McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney

Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.

UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.

UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

260 comments on “McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney”

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  1. refresh, refresh, refresh
    refresh, refresh, refresh
    refresh, refresh, refresh
    refresh, refresh, refresh
    refresh, refresh, refresh …

  6. Does anyone think they have had the Newspoll figures since the start of the show, and thus it has coloured all their comments?

    Or do you think they only just got it?

    [Hockey 44/41 primaries in Nth Syd]

    There’s lots of government ministers struggling to crack 45 on primaries.

    Turnbull, Pyne, Hockey, Nair…

  21. Adrian @ 36 – re the ABC’s coverage, I think they’re suffering from having the ruler constantly run over them by Rehame, which is monitoring every minute of their coverage. So if they run a story that’s critical of the government, no matter how important it is, they often drop it from the next bulletin in favour of a pro-government or anti-ALP ‘story’, even when it’s not news at all. I’ve noticed this happening with several significant stories of late – the ANAO, Andrews reviewing all the detainees’ documentation etc. The story will run for a very short time, then be replaced by fluff.

    It’s what Janet Albrechtson calls ‘balance’.

  24. [Mike is a lovely gentle man and in a short time has made many friends in this electorate. There is however, a large Armenian vote and they will stick with Shrek and his Armenian background. He was campaigning with Gladys Berejiklian, the State MP. again quite popular as she has tackled public transport in earnest.]

    Sadly I can see this happening – though I have a lazy $15 on Mike. Sadly because I’m Armenian and one of the few I know who is solidly left. For reasons I’ll never be able to understand, the Armenian block vote, not just in this electorate but generally, trends solidly Liberal. (If Howard scrapes back in in Bennelong, the Armenian contingent there will be pivotal – I apologise on their behalf.)

  28. Dennis Shanahan needs a drink – he’s even reverting to the doctors’ wives cr#p – but he is right that Howie and gang are desperate.

  36. Well well well…..

    Here we are in the final straight and it looks like we are well and truly in clover.

    The “protest vote” Latham referred to in the AFR has turned out to be no more than about 2-3% (ALP TPP avg prior to election 57). Since the election it has “narrowed” to 54 and stayed rock solid. Gentlemen, please put down your glasses.

  37. HUZZAH!!

    Take that Rodent. Its, like, over dude.

    Here’s the running order for Saturday Night:

    First we take Bennelong. (Embrucement phase)
    Then, we take the Nation (Emruddment phase)
    Then we dismantle the most odious elements of your legacy (Derodent phase)

    The the Libs trash you for a decade. Im afraid we cant control that one.

  38. Hahahahahaha… then back to back Liberal interest rate and ‘wall to wall’ ads on Sky News after Agenda finished. Don’t these dumbass Libs know that swinging voters don’t watch Sky????? What a waste of money!

  39. OK get real everyone

    NARROWING IS HAPPENING!

    By my calculations the libs have probably closed the gap by 0.2% per week since the election was called.

    That means absoulutely nothing in terms of who will win of course, but I’m sure it will be mentioned in the GG

  40. Why the H is there such a delay in getting the damn thing up on Sky???? It makes me so tense, etc. A 46-41 margin probably means a 7% Grn vote, so Labor’s 2PP is probably better than 54-46.

  41. Shanahan doesn’t really know anything else and can’t really compute life without the contacts that have served him sooooo well this year.

  45. Averaging bookmakers odds is logically and practically flawed because it does not reflect the true market probabilties.

    Factors of; individual bookmakers needing to balance their books to a certain degree, odds being offered not in contention of being executed, and differences of overround being offered by each bookie, become taken into account.

    To calculate the true market probability, the best or equal best odds offered in the market should be used.

    So Diogenes, Simon Jackman dosen’t do it properly after all.

    If you don’t believe it, check out the way S.P. are determined at racetracks.

  46. Sorry there Dario – I was used to keying in ”Shanahack ” but thought I’d try something new. A bit like I’d like to see Dennis do – like a new thought or a new job 🙂

  47. Also noted were the swings. Helen McCabe said that the swing in NSW from the last poll taken was @ 7%. The swing in this poll was 10%. That means that Work Choices is worth 3% to Mike Bailey. North Sydney WILL swing more than the average in NSW 😉

  48. Concerned about Minister Malcolm’s splash into Venture Rainfall, I phoned my dear, dear friend Lady Ponsonby-Smythe of Point Piper on the QT.

    On her third sweet sherry, her ladyship was feeling expansive.

    “Well, dah-ling, what do you expect? No self-respecting Water Diviner who knew Rupert or Malcolm would ever DREAM of getting off their ars* for less than $10 mill.!”

    Right you are, ma’am.

  49. Mark, I’d love to see Cook come into play. I was at Ray Thorburn’s election party when he lost it to Don Dobie in 1975 after taking it from him in 1972. It’s been grim since. Scott Morrison is invisible. He’s been planting posters on local high schools only to have the grounds assistants remove them on the next school day. I also agree, Dana Vale is a vintage peanut.

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