The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
[As Labor leader Kevin Rudd demanded the Prime Minister take personal responsibility for breaking his 2004 promise, Mr Howard said he was asked innumerable questions and made multiple comments during campaigns.
“It’s no one statement that totally, well very rarely, is it one statement that totally sort of, adumbrates the whole thing,” he said.
“It’s the aggregate impression.”]
So what else do we put into this category???
“When I said:
*I wouldn’t push Workchoices further;
*carbon emissions would be cut back;
*I’d hold a referendum on Indigenous reconcilliation; or
*I’d hand over to Costello;
no-one believed me I because taking the totality of what I said everyone knew I was:
*an anti-union ideologue;
*a climate change skeptic;
*anti-Indigenous rights; and
*addicted to power.”
BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To a large extent, people factored in an increase in interest rates over a week ago when the CPI went up. So the issue has been going for quite some time already. The ALP is playing to one of the coalitions strengths by turning it into an economic management issue.
They have to let go of the obvious temptation to keep hammering Howard about broken promises because everyone knows he is a liar anyway and many don’t really care.
I think they have to quickly get back to their core issues of health, education, environment etc, for the last few weeks of the campaign.
Deo I agree.
Ramp up the “response” type adds with reminders that Howard lies, but the positive messages at the end.
Rudd has to turn on “the light on the hill” type of speeches
also map out a clear concise vision for the waverers
ignore the rodent and his rodentcy- lets now move forward to fixing up the mess
Just a thought…
Sports watchers would be well aware of those over-marketed and over-priced memorabilia pieces that are flogged by the likes of Richie Benaud on Ch. 9. You know the ones: the framed picture of Shane Warne celebrating his 10,000th conquest, with smaller pictures and stats and graph boxes down the bottom next to Shane’s signature. Well, if the ALP gets up, will somebody be flogging a framed picture of Kev, arms aloft in victory? Included at the bottom could be a picture of a sad and sorry looking Rodent, next to a set of tables showing seats won and lost and the signature of Kev. I’d love one, but I imagine that they’d be pricey; I might just make my own.
Just a thought.
I agree:
Labor believes in economic strength, but we also believe in the importance of community, the importance not just of generating wealth, but in fostering a sense of security. That’s why we will pull apart Workchoices, because we believe that in good times wealth should be shared faired, and in bad times people people should be treated fairly.
Something like that…
Hmm…so we have an interest rate rise, as expected. Am I the only one concerned that Labor now has an even tougher fight on its hands as Howard and Costello apply the economic management blowtorch. There is no question that the rate rise proves that governments and politicians have only peripheral influence over interest rates. But Labor can’t hide from its record and it’s not good.
Has anyone read the Piping Shrike?
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
He offers fantastic insights into the campaign and well worth a read. I like the reference to “anti-politics”.
For my 2 cents, I reckon Labor’s best bet is to drop the interest rate issue altogether and move well away from the economy for the rest of the campaign. That is the coalition’s strong suit and arguably Labor’s weakest suit. Labor is getting beaten about the head by the Coalition on IR, unions and economic management and can’t really return fire with much credibility. Rudd should start getting back onto the issues he can speak with credibility about – climate change, health, education, Howard’s lies, fixing the broken federation etc.
[For my 2 cents, I reckon Labor’s best bet is to drop the interest rate issue altogether and move well away from the economy for the rest of the campaign.]
Yeah, that worked brilliantly for Latham!!!
Arbie Jay #33
There is almost no chance Forrest will fall to Noel Brunning (the independent). His refusal to do a preference deal with Labor and his pro workchoices stance will kill him. He also refuses to door knock which is very interesting. Brunning with 15 to 20% of the vote mostly taken from and going back to the Libs. My prediction in Forrest is the Libs by around 3% over Labor.
Ahh yesssss…. but Latham was unfortunately in a campaign when rates were at record lows, not 11 year highs!
Just heard on ABC radio in Sydney: both Smirky and Rudd are addressing News Ltd editors today in Canberra.
I think that the point is you don’t run away from a fight or look scared of dealing with an issue – and in the wake of a rate rise that is where the debate is for now. You fight on that territory while that is where the attention is. And you keep fighting on all your strong points as well, because if attention swings back there you are laughing.
What is the ALP going to say in response to a question “Mr Swan, what do you think of this rate rise?”
