Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders

The Sunday Fairfax papers (see here and here) carry a Taverner poll covering mortgage holders only from Sydney and Melbourne, showing a 57-43 lead to Labor. There was apparently a similar poll published during the 2004 campaign which had the Coalition leading 54-46 among this group, but I can’t find any record of it. Seats in which this looks like bad news for the Coalition include La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen in and around Melbourne, and Lindsay, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur in the Sydney area.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders”

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  6. I love the Liberal policy of “self reliance”. Still sounds like “I’m alright, bugger you” to my ears. And don’t ask me where in the bible it says that, but I’m sure there’s a passage that can be bent to fit.

    vote 1: Atheism

  8. I look forward to the election being over and settling in to watch the post election blood baths. Its always more enjoyable to watch the internal bloodletting. And no doubt it will be Labor crowing and Liberal crying but really some of the posts are just pathetic, name calling etc by people like Observer and gay baiting from A and others this morning.

  9. Sounds like we’ll have to bring religious banners as well as cricket bats next Saturday. It is not just insulting that JWH invokes God in the final week of the campaign, it is dangerous. It doesn’t matter what spin is put, he has tried to make it a campaign issue for conservative religious (generally Christian) voters. I’m so sick of these tactics of trying to turn people against eachother.

    The only portent I see is one of a lightning bolt of realisation heading straight for one JWH, only diverting at the last milisecond to zap Hyancinth as well. Likely to be delivered next Saturday at around 8.15 pm ADST.

  14. ROTFL on todays wedges, which I can suggest many replies:

    Drugs wedge:
    Reply 1: how come a government that cares so much about our security has allowed a drugs problem to develop? Is Howard saying we should be tougher on all drug addicts as teh solution? Would he say that about the Bali nine?

    Reply 2: Maybe better policy and spending on social programs and health/education in the first place would have meant a smaller problem.

    Reply 3: Then again, we have had drugs and drug crime since the 60s. Does anyone actually have any evidence that it is worse now than 20 years ago?

    God wedge:
    Reply 1: its bad enough for Howard to think he can decide who and what is Australian and un-Australian, now he can decide who believes in God, or who God likes? A tad arrogant perhaps?

  16. Julie – who knows? I guess in the long run they just printed the junk, probably just some ‘sucker’ trying to make a buck as a small business because his real job was axed. The pamphlet is probably not widespread, as it is blatant union bashing. Via PO Boxes in a wealthy suburb, obviously targetted at small business. The Liberals were only game to put Loony Luffs name on it, and a Canberra address for him, but selected a local printing company.

  18. Just picking-up on something tht was said earlier on post eletion prospects for the Libs: “I would expect that the ‘uglies’ in NSW will move assert their influence. The Libs have pushed out the moderates to the point that their membership base has contracted to the ultra right…..so it’s going to be the dries vs the uglies fighting for control. Shades of Debnam in NSW.”

    Too right. At State level the Libs have moved further to the right after each successive defeat. Rather than reaching out for the Petro Georgious of the world, it’s been a case of grabbing for the nearest David Clark.

    They seem to be under the impression that filling the party with every nut-job extremist in sight will somehow improve their electoral chances.

    This sort of stuff, if repeated Federally after the 24th, will probably keep them in opposition for a generation, particularly if Rudd is halfway competent.

    As for New Aussie’s question at post 420: “Does anyone know……where coalition voters go to whip each other?”

    Absolutely.

    I would recommend Opus Dei: A choice hang-out for those keen on the gentle art of self-flagellation.

    Knock three times and tell ’em David sent ya.

  19. SMH:
    {Mr Howard said the policy would mean such offenders would not be able to spend their welfare money on hard drugs or indeed on drugs like tobacco and alcohol.}

    Mmm, it’s gonna be a cashless and eftpos free society of druggies. Somehow I doubt they’d be cash free for long, seeing as a significant proportion of the convicted would work in the sex industry and others will soon become expert at the Break and Enter.

    I agree BTW it’s aimed at the Greens, but it also has value as a wedge against Labor. (well, a piss-weak wedge at that).

