The Advertiser has published a survey of 617 respondents from Boothby which shows Liberal incumbent Andrew Southcott leading Labor’s Nicole Cornes 52-48 on two-party preferred. Southcott’s lead on the primary vote is 41 per cent to 32 per cent, which suggests the “don’t know” component has not been excluded. The poll was conducted on Monday night. A similar poll published on September 26 had the primary vote gap at 44 per cent to 29 per cent.
Stephen @40, as I said before, I respect Howard (in the same way one respects Ghengis Kahn) but when I saw him bring out workchoices I thought, “this dude would rather die politically than give up his ideology.” And when I saw him promote nuclear power I thought “uhoh, he’s gone.”
Problem is Howard is sincere about nuclear power, but he’s also a victim of surrounding himself with people who have a vested interest like Ziggy or people who don’t have a scientific mindset or are simply too scared to dissent. Bad move Howard. But, inevitable too.
Same thing happens to big/old companies too.
The Boothby projection of 54/48 in favour of the Libs is in stark contrast to the impressions I’m getting down on the street.
Yeah Pi. Where was Tip the day before yesterday? I’ll tell you where, he was campaigning in Higgins, that’s what he was doing! He would normally be swanning around in other Tory seats, but not this time.
“31
Generic Person Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:23 am
No 27
How pompously arrogant SIEV IV. You can’t accept nuclear because you keep referring to hysterical safety issues. We don’t live in the 1980s anymore.”
Hmmm… hysterical safety issues… So what do you think of these comments from tonight’s 7.30 Report. More equivocation, perhaps?
“JOHN HOWARD: Well Kerry, I have never denied my belief that if an economic necessity brings nuclear power on to the table, never denied that, and it should happen, and I’ve also never walked away from saying that wherever nuclear power stations might, in the future, be built would be subject to three things environmental considerations, safety considerations and binding local plebiscites.”
When you wake up tomorrow it will be three more sleeps until the rodent gang are gone forever.
Think about that! All the frantic cheerleading and total cr@p spouted by Robb and the Limited News Corporation won’t change it. Boothby will go to that nice Ms Cornes. Julia will be deputy PM and Nicola will be Minister for Health. Howard will be working on his reading (Guy Rundle thinks he’s lined up the collected works of Tom Clancy, but I think that’s too literary for the rat).
Black out starts tomorow night if my memory serves me well. That’s another nice thought.
The Possum has proposed that the faeces will start to fly in earnest from now on. But don’t panic, it won’t work at all, at all. Just look at the regressions on those polls. Pure magic. Like Jimmy Bartel carving up the midfield, and Gazza shrugging off four tackles to deliver a pinpoint pass to Mooney.
Just keep the lid on!
# 46 Generic Person Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:30 am
Dump nuclear waste in the desert… good solution. Over which particular basin do you think would make the best site?
On Rudd and contradictions:
http://www.brookesnews.com/062011rudd.html
Nicole’s first interview was embarassing – she wasn’t coached and prepared properly enough for that first press conference and that’s the party’s fault really. So she started off with negative press. I gather the Advertiser gave her a hard time as well.
With a better and more competent start she might be in front by now. But is still in with a real chance as some of those negative impressions wear off.
48 GP, My post was about economically possible alternatives in the energy sector. It’s not a simple moral question; TISM! It strikes me you wriggle like a worm every time you get a serious question put to you on this blog, you regularly fail to answer serious questions, and you are very very unimpressive, go to bed.
About Nicole.
I mentioned, in the hallucination of the previous thread, that Nicole was doing okay.
The Advertiser hates her, Matt especially, if not Dave, hates her. Might mention I heard Matt (Abraham) praising Coverington has a first class journalist.
She was on the 7.30 Report Monday night. Looked and sounded good.
Southcott is a complete time server. Just about all I have ever had from him are hugely expensive Gallipoli, tap into JWH, self serving sentimental pamphlets. Have kept them, for future reference.
Despite Nicole’s crap start, she has recovered. Testament to her.
Coach is probably good.
50
Glen Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:32 am
“…. Howard is a leader who might not always do what’s popular but he’ll do what’s right for Australia…”
….
Yet another worthy-sounding but empty cliche- talk about banging on an empty pot. Howard has only ever done what has best served his numerous ideological fixations.