“I think that climate change is a real concern”.
Of course not!
Re Deo at 52…
I launched into my spiel without reading those above me. I think Deo @ 52 said it all perfectly.
The rate rise is a non-issue. A few stragglers may drift over the Labor but it really just amplifies Labor’s shocking record on interest rates and economic management. What Rudd doesn’t need is another day of Howard and Costello hammering him over 17% interest rates and budget deficits. Not a good look. And sure to turn some waverers back to the dark side.
Time for more attack ads too.
Ashley @ 46
“Kevin Rudd’s line that interest rates have gone up every 15 weeks since the introduction of workchoices is the one he needs to hammer.”
Agreed, my not-very-political-but-labor-voting-girlfiend, jumped up when Kevin said that and just said, “Labor have to use that line.”
[A few stragglers may drift over the Labor but it really just amplifies Labor’s shocking record on interest rates and economic management.]
This is, to put it in the words of our magically disappearing Health Minister, bullsh*t.
Hang in there, BB, the third day is one of the toughest. If you can get through today you are well on the way to beating the dreaded fags.
You know you can do without for another 30 minutes – just keep doing that all day, and keep yourself occupied. If it gets too bad, fruit juces help to kill the ‘craving taste’, and a belt around the block on a pushie or a short jog will take your mind off it a bit.
Try and change your habitual ‘cigarette’ times – with a beer, or coffee, you know when. Avoid or try and change your normal routine then so that a fag is not part of it.
Be careful what you eat – it took two years for my body to get back to ‘normal’, but food will start tasting SO good it is very easy to get out of shape.
Still, round IS a shape ….. : )
Lots of luck – you have a lot of support here ….
Good point re Latham. But the public saw Latham as a union thug/loose cannon. Rudd doesn’t have that same scary outward appearance. But I agree, Labor can’t shirk the debate of the day.
Is there anything in simply confessing to making a hash of things in the past and vowing to turn over a new leaf, backed by nice statements of economic conservatism? I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see. Much like Iemma’s “more to do, but heading in the right direction”. Face the music head on and give solemn undertakings to do better next time.
Bedtime stories for naughty Tories …. : )
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-day-two-cunning-adventurers-fell-into-their-own-big-heffalumptrap/2007/11/07/1194329317516.html
“Adumbrates”
What the!
Tragic news for cricket tragics, this is the first time for years that the normal rain has returned to Brisbane and it is still raining lightly here. People can take umbrellas into the ground but under new crowd control rules are not allowed to use umbrellas if it rains. Howard’s thinking has trickled down to make cricket crowds one of the most over regulated meetings of people in the country.
Has anybody reminded Malcolm Turnbull to take his list of the other 24 places beside Bribie Island where Nuclear Power stations are going to be sited? The debate between Turnbull and Garrett today should be a cracker, not very often we get to see self made millionaires fight over environmental issues.
Garrett v Turnbull will be interesting. I wonder whether their gaffes will cancel each other out.
I fear Garrett will lose badly. To me, he is completely unconvincing when he is running lines he doesn’t believe in, like the Gunns pulp mill whereas Turnbull, for all his failings, has the gift of the political gab.
Ralph,
ON a federal level, what evidence, I mean, yes, from Whitlam of course they made mistakes, but that was 30 years ago, what you have the same opinion since then? What was true then, is not now…..
And come to think of it (ever the pessimist) just imagine if Garrett messed up badly. That would be the next big media “subject” after interest rates ie: Labor looking weak in an area that is supposed to be a key strength, the environment.
I’m not confident re Garrett either. In my opinion, he shouldn’t be environment minister in a Rudd government. I’d be giving him Arts and Sport – make him the minister for fun. It would also keep him out of the limelight and out of trouble. He also has no shortage of experience in the arts world, making him the most qualified arts minister the government could find.
labor needs to talk about the future , what policies, programs that over time will bring interest rates down, be honest about the future ,
let the liberals wallow in the past ,
rudd needs to talk about howard and costello voting against every wage rise for low income workers since they were elected in 96, another disgraceful lib record
The Skynews bulletins today are making a big fuss that the Newspoll for W.A. does not show Labor leading like it does in all other states. This tabloid television Howard Cheerleader is now obviously desperate to show any graphic which has Team Howard at parity with Team Labor. I guess the message is that W.A. is showing the true path for the rest of the benighted states to follow. No prizes for guessing that absolutely no mention was made that parity in W.A. still means a swing away from Howard on the 2004 W.A. result.
