Senate and Page polls

Morgan has published a survey of Senate voting intention aggregated from its polling over October. As usual the minor party figures look a little inflated, while major party support reflects the slight improvement the Coalition seems to have managed during the campaign. We also have a poll of 300 voters in Page conducted by Grafton’s Daily Examiner and Lismore’s Northern Star, which they stress is “not intended to be scientifically accurate”. It shows Labor’s Janelle Saffin with a decisive primary vote lead over Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis, 44 per cent to 41 per cent. A poor level of recorded support for the Greens is not of interest in itself, but it elicits an admission from candidate Theo Jongen that the party’s vote is “running at six per cent”, compared with 10.8 per cent in 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Senate and Page polls”

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  1. Steph, when I went to school we had a Vic 20 i think it was called… then we upgraded to the Commodore 64. I was a special class taken instead of arts and crafts i think. but then it was 1982.

  2. “Why is it racist to acknowledge the traditional owners of Australia? If the High Court of Australia recognises the traditional owners, why can’t the general population?”

    ABC had a story of Howards intervention task force recognition of aboriginal values. They built a toilet block on a sacred site.

  3. Oooooo – that nasty Rudd and his “American campaign techniques.”
    Someone at Coalition H.Q should start the dialling machines so that Howard’s recorded voice can annoy the crap out of everyone at dinner time as he calls to tell tham that he doesn’t like American campaigning techniques.

  4. David Speers is a lightweight gimp, who has been elevated far above his station by the fact that Howard and the Liberals cottoned on early to the idea of having a free live-to-air platform to spin their talking points.

    The Libs have got him on side by giving him easy access to Howard and other ministers at a moment’s notice. And in the quid pro quo that is media management Howard-style, he gets access; they get a glove puppet.

    Skynews is an unreconstruted bastion of craven messengers from Murdoch. It will be interesting to see if its star falls should Labor win the election, because it’s going to find that being buddies with the Opposition won’t do it any good at all.

    Expect to see Speers as an Opposition press flak (although paid for it this time).

  5. Bird. I think little steps are needed. After going in one direction for 11 years, you can’t “jerk” the country in another. Latham showed how disruptive this is. Change unsettles people. Your need to win confidence and then introduce change.

  6. Re Shanahan and The Narrowing: none so blind as those that will not see.
    But ultimately it’s good they keep spinning this crap. We don’t want any complacency now.

  7. Blindoptimist

    Interesting point re oil prices and inflation. However if demand is still there, and the oil price rises so far have not exactly had a downward effect on real wages, then increased prices will have a knock on effect to inflation… at leat in the short to medium term until demand is driven down. In our economy, with nearly full employment, wage growth will still be a factor.

    Socrates

    The closer it get’s the more worried I become. The MSM really are a law unto themselves and as you can see with the distortion today over Newhouse they will be pulling out all stops for the next week to derail the K Train.

  8. Yes, I remember in primary school when they wheeled in the BBC… we all took turns drawing a square 3 [return] 90 degrees [return] 3 [return] and so on… then they wheeled it out and we never saw it again.

  9. 691 Lose the election please It’s the greatest socialist invention and learning tool ever seen, which is pretty ironic really as it was invented by those control freaks in the army. Thanks guys.

  10. LTEP,

    Sorry LTEP but I don’t buy any of that. Any teacher who can’t teach kids more with computers than without, even on Maths, has no imagination.

  11. Chris B, I’m not a computer genius but I can get by. Your point was?

    I’m just stating my point of view. Computers can only get you so far in a lot of subjects. The rest of it you need good teachers. To get good teachers you need to pay them well and give them incentives to stay in the profession (and yes… it is a profession). Computers for each student won’t solve this problem, which I think is the biggest problem facing education.

  12. No James @ 866 I would never do that – beyond the pale. Bolt’s enough, but he can call a spade a spade. I have previously referred to him as a thinking person’s Piers Akerman.

  13. Some earlier commenters have been bagging the new one-computer-per-student policy — saying that it wouldn’t help with the study of maths, or other subjects.
    I admit here that it won’t necessarily improve kids’ specific performance in maths, etc.

    But that’s not the point. Coming from a family of teachers, I know that the inequality out there between private and public schools is just OBSCENE. A huge proportion of kids from low income families are being disadvantaged because their computer skills are below par. It completely ruins their chances of having a shot at tertiary education or further training in hundreds of vocations now that rely on being computer literate.

    I think it was a touch of genius.

  14. I don’t really get the private school fee argument – Howard’s $800 rebate will surely push the fees up anyway? I wonder if the Libs will say Labor is forgetting about the private schools ala Latham?

  15. To anyone that saw or heard the ALP launch – can you confirm how much each of the new university research positions would be worth? I thought I heard $40k each in the launch but ABC newsradio just said it was at $140k each.

    I can’t find this detail mentioned on any of the newspapers’ websites yet.

  16. Bobby Horry. I think these policies are for all schools. Its just by luck that most private schools will have computers already. But Rudd can say its computers for all that need them.

