The Age has published the third of ACNielsen’s online polls, which are taken from a representative sample of around 1400 volunteer market research subjects. It shows Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, the same result as the previous such survey a fortnight ago. However, Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 45 per cent, with the Coalition also down a point to 40 per cent. John Howard has picked up three points on the preferred leader question directly at the expense of Kevin Rudd, whose lead is now 50 per cent to 42 per cent.
[Hi Shows On
just rang the Aus and spoke to quite a young journo and mentioned that the headline for this story totally misrepresented Brad Norringtons work:]
You are exactly right. The article is that only 1 in 2 businesses can figure out what a proper AWA looks like. It has nothing to do with bureaucracy. The bureaucracy is doing its job, finding employers trying to intentionally, or other wise, rip off their workers.
[Well, I’ve been a sceptic for a while, not believing that Labor can win, hoping for all I’m worth that I’m wrong, but today I’m calling it.
Howard can’t win from here. Full stop, End.]
How many seats will Labor win? Most people on this blog say 85 – 87.
I say 85.
“Rudd needs to go harder on that point that Howard says WorkChoices will limit wage increases to the most productive areas of the economy”
Rudd had the perfect argument with the double whammy – workchoices takes wages away, higher interest rates asks you pay more. Howard is hitting you twice.
And now a message of encouragement from the Mother Country.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Were-You-Still-Up-Portillo/dp/0140272372
Observe the two men in this photo. Observe the one smiling in the background. He is a Labour man. You will see many of those smiles from Labor men and women in a fortnight’s time.
See the man at the front. He is a Tory. He is not a bad man; nevertheless he is a sad man. You will see lots of sad Tories in a fortnight’s time.
Look back at this photo over the coming days. My fervent desire and hope for you all is that it will settle your nerves before Armageddon and the merciless slaughter and bloodbath that will rightly follow (yea, verily).
Everyone, sign my petition so we can see Keating V Hewson – the re-match on the Lateline before election day. It is here:
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
[Rudd had the perfect argument with the double whammy – workchoices takes wages away, higher interest rates asks you pay more. Howard is hitting you twice.]
Yes, I want to hear more of that. He could even add that he offers a tax cut that will get eaten up by inflation.
Dave @ 17
The fact that it’s self selected is a bit of a worry but great result nonetheless
Hi Shows On et al
I think that at the end of this campaign examples like shanahans on the car industry and tonights misrepresentation of norrington’s article via a midleading headline should all be collated and kept as a distinct thread, website whatever, so that the GG’s distorted view of the campaign is properly recorded for future reference
(obviously this will be more fun if howard doesn’t win!!)
but still, i reckon this blog amongst others has done a fantastic job in catching out the MSM (ie, they like to play gotcha against everyone else but don’t like the role reversal) and we deserve to collate a listing of the best/worst examples of bias on the face of the record if nothing else
sure the journos will bitch and moan, but they won’t be able to argue with the record in black and white..
for once and for all we can nail the MSM for their sleights of hand, so why not…
and sometime its the small things like the headline on norringtons piece that reveal the true extent of the malevolence…
kina @ 50. Interesting to see the trend (or lack of it) in the Liberal primaries. We here a lot about reaching “peak oil”, maybe we have reached “peak Liberal.”
I just can’t see how they can recover from here.
I was one of the people predicting 87 seats to Labor previously but according to Antony greens calculator if the 56/44 result holds on election night the score would be:
Labor 96
Coalition 52
Independant 2
If that is teh case I think Howard should be the first to adopt a new slogan:
Kevin11
Because if they lose this badly Rudd will have enough of a buffer for at least two terms.
I can go to sleep happy now 🙂
Get Real. I agree. I’d also include the bizarre ‘gay’ non-story today, and (continuing the theme), Glenn Milne’s nasty little piece which noisily called on Rudd to distance himself from the gay-baiting of a Coalition MP, even though Rudd had nothing to do with it, the story itself clearly admitted that Labor had nothing to do with it, and all the evidence showed the rumours had come from the Right.
[The fact that it’s self selected is a bit of a worry but great result nonetheless]
It isn’t self selected. They have a database of 90,000 people, from that they do a weighting for demographics, and select the sample who are then polled.
[I was one of the people predicting 87 seats to Labor previously but according to Antony greens calculator if the 56/44 result holds on election night the score would be:]
I think Labor will get 53 on election night. About the same as what they got in 1983.
I think the last time a party got 56 was the landslide to Holt in 1966.