However, in the Skynews’ well balanced (strangely) “Agenda 07” program at 8:30 a.m. with Helen ? as interviewer, Wayne Swan did have the opportunity to point out this W.A. swing toward Labor, although he also spouted the usual caveats about poll volatility. BTW, his overall performance was more assertive and solid than I’ve seen previously, and he’s now stressing the point that the recent rate rises pain is far worse due to much larger mortgages, thus making housing affordability tougher than its’ ever been for battlers and first-home buyers.
[I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see.]
Ralph, the issue is not whether a record is there “for all to see” it is that some (such as yourself) have bought the lies peddled for 11 years by Howard and his parade of freaks. If you want an objective analysis of economic reform and management undertaken by the ALP have a listen to the most recent Boyer lectures by Ian Macfarlane:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/default.htm
It is easy to forget that Latham tried really hard to stick to his promsie to conduct a positive campaign and ignore the govt smears and a smarta_rse press looking for roadkill.
As much as we all say we hate negative campaigns they work where it counts.
If you’d like a refresher from that period that still has resonance today:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/09/1089000349258.html
Re Bird @ 73
I personally think Rudd would do a great job in government. It’s just the change that Australia is looking for. There is every bit of evidence that union influence would be at its lowest ever (despite being staked with union officials) and he’s not about to run up budget deficits if he can help it. I mean, he wants to get re-elected and he won’t do that if he runs around being reckless.
The real issue is the perception that Labor are poor economic managers. Howard and Costello have said it that often that more then 50% of Newspoll believe it. They have to address the perception that they can’t manage money, whether it is true or not.
I hope unemployment figures don’t show a drop to 4.1% from 4.2% today. We’ll never hear the end of it from the government, even though it has very little to do with them.
The state samples in Newspoll are equal, so the MoE for NSW in this poll is 4%. I believe that this is an outlier for NSW, and distorts the national average. The reason for this is that the NSW sample for each Newspoll is stretched almost 2-fold to get a national figure, as NSW has about 1/3 of the seats, but only about 1/5 of the poll samples. If the real NSW figure is still at 57-58, the actual national figure is around 55.
The Herald-Sun in Melbourne has an article on JASON WOOD (LIB, LA TROBE) about his complete 180 degree turn on the Liberal’s policy on nuclear power in Oz.
Maybe they read it here the other day. 🙂
It seems given the Newspoll figures Labor needs to talk about nothing at all for the next 2 weeks and just turn up. If the swing is a uniform 6%+ in SA and 7+ in QLD JWH is finished, even if he does get the swing down to 4% in VIC and NSW.
This question of changing the subject away from economic management is crucial for this reason:
We’re getting close to the pointy end of the campaign, and arguably, the interest rate rise is the very first time that generally uninterested voters have actually thought to themselves: “Hey, the reality of my day to day life is impacted by what these clowns are talking about. So what do I make of it all?”
That is the grave danger, I believe. That these people will for the first time really start paying attention – and the Coalition line about Labor’s poor record on interest rates and economic management generally will really start to bite.
BV @ 78
I acknowledge that Labor have been great economic reformers in the past. Indeed, we wouldn’t be where we are today without the courage of previous labor governments. And we need more of the courage in the future. I fully understand the level of spin that has gone on over the years to undermine the Labor economic cause. I am a Labor supporter and genuinely hope Rudd gets up on 24 Nov.
The problem, however, is that there is a perception in the community that Labor are not good economic managers. Marketing 101 says perception is reality and that is what Labor has to confront to win over people who are convinced by the lies peddled by the Libs.
Ralph,
But its annoying that people have very outdated views. Budget deficits are a normal part of running a country – its economics 101!! People have been brought up to think that deficits are bad and that getting into budget surplus is a sign of superior economic management – Labor, instead of educating people, as per usual bounce around to a neoliberal agenda. Frustrating!!
So, would you prefer a social democratic alternative? or a US style country?
