Michigan thread

To celebrate today’s primaries in Michigan, I hereby present presidential election open thread number two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

491 comments on “Michigan thread”

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  2. Can’t you tell what is happening with the so called “race and gender row” between Hillary and Obama. It’s the conspiracy of the GOP and Lunatic Rights. They know in Hillary and Obama, the Dems have two candidates which are so much better and stronger than any the GOP can dish out.

    So they are trying to destroy both by pinning Hillary as the gender candidate and Obama as the race candidate. They are now doing the old “divide and rule” routine and pit Hillary and Obama against each other, hope they would tear each other apart and in the process become damaged candidate.

    I think the GOP and Lunatic Rights are hoping and praying that Obama will win. If the Obama camp think it’s a nasty “race race” from the Hillary camp, just wait until the GOP and the Lunatic Rights let loose on Obama. They will destroy Obama physically and mentally with their race campaign for the GOP’s candidate to stroll in during the Prez election. Don’t say I have not warned you.

  4. Megan, I think you should re-post your 914 from previous thread, ‘Filipino Monkey’, jeez, what a classic! I am splitting my sides too, what a pack of clowns, they realise that the world has seen through their chicanery so they posit that bulls##t as a cover.

  9. JV, reading the Detroit newspapers shows four major events that will probably decide the Primary.

    1. The car industry is in a major slump.

    2. The unemployment rate is higher than the rest of the US.

    3. The sub prime mortgage crisis is biting harder in Michigan than elsewhere.

    4. Romney has canceled all his TV ads in Florida and South Carolina to focus on winning this one. If he can’t win this, Romney may as well pack up and go back to his regular dayjob.

  10. steve- I’ve read in several places that Romney will quit if he doesn’t win Michigan, his home state and also the home state of Michael Moore. I wonder which candidate he is endorsing.

  11. Romney better win. I am not sure but if i am correct it is an open primary? If so someone should be telling all loyal democrats to get of their buts and vote for that mormon twit. Not like they have much choice for themselves. hmm Hillary clinton or Hillary Clinton, thats a tuffy. 😛

  12. Steve, Diogenes & Scotty – Here’s an article from the Boston Globe that discusses the different approaches of McCain and Romney, if you haven’t seen it. McCain is saying that the lost manufacturing jobs due to the local slump are not coming back, while Romney is running the line that with the right policies some of the jobs will come back.

    McCain is probably correct, but the issue is: what do the voters want to hear? One would assume they would rather hear Romney’s message if they are associated with industry. But how tuned in to that issue are the voters in the Dem primary?

    Anyway, the current $2.20 about Romney on Betfair is probably a reasonable price to take, when all is said and done.

    http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/14/same_state_different_message_for_michigans_economy/

  14. the finnigans, you’re spot on. there’s no doubt in my mind that the conservatives want Obama as the democrat candidate. i think this explains the over the top reaction to the Iowa result

  17. Objectively, because of Iraq and the economy, this should be a Democratic year. But there is the opinion that the surge is working. Should this view take hold, then McCain will benefit. Further, it appears that the Dems will pick a controversial candidate, Clinton or Obama. The Repug machine will have a lot to work with. Nothing is for certain. As Will Rogers said: “I am not a member of any organized political party. I’m a Democrat.”

  19. It’s only 7pm MONDAY in Michigan, so you have 24 hours to wait.

    (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_date_line)

    Of COURSE the Repubs want Obama to beat Clinton, because they know that Obama will have huge vulnerabilities come November: (a) he has zero experience (b) he is a standard-issue northern liberal (c) his policies are all hot air and (d) he’s black. If the Dems are mad enough to nominate him he will be thrashed by any decent Repub candidate.

    Anyhow Obama’s not on the ballot in Michigan so on the Dem side this is a meaningless exercise. Clinton is on the ballot but she has not campaigned there and has spent no money, so even if she is beaten by the “uncommitted” slate she can justly claim that it means nothing. The next test for the Dems is the Nevada caucus on Saturday. That’s why Clinton has been trying out her Spanish doorknocking in Mexican suburbs of Las Vegas.

  20. Clinton, apart from being a president’s wife, actually has had less practical experience of government than Obama, who did good work an an Illinois senator. And although she’s white, she still turns off the South and other conservative areas as much as Obama.

  24. Romney getting out a little to $2.24-$2.26 on Betfair, making the bet more attractive – if backing a Mormon can ever be attractive. Still, one should never let emotion get in the way of astute punting.

  25. 19 Adam- re the union influence. I read that the croupiers union in Nevada has come out and endorsed Obama for Nevada. Clearly they must hold a lot of votes in the gambling capital of the world. In fact, most of the union endorsements seem to be going to Obama for some reason.