    Actually they’d have to legislate that the druggies couldn’t have a bank account nor credit cards. Alternatively have the banks set up with a welfare officer and a list of the druggies:?

    “OK Mr X, we will now accompany you for your Attorney General sanctioned shopping day at Woolies, the Centrelink staff have refused to do this any more.”

    Unworkable, to say the least.

  21. [ShowsOn, it’s not a good idea to wedge your own party with religious/non-religious beliefs. No one has ever been able to put odds on God’s existence.]

    Yes you can. It more likely isn’t true because complex things come from simpler things, not the other way around.

    [You are also talking about a religion that’s based on the Bible, a text which clearly names God as a male. Anyhow, that’s just a red herring.]

    I don’t think The Bible can be used as an resource for accurate data.

    [Still, Howard’s got me curious: what relationship does he find between free enterprise and Christianity?]

    No idea.

  24. 414
    Big Blind Dave Says:
    November 18th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
    410

    Rudds response is to point it out as policy made in desperation and on the run. He believes the drugs problem needs addressing, but would want to make sure a plan that doesn’t put elderly at risk of increased crime as a result of increasingly desperate drug users having to turn to other means to supprt thier habbit.

    Yes,BBD, policy panic on the run!..Designed? to let deperate druggies Demonise pensioners.
    Better to ignore it as the vapid posturings of a wing nut.

  25. Libs move to the right on state level is crap in NSW.

    There is nothing wrong with the State Libs that a thorough clean out of logs cant fix. The question is whether the state libs have the brains and nous to do it. They have an awfully large number of logs like Federal Labor. IMO the fat guy should have used the last six months to at least orchestrate one or two bi-elections by getting some of those logs out via jobs from the federal govt whilst he had the chance.

  26. If I was Rudd and was asked who would I turn Gay for?

    My answer would be!

    That’s a tough one, but I think I have the best partner in the world so there is no one!

  27. [ Mr Howard said the policy would mean such offenders would not be able to spend their welfare money on hard drugs or indeed on drugs like tobacco and alcohol. ]

    I’ve lived in the United States and it looks like Howard wants to take us in their direction. In the US they punish dysfunctional people with drug problems instead of helping them and then they wonder why their crime rates are so high.

  29. [Yes you can. It more likely isn’t true because complex things come from simpler things, not the other way around.]

    So if we ignore for a moment the Second Law of Thermodynamics and assume that what you’ve said is true, how does this disprove the existence of God?

    [I don’t think The Bible can be used as an resource for accurate data.]

    That’s not what I said. Either Christianity is true or it isn’t. If it’s true, then God exists and is male. If it isn’t, God may or may not exist and may or may not be male. John Howard is taking the former view, so that’s the one we need to deal with. If Christianity is true, it needn’t point to the need for a Coalition government!

  30. ESJ [Its always more enjoyable to watch the internal bloodletting. ]

    LOL, very true, the post election fall outs are always the most interesting and humorous part of normally serious politics.

  31. [122
    Adam Says:
    November 18th, 2007 at 11:18 am
    I think we all know the real reason Pyne is having his wife send out letters. He is hoping that voters will say: “Oh, there is a Mrs Pyne, so it can’t be true what we hear…”.]

    Sweet Caroline is just takin’ care of beardness, Adam.

  32. Didn’t Tim Costello say that there was a moral choice to make on the basis of who would increase foreign aid to 0.5% (from memory)?

    And that party is the Labor party?

    hmmm, I ain’t sure about god (who/what/gender or flying spaghetti monster), but I’m sure many christians around Australia would take Tim’s word over the rodent’s any day.

  33. Of course the party that felt comfortable leaking a story about Kelly Hoare’s sexual proclivities to get her to shut up and accept her knifing in Charlton would feel very comfortable trading in gay smears too!

  35. Howard at a Korean church????

    Oh yeah, explaining how he deported an Aussie born kid to Korea and changed his name, and then tried to repatriate him again subsequently to a Korean orphanage all the while his father was illegally imprisoned.

    I hope it didn’t lose too much feeling in the translation!

