Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  5. The government’s message on WorkChoices is confusing.

    On the one hand, WorkChoices is good because it makes wages higher.

    On the other hand, WorkChoices is good because it makes wages lower.

  10. Only a small bit about the fall, no shouting. Portrays it as a non issue, very different to the ABC article. Switches quickly to the carmaking industry.

  12. Anyone else notice on that pulp mill poll that 60% (!) of voters aged 18-24 that had no idea that the pulp mill had been approved.
    (Amusingly, even 28% of Greens voters were not aware).
    I sincerely hope this doesn’t mean the main reason the ALP is ahead in the polls is because a significant part of their support base (younger voters) are woefully ignorant of what issues they are even voting on.

  13. Looks like people might have put away their baseball bats for H*ward and now they have the Ratsack® out ready for 24 November.

    Now he’s knocking over ladies in shopping malls, without even a pretence of remorse. Just as well Janette’s renovated the Wollstonecraft compound for his wheelchair. He’ll need to move out as soon as 25 Nov at this rate.

    Be careful those talking about H*ward’s health. Last time I and a few others broached the subject, LTEP and his mob laughed us out of town and tried to shut us down.

    Mark my words. H*ward is not just on his last political legs.

  14. 174 Ashley

    What Antony really needs on his calculator is a ‘4 horsemen of the apocalypse’ button. With graphic visuals you can play on election night as each seat falls. I leave the rest to your imagination.

    BTW, I plan to enjoy a nice drop of Howards End from the CFMEU cellars release….

  15. Socrates-best of all will be a Rockford’s Black Shiraz. And what is the Rodent doing to that poor woman? It looks like he’s giving her the last rites.

  16. It’s right up there with Hawke’s “Silly Old Bugger” and Keating’s “Get A Job” for classic campaign moments.

  17. OK, one more caption for that classic picture of Howard and the postrate lady:

    Woman collapses in Penrith shopping centre after seeing dead rat.

  18. This Sorry-but-not-Apology sagga is another proof of how deceiving, cunning and hideous Howard is. Remember the Record-Low-Interest-Rate denial? Howard said those words did not come out of this mouth!!?! huhhh?!?

    God! I’m speechless! Howard’s tricks with his tongue are beyond my imagination

  19. Morgan face to face may be a more honest representation of how people feel when asked the question of who they will vote for.

    As I mentioned before people can be uncomfortable giving their political views over the phone and as many have said it is not until you get talking to friends, work mates and those you meet that you realise the feeling against Howard.

    Doesn’t mean Morgan F2F is entirley accurate as it may be skewed by the location, people not at home etc.

    But all pollsters have their commercial market besides politcs and they rely on the credibility of their polls to market to businesses. For example a Morgan F2F may be more reliable than a phone poll for which brand of washing detergent, or DVD recorder, or what are important factors in buying a new car is the best as you get a more honest response.

    I don’t think any pollster fudges results, they may try and skew them with loaded questions for a client who is trying to push their product as being better but many businesses rely on reliable as possible polling for customer feedback.

  21. Kirribilli Removals @ 261: LOL – best one so far!

    I hope you’re free on Sunday 25 November. You’re going to have your work cut out for you. Just make sure Janette doesn’t put prawn heads in the curtain rods on her way out…

  22. WorkChoices will double you pay; scrapping WorkChoices will lead to a recession; WorkChoices will keep wages under control; the economy is strong; there is an economic tsunami coming; rising interest rates are the result of a good economy; be scared; don’t be scared; Go For Growth; No don’t go for growth; infaltion is due to petrol prices; the high aussie dollars makes petrol cheaper; Sorry; Sorry isn’t an appology;

    Howard and Costello have a double position on everything. Do they have a clue?

  23. Arbie Jay – we’d all like to think you’re correct.
    I think Peter Brent or Possum or someone has done analysis on the comparative merits of f2f and telephone – and i don’t think it is supportive

  24. Morgan 61-39

    on Antony’s calculator that equals 17 seats for the Coalition.

    Tabitha’s prediction of 148 seats is starting to look a lil shakey now

    but the “narrowing” is still to come i guess.

  25. Ooops, funny typo alert! That should be “prostrate”, although she did fall over after the rate rise, so it was kind of “postrate”! LOL

  29. Diogenes 259

    Absolutely right – we have some Rockford and its wonderful stuff. Not cheap but celebrating regenticide/rodenticide might merit opening a bottle.