  27. Romey and Guiliani have been two clever by half, they both tacked to the right in search of Republican primary voters against their personal inclinations, but then Huckabee came along and won the conservatives they had wooed. Among the broader electorate however Romey and Guiliani have suffered due to their rightward shift. McCain has been left as the only Republican with a cross-over appeal: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/12/poll.matchups/index.html

  28. GR @ 27 – Agree McCain is looking more solid in the long run. Romney winning Michigan won’t cause a surprise, or glitch for McCain, because of Romney’s expected strong showing due to his state connection and concentrated effort. On Betfair currently McCain odds-on at $1.72 for Michigan, Romney $2.22 (a little available at $2.26), Huckabee at $23, Giuliani at $120 (wow!)

    McCain in from $2.42 to $2.30 to win Republican nomination since about 10 am this morning. Giuliani at $4.90; Huckabee $6.40; Romney $8.40.

  29. George W can communicate with the dead now. I always knew there was something to that Baptist fundamentalism. I think he’ll be consoling Romney about this time tomorrow.
    “One of my hardest parts of my job is to console the family members who lost their life”.
    BTW Who does George W want to win?

  30. It is going to be a big democrat year in the States. The real question is not unlike Australia , youve got the prize and all of the lollies what exactly are you going to do with it?

    Seems we will be in recession in the second half of 2009 in Australia and the States sometime this year.

    I guess she will make Bill mid-east peace envoy, he can spend his days in some Ramallah rat-hole whilst Hilary gets serenaded by Hail to the Chief.

  31. Hum… where to begin:
    1. I doubt that any more than a handful of people posting on this site are any more than mere casual observers of the US Presidential Candidacy process with most info coming from the internet and mainstream news, myself included. (As such, not much point to any of our collective ponderings but, can’t help myself…)
    2. I suspect this is, in large part, responsible for the dominance of personality – particularly on the Democrat side of things – in the discussion and this flows on to the fact that most discussion is likewise on Democrats. Apparently most of the news and blogosphere think the Dems have the biggest personalities (or at least Barakc and Hilary do – not sure if Edwards has one at all) It is particularly strange that so much talk in on Dems in a Michigan discussion where the Dems have instituted a punitive approach to Michigan’s scheduling and so are effectively running dead there.
    3. I find it worrying that religion is playing a part in these discussions. I can understand a candidate’s religion to be of passing interest to actual voters – not sure how relevant it is to outside observers. Likewise – I’m with A-C, apparently it is ok to bash Mormons, try the same approach with some other religions. Apparently Romney’s JFK religion speech didn’t settle doubts the way it did forty years ago.
    4. Last point – I would agree that if Romney can’t win Michigan (the state where his Dad was Governor and where he was born) he’s out of it – largely because his strategy was based around early wins and the momentum that gives. He certainly can’t be hopeful of winning South Carolina (again, in large part because of his religion apparently) and although relatively well organised and financed he will be desperately short on momentum if he can’t get an early win.

  32. ESJ:

    I think that McCain is basically the only chance there is for the Republicans. If he gets nominated (a big if considering the American-Right’s propensity to shoot themselves in the foot) he might actually be able to pull it off).

    The Democrat contenders (Hillary / Obama) have significant weaknesses, but given the GOP’s problems I think that McCain is the only candidate can properly exploit them.

    I’m hoping for a McCain win in the Michigan primary tomorrow – but unfortunately he’s slightly behind. Michigan GOP primary voters seem hell-bent on nominating a candidate (Romney) who’s destined to lose.

  33. A-C The most recent polls suggest you are right with McCain ahead of Clinton by 5% head-to-head and McCain ahead of Obama by 0.5%. Romney is really trying to tug at the Michigan heartstrings by cancelling his other advertising and putting it all in the Michigan basket, which is almost like threatening to commit suicide unless they vote for him.

  34. 2
    The Finnigans

    At least the GOP can’t do to Obama what they did to McCain in 2000.

    There’s not much mileage in spreading rumours that Obama has fathered a black child, is there?

    Maybe they’ll try a rumour that he’s fathered a ‘white’ one! LOL

    They play a dirty game over there.

  36. 33
    Diogenes

    So much for those who’ve consistently claimed that Clinton stands the best Democrat chance against any Republican. On these national polls she clearly does not. If gender is the issue, and not race, then Obama, just trailing McCain by 3% nationally (Rasmussen), is the best shot they’ve got.

    It’s getting very interesting, (and so glad I got McCain at ten to one!).

  37. As for the Republican field in Michigan and elsewhere: If it wasn’t for the writers strike I’d accuse The Daily Show of making the whole thing up to provide material. Unbelievable.

  39. I hope Romney wins Michigan, stops McCain’s ‘Mo’ going into SC and FL, if Romney wins Michigan and not McCain i believe Giuliani will win Florida by a solid margin.

    Bare in mind McCain has only won one Primary to date and he’s always put in a good show in NH so its hardly surprising he won, but McCain once people actually start analysing his Senate voting record which all the Republicans are fearful of doing because they don’t want to attack an American Hero but McCain wants amnesty for illegals and he is against Tax cuts hardly something that will be popular with the Republican base.