  17. Middle Man 861

    Yes, that’s true. But I still think that Labor is not really presenting that much of an ideological alternative but something is better than nothing…we have been moving to the right for 25 years, since neoliberalism came in..I know I am asking for a bit much…but think maybe will be back to Labor in about 30 years!!

  18. Ok Paul K… feel free to go into a classroom and teach trigonometry proof techniques using a computer. How about a programme that will teach matrix multiplication better than a whiteboard/blackboard will? List 10 effective programmes that will have a real impact on maths skill levels.

    As I keep saying, all the computers in the world mean nothing without teachers. To be honest what I want is a government who will attempt to solve problems, rather than just making politically popular moves. I’m not arguing computers for each student is bad… because it’s great. It’s just not the most pressing issue for education.

  19. To be honest, computers for schools is hardly a revolution.
    I was hoping for more – something about state and federal cooperation in forging the next wave of nation building…

  20. LTEP 870

    I don’t disagree with your sentiment here. It is clear that there is a desperate need to pay teachers more.

    However, i think that is a ‘step to far’ at this stage. Most punters do not see the education system the way your or i may and teachers pay seems to be rather devisive. Politically, pushing computers, rather than teachers pay, is far safer.

  21. Mike 862

    I agree MSM distortion is always a risk, but Labor has just got to stick to its message. Labor policy is sensible and there is clear evidence that following the current government and its spendaholic ways will only fuel inflation. The Reserrve Bank proved it a week ago for the sixth time (!) and they have already threatened to do it again.

  22. Middle man – agree, they are definitely for all schools. Just the perception that ill informed voters may make that because they do not get $800 rebate for school fees, Rudd is somehow ignoring private schools.

  23. Re. the $800 for fees – why can’t Rudd just say that it will force fees up, thereby leading to no real advantage for parents, whereas his they can spend on other measures to help.

    Re. encouraging teachers – did I hear that maths/ science grads get 50% HECS rebate if they go on to further study, and another 50% if they go back to teach in these areas?

    Isn’t that some sort of incentive to get more teachers on board?

  24. nah, that’d sound too much like one party totalitarian stuff, Michael. That’s how it would be played anyway, fit right into the occassional lib attack of don’t trust the nation to labor.

  25. Yes, the ABC obviously thought that it was more important to cover Howard’s launch. Still nothing on the major headlines on the website. There is one small link off to the side about Rudd attacking WorkChoices during the launch, but when you click on it, you get “page not found”.

    Hmm…

  26. Betamax (#873)
    Totally spot on observation – and yes, it was bloody genius.
    It’s a policy about opportunity for those who don’t have it now – who could argue with that?

  27. nah, State/Fed Labor co-operating – that’d fit too closely into the ‘don’t trust Labor with the Nation’ attack the libs have got going occassionally. Better to keep the one party totalitarian state away from the front page.

  28. LTEP

    Where did I say we should get rid of teachers or teaching aids or any techniques currently in use??? Now I know you really are on another planet. I didn’t hear Rudd say anything about replacing teachers or blackboards with computers. Show me where anyone said computers would replace anything currently being used. It’s an extra and important tool which the rest of the world is plugging into. Go back to the stone age.

  29. Yeah, thats the problem with Howard daft policies all round: they’re just private sector welfare. So the education fee reabte just means an $800 fee hike. The childcare subsidy going straight to childcare centres just means fee hikes. Prviate health rebate just m,eans 30% fee hikes.

    His whole policy paradigm is a joke for actual families – ABC Childcare, HIB and Geelong college love it of course.

  30. Fair point John… maybe I wake up to sky news and read the Oz too much. Although to be fair I must say I liked their little vid piece yesterday on the Moreton voter… I even recognised the house!

  31. Burgey, you can often get some alright scholarships if you are teaching in mathematics or science… however then you’re usually tied to a contract agreeing to teach wherever the government wants you to teach. Then you get sent to problem schools in remote locations. In other words… it’s not worth it.

    I’d advise people not to take an education scholarship. Also, to get permanency in the public school system you have to teach for at least a year in a rural area. To do this you have to cut your links to your close relationships (often your wife/husband and kids). For this reason a lot of people who study education actually end up not entering the profession, and the best graduates attempt to get into the private system.

    To me, the best way to encourage people moving into rural/remote locations is to offer huge salaries to those working in those areas. It would also attract experienced teachers to rural areas, and go towards improving educational standards.

    I think anyone that knows a teacher knows how serious the pay issue is compared to the amount of work and responsibility they take on. Particularly when you’ve got a degree that you can use to work in other professions for higher pay.

  32. I smell a potential Two-Step strategy here.

    If Labor win, then they’ll obviously be happy.

    BUT if the marginals hold up (and perhaps there is internal polling showing this could happen) then over the next 3 years:

    (i) Interest rates will continue to rise AND later we may see a China slowdown induced recession which Howard/Costello will be unable to avoid hitting Australia

    (ii) Rudd can say, I was the fiscal conservative in ’07. If the Libs had been as restrained as we wanted to be then interest rates wouldn’t have risen to X%. We would have been better insulated from the China slowdown.

    (iii) People will punish the Coalition for their economic failure and Labor win next time

    Let’s hope this is not what is behind it.

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