It is a twice in a century event, I just don’t think it is going to happen.
Steven Twigg is a noob, and he lost his seat in the next election.
#47 GetReal
Champion stuff mate, I tips me lid and bows to you, bloody well done champ.
Glen @ 61. No he didn’t. So you’re either lying or stupid. Which is it?
We all rip on the GG, but lets face it.
Come 24 November, we can all laugh in its face. Like this HAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
People keep saying “Rudd has to do this, Rudd has to do that”.
Wrong. The electorat’s mind is made up. A year of continuous polling is the proof.
The only thing Kev needs to do is defend. Not be caught up in some terrible scandal.
Labor will win, I am calling it. And my word, will I ever celebrate.
By the way, the limericks and haikus on this site have been hilarious and brilliant, keep em up.
Stand corrected in 2005 he lost.
[Glen @ 61. No he didn’t. So you’re either lying or stupid. Which is it?]
He can’t choose between the two without lying.
Still it is a Tory seat now Voterboy.
Glen @ 65. That’s correct. But you still haven’t answered my question. Are you a liar or just stupid?
I hope we don’t get any more fabricated stories helping the Liberal party.
I’m sure some journalists and editors would appreciate the irony of being invited to a star chamber examination after the election.
Sometimes Glen has some very valid points to make, sometimes he’s just blatantly waving the liberal flag. Everyone does it here, for whichever party they support.
Sometimes I feel sorry with the treatment he gets, because its not always justified.
But then I remember how I felt in 1996, then again in 1998, then again in 2001, and again in 2004.
Ricky the only uncertainty I have left is where and how to party 🙂
Neither.
If anybody is interested the biggest swing in the last 50 years was to Whitlam the election before he won government of around 7.5%. The next biggest swing was against Whitlam three elections later. Could it be Turnbull13.
Glen reminds me more of Dr Strangelove all the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iesXUFOlWC0
Especially when he calls Howard “uncie Howie”.
Glen @ 72. Given that the safest answer would have been ‘both’, I’ll take that as an admission that you’re a liar.
Can someone start a “people power” campaign AGAINST sub editors writing misleading headlines like the ‘oz’ today “Red tape strangling AWA’s” when in fact the ACTUAL story was about statistics showing 1/2 AWA’s decreased existing worker’s wages ????
ShowsOn i can’t remember who said it first but it wasn’t me and i merely used it to show that lefties stupidity.
JTV story on Young Volunteers in Bennelong.
http://abc.net.au/jtv/video/FRIDAY.htm?clip=youngvolunteers
That is your opinion voterboy, but i thought you believe all tories were liars?
[That is your opinion voterboy, but i thought you believe all tories were liars?]
Oh no! Glen has just said the liars paradox!
You say “All tories are liars”
Does this mean they are liars? Or, since you are a tory, does it mean you lied, and they aren’t all liars?
Tories are too post-modernist for my liking this week.
Glen @ 79. My next door neighbour is a Tory councillor. Great bloke. My younger daughter’s Godfather is a senior Liberal Party staffer. You’ve even see me refer to him on here from time to time. He’s a fine, fine man. I even have friendly relations with Liberal and National MPs. My former boss was a big fundraiser for the Liberal 500 Club, and we used to joke about how hopeless Howard was in dealing with Hanson.
No, Glen, I’ve never said all Tories are liars, I’ve never given the impression that all Tories were liars, and I’ve often made it clear on here that I don’t believe that.
You, however, are a liar.
If i am a Tory ShowsOn what does that make you?
The long-suffering loyals in the Howard camp will be watching with alarm as ‘their man’ flounders on the trail and the polls continue flatlining. Mistakes and wrong-footedness will become more frequent as they lose their nerve in anticipation of the whole thing ending in tears. Soon they will start breaking ranks, dishing up the dirt on their fellows, scrambling to redeem themselves from the slip down the slippery slope.
[If i am a Tory ShowsOn what does that make you?]
I’m a libertarian.
I think the government is too big both in terms of economics and social issues.
I think the government should spend our money more wisely, and should get out of lots of areas of social interaction such as censorship, and other forms of regulation.
What do you believe in, cos the coalition doesn’t seem to believe in anything anymore.
What proof do you have that i am a liar voterboy?
When have i deliberately lied to you?
Rx, I’ve got my popcorn 🙂
ShowsOn, I take it you’ve read “The High Price of Heaven”. Says it all about how Howard has tried to turn us backwards socially.. Back to the relaxed and comfortable 50s (puke).
