• Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin in The Australian:
ALP polling in Victoria last week suggested Labor would be lucky to win a seat in the state, meaning that the bulk of the 16 seats the party needs for victory will have to come from NSW and Queensland … Senior Labor officials last night maintained there was a continuing swing to the ALP, as evidenced by the published polls, but said it remained a tight contest in marginal seats across the country. “There is no question we will win seats in NSW and Queensland, the question is how many,” a senior Labor source said … Victorian Liberals and Labor sources suggest extrapolations of up to six seats being won in Victoria are unlikely. Last week, Labor polled the five most marginal seats of La Trobe, Deakin, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan with a sample of 350 voters in each seat. Labor sources stressed the ALP was not in front in any of the Victorian marginals held by the Coalition. Liberal sources said Labor was finding it difficult to get above the “high water mark” of Labor support in Victoria but they believed three or four seats were still very close … Playing down expectations in NSW, some Labor officials are suggesting a net gain of four or five seats would be a good result. The published polling in Queensland also suggests the high expectations based on Labor’s overwhelming two-party-preferred lead of 10 points for most of the past year have been tempered with the latest estimates of only three or four seats … In the Northern Territory, the Country Liberal Party’s Dave Tollner is expected to benefit from the Coalition’s intervention in the Northern Territory and hold his seat, despite it being one of the most marginal in the country.
• Gerard McManus in the Herald-Sun:
Depending on the tightness of the result next Saturday this could still mean that WA, which is three hours behind the east, may determine the final outcome very late on Saturday night. But Labor insiders remain quietly confident the result will be known well before that, with New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland likely to deliver sufficient seats for it to take government. Optimists inside Labor believe the party can take up to three to five seats in South Australia, up to eight in Queensland, and six to eight in New South Wales. And some super-optimists say Labor could take 11 or 12 seats in NSW, including the mortgage-strapped seats of Greenway (11 per cent) and Macarthur (11.1 per cent) … But based on the earlier, more conservative prediction Labor would achieve a comfortable majority of about six seats based on winning its required 16 seats in Queensland, SA and NSW, and also picking up the two Tasmanian seats, one or two in either Victoria or WA, and the Northern Territory seat of Solomon, which both sides expect to go to Labor. Interestingly, Labor is not banking on winning any seats in Victoria because it already holds a majority of the seats in the state, but will not be surprised to see up to three fall “if the swing is on” … An analysis of the critical 30 marginal seats suggests that Labor can still be certain of a definite gain of only a dozen seats and that even the best pundits have no idea of the result in some seats. For example, predicting the outcome in the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong, often quoted as a possible or even likely Labor gain after a redistribution cut the PM’s margin to just 4 per cent, has been hampered by the reluctance of Chinese and Korean voters to talk to pollsters. “We have no idea who they will vote for because they simply refuse to co-operate – they are suspicious of polls and questionnaires,” one NSW Labor worker told the Herald Sun this week. Many expect Mr Rudd’s fluency in Mandarin to have impressed Chinese nationals and ABCs (Australian-born Chinese), but others say Chinese typically respect elderly and incumbent leaders. Similarly, Malcolm Turnbull’s affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth has been buffeted by several controversies, including the legitimacy of Labor candidate George Newhouse. Labor insiders say they will be surprised if Mr Turnbull is not returned.
• Jennifer Hewett in The Australian:
The strong anti-union message from the Government was resonating into the idea of whether it was worth taking the risk on economic management. Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter. The surge to Labor in South Australia abated. Braddon in Tasmania was no longer looking so much like a near certainty for the ALP. Queensland could only really guarantee four seats rather than six. Victoria was not looking likely to produce any wins at all … in Queensland the estimate from both sides is a probable loss of four government seats (Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert) to six seats (Leichhardt, Forde or just maybe the new seat of Flynn despite the anger there over council amalgamations). In NSW, the estimate is about five seats to Labor but with great nervousness about Eden-Monaro and a little nervousness about Page. Labor is not including Wentworth or Bennelong on its likely list. In Victoria, Labor is not confident of winning any seats, where effective government MPs will be trying to hold out against the tide. In South Australia, both Liberals and Labor expect a loss of three Coalition seats but no more. In Tasmania, Bass looks as if it is gone from the Liberals, but there are different views about whether the Liberals will hold Braddon. In the Northern Territory, the Liberal Country Party’s David Tollner will be trying to hold out against Labor in a typically tough-knuckled fight. And then, of course, there’s WA, where the likeliest outcome, as of this weekend, is a possible loss of Cowan – where the popular Labor MP is also retiring – balanced by a Labor pick-up in Hasluck. But absolutely no guarantees of anything.
