The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
What the hell is wrong with you, comrades? Where has all this pessimism come from? Did I miss a poll while I was reading my book? No. Can’t see anything new on the net. It’s going to be a cakewalk. The people have had enough of Howard. Havent they told us in every fuc*ing poll for twelve months? As someone said earlier, the only question is how many ministers lose their seats and what champagne to buy.
432 Gerr – Ok, let me name two for a start off. Laura Tingle (Lateline last night) and Imre (sorry forgotten his last name – writes for ‘The Australian’) on Agenda some nights back. Laurie Oakes on Sunday. I rest my case.
Make that 3.
Diogenes 452
Fully behind you there fellow Commie. These so called ‘True Believers’ are making me sick. Harden-uuuuuuuuuuuuup fools, its 2 weeks to Utopia.
Just look at The Rat yesterday when the lady got flattened, he doesnt know what to do anymore, in any respect of life, he looks lost. This lady was postrate on the ground and all he could do is look at her like a stunned mullet, then when it registered that he is of no use to anyone and doesn’t have the ability to give first aid The Rat took off. What a coward.
His whole flight or fight instinct was shown in its entire glory yesterday… When The Rat sees trouble he runs. Is this the type of guy we need as leader in these so called troubled times… I think not
Daily Telegraph Bennelong poll on Monday: said it will shock seasoned political observers. This was featured on today’s front page along with a picture of Maxine, which makes me think it might be more bad news for the Rodent.
Rodent… you are the weakest link… goodbye
Thought I might give the limerick contest a kickalong:
A pugilistic ex-seminarian,
Sought control of all matters ovarian,
Come November (five and twenty),
He’ll need sedatives a-plenty,
And a stint in a nice sanitarium.
I’m in Bennelong, and the support for Maxine around here is overwhelming. There’s a Maxine poster in front of at least one house in every street. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s deep trouble for the Rodent.
Dazzamack – you are keeping me sane. I am at the fidgetty stage too. I’ve been around as long as Howard and I can tell you that those 30 years have been 30 too long – underneath he and Hyacinth are the sneakiest little pair (polite, aren’t I!) that you could come across. I worked for Ruddock’s father’s best mate for a few years in the 80s and the talk around the legal mob was that he was very much less than a suburban solicitor. Has never changed from what I can see. So I want him out for my own sanity and to save the telly set from my demented husband who wants to throw something at it when Howard appears.
Thanks to the rest of you too – in my darkest moments I can manage to get a laugh and cheer from your comments.
Ophuph Hucksake 458
Superb. Best yet I reckon. Sets standard even higher.
Su H,
I take everything back, Labor is in dire trouble, I just read in the Terrorgraph that Shannon Noll is supporting the National Party. So by my calculations all the young voters in australia will suddenly vote for the Coalition because the greatest rock singer this country has ever known is supporting the Nationals.
Its time to get worried. 😉
Sky News election coverage linked from News Ltd online sites is most of the time showing Howard press conferences. I have tuned in three times and have only seen Howard talking. Talk about state-controlled television!
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
pic of howard and the fallen woman at the shopping center with him saying:
“listen b*tch, you’ve never been better off, so get up because i’m nto going to aplologise.”
v. funny……
Ever since I saw Maxine on SBS with a local Bennelong audience I knew she was going to win. She was winning doubters in the audience in the space of an hour. AND a lot of locals would have watched the show – about themselves, the PM and Maxine. All would have been impressed. Rudd’s Chinese connections and continual focus on education also certainly helps with the asian segment.
Okay, yesterday, Alex the prank handshaker gets taken away and ‘talked to’
by the police, today, Lucy the Sheep gets arrested, roughed up AND a photographer who asks her if she’s okay, get threatened with arrest…
What is wrong with this country? Why is this acceptable?
Once again, got that sick feeling in my guts.
Please, let Labor win.
Who cares about Shannon Noll?
David Wenham is backing Labor. That ought to win Rudd some more of the female vote
Great! I’ve got $300 on Max to win in Bennelong.
I bet the poll on Monday shows Max ahead 53-47. Labor has been getting 52 or 53 in every poll since the beginning of the year.
Your average punter simply refuses to believe that Howard can lose. I prefer to trust the 5 or 6 polls which have been run, all of which showing Howard is going down.
I think people are erroneously applying the whole “narrowing” idea to Bennelong (not just nationwide). But if anything, I would expect a widening. Maxine will win more people over the more people she meets… not so John Howard, who already has a massive (and ugly) profile.
Pravda will cease opertations soon. Maybe Pravda was more objective than the GG.
461
Rusted on Says:
Ophuph Hucksake 458
Superb. Best yet I reckon. Sets standard even higher.
I agree, the bar has just been lifted another notch or two.
