Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
I’ll just take the 56% TPP and let you guys worry about the marginals.
I think Roy Morgan has shares in Poll Bludger and needed to keep the hits up by making stupid observations on seat by seat
Every time the real Kevin Rudd comes out in these sort of interviews, I REALLY like the bugger. The prepackaged “ALP Kevin Rudd TM” we’ve been seeing all election annoys me all the more when you see that he actually seems quite a decent bloke as is.
No one ever goes back and checks the marginal polls – when pollsters want to claim accuracy, its total primary and 2PP or nothing. The rest is bollocks.
Exactly, Grog.
Expect all 4 pollsters to release mega-samples of national TPP on Friday, as it will be those polls that everyone will remember…
Lord D #57
IF one wants to accept Morgan’s total figure 56% 2 PP covering 22 marginal seats & ignore the seat & state 2 ppp %’s ,
THEN one has to the SAME for Galaxy’s Poll which shows in total NATIONALLY over the 20 marginal’s polled as Labor 2 PP of 50.8% ie. only a 4.5% swing
IN TOTAL NATIONALLY , the difference between Morgan’s 56% 2 PP
vs Galaxy’s 50.8% 2 PP is disturbing (and defies logic)
Morgan do publish the figures they have on a seat by seat.
Go to thier home page and click the purple box and follow the links
Currently every Marginal has ALP ahead
even Canning is 49/51
I’ve only seen that annoying “ding” advertisement & anti-Workchoices here in Adelaide tonight.
I think its really time to drop the former – its is becoming very annoying – and replace it with something a bit more positive, forward looking & upbeat.
106- in WA I mean
In ACT the ALP since 8pm have run a lot of ads on Channel 10 (es I have Oz Idol on)- the whinging wendy one, the blue collar worker one and the street sign work-choices further one.
The Libs have had the $80b debt one, and the interst rates one on pretty high rotation, but not as many since 8pm.
Anyone with any insights into what tactics either party might use over the remaining campaign? Change in style of advertising for the remaing 2 days?
Aussieguru at 87
I’m already on record saying the same thing including Fisher.The north is coming over as well,both Herbert and Leichhardt are on the way over as well.Keep a close watch on Petrie,I think Gambaro is in for a real shock as will some other Coalition members.LOL!!!!!!
esj. are you now saying our bet is off? why ? chicken?
Did anyone catch the votingrecord ad?
Re wakefield. apparently Howard’s office is breifing journalists that the Coalition is ahead in internal polling for that seat.
Swing Lowe @ 104 – you’re right about that! I’ll wait with bated breath on Friday for those last marginal seats polls – after all there’s still 6 days to go until the election.
In this final week, Rudd has to forget everything else and go in hard on the climate. This issue will trump everything else the conservatives will throw at him. It’s his biggest trump card
I understand the sample is small, but the Victorian result tallies with current on the ground experience. Deakin, McEwen, La Trobe, and Corangamite are all close but will not get there. Deakin has a Your Rights at Work campaign, but Baressi is a tough nut to crack. Symon’s is a good candidate in any election other than one on Industrial Relations, and Labor is looking for 4.8% but not matching the government in local spending. McEwen doesn’t have a Your Rights at Work campaign, the Labor candidate is alright, but Bailey is a great campaigner and Labor is looking for a 7% swing. Jason Wood is the worst Liberal MP/candidate of the bunch, and will be the one to go. There is a Your Rights at Work campaign, and a good Labor candidate in Cox, but not enough work has been done at the Berwick end of the seat. Also, the former ALP candidate has stuck their head up too, and at 5.8%, this doesn’t help. Corangamite has an ancient Liberal MP, and should already be pencilled in, but the Labor candidate matches Jason Wood in terms of being very poor. Possibly, another candidate would have done much better. Gavan O’Connor is a problem here too. The margin is 5.4% and reports suggest Labor has been even more unsighted in the Geelong end of the seat than the Berwick end of La Trobe. It does have a Your Rights at Work campaign, which will get the margin down but this will not be enough.
As I am at another place, I did see commercial TV. On the Cricket, switched over to ABC. Einstein. And ABC from there.
Saw Labor ads, only.
Labor. Concise, to the point. Reality.
If there were LNP Ads, must have blanked out.
Just spoke to a friend who is fairly high in the C’wth public service. Very interesting. Apparently the department head is telling her to read papers by Tanner and Swan. She reports that her department has been in overdrive like never before – preparing for a new government.
Bodes well – but isn’t definitive I guess.
78 Paul,
No u r wrong I was the last post. Not the terms I offered so declined.
Interesting only libsrok took up my proposition no one else was prepared to put up or shut up that the Newspoll 2PP would be better than 53-47 for Labor. Interesting.
Wiliam is the terms I have negotiated with libsrok acceptable?
Luke Skywalker
Are you looking for Darth Howard?
GG@114,
If Wakefield is held by the Coalition, it will be one of the biggest upsets this election. I’ll give you a brief overview of the seat-by-seat betting on Wakefield at the major bookies:
Sportingbet: LAB $1.05/ LIB $7.50
Portlandbet: LAB $1.05/ LIB $8.00
Centrebet: LAB $1.04/ LIB $8.25
Btw, Centrebet has come down on the federal result from $1.19/$4.75 to $1.24/$4.10 today. Sportingbet has come down to (from $1.20/$4.50 to $1.22/$4.25)
GG @ 114.
Where’d you get that?