# 57 Generic Person Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:36 am
Quoted from their front page…
… or my favourite…
Nice sources mate. Thanks, but I prefer my publications with a little less hate.
GP @57, Ah.. so KR is anti capitalist! I knew it!
supercilious twaddle
CW @ 60, I’m with ya. I think she’s done well for a first-timer and hope the poll is not quite right.
“57
Generic Person Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:36 am
On Rudd and contradictions:
http://www.brookesnews.com/062011rudd.html”
Your mother should have told you to stay away from boys like this. Next thing you’ll be claiming the Freemasons run the world, and that the Queen is a drug pusher on behalf of the World Wildlife Fund.
Just had a look at the Oz and the story about the 13 ‘ineligible’ candidates now seems to have a new headline and is not on the front page of the site – had to go digging for it. New headline is about Libs being desperate … that’s nice.
One last thing about Nukes .
There has been no mention of compensation for the householders whose house values will plumment when a Nuke is sited in their area.
Which is why we need to be told where the sites are going to be before th election.
As for this poll,as was pointed out what is the story with the other 27% in the poll, they can’t all be minor parties, a lot of undecideds.
Missed the jumbo thread, just a quick de-brief before punching out a few zzzzzzzs.
-Red Kez delivered his coup de grace with aplomb to a focused, a very focused, indeed, an inordinately focused El Rodente.
-Admiral Andrew Robb self-swiftboated The Rat Navy.
– Barnyard Joyce on LL delivered a stunning dissertation on why psephology is junk science, but phone-in and online polls rule OK.
-Nobody in Team Ruddster screwed up.
-Still can’t believe the Degree of Focus that El Rodente achieved whilst dicharging his duties on this day.
P.S. Good to see you back, Footsie.
GP@57…
With writers like Selwyn Duke, (proposes a complete moratorium on immigration) I’m not sure people should be surprised at your ideology.
Good sources mate. It kind of shows what kind of person we’re dealing with here.
Pi
What is the basis for your confidence in Higgins?
Hi to you, too, EC. Had to go bush for a few days and (it being Australia) there wan’t any internet thing. But am trying to make up for it by not sleeping.
Am very happy i got my dough on the ALP and Max before the narrowing (of the odds, that is). I bet it narrows a bit more before Friday.
I would also be happily looking at a 55-45 Newspoll on Friday.
And GP, pardon me William, will you just piss off!
You are not Boothby.
# 71 Gecko Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:45 am
The change in demographics over the past three years, and the change in home-ownership. Sure there are lots of leafy suburbs… but we also have a lot of areas that are not quite as affluent.
And then there are the teenage kids that have been shafted by AWA’s. This is one of the big movers, IMO.
Crikey Whitey – I did notice the comment about the 13.5% cap (I paid 13.5 on my first house). The argument for abolishing the cap was that you had to satisfy such rigid conditions that very few people cd qualify for a home loan, and those who qualified were mainly people who didn’t need the cap.
Sounds fine, except that the people who promoted lifting the cap were talking about people buying houses on their credit cards (which at that stage were at 22%). The other part of the trade-off, which is rarely discussed, is that it involved lifting the government guarantee for most savings accounts. If you ever want to be deeply scared, read the Wallis Report. I especially like the bit where they argue that it’s essential to the integrity of the system that a major bank should be allowed to collapse and its depositors lose their savings. Gives you some idea of why Wallis was such a raging success at the companies he used to run, where the shareholders lost most of theirs.
No 75
Crikey Whitey, you are simply annoyed that there is diverse opinion. You can’t stand it because it interferes with your sphere of leftist belligerence.
Pi, I agree about the demographics in Higgins.
My main worry is that the state by state polls show Victoria slacking off.
Is that the impression you get?
Now, an absolute classic to go to bed with.
Go Louis.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=6COgkqy1UU8&feature=related
4 more sleeps until Julia as deputy PM
# 81 mad cow Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:53 am
I don’t get that impression at all.
I liked the bit on 7:30 where Kez asked rattus if, given he was such a fan of floating rates, he didn’t deregulate them when he was Treasurer, and waited for Keating to do it. Rat could only do that ‘smile’ thing and suggest we move on to more current events. Then he started talking about Nukes. GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! As Norman May used to say.
Pi @ 76
I’m in Higgins and I’ve been a bit disappointed at the lack of ‘ANYTHING’ in my mailbox from Labor. I get plenty from Costello and had one from the Greens. But nothing from B Norman.
