Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  2. Re “Knock Over Old Lady Scumbaggate”. Its what happens when ordinary people get sucked up into the howard spin vortex. That women got too close. Labor need to call for a Royal Commission.

  6. for mine, it’s certainly the photo of the campaign… that look on Mr. Howard with his finger wagging! the sprawled prostrate woman, clutching her head… in real pain _and_ absolutely no-one from the government helping! it’s priceless! It’s captures precisely what Howard has done to middle Australia…

  7. [Turns out it was Hyacinth that clocked the lady….she thought it was Pete’s wife]

    Looking at the picture a little closer it could be the member for Goulborn

  8. John of Melbourne Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 4:20 pm

    Let it end I’m here 🙂

    Hi John, tell me though, why have your guys gone so cold on the “TEAM” thingy of late, has that been ditched now?

  11. Well, dipping inot the Morgan toolbox, my theory is that the discrepancy between Morgan phone and F2F (in this case 5%) is an exact measure of the “Howard voting as dirty, embarrassing secret vice” factor.

    Id say we’re about 54-46 in reality. AC Nielsen will tell us. Its the only poll worth a pinch of shit, IMHO.

    Though again, I would say read the others for trends, not values. Clearly, there’s a small movement to ALP over the last 5 days.

  16. There was an old Rodent from Wollstonecraft
    Who in his dithering days became awful daft
    Cabinet started to worry
    He can’t apologise but says “sorry”
    And then his government’s numbers were cut in half

  17. How defeated does Tip look on Agenda.

    the stupid sod is trying to explain his point to David Speers…who seems confused.

    how is Mr and Mrs averaged supposed to understand his message.

    they are so confused.

    the bastards have been asleep at the wheel ,thinking Crosby_Textor and OUR ad money, would win it all again for them.

    slither off into the ethers you miserable Coalition.

  18. WOW, thanks you guys, Yeah I think previous poster was right this could be the handshake moment, partic when you get the overall context of the story, hecklers, ppl refusing toshake his hand etc etc….

    scumbaggate is the current handshake moment favourite though it could be neck and neck with the non apologygate which im favouring.

    We’ve got to find that moment!

    Also according to this pohotographic evidence (CSI if you will) Howards breath has a range of about 3 meters.

  19. John Rocket # 193 LMAO 🙂

    Let it end # 203. don’t know what’s going on with the team thingy of late… probably JWH is doing a good job on his own.

    Let it end what happened to Labors productivity argument where did that go?

  20. Gerr the lady on the floor was a Union official, lol. She fell because the cleaners were on strike and there was no one to clean up the spilt drink on the floor. LMAO

  23. 61-39 is quite bad for both sides at this stage of the game. Doesn’t really help the Mt Everest narrative and might let some think they are off the hook and don’t have to vote Labor to get rid of WorkChoices.

    I wonder what Kroger’s spin will be on Lateline tonight if he is on.
    Kroger: “Look, this interest rate rise hasn’t hurt the government, Labor has only gained 2 points from the poll of 59-41 a couple of months ago and now everyone is discussing the economy which is the government’s strength. I would expect the polls to narrow from here”.

  24. The guy on the right looking at him and the yawning minder in the background are what really make that photo. Hope the lady pulls up ok.

  25. Centaur_007 179

    Thanks although I have some excellent quality sparkling reds (which I highly recommend) that taste lovely, are made in Australia, and seem most fitting for the defeat of a government that has trully put the “Con” back into Conservative.

    For those interested, IMHO Seppelt in Great Western, Victoria, Yalumba (“Dark” sparkling Shiraz) in SA and a host of makers in Rutherglen make great sparkling red.

    I know we must stay disciplined etc. But if there is one thing this campaign has shown to me so far, Kevin Rudd really is ready to be PM. He is smart, disciplined and emotionally mature. Even when some have stumbled he has remained calm and not over reacted. I think people are seeing that.

  26. She dropped to the floor because someone had told her this was the appropriate (formal) manner in which to greet a dictator.

  27. The deliciously named ‘scumbaggate’ will only resonate with the same frequency if it is aired on the commercial news. Lateline might be the only news worth its salt, but its on ABC at 10:30, not exactly the height of popular viewing.

  28. HarryH, Confused is right. Howard did so well for so long because he could stay on message and get the rest of the party to do the same but this election is a complete mess. ‘Go for growth’ seems gone because it is economically stupid in the current inflationary climate, yet he and Tip don’t have a coherent 2nd policy line other than it would all be worse under Labor. They can’t explain why that might be though other than it will somehow be the unions’ fault. Also, for all they criticise Labor for not being able to ruduce housing stress, they don’t have anything of their own to address the problem either other than maintain the surplus.

    If you compare that to Labor, the message has been solid all along. I don’t think that there will be much more me tooing though (unless it comes from the Libs) because, quite frankly, it would be stupid to agree with anything the Libs say from here on in (for a starter, you wouldn’t even know what you are agreeing with).

  29. Maybe she fainted when Howard told her that she was going on an AWA and that she would earn 94% above those on a collective agreement.

  30. TurningWorm @ 218

    My mate, who I don’t think has ever watched Lateline in his life, caught it last time Kroger was on was was like ‘Gee that Kroger guy is a complete idiot’. Made my night LOL

  34. People – do not count your chickens. There are 2 weeks to go… It is likely that Labor will win, probably by a narrow margin, but if something dramatic happens between now and then, who knows…

    We all know that John Howard has few scruples when it comes to winning elections.

  35. to Howard: I’m SORRY to vote you out this election

    to others: I APOLOGISE for voting for Howard in the 2004 election. It’s just that Latham scared the sh*t out of me Should have given my vote to Democrats instead, but then that would still let the scumbag slipping in 🙂

  40. 61-39 is quite bad for both sides at this stage of the game. Doesn’t really help the Mt Everest narrative and might let some think they are off the hook and don’t have to vote Labor to get rid of WorkChoices.

    It’s Morgan – only us and a couple of desperate staffers will take notice.

    This Morgan F2F is good for the WTF factor and just adds to the somewhat surreal turn the campaign has taken in the last week or so (the knocked out lady incident included).

  42. TofK – what’s in the headlines? The morga results? or the lady in the tracksuit being knocked out by jonhnie’s entourage?

  45. She’s probably still writhing around in casualty as we speak, popping panadeine forte like smarties. Poor woman. I guess it would have been easier if she’d taken out private cover …

  47. John,

    Probably escaped your attention but seems labors productivity argument is now very much at the heart of the inflation problems Howie is having. Believe Stevens referred to it as capacity constraints didn’t he. 🙂

    I think Howie is in dire straights trying to run the show himself,. Been reduced to telling everyone workchoices keeps wages down after spending $600 mill of advertising over the last 6 months telling everyone you earn more with workchoices. Is he now agreeing with the Union campaign? Bit confusing don’t you think? What happened to big Joe’s claims workchoices pays 96% more, that went quite pretty quick with release of inflation figures 🙂

    As for the team, I think they’ve deserted you John, they’ve all gone AWOL on Howie 🙂

    Even you must admit the Lib campaign is an utter debacle, that’s what happens when you have no plan and just cobble together some pork.

  49. Eastern State news watchers, if the news bulletins do include it – could you tell us whether they also included any of the footage of ppl yelling ‘scumbag’ and ‘disgrace’… and if they do, whether those ppl are ‘ferals’ or ‘kath and kimers’

  50. I suspect the more long last pain will be as a result of the pictures of her writhing on a shopping centre floor in a track suit. Poor thing

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