labor can win without spending a swag of cash on ads, etc., or getting too dirty, then all the better. But my guess is they are just about to open up across most fronts. They are in the driving seat and can choose their tactics, a luxury the government does not have.
Why would people be throwing away there money on the coalition now that the interest rates have gone up? What is their thinking?
“its not been enough especially considering the factors outside its control.”
Then why promise to keep interest rates at record lows?
That is what the voters will remember.
Howard made them a promise he was never in a position to keep.
The voters will punish him for it.
[ShowsOn i am afraid i have not seen any evidence that senior Coalition Ministers have said inflation was good, ]
This means you should read more. Costello today very clearly said that inflation is an unavoidable consequence of economic growth.
This demonstrates once and for all how economically retarded he is.
We spent the 1980s trying to kill off the connection between inflation and growth, Costello has now given up and said what we tried to do in the 1980s was for nothing. He has just refuted the last 20 years of economic reform in Australia, and said it is all wrong.
Ergo, Costello is an economic dunce who should not be anywhere near our economy.
Labor’s interest rate hike ads are already in full swing. Anyone else seen them?
Yes, but where’s the graph?
I wish someone (Possum? RatesAnalyst?) could do up a graph and post it somewhere we could link to it. A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.
Dunno where you get the data, but presumably RatesAnalyst might.
While I doubt the intelligence of some voters, I think most have at least subconsciously figured this much out:
The latest ads go ‘how much higher will interest rates go under Labor’.
This has the obvious premise that the government either directly controls interest rates or due to its policies, influences them.
Problem here is, if the voters believe this then they will make the connection that interest rates have risen under Howard because of his policies.
Spin it the other way. If a voter sees interest rates as ‘imposed by the gods’ then all the ads do is further damage the credibility of the Liberals.
Gary Bruce – are they effective, in your opinion?
I’m sometimes wonder about election ads – they seem to follow the same formula every time, and I wonder if they’ve ever tried doing it slightly differently…
As I said before. The faux campaign is over, the starters gun has been fired by Stevens.
Bye Bye Liberals. 🙂
HH.. More likely the labor attack ads have been planned weeks in advance 🙂
Actually an election ad said that and only twice, Howard’s mantra throughout the 2004 campaign Spiros was actually that Interest Rates would always be lower under a Coalition government than a Labor government and this is still the case so i don’t believe he has lied.
Spiros Howard could claim they’d be lower under him than Latham because Labor can’t manage money and their last period of government shows this they buggered it all up and i have no doubt should Rudd win, rates will go to close to 8 or 9% from the 6.75 they are now, namely because of their IR policy and their inability to maintain budget surplus’s.
Why would voters punish Howard when the alternative the ALP would increase Interest Rates further?
There’s duelling interest rate ads on TV at the moment – dominating the news broadcasts. The Libs are running their scare ad at twice the rate of the ALPs. No doubt the ALP is holding fire for the last week. Overall, the rate rise will be a minus for the incumbent.
Glen, you have no evidence Labor would increase interest rates. Stop swallowing the crap fed to you by Liberal Party HQ!
Glen – I think you do doubt that they would go to 8 or 9 per cent if Labor wins, but it’s a good line.
Glen when Garrett made that gaffe we were critical of him. What do you think of Tips gaffe that they could hold the election in November because there is NO WAY there is going to be a rate rise. LOL
All Tip – economic credibility – ZERO
Albert Ross, your efforts on behalf of the stinking corpse that is the NSW Liberal Party are quite heroic. Parramatta is as safe as houses for Labor and the campaign is quite right not to spend any money on it. NSW Labor at the moment is concentrating on Bennelong, Wentworth, North Sydney, Robertson, Cowper, Gilmore and Greenway.
ShowsOn if “Costello is an economic dunce” what does that make Wayne ‘Rooster’ Swan and Kevin Rudd (a 1 year leader), “economic pre-schoolers”???
Elections are about choice ShowsOn they have a competent Coalition Government and an inexperienced ALP with an inexperience front bench and an inexperience leader. That’s why i believe this election is not over yet!
[Why would voters punish Howard when the alternative the ALP would increase Interest Rates further?]
Political parties don’t increase interest rates, economically retarded governments force the reserve bank to increase interest rates. Most recently this occured today.
But you may be right in one sense, it is possible that voters have already factored in how economically retarded the Liberal and National Parties are, and how they lie constantly about interest rates.
Btw, who is responsible for those shameful ads by the National Farmers Federation? And why aren’t the farmers themselves complaining about the waste of their money?
Glen
Howard said he would keep interest rates at 30 year lows – FACT.
Liberal Party advertising said interest rates at record lows – FACT.
Howard will lose – FACT 😉
Posted from the other thread because no one was listening.
My mother in law has been interviewed on AM for tomorrows show about interest rates. Asked if they would affect the way she votes, she said no. She was then asked if they would affect the way she votes if there was another rise she said no, but John Howard has been there far too long and she was sure all her children were voting him out.
[Elections are about choice ShowsOn they have a competent Coalition Government ]
The coalition government is incompetent, because they think inflation is good for the economy, and that interest rate increases are a sign of good economic management.
These are abusrd conclusions, even by your standards.
Face facts Glen, they are scraping the absolute bottom layer of the barrel now. They have absolutely nothing left.