  31. No fear John Ryan, we are ready on the 25th, and we’ll be rocking around about 5am, and the Rodent’s corpse will be the first thing to get bagged! Hyacinth will still be bombed out on tranquilisers and will be in no fit shape to cause anyone any trouble…ever,ever again!

  34. Anyone who really thinks that Labor will get 60%+ of the vote is nuts.

    53% will be more than enough.

    54% will be a landslide

    55% will be an avalanche.

    Anything above that and we are in the realm of science fiction.

  35. Arbie Jay 263

    I remember reading an artical at the roymorgan website by Roy Morgan earlier this year and he was under the opinion that the Face 2 Face polling was more reliable and more favourable to the Coalition than the Telephone Poll.

    According to Roy this was due to the fact that he believed conservative voters were not open as much to give their opinions over the phone. This was evident earlier in the year which was finding that the Coalition polled consistently better in Face 2 Face polls than Telephone polls. It is now the reverse for some reason, the Coalition has seemed to do better in the Phone polls rather than the Face 2 Face polls.

    Therefore, from this we can take nothing at all of value, as the current polling is in direct contradiction to Roy Morgans earlier beliefs.

    The best thing to do is look at the poll, have a laugh for a second at the Coalition, and then get on to another subject, cos the morgan poll has lost it venom.

  36. Mike

    I’m not saying 61-39 will be the result, just it shows the depth of feeling against this tired old lazy government.

    I do think F2F is more reliable for getting an honest opinion but as I said the locations and times can skew the results, as others have noted, eg rural areas may not be polled which downplays the National Party vote, people off at work etc.

  38. That Australian article was funny JoM, the woman was taken by centre management to a local GP… but she left cos the GP was too busy to see her!

    Also, despite the ‘scumbag disgrace’ reports from ABC, according to the GG… everyone still loves Dear Leader…

    “Most people seemed genuinely pleased to see the Prime Minister, asking him to pose for photos and smiling and shaking his hand.”

    And those who don’t love Dear Leader – prank handshakers everywhere… we’re talking to you now… well, they get spoken to by the police! Good to see the Liberals are still tough on crime! I still haven’t heard any concrete policies from Howard regarding his plans to combat graffiti? Glen, if you’re out there, have you got another link to the Herald-Sun telling us about this plank in the PMs re-election agenda?

  39. The Shanner: ‘Labor languishing in low 60’s’, ‘Howard retains support’, ‘Rudd’s support soft’.
    he should just do a generic one for all his stories: ‘I’m a right wing liberal trying to turn sh_t into flowers’

  40. I’ve got some Seppelt Show Sparkling ’90 saved just for the 24th.

    So, if the libs lose Bennelong, Higgins and Wentworth does that count as losing 3 ‘leaders’? The current one, the next one and the one after that? Losing one leader is unfortunate, but 3 is careless (apologies to Oscar)

  41. Howard looks like a real goose just standing there, what a terrible photo. Did he call out ‘Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker’ ? Or simply go for the ‘twitch’ ?

    I wonder if this will create another sorry not sorry outcome?

  43. Tributes to Peter Andren at his funeral today included ‘a man of the people,for the people’. He truly was the best of Australian values personified- values that inspired me to become an Australian citizen.

  44. Howard (to stricken woman): Now there’s a little something to go on with. I mean, I might look like a soft touch, but let me tell you my dear woman, cross me and I’ll smack you down like one of those nasty Arab people in Cronulla. (turning to minder) Give her fifty bucks, tell her who to vote for and, for god’s sake, tell her to keep her powder dry till polling day … I mean, goodness gracious!

  45. Yes the 61-39 poll is probably fantasy. But the fact polls like this even exist two weeks out from an election do speak volumes. Please tell the last time there’s been a poll of this magnitude so close to a federal election? 1975?

    This means a 55%+ result is possible.

  47. Poll of 900 by Uni of Adelaide politics dept gives Labor a first preference vote of 50 per cent in SA. For the Senate it’s 34.4 per cent ALP, 28.8 Liberal, 24.2 Xenophon and 7.3 Greens. That translates to two senators for Labor, two for the Libs, one to Nick Xenophon and a toss-up for last between the Greens, Xenophon’s running mate Roger Bryson and the ALP.

    Interesting that both Libs and ALP are putting a lot into Kingston.

  48. “Pakistan Opposition Leader Is Placed Under House Arrest

    Benazir Bhutto was placed under house arrest Friday, an
    official of her party confirmed. The area around her
    residence in Islamabad was sealed off by the police.”

    John Howard wishes he could do the same. 🙂

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