    A Giuliani win in Florida which is a very very strong probability will knock McCain out after Feb5 considering how Giuliani should then pick up California, New Jersey and New York plus his win in Florida will mean he’ll be a country mile ahead of Romney and McCain.

    There have been reports that some Democrat organisations are getting their members to vote for Mitt Romney so as to continue to muddle the field so as to keep them spending up big on the early contests to reduce their funds for a General Election, so i wouldnt be surprised if Democrats either back Romney or Giuliani to stop McCain.

  40. Article in today’s SMH that puts recent US commitments to sell high tech arms to the Gulf Arab states at $11.5 billion. Which makes sense now that Iran is being built up as the big evil empire of the region.

    I guess that’s some recompense for the usual suspects, eh?

  41. Re Florida:

    Monday, January 14, 2008

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of Likely Primary Voters.

    The race in Florida is very fluid. Just 45% of Likely Primary Voters say they are “certain” to vote for the candidate they currently support. Another 45% say they could change their mind while 10% do not even have a first choice.

  42. Giuliani is not likely to make it in Florida, not if he keeps getting the same percentage, or thereabouts, of the vote that Ron Paul is pulling. Last year, it was Giuliani’s to lose, and so far he hasn’t disappointed, and his current ‘mo’ has been all negative. (And let’s not forget, he spent $3 million on New Hampshire last year!).

  44. Kirribilli the reason why Giuliani is going to win Florida is because he has set up 4 major offices around the State and has been exclusively campaigning there since he declared his candidacy not to mention spending the bulk of his cash on hand there regardless of spending cash on NH that was done just to make sure Ron Paul didnt beat him really.

    His ‘mo’ is only negative because he’s hardly fought seriously a primary the early states were all for show he never really tried there and because of his low figures he’s getting trashed but the fact is once Giuliani wins Florida and sweeps up on Feb5 the nomination will ultimately be his. McCain’s spent no time in Florida and has no decent sized campaign staff down there.

    The ‘Mo’ he’ll get with a Florida win will be enough to bring home the bacon on Feb5 and i believe he’ll do it despite the polls being tight.

  45. #35 – Tq for the link. Exactly my point, Hillary and Obama should present themselves as united not to be “divided and ruled” by their opponents. That is effing common sense.

  46. This may sound like a stupid question but who votes in the nominations- the party members? Anyone? Can you vote for both dem and rep preffered leader?

  48. Centaur, not a stupid question at all. Basically, it depends on the jurisdiction (ie state). In some states, only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary and Republicans in the Republican primary. This is called a “closed” primary – New York and California, among many others, do it this way. In other states – New Hampshire, for instance – registered independents can vote in either primary, but only for one of the parties. And in an “open” primary, people can vote for whoever they want – registered Democrats can vote for Republicans and vice versa. Also, it depends on the party organisation in the state, which means that some states have been known to use a mixed system – the Dem primary might be closed and the Republican open, or vice versa.

    The Republican primary in Michigan is open, hence the Daily Kos’s call for Michigan Democrats to vote for Mitt Romney in order to muddy the waters in the Republican campaign.

  49. From Crooks and Liars…………….

    How far has Rudy Giuliani’s slipped? Put it this way: the former mayor has, all of a sudden, discovered religion.

    Rudy Giuliani began his Sunday in an unusual place for him – at church – and with an unusual fellow congregant, the controversial former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris.

    The former mayor, whose second divorce has left him on the outs with his own Catholic Church, started a three-day bus tour through Florida Sunday with a visit to the bilingual El Rey Jesus, a Hispanic evangelical Christian church here. […]

    “This is a beautiful church, and I can feel the spirit of God in this room,” Giuliani told the 7,000 or so worshipers.

    Is anyone really gullible enough to believe such shameless pandering?

    Also note that Giuliani has a standard stump speech he uses every day on the campaign trail. It includes a firm position against illegal immigration, and includes Giuliani’s unwavering belief that those who want to become U.S. citizens must learn “to speak, read and write English.”

    Oddly enough, while speaking at this Miami church, Giuliani omitted all of this from his remarks. I’m sure it was just an oversight — and had nothing to do with the large Latino population in South Florida, most of which votes Republican.

  50. Even more disgusting than Giuliani’s expedient attitude to religion is the fact that he went there with Katherine Harris, who is perhaps the most despicable human being in the US. Even the right wing neocons including George W are nauseated by her and Giuliani must be desperate if he will be seen in public with her.
    And for evidence of this, I’ll include a statement she made which confirms the above “If you’re not electing Christians then in essence you are going to legislate sin. They can legislate sin. They can say that abortion is alright. They can vote to sustain gay marriage. And that will take western civilization, indeed other nations because people look to our country as one nation as under God and whenever we legislate sin and we say abortion is permissible and we say gay unions are permissible, then average citizens who are not Christians, because they don’t know better, we are leading them astray and it’s wrong.”

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