• Andrew Burrell wrote in Friday’s Financial Review that Liberal polling showed them narrowly ahead in Stirling, whereas Labor’s had the two parties “virtually deadlocked”. Labor sources are said to be “extremely confident” of winning back Hasluck.
• Google has now added polling booth locations to its magnificent Google Maps election feature.
• Complete results from the weekend’s EMRS poll of the five Tasmanian seats available here.
• Simon Jackman has laid his predictive cards on the table.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian gives an overview of the Sunday papers’ record on editorial endorsements, but the good bit is not included in the online article. Here it is:
Sunday Telegraph (News Limited, Sydney): 1998 Howard, 2001 Beazley, 2004 Howard, 2007 Rudd. “The Sunday Telegraph accepts readers believe it is finally time to give Labor a go. But Mr Rudd needs to guarantee our nation several things. He must stare down a Labor cabinet inhabited by many with union and factional allegiances … Mr Rudd must surround himself with a loyal team that will help him deliver on his promises“.
Sunday Herald Sun (News Limited, Melbourne): 1998 Howard, 2001 Howard, 2004 Howard, 2007 Howard. “It is time. Not to change governments, but to resist temptation. It is time to acknowledge that the Coalition is the safe bet in a political contest in which the new, despite its superficial allure, offers less than the familiar”.
The Sunday Age (Fairfax, Melbourne): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 None; 2007 No call. “On the contenders’ ‘exposed form’, The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other”.
The Sun-Herald (Fairfax, Sydney): 1998 N/A; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “The Sun-Herald says voters face a tough choice but our endorsement is for the Labor Party. Team Rudd gets our final tick on the strength of its fresh vision for education”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Adelaide): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “Now is not the time to move into untested waters, particularly as the world economy comes under strain next year. The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years”.
Sunday Times (News Limited, Perth): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “The Sunday Times believes change for change sake is simply not an adequate trigger to throw out a Coalition Government which, while far from perfect, has overseen record prosperity in WA and the nation”.
Sunday Mail (News Limited, Brisbane): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “There is undoubtedly a mood for national renewal and there is a need for national renewal. Mr Rudd has demonstrated he has the potential to undertake that task effectively”.
Bailey $4.50 @ Sporting Bet? I got him a $7.00 only yesterday.
Go you good thing, Mike.
cossie and howie coming up on today tonight – hahahah
Personally I’m hanging out for another Lilley poll. No doubt we’ll see the narrowing which demonstrates Swan is unfit to manage our TRILLION dollar economy.
Yep, confirming Sportingbet odds in North Sydney:
Hockey $1.15
Bailey $4.50
Labor now have a better chance of winning North Sydney than Gippsland.
Lindsay Voter 98
Would like to see how the other 89,998 voters in Greenway vote before I don the Speedos
Now that would be a gross sight!!!! LOL
BV I got on him on Saturday @ $7.00 North SYd has been my no-logic smokey. I admit i let out a bit of a whoop when I watched the Nine news.
But still.. wait till newspoll…
what do pelpe make of the ALP “insiders” comments about polling in Victoria – on the money or just playing down so as to not look over-confident?
I watched both of the commercial news bulletins in syd and they were both ads for labor – momentum is an amazing thing – issues covered were debnam’s remark that the libs should have ratified Kyoto (with Howard looking like he was gonna cry when the journalists put the question to him), the govt cover up over early plans for a workchoices mark 2, Howard saying that definitely Costello will succeed him and that workchoices was a done deal that couldn’t be changed.