Glen @ 85:
Well, I could say…
“it’s no one statement that totally, well very rarely, is it one statement that totally sort of, adumbrates the whole thing. It’s the aggregate impression.”
And it’s the aggregate impression of a liar, a misleader, a dissembler, a falsifier, a peddler of falsehoods, untruths and mendacity.
Hey, but that’s just my opinion.
[What proof do you have that i am a liar voterboy?
When have i deliberately lied to you?]
Glen! Where’s your name on the petition!?
This is about the rematch – Keating V Hewson – on Lateline!
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
[ShowsOn, I take it you’ve read “The High Price of Heaven”. Says it all about how Howard has tried to turn us backwards socially.. Back to the relaxed and comfortable 50s (puke).]
I haven’t read that, but I’ve read Marr’s other book on children overboard.
AC comes through with the goods. Lovely set of numeros!
Roll on 24th. Soowee, I am going to have a big one!
Howard ???????
Has trouble with speaking straight and not a nice PM.
???????
chinese characters wont come through…too bad.
85
Glen Says:
November 10th, 2007 at 2:17 am
What proof do you have that i am a liar voterboy?
When have i deliberately lied to you?
{enter south park music}
“dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb”
Who’s at the keyboard now – Kina or Mrs Kina?
Howard actually promised this to the Australian Children’s Telivision Foundation earlier this year and was meant to be announced during the Budget.
[PRIME Minister John Howard will today pledge $82 million to establish a dedicated children’s TV channel.
Mr Howard will announce the new ABC channel to appease worried parents, News Ltd newspapers reported.
The ABC would receive $82 million over four years for the digital channel if the Government is re-elected on November 24, News Ltd said.
The channel would operate 15 hours a day and deliver age-appropriate material for pre-school and school age children and teenagers aged up to 17.
Half the funds would go towards commissioning new entertainment and educational content and the rest spent on buying existing programs.]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22734450-5005361,00.html
http://www.allenandunwin.com/default.aspx?page=94&book=9781865084220
[Howard actually promised this to the Australian Children’s Telivision Foundation earlier this year and was meant to be announced during the Budget.]
Let me guess – more road funding for Seasame Street?
😛
Mrs Kina is snoozing on couch… not well tonight. I do some Chinese as well.
I agree that government should spend our money wisely, i think there needs to be some level of censorship in society but it doesn’t need to be ultra strict. I do think the Coalition believes in something, they’ve not sold themselves as well this time round mind you neither has Labor but that doesn’t really matter now.
I am your classic Tory but i differ from some Tories on some social issues when it comes to abortion and stem cell research i am in support of these measures. I believe in freedom, to choose the school you want for your kids, the childcare you want, the car you want to drive, how you spend your money i am a big believer in tax cuts and giving the people the choice as to how they spend their own money they can do a better job than government. The less government interference the better when it comes to affecting my life that’s what i want. I am a big believer in privatisation and an even bigger believer that the market should play an increased role in providing services not the government, if the market and business can do a better job they should be allowed to get on with the job (private health insurance, private schools).
I also believe that schools should teach politics and legal studies to all students from year 8 to 10, there must be a way of teaching people politics without one side saying we’re brainwashing the other i think it is important because so few people actually give a damn about happens in politics and they should.
I am a strong believer in the ANZUS alliance and a close relationship with the US regardless of who is President. I am a supporter of FTA’s even though they aren’t always perfect but when it comes to tariff reductions i think this can only occur if there is a level playing field and all countries reduce their tariffs. I am as you know a fan of nuclear power and have been for years, but that is not the silver bullet to our troubles and i agree more needs to be down with renewables.
I support what we are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, i believe history will look favourably on us for what we’ve done providing we don’t leave before the job is done. I am all for leaving but only when conditions on the ground merit it otherwise we’d be doing what Osama wants.
I am not a Christian Conservative and i dislike the fact so many ‘religious’ people are on our side of politics about the only thing they and i agree on is regarding gay marriage and gay adoption i am in favour of neither but have no problem with civil partnerships or giving them the same economic rights as hetro couples. I don’t think we should ratify Kyoto but i do think we need to ratify a new agreement with China, India and the US involved and i think nuclear energy can help us here and at least play a part. I am a big believer in having standards for teachers and their pay tied to this because i believe we should be rewarding good teachers for the hard work they put in and the results they get.
I am sure there is more, but look what we really should do is despite all our political differences we should find the half a dozen things we actually agree on ShowsOn.