Well done, OH.
The limericking brought to mind John Dengate’s “I can’t abide” -http://unionsong.com/u046.html (no idea how to link it!!) – the Titanic imagery may well be most appropriate in two-double 0-kevin
BTW, Howard Hater: where did you see the Bennelong info? Was it in the treeware version of today’s paper or online?
Kina 464,
I saw that SBS Insight program too. Maxine was composed, but obviously upbeat that night and The Rat looked troubled, and we are talking about a program that went to air about 3 months ago. Imagine how worried The Rodent would be by now. he must know he is gone.
When my girlfriend sees Rudd kickin it in Mandarin on Chinese Satelite she gets very hyped because some white guy has bothered to learn her language and could run the country she has chosen to call home. I can just imagine how many Chinese/Asian voters in Bennelong, which make 17% of the seat are feeling right now. I would say it will be a 90-10 split among the asian vote.
The asian vote must not be undersestimated here.
Maxine WILL win the seat, and The Rodent knows it.
Likewise Ashley, a bit of a wager on Maxine here too. I’ve been amused to see her shorten to $2.60 on SPortingbet and then go out to $2.75 as the mugs piled in on the last Newspoll! Still, got mine at $2.80 the week before the rate rise, and I’m just itching to see Labor’s primary rise on the strength of that little blunder by the Rodent.
The Cyclops of Oz (Shannahan) can point to the 12% who say they blame Howard for the rate rise and then claim it’s not large enough to matter, but what the one-eyed Sham won’t say is that a lot of that 12% will be in seats that do matter, and they will also be in Bennelong.
When the voters of Bennelong see he’s headed for political oblivion, they ain’t going to vote for him out of sympathy!
On ALP’s TVCs. I know this horse has been flogged a bit today, but it still hasn’t been answered to my satisfaction (don’t have a TV at the moment, which also adds to my confusion about this issue). Am in advertising and am trying to get my head around what, on the face of it, seems to be a strategic marketing error in the ALP’s campaign. A few comments:
– From various comments here, it appears Labor’s TV advertising is definitely running second to LNP (though it’s certainly not non-existent). Union Workchoices ads are a good help but they don’t substitute for ALP ads.
– The fact Latham lost the election doesn’t mean he’s necessarily wrong about TV advertising. That’s a logical fallacy.
– The fact ALP is ahead in the polls doesn’t mean it should give up advertising. It’s by no means in the bag yet. And the Libs’ scare campaign surely demands some direct rebuttal (they proved it could work last time, after all). I don’t buy that because ALP is polling well the Coalition ads are 100% ineffective and we can sit on our hands, or save our pennies. Sure, ALP might win without advertising at all; but why not increase our chances if we can?
– A week or two ago, I heard talk that ALP was saving up an enormous warchest to spend in the closing weeks of the campaign. But it seems that it hasn’t started yet.
Now sure, you need to present voters with your ideas fairly late in the day, so that the ideas are still fresh in their heads in the ballot box. But ideas also need a little time to sink in; that’s especially the case when you’ve had a scare campaign priming people for weeks. Psych research has demonstrated that people tend to believe in the ideas that hit them “first” in time, rather than later in time. If they leave it too late, the fear might start getting ingrained.
I guess it all boils down to — start spending your cash, boys. Now. Perhaps the onslaught will begin this Saturday or Sunday, but leaving it much later would seem to be reckless in the extreme…
Dazzamack from Perth i hate to spoil the party but Howard is on around about 4.5% that would require a landslide result for Labor to win and a massive drop in Howard’s primary vote which aint gonna happen. Labor’s primary vote was extremely low in 2004 and all you’ve done now is taken votes off the greens who got 16% with Wilkie so don’t get your hopes up on knocking off Howard, this will only happen in a massive landslide.
Oh and the Asian voters you’d expect would be more Labor than Liberals anyway so no big loss for Howie.
Diogenes, even Geelong supporters were nervous before they played Port in this years Grand Final.
#475
Yes I second this. Any ALP insiders on this blog should really convey to the Campaign advisers that the TV onslaught should begin no later than tomorrow. The Coalition will step things up a notch in the final weeks, and there could be hell to pay for the ALP if they don’t begin the blitz ASAP. People don’t hate the unions, but they will if the Coalition’s ads go unanswered.
Glen — how do explain the 3 galaxy polls to date (plus possibly another one on Monday) which all show Maxine winning with a minimum of 52-48.
If it was a single poll, I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. But we’ve now had 5 since May (3 from galaxy, 2 from morgan)… and in all of them she is winning comfortably on both primary and TPP figures.
Actually, if they are saying it will shock seasoned political observers it is possible we may even have a 54-46 result.
I would bet 53-47 though.