I hope you’re right but because of the lack of effort, I don’t think so.
34 Crikey Whitey, still waiting for your expansion on the caps issue, can’t stay awake much longer, rate of speech slowing, need 150mls of Coonawarra STAT, 🙂
Furthermore, GP and other trolls; how nuclear even got into Boothby is beyond me.
Concentrate your nucleous (spelling, word?) know what I mean, I’m sure, free energies on Mayo, why don’t you?
One of his 25 plants.
Because that is exactly what your beloved John Howard wants to gift to Cape Jervois, that beautiful place.
And Dolly doesn’t give a fat rats!
SIEV XI at 90.
Is tomorrow okay? I’ll post on this thread, William permitting. Might have a bit more info by then, rather than hazy recollection.
Go, Coonawarra, Nicole!
[Just had a look at the Oz and the story about the 13 ‘ineligible’ candidates now seems to have a new headline and is not on the front page of the site – had to go digging for it. New headline is about Libs being desperate … that’s nice.]
It’s also mentioned in this story.
[THE accident-prone campaign of star Labor recruit George Newhouse has hit another pothole, with a leaked email revealing his campaign manager has espoused anti-Zionism.
The revelation that Mr Newhouse’s campaign manager, Rose Jackson, has spoken out against the Jewish state has the potential to hurt his chances in the marginal eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth, which has the largest number of Jewish voters of any electorate in Australia. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22795651-601,00.html
Sorry to change the subject but:
The Smear is Dead!
Long Live the Backfire.
Just checked the AM editions up on line for Wednesday’s dailies and most are (correctly) reporting that there was no evidence to substantiate the Liberal’s inelligible candidate smear. Some are reporting the Labor supplied evidence that 11 of 12 candidates named (1 not able to be contacted) had resignation letters. Just in case you needed more proof that JWH and co are not libeal with the truth, Andrew Robb has supplied it! here are some headlines:
SMH “Dirty dozen smear”
Age “Candidate claim untrue”
and now the right wing papers that will really hurt:
Australian: Libs flag wentworth legal challenge (refutation in fine print)
Herald Sun “Challenge Backfires on Liberals”
Courier Mail: “Labor Backlash – candidates eligibility defended”
Daily Telegraph: “PM Slam-dunked on leadership plan”
Advertiser: “Labor denies Liberal claims” then calls claim “an embarrassement”
only Perth has: “Court might decide election result”
As for Boothby, maybe after evidence of the smear being false dominates the remaining news coverage, Nicole might still get through.
high fives, socrates 🙂
implosion imminent 🙂
52-48 is not so bad for Nicole. One thing none of these polls take into account are the ballot order. Being top is worth about 1%. (She isn’t on the top of the ballot, but is higher than Andrew, which in a two horse race – given nobody else has a chance is still worth the same)
So taking this all literally, it looks like 51-49. And the MoE is about 4%.
Andrew is the favorite, but I think this seat could do anything.
95 Crikey Whitey, tomorrow it is, any thread is fine, as I reckon it’s worth a ventilation regardless of topic, soft soaking rain falling in Melbourne’s northern suburbs tonight, I’ll sleep tight tonight, the toad awaits his appointment with the taxidermist, nighty night!
Nicole now at 2.70
heh
Pi, how do you feel about the victorian swing in general?
Jenny 78
Just noticed your post. For sure, it’s about de reg etc. And the everything thereafter.
But I did start going on about Bannon shoring up the over the cap buyers, at the time.
And the so what, really, difference, for home buyers, then and now.
More later.
# 110 mad cow Says: November 21st, 2007 at 2:18 am
Outside of the metro areas, I wouldn’t have a clue, but I just don’t think they’re going to feel the effects of AWA’s and interest rates. I don’t think the nationals have as much to worry about.
Metro areas though…
Pi, its just that the newspoll state by state breakdown has shown a drop off in victoria. Is this real.. or noise?
I figure it’s noise.
SA on the other hand… still not sure about.
When and what is the next poll?
Suffering poll withdrawal, Gecko? 🙂
“116
Gecko Says:
November 21st, 2007 at 2:22 am
When and what is the next poll?”
I know where you’re coming from Gecko, trust me, and I often feel the same, but just four days out from the real one, it’s a bloody funny question…
Nerves I guess