  37. Further on Howard and God, this is his quote from SMH:

    “I’m not suggesting that God is either Liberal or Labor,” Mr Howard said.
    “He is neither.
    “But I am suggesting that the influence of Christianity in such policies as families, individual responsibility … personal choice and free enterprise sit very comfortably with the values of my party.”

    So two lines of questions:
    – Is Howard suggesting Liberal policies sit comfortably with Christianity, but not other religeons? Does Howard hate atheists?
    – Does Christianity promote free enterprise? What about charity to the poor? Does a rich man no longer have trouble entering heaven? And does that mean that Howard will never embrace policies of equal rights for gays? Aren’t they damned by god?

  38. Yes of course ruawake he had an enormous interest in doing so! What tosh ruawake.
    Labor clearly does a great line in personal attacks.

  39. [Of course the party that felt comfortable leaking a story about Kelly Hoare’s sexual proclivities to get her to shut up and accept her knifing in Charlton would feel very comfortable trading in gay smears too!]

    You mean against the member for Sturt?

  41. I cannot see where Howard thinks he’s going invoking God’s name in the campaign. I know that in the parish I was bought up in was much more good Samaritan than free enterprise.

    Costello on the other hand could repent and try to emulate Zacchaeus.

  42. [I cannot see where Howard thinks he’s going invoking God’s name in the campaign. ]

    Some where near the bottom of a barrel.

    Scrapping at the last few atoms in fact.

  44. A check of the Sydney TV guide for next Saturday night reveals all the major free to air stations other than Ten plan a continuous coverage of the Federal election. If (as most of us suspect) Mr. Rudd becomes Australia’s twenty sixth prime minister, it will be a case of life imitating art. Ten are running the fifth episode of the Star Wars franchise which is very appropriately titled ‘The Empire Strikes Back’.

  45. I put the Morgan Statet results into Antony’s calculator

    I’m scratching my head to work out how they are saying the election can’t be called:

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=0&nsw=8.8&vic=4.8&qld=13.9&wa=-3.1&sa=6.6&tas=9.9&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1

    Help me out people, I’m confused. I know that Morgan hasn’t got the same rep, but I’m trying to work out how they are saying it is close…..

  46. Man, The libs campaign is really disintegrating. In the last two weeks we have seen the campaign range from:

    – Rights for Orang Utans
    – Stick it up the druggies
    – God loves the libs
    – Global warming aint gonna kill ya

    Howard just doesn’t get that vision thing now does he.

  47. BMW 456 – Polls change from election to election (changing demographics, methodology etc), and can be all over the place, but history shows that they tend to settle to a 48-52 split at booth time. So 55 would be fairly extraordinary. You have to come at this by saying that the polls only indicate a basic intention either side of the 50% line – after that you have to look for empirical indicators separate from polls.

    As usual its stuff like the politicians’ body language, the shift in editorials, rudd replacing latham, and special factors like candidate stuff-ups, betting markets, etc.

    In 07, these certainly are agreeing with the ALP trend in the polls. So I’m thinking maybe 53%. That would be quite big enough by historical standards. But 55% no way.

    Anyway, whatever the outcome, my advice is not to slash your wrists or go dancing up the street naked on Sunday.

  48. Queensland: 13.9% swing to the ALP in the four key marginal seats surveyed. The swing required to lose each is Bonner 0.6%, Moreton 2.8%, Blair 5.7% and Longman 6.5%.

    He He He. 🙂

  49. Danny of catch the fire blamed the drought on Australia’s sinfulness and gods punishment for this. He was urging a national day of prayer for rain and a vote for the party that would please god so that rain would fall.

    Funny enough, he was talking about voting for Howard and Costello, but another way of looking at it is the actions of Howard and co, who have been in as long as the drought. Remember drought broke last time when Hawkie was elected.

  50. RE post 525
    with the extreme right takeover of the libs there is indeed a problem
    people in the liberal party have said the same thing
    eg Mr Brogden….. if nsw politicians retire they will be replaced by those
    owing loyalty to Mr Clarke….. witness the Mitchell preselection
    These people are just too extreme !!!

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