[so don’t get your hopes up on knocking off Howard, this will only happen in a massive landslide.]
Oh, good, so we can put that down as a gain for the ALP then…
Since when has it been the role of the police to be the PMs PR minders? The police accost people because of what? A fake handshake? Do the police now see themselves as part of the Liberal party? Time to readjust their sets.
Dammit I only have $300 on Maxine and no spare cash for a week or so. The current odds will evaporate if the next few polls confirm a widening.
Because Ashley look at historically Labor’s vote in Bennelong in well the past two elections.
In 2004 the ALP got 28.4% primary vote and somehow this has gone up almost 20% bull butter. There is no question Howard will lose votes this time round but he is safe in Bennelong despite these polls.
Betamax, just saw an ALP ad on Garry Nairn pointing out how many times he voted for workchoices. Very strong attack ad.
Hasn’t Bennelong been gerrymandered since then (2004) and if so …there you go.
Once agin we get the frog poo about the last election result was not real because the greens got 16%. Do you think these people are suddenly going to vote for Howard?
The TPP from the last election is real. Howard is in deep brown stuff upto his neck.
Glen, I know you like to be the centre of attention on this blog, and put your 2 cents in (or is that 2.2 cents GST included), but Labor has got this one and you damn well know it. You are simply on this blog to stir up sh*t and get some of these Labor voters who have jitters wound-up.
On your asian point, you are stereotyping and assuming that asians vote Labor, but you know damn well that that hasnt been the case in the past, as I know, and you could probably ask Kina too on this point, that many asians have voted for The Rat or his merry band of weasels.
Your Dark Lord is about to be ousted, harden the f**k up and get used to it, stop being a cry-baby and act like a man, gettin’ tired of your lame comeback points.
Even if the Greens got 0% primary vote the ALP would still be on 44% and the Tories on 50% primary not good enough ruawake from 2004 figures.
WE need labor attack and rebutt ads
or else.
Inner Westie @ 368,
Speaking of Dr. Doolittle I think the Liberal Party co-leadership of the Rodent and the Smirk reminds me of the “Pushmi-pullyu”.
For those not familiar with this creature, a pushmi-pullyu (pronounced “push-me-pull-you”) is a fictional creature in the Doctor Dolittle stories. It is a antelope which has two heads at opposite ends of the body. When it tries to move, both heads try to go in opposite directions.
LOL, poor Glen, I really do try to see things from his point of view but no mater how hard I try I just can’t seem to get my head that far up my arse.
Glen,
I about to go pick up my gf from work and then we are going out for Korean BBQ with a large group of Chinese friends. I will ask around and see how many of them or their relations voted Lib last election and get back to you… settle this once and for all
Dazzamack though i don’t doubt your sincerity no one can substantiate whatever figure you come up with tonight.
Glen, if 2004 results were replicated in 2007 then Howard would be laughing.
Unfortunately for him, the reason we hold elections every 3 years is because things change. The argument that “well, he won last time didn’t he?” is just silly and I won’t debate it any further.
Prediction based on swings recorded in polls in each state of Ministers (Cabinet and outer) to lose their seats (to pace the drinking games)
Howard-Bennelong
Brough-Longman
Turnbull-Wentworth
Dutton-Dickson
Nairn-Wakefield
Pyne-Sturt
Lloyd-Robertson
Gambaro-Petrie
Oh the Humanity!!
Boy is the sh*t going to hit the fan if we have a 53-47 Bennelong poll.
Particularly sweet if it’s out on Monday too… that’s the day the Libs are launching their campaign.
Look everyone forget the Bennelong debate – just go to the online betting sites and cash in.
Most commentators think if the ALP wins (and looks likely to win witha week to go) then Howard will lose, so instead of getting the $1.30 for the ALP, take the $2.60 for Maxine and laugh.
#496
I’d be laughing if Gambaro lost Petrie, as I live in that electorate, but I don’t know how likely it is. I’ve seen the Labor candidate Yvette D’ath out and about, on the hustings and on street corners, but haven’t seen Gambaro yet. Maybe she expects to hold the seat regardless? If she’s voted out, then I expect a swag of other safe-ish Liberal seats to fall too.
I like it Diogenese, but Nairn is Eden-Monaro
Re Bennelong, it seems the vote is very close. Every poll that asks has the answer to the ‘Who do you think will win?’ question at around 70:30 to the ALP. There is no reason to believe that the answer to that question would be different in Bennelong. As it becomes plainer and plainer to anybody who takes the slightest bit of notice that the Coalition are gone, it seems to me highly likely that the necessary small percentage of swingers in Bennelong will decide that they would rather be represented by a front-bencher in the new government, than by a failed has-been who will resign as soon as he can, making them vote again to elect the person they could just elect now.
cheers,
Alan H