Things are going very smoothly. Labor would be keen to dampen expectations with this leaked internal polling since even the govt is playing hard on the hubris/they think they’ve already won it line.
Howard is looking more desicated every day and there’s no doubt a sympathy vote out there for an old man in distress.
That’s a massive movement on Baily in the space of 5-10 minutes!!!
Re JWH’s absence from the marginal seats (except his own) – maybe the MPs elsewhere see his presence as a negative? It would fit with the ‘I’m a local member, not a Liberal’ theme of their campaign.
Labor is going to win.
Liberal is going to lose.
Lindsay Voter 98
Where are the HTV cards? On Labors website?
I’m not going by that order, but I am curious what order they put them in….
Don’t know what happened then?
How can the Coalition be a bad Government if the Kevin Rudd promises to be an economic conservative and run the economy the same way as the Coalition?
How can it be a bad Government that is out of touch if the Kevin has copied 22 of the JWH’s policies and said that he seeks JWH’s advice if he needed it?
Anna Coren just said this on the TT interview with Howard and Costello:
“Prime Minister you are one of the most successful Prime Ministers in history….”
Geez, what an entertainer.
Newspoll (if there is one tonight) prediction:
Can’t go past 54-46, but a 55-45 is possible too.
Why would it be anything else?
Movement to Bailey on Centrebet – he’s into $4.85 from about $7 on the weekend.
What’s this talk about 7 obtaining a document about plans to push WorkChoices further but being injuncted???
John of Melbourne:
Iraq, AWB, Hicks, Haneef, Kyoto, FOI, Regional Roads Funding Scheme, Workchoices, Immigration bungles, incompetence, lack of accountability and corruption = bad government
let me know if you need any more help
Well, to be fair, Anna Coren is giving Pete and John as much of a free hit as Rove gave Kev last night.
Not being fair, what a great big load of bullsh#t.
JOM,
Just watch how it is done after Saturday.
Hahahahaha….. Costello looks like he “really” wants to be sitting there with JHo.
Sorry John, just like JH carping on about Keating, Rudd will have 12 long years of blaming everything in this universe on Howard’s refusal to plan for the future. And everyone will believe it too 🙂
Anna just asked them if they are mates. Big YES from both of them. And I have to try and eat my tea after this shit.
Anna Coren.. So far this might be the softest interview in Australian political history.
You see that look on Costello’s face. It is the look of someone imagining John Howard with no clothes on.
7 news lead story FOI rejected on government documents showing the next wave of workchoices changes.
Um – what were you guys expecting from a TT interview? Hard-hitting journalism??? 😛
I can’t wait to see what the Chaser does with Anna Coren on Wednesday night. All they need to do is put a great big pair of butt#cks on screen and have Anna kiss them.
119 Asanque-Bingo!
Back to Kyoto, I read that, contrary to popular opinion, there are THREE countries to sign but not ratify Kyoto. The US, Australia and Kazakstan. The coalition of the Ignorant and Greedy! If the Roednt gets back in and Turnbull is rolled, perhaps Borat could be our new Environment Minister.
So what’s the high water mark in NSW? What seats are we ruling out of contention?
I’ll start with the obvious ones. The Nats will not lose Lyne, Parkes or Riverina and the Libs will not lose Farrer, Mitchell, Mackellar or Bradfield. I, personally, will rule out Calare from the Nats and Warringah, Hume, Berowra and Cook from the Libs. Does anyone disagree with these five?
That leaves Cowper and Page from the Nats and Parramatta, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell, Paterson, Robertson, Hughes, Gilmore, North Sydney, Greenway and Macarthur in the frame. Anyone disagree?
That today tonight interview with smirk and rodent is the most wincingly scychophantic suck job I’ve encountered for a long time:
She’s even quoting fukcing Alan Greenspan’s praise of them. “youre so great, you’re so respected, can you believe that people are thinking of voting you out’…I’m off to purge..
