Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
New posts up on the Wentworth and Eden-Monaro polls.
[Society cannot exist without the economy. Wake up and smell the roses.]
But human societies did exist before the whole concept of economics.
You should read more than just your Butterworths Tort book.
IC More: Beautiful that will make them cry in their soup.
‘Just do the same with Liberal’ it’s getting late.
No 643
Pi, if you weren’t so deluded by your communist tendencies, perhaps you’d have more credibility.
We have every right to decide who comes into this country, who gets welfare and how they spend it, and more. This ridiculous notion that compassion, for compassion’s sake makes no sense at all. People need a good kick box up the butt in order to get back on track, not namby pamby compassion.
Yes Gary Bruce on the proviso that if we tories are out of office you will not turn this completely into a ‘bash the tories blog’, if its political debate you are after and an honest assessment of a Coalition or Labor victory and what lies in ahead i shall be here.
All these negative reports on AWA’s and still Hockey wont release his figures to debunk them!
WAGES in Victoria’s retail and hospitality industries are falling well below the norm under WorkChoices, a new study shows, as workplace power swings to employers.
And another study shows many small and medium employers think WorkChoices was designed to benefit big business, with a more complex industrial relations system resulting.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pay-survey-shows-bias-to-employer/2007/11/18/1195321608619.html
1. There’s an amusing promo for the Rove interview on You-Tube at
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=8GQznNCrJ9E
2. “Edward St John” @ 264 said
“Michael Crosby, Power at Work –
That book is very dangerous, basically advocates a return to a closed shop and admits organising employees is too hard.”
Really, Edward, if you have read that book you would know that it does the opposite – it criticises the closed shop and says that organising employees is essential. Such misrepresentation is very unbecoming of your namesake.
For those who came in late, I include some extracts from the 1993 obituary for the real Edward St John:
“Edward St John… was tireless fighter for just causes… He was appointed QC in 1956 and joined the Liberal Party at the age of 50. He was elected Member for Warringah during the Holt-Gorton years and frequently embarrassed his own front bench with his statements supporting social justice and opposing hypocrisy…He was an enemy of the extreme Right because he established the Southern African Defence Aid Fund to help victims of apartheid, and also an enemy of the extreme Left because of his anti-Communist stand…He was a genuinely independent thinker who held principle to be the basis of decision. As such, his unpopularity with his own party was inevitable, and dated from his first speech to Parliament…Ted St John devoted the last ten years of his life to research and writing for environmental causes.”
(http://lakepedder.org/resources/reflections/reflect2.htm)
If you’re going to use his name, please respect what he stood for.
3. Generic Oracle @466 says:
“Finally saw an ad idea from the Coalition that was really late coming, I expected it weeks ago. If the Libs had brains, they’d just blitz everything with the mantra “Do you really want Wall to Wall Labor?”,”
The reason that Australia is about to have ‘wall to wall Labor’ – an unprecedented event in this country – is that the values of the Liberal Party are now fundamentally at odds with the values of Australians, the former having shifted so far to the right.
The real Ted St John would not have approved.
Warning math lesson:
Let’s say there are N seats, then it possible to win an election with N/2+1 seats.
All a winning side need to have is a majority in these N/2+1 seats i.e. just over
50% of the vote.
So now lets say N=100, and each seat contains 10,000 electors.
Therefore the winning party would need just 5001 votes in 100/2+1 seats i.e. 51.
The remainder of the 49 seats could be theoretically be 100% for the other party!
Therefore the winning party would have overall 5001×51=255,051 votes, and the losing party would have 10000×49+4999×51=744949 votes. Therefore the party that wins has 25.5% of the vote and the party that loses has 74.5% of the vote. Using advanced maths stuff it turns out that in a system like ours it theoretically possible for a party to win with just over 25% of the vote.
William Bowe Says: 591
‘Bluebottle, whose hobbies include sending me threatening emails, has been utterly and irredeemably banned’
I have experienced, what I believe are called, flame emails. Extremely unpleasant.
I expect and understand, from my standpoint, at least, that certain niceties on the net, would be observed.
Particularly, on this site. Whereby William allows us opportunity, latitude, expression.
Abuse, not.
No 660
William is a decent bloke, no need to abuse him.
They tell me trolls bite even more at the turn of the tide. Explains why they are so busy tonight.
davo,
In theory many things are possible but in practise never happen. If you think our system can be bad try a first past the post like they have in Britain where you can can get huge swings based on minute percentage changes. Most governments in Britain do not get anywhere near 50% of the vote.
GP,
Crikey was not abusing anyone. You misread his comment.
No 662
Please don’t commit treason.
I was merely pointing out how labor won the popular vote in ’98 but lost the election with 51.5% of the vote. In our system the extreme theoretical end of this is that a party can win with just over 25% of the vote, this is why I reckon we should have a senate type voting system, or a Hare-Clarke system like Tasmania…
davo, Labor got 50.98% of the 2PP in 1998, not 51.5%.
Also, as discussed previously on this website, the 2PP was pushed up by One Nation preferences in rural seats with little chance of going Labor. Will this happen at this election? Possible, not likely.
If the Tory supporters of the morally bereft, really wish to make a big night of the 24th, then they should throw some of their “hard earned” (thankyou to the mad monk) down on a bet.
Both Sportingbet and Centrebet are paying in excess of $4.00 for a Tory win in some 13 seats.
Sportingbet have Labor as favourites in another 7 seats and a further 18 seats have odds of between $1.35 and $2.85 favouring the Tories.
Any chance you friend could provide some links to papers available on the web?
I should have said 13 Tory held marginal seats.
Yes – I’m confident that ratings will be up significantly.
“#
353
William Bowe Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Alan H, can we keep the abuse on a leash please.
i have loved this blog for some time now and i respect william’s attempt to minimise abuse – it’s just that the ignorance, racism and bigotry of some of the posters here is almost too much for us mere mortals .. here endeth the …
dito
Yes – this is where the economic impact kicks in – in the engineering, the manufacturing, the business services, and (from my domain) the software solutions. Its about new economy thinking.
Re-posting with nested comments.
Yes – this is where the economic impact kicks in – in the engineering, the manufacturing, the business services, and (from my domain) the software solutions. Its about new economy thinking.
Glen – what is puzzling to me is why the ‘liberal’ community are not getting behind climate change big time. The Australian contribution to the problem (perceived or real) is for all intensive purposes is insignificant – but the potential Australian leverage is very significant – we have an educated workforce and the potential to deliver solutions applicable to an international market. We can grow our local economy, expand business opportunities, improve our international standing, and even potentially move this nation to the collection of nations that make a difference. It just seems to me that this a win-win proposition. What am I missing?
Generic Person: Chances are that code I have written (and/or managed) has a direct impact on your quality of life or at least a one or more people in your immediate family. I would be really interested in hearing your qualified opinion on computer modeling in general – and from that, you specific concerns with respect to computer modeling as related to climate change.
No one should take a Morgan Poll seriuosly. They’re always off the mark. What is Labor and Coalition internal polling telling us? Anyone know?