I’m wondering if poll frequency impacts these figures.
To show what I mean, I’ve taken the major polls and roughly lined them up
Morgan, Newspoll, AC Nielsen, Galaxy. 2pp
(I had to shift dates a little…polletic licence)
01/09/2007 40.0 41.0
08/09/2007 41.0
15/09/2007 43.5 45.0 43.0 44.0
22/09/2007 39.5
29/09/2007 39.0 44.0
06/10/2007 42.5
13/10/2007 42.5 44.0 44.0
20/10/2007 44.0 42.0 46.0 47.0
27/10/2007 42.5 46.0
03/11/2007 –.- 47.0 43.0 46.0
So should they take
-the last 5 from each poll or
-the last months figures
-the last months average figures for each poll then average the result
etc
Labor’s ad goes to credibility. Howard says Who can you trust us to keep interest rates low. They show the number of interest rate rises and finish with Howard’s response, “Working families have never had it so good.” Quick and effective. I’ve seen it about 6 times since the news began. Flogging it.
Adam what do Labor think of their winning chances in Greenway?
“Interest Rates would always be lower under a Coalition government”
This is pure assertion, untested, unproven and unproveable. Howard got away with it last time because (a) interest rates went down in his 2001-2004 term and (b) he was up against Latham. Howard could have said that Latham will cause bubonic plague and got away with it.
But as Abraham Lincoln once said, you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
“Why would voters punish Howard when the alternative the ALP would increase Interest Rates further?”
Because what might happen under Labor is hypothetical and speculative, whereas the interest rate rises in the past three years have actually happened.
Padua did not make a gaffe, he merely stated that he believed IR would not have to go up in November, this was of course before the CPI figures were released.
When you have such a strong economy as ours it is susceptible to inflationary pressures and some of them are unavoidable, look how bad the drought is look at how oil has gone from $20US a barrel when Howard was elected in PM to being $96US a barrel. I think you should have some respect for someone who’s is and for ever shall be the longest serving Treasurer of Australia who could not possibly be a dunce as ShowsOn so crudely suggests.
ShowsOn if one side of politics is economically ‘retarded’ why is it not the ALP, who had 17% interest rates, 1 million unemployed and 96b of commonwealth debt?
How ironic it was for Howard to pick Keatings favorite Mahler for the cup.
I wonder if you could track it, if Rudd backing the cup winner will swing more votes than the interest rate rise ?
Adam, what are your insider Labor sources saying about Boothby and Sturt?
Gary Bruce – how does it compare with the government’s advertising?
Glen you state, “rates will go to close to 8 or 9% from the 6.75 they are now, namely because of their IR policy”
Explain how.
Labor has no show in Greenway, unfortunately. The boundaries have changed to favour the Liberals. It is solid bible belt territory now – the Liberals’ new heartland.
Glen: You have a shockingly bad memory to regurgitate that debunked lie.
Luckily enough, instead of refinding my past post of your lies, I now have news articles.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-treasurer-is-mainly-pretence/2007/11/06/1194329223119.html?page=2
[‘He was dishonest to claim much of the credit, reckless to make promises about something he didn’t control and misleading to claim that our choice of elected government would make a great difference to interest rates.’]
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/yesterdays_hero.htm
[‘Howard ’07 tries to deny that Howard ’04 promised to keep interest rates at record lows. That pledge was made in a Liberal advertisement, he says, not by him. “You didn’t get it out of my mouth.” And anyway, the ad “disappeared” after two nights. There are a few problems with this excuse. Far from being a product of the Liberal machine prepared without government participation, the TV commercial in question was actually launched by Peter Costello. And it was not taken off the air as a result of any misgivings expressed by Howard. In fact, it remained proudly on the Liberal website until just before Howard called this election. Besides which, a promise to “keep interest rates at 30-year lows” had come out of the prime minister’s mouth, in an October 2004 radio interview. ‘]
You only do your party harm by continuing to spout lies like Howard.
Latest odds (5.50pm Wed 7/11/07) [with changes in ALP win probability since 5/11/07]
(vig in brackets)
IASbet (4.2%)
ALP: 1.37 – 70 % [-0.8]
Coal: 3.20 – 30%
Portlandbet (5.5%)
ALP: 1.33 – 71.3% [-1.6]
Coal: 3.30– 28.7%
SportsAcumem (5.2%)
ALP: 1.36 – 69.9% [-4.4]
Coal: 3.15 – 30.1%
Centrebet (5.2%)
ALP: 1.36 – 69.9% [-1.7]
Coal: 3.15 – 30.1%
Sportsbet (4.9%)
ALP: 1.34 – 71.1% [-3.2]
Coal: 3.30 – 28.9%
Sportingbet (6.1%)
ALP: 1.32 – 71.4% [no change]
Coal: 3.30 – 28.6%
6 bookie ALP win probability is 70.6% [-1.95]
News reports have suggested that bookies have been taking some big bets for the Coalition over recent days. I suspect that this is a direct result of Tuesday’s Newspoll, which indicated a slight improvement in the Coalition’s fortunes.
For what it’s worth, the variation between prices offered by all six bookies is minor: .15 (3.15 – 3.30) for the Coalition, and .05 (1.32 – 1.37) for the ALP. On 5/11/07 it was .40 for the Coalition and .08 for the ALP.