Anna Coren is asking the hard questions on Today Tonight. Pfft!!!
Anna Coren has redefined dim-wittedness, even by the standards of commercial current affairs. Tracey Grimshaw at least produced some news. That was truly abysmal.
How much did the Libs pay for this ad on Channel 7 with Anna Coren?
Charlie,
I would also rule out Hughes, Gilmore and probably Macarthur. Ordinarily, I would have included Greenway with this bunch, but the fact that Howard campaigned there last weekend gives me some doubt about that…
After that I can understand how Anna’s boss referred to her as a “performer” in last weeks court case with the Chasers. Couldn’t they have got a bigger chair for The Gimp? He didn’t look very “comfortable”
Iraq = Ruddy voted for the war as well! The situation there is getting better and in time it will be seen as a policy triumpf
AWB = Cost of doing business in Iraq, in many places you have to grease the wheels to sell something. As for emails to Downer etc… didn’t Rudd not know about emails in his own office?
Kyoto = Without China and US it’s a joke
Regional Road funding = yes you have a point here but since when are ministers beholden to their departments? Departments are beholden to their ministers.
Work choices = jury still out.
Immigaration = thats always a tricky one for both sides.
Lack of accountability = the people wanted the Coalition to have control of both houses.
Corruption = I don’t deny that there isn’t any as power corrupts.
69 John of Melbourne – can you explain to me how what happened in Ireland can be equated with the situation here. Do they have compulsory boting. Do they have preferential voting. Did Ahern try and impose a much didliked IR system on his people?
Re 129,
Charlie Says:
My money says Warringah will fall. Other than that, I am with you on the rest 🙂
The thing about the TT interview: how to see it from the point of view of the ordinary punter. Did it look like two has-beens desperately pleading to stay on, using worn out scare tactics? Or did it come across as two blokes with a proven track record making some telling points about the risks of change?
I’m glad I hadn’t eaten before watching Howard and Costello on TT. Bloody awful and sickening.
Very well put Sean. It saved me looking for the right words. Can’t wait for Saturday to see those two slimey bastards gone – along with the rest of them.
We’ll see what Costello’s got to say about his good mate John then.
#129: Could someone who is more closely acquainted with Calare please give an assessment of the chances that Gavin Priestley, who received the endorsement of the now-deceased former member Peter Andren, might keep the seat in independent hands and out of the National Party’s?
Wonder if the ALP war room is at this moment brainstorming some nice new attack ads built around “Workchoices Mk II”?
Or — and stop me if I’m being paranoid — is this possible the document could be all Tory set up?
Nah — Wkchoices #2 sounds way, way too plausible.
Whoever’s watching TT, has Coren given it any mention?
Swing Lowe re #42.
They were, and still are, offering the best odds of the three heavyweight bookies for the coalition that I am tracking. The fact that they have not eased labor indicates that they are being cautious.
I think (I can’t believe I heard it) Coren even referred to an “economic uptopia” (bet that’ll play well to the TT viewers struglgling to pay off their mortgage…)
Anna Coren is just being polite, its the first time she’s had that kind of attention, she doesn’t want to offend them 🙂
I’m sure Rudd would also get a pretty soft go.
Swing Lowe @ 134,
I agree Gilmore is looking unlikely. I think Hughes is a seat that is slipping under the radar. It would be WorkChoices and rates-sensitive. With a margin of less than 9%, I think it’s in play. Macarthur is an *outside* chance of being the seat with the biggest margin to fall. Labor has been talking it up a bit, but that might just be to get under the skin of the Liberal rank and file.
Bailey is down to $4.75! dang!
I live in North Sydney and judging by the amount of junk mail etc I’ve had from Joe Hockey I would say he’s worried.
I estimate he will get back in with a swing about 5-7% against him.
As for the articles at the top. The MSM want a close contest. Gets more attention than a yawnslide.
Overall prediction: ALP 85 seats+ on 53/47
Gary Bruce # 137, my point is simply that the opposition in Ireland lead in the polls prior to the election and then on election day the Ahern was returned, hopefully it happens here.