For what it’s worth, I think Labor should make a fair degree of noise about interest rates, particularly targetting lower & middle income voters who are going to feel the pain of this latest rise the most. But they can’t afford to build the whole campaign around it. Labor is also vulnerable on this issue-but not so much because of Howard’s “17% under Keating” line, which I think has lost most of its potency. Labor’s problem is that it, like the Liberals, doesn’t have an answer to holding interest rates down. Improvements in education and faster broadband are going to halt inflation? Hogwash. That’s about as intelligent as Howard’s constant tax cuts, which are like pouring petrol on a fire-and which Rudd politically had to match. So run “interest rate rise every 15 weeks since Workchoices was introduced”, it’s a killer line, but keep going with the positive, new leadership stuff as well, and of course keep pushing Workchoices. Actually, I think Labor is running a very good, pragmatic, campaign-the only weakness is dud candidates in some seats, installed by factional deals or their spouses.
I think you shouldnt underestimate the potential for a swing in NSW too, there are some very strong locals who are first rate marginal seat campaigners in Craig Thompson in Dobell and Belinda Neal in Robertson.
[The problem, however, is that there is a perception in the community that Labor are not good economic managers. Marketing 101 says perception is reality and that is what Labor has to confront to win over people who are convinced by the lies peddled by the Libs.]
Exactly, and experience from 2004 demonstrated that not confronting the issue means that you are effectively allowing the other side to suggest you agree with their scare campaign.
“Not talking about” the issue is simply not an option. You need to talk about it in a way which assists you – and by framing the debate as about “working families”, “costs of living” and “housing affordability” the ALP may have discovered a means of doing so.
But, if you really are an ALP supporter, spouting blantantly untrue lines such as “I don’t see the point in continuing to pretend that Labor are great economic managers when the record is there for all to see”, is simply unhelpful.
Satisfaction with Rudd is still very high, at 60%+, and he’s still the Preferred PM. I believe that implies that most people feel that, although Howard may be better, Rudd would do a reasonable job with the economy. You can compare with Latham, who was getting smashed as PPM at this time.
The interesting question is what happens if labor loses? Surely it’s too terrifying to think about. It would have to be disastrous. But perhaps it would present a genuine opportunity to reinvent the party. I would say that they’d have to look at severing the union ties and moving more towards a genuine centre-left social democrat party similar to those found in Scandinavia for instance.
I am not sure if someone raised it here or on another site. However, I think Labor needs to push the Micro-line they have been since Rudd took the leadership. Go hard against Howard’s Marco stuff, but bring it back to the kitchen table.
92 – Labor will lose and they must face the future as a party who will never win again.
Perhaps they should merge with greens
[what happens if labor loses]
Workchoices would be “endorsed” by the electorate and gradually extended.
There would be another arch conservative judges appointed to the High Court during the next term.
There would be the potential for a wholesale sell off of public hospitals to private operators once they all have their own boards and the foundation of a US-style health system.
Education would be moved further towards user-pays.
And the ALP would be likely to move further to the right rather than the left.
Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Labor lost this one.
The economic wheels are almost certain to come off in the next year or two so if Labor wins they will have to wear the blame, however much the attribute the problems to the previous administration.
Let the unpopular Costello take the reins in a potentially nasty squabble, then let him wear some economic mayhem. After that Labor could win on pretty much any terms it likes.
Labor will win and we will see Whitlam Govt MKII
It’s not about rates per se, it’s about trust. “Who do you trust?” Remember?
Surely Labor’s argument is simple:
“If it’s not his fault they’ve gone up because he can’t control them, he lied in 2004 when he said he could.
If he can control them but hasn’t, you can’t trust him on rates any more.
He says to control rates you need work choices, but rates have gone up since work choices has come in.
Howard/ Costello = higher rates and less pay and conditions under work choices”.
Work choices is poison for the government. Good luck to them if they try to say to people that you need work choices to keep your wages down to control your interest rates. In other words “You’ll be better off with rates because we will make you worse off with your wages”.
I can really see that selling well, can’t you?
ESJ – While I respect that you have come to terms with the Libs most likely losing, I had a very similar statement issued to me by another Liberal voting friend. I just don’t see it happening.
For the next 3 years (good economic times or bad) Rudd will be able to unravel the myth of the Howard Costello as godlike economic managers. Unless Rudd does something completely out of line with his control freak persona, he will bang on about this all the way until the next election.
Fascinating article ed (76). The same names, the same tactics, the same glaring hypocrisy. Only the dates have changed.
And of course the fact that the mud doesn’t stick so readily to Rudd.