Sounds like nonsense.
Based on all publically available polling things would have had to change a massive amount overnight.
GG,
I bet that poll would be like that so-called Eden-Monaro internal poll they had in early September – a made up “qualitative” Crosby/Textor poll to keep the Liberal staff, campaign workers and backbench MPs morale up.
No, but I wish I could use the force to influence the result…
Luke @ 117
Ummm… Gavan O’Conner is in Corio up against Marles.
Triffid @ 110
No insights but a strong suspicion we’re in for a whole lot of non-core fear pandering policy announcements of the tough on ‘them’ variety from the LNP. Howard is chasing the wedge issue dragon. Labor will rely on variations of the successful ‘time is up’ message. Change of tactics at this stage is definitely only for the desperate.
I was down working with a branch of the public service in Canberra this week – and I can tell you that yes, they’re all working overtime, and they fully expect that there will be a change of government. Apparently Rudd really is serious about putting the machinery to work at full tilt before Christmas – there was even some talk about calling Parliament back in mid-December. (I don’t even know if this can be done legally – have all the Writs been returned?)
The biggest question on the minds of the various public service folks was: can they get all this legislation through the various review offices in time?
Telling, Samuel K, at 119.
Looks like, you betcha.
Someone referred to a Laurie Oakes article, Bulletin, Roof Top Strategy per Saigon, Labor much years ago, waterproofing. Earlier thread. Have a look.
Applicable, Libs?
mad cow – the votingrecord on Gary Nairn has got big play here – it’s one the ALP’s best.
But I think the bloke in the blue shirt saying “sorry mate, not this time” is the best.
esj. i gotta get ready & go to work i trust our bet is on. cya tommorow
120 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Don’t equate no response because of anything other than people ignoring you. Newpoll will be at least 55/45, and probably 56/44.
Perhaps it’s best to pay the following odds no mind. Afterall, Eden-Monaro is only a bellweather seat top-heavy with atheists, druggies, dole bludgers and Un-Australians.
Eden-Monaro (NSW) – Winning Candidate
KELLY, Mike (ALP) 1.12
NAIRN, Gary (LIB) 5.25
Labor ads are running heavily in the lead-up to Rudd’s appearance on Rove.
Labor’s tied with the Libs in Corangamite on Sportingbet – I think this the first time Labor has ever tied with the Libs in this seat on any betting site this election…
Is Ozymandias on site?
National Interest, ABC Radio, featured the seat today.
Rgee, yes, O’Connor is in Corio, but without knowing Geelong that well, I’m sure the buckets of mud he is throwing are wrecking the Labor name in the area. You can smell it in Melbourne, and therefore, you can probably smell it in Colac.
Oh, and Labor is up in Page on both Centrebet and Sportingbet now. I believe this is also the first time that this seat has “fallen” on any of the bookie sites…
ESJ – I’d have gladly taken the $100 bet, but the 6 rate rises since 04 have so eateninto my household budget that I don’t have a spare $100 to lob on what would otherwise be a sure thing.
Sorry to William, his site is well worth a donation.
Article from Fair News Australia
It’ll be a Labor Landslide
Any analysis based on past election results – as this one is – requires a rough estimate of what the final 2PP (Two-Party Preferred) vote will be. To do this, we will tabulate and graph the Newspoll results from 1993 to 2007, for the final 5 or 6 weeks in each campaign.
The tabular data looks like this:
See Link
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/58/1/
grog I saw the tail end of the votingrecord ad, this time aimed at Bob Baldwin. Did yours go “thinking of voting Bob Baldwin?.. think again” ?
First time I’ve actually seen a neg ad directly naming Bob. Are they gonna do more of these? How often are they running it in EM?
Speaking Of Darth Vader
Gough is looking a lot like Vader with his helmet off in the end of Jedi
yep mad cow – I might even checkout votingrecord.com.au
Ryan is in play for the ALP, national office is spending money here and dedicating resoures. this is a 10% plus seat so I would think Greater Brisbane Tory seats are in dep deep deep doo doos!!
From the http://www.votingrecord.com.au site, it seems that it’s going to be targeted against NSW and Queensland incumbents only. There’s no voting record on display for Coalition incumbents in other states.
Is this because Workchoices is biting more in these states than the others? Coz I reckon if they ran these voting record ads in Sydney on high rotation, it would be a sure-fire vote-winner…
Possum Comitatus Says:
Who will offer soft swingers free viagara? Adds a whole new meaning to “pork”.
I suppose the most encouraging thing for Labor supporters is that Rudd isn’t acting as he would be if they were not in front in a majority of seats. If they were behind he’d be acting more drastically, promising more money and hitting the marginals with lots of targetted spending. Instead this is what we’re seeing from John Howard. I have a feeling that if Labor thought they were behind we’d be seeing much more dramatic announcements coming from their direction and a lot less caution.
The most encouraging thing for Coalition supporters is that these marginal polls tend to at least allow the possibility that the swings aren’t occuring in the right places. It’s possible that the swings in one or two marginals per state are so high that it counters negligible swings in other seats. Couple this with polls we’ve seen of Lilley, Adelaide and Kingston (? I think) which show huge swings to Labor in their held seats and it certainly makes it a possibility that the Coalition could just scrape back in. Once again, this isn’t the most likely outcome, but certainly possible. I know I won’t be popular for acknowledging this but that’s fine with me.
Rudd’s on Rove
Rudd is on Rove now.
SL, odd