Presenting a thread in which you may all chew the fat about today’s presidential election action from South Carolina and Nevada. Republicans in South Carolina are holding an open primary (meaning any voter can participate in one primary or the other, regardless of their registration) to choose 24 delegates from the national total of 2380. It would normally be 47 delegates, but the state has been penalised for “allocating delegates outside of the Republican National Committee-approved timeframe”. The South Carolina Democratic open primary will be held next week, choosing 54 delegates from a national total of 4050. Forty-five of these are pledged to particular candidates; the remaining nine are unpledged “superdelegates” who attend the national convention as senior party office holders. In Nevada both parties will hold closed caucuses: closed means only voters registered with the party can participate, while caucuses means there is no secret ballot. The state’s Democrats get 33 pledged delegates along with eight superdelegates; the Republicans have 31 delegates determined by the caucuses plus three unpledged Republican National Committee members (the term superdelegates does not get used in relation to the Republicans, for some reason).
SC total pop approx 4.3 million
32% of vote counted, and a bit over 100,000 votes, so projecting, about 300k will vote in the SC Repub caucus.
It’s not a huge turnout compared with the total pop, even if only 3mill are eligibe to vote, it’s about 10% (all in very rough numbers!).
Their ‘democracy’ doesn’t seem to get as much interest as the SuperBowl!
yawn
bush-clinton -clinton-bush-bush- clinton!
and interesting fly in the ointment is if bloomberg runs as as independent candidate..
49
Diogenes
This is the biggest difference between the US and the rest of the first world, I reckon.
To see such polarisation over their interpretation of the Bible is truly astonishing for an advanced nation in the 21st century. How much extra impetus this gets from their conflict with fundamentalist Islam is debatable (some no doubt), but the foundations for this stuff have been there since the Puritans.
#49 – The vote by church attendance is interesting – 30% of voters attending church more than twice a week, 32% weekly, 12% monthly, 17% a few times each year, and 7% never.
More ‘narrowing’! Only 4% between them now.
davidoff, thank god for the 7% never.
Obama won in delegates just FYI. Sort of like how you can win the popular vote and lose an election.
Thompson has got to be out of this race now, so far a close third with Romney.
Also interesting is that 51% of the voters are college graduates.
50
I don’t think my numbers stack up. I assumed reporting percentage was voters, when in fact it’s probably caucus sites.
So now, with just over half reporting, there’s roughly 220,000 votes in. It will obviously depend on the size of the remaining site’s turnouts.
Still, it’s not going to be a huge number difference to 300K.
Down to 3%, with 60% of reporting sites.
Oh, McCain, you’ve done it….(again?)
The word is Thompson will quit after another poor showing, which will help Romney and Huck. That leaves the four Repugs divided by religion, very simplistically.
Huck-Baptist, Protestant
Giuliani-Catholic
Romney-Mormon
McCain-atheist
And probably the scariest stat of them all – 54% of voters identified themselves as “White Evangelical/Born-Again”.
Oh, don’t they pander?
Guess who said this:
“I’m confident, in South Carolina, we will get our share of social conservative voters because of their fear of radical Islamic extremism, because of their belief in our biblical obligation to stewardship of our planet, and three, their belief in our biblical obligation to maintain the integrity and security of the state of Israel.”
Looks like McCain.
KR – CNN is showing McCain ahead by 5%.
McCain 101,373 votes
Huckabee 88,102 votes
The exit polls show the born-again vote splitting only 40 to 27 between Huckabee and McCain, this seems enough to sink Huckabee. It seems that although born-agains like Huckabee many are influenced by other factors just like other voters. Religious Christian voters are not the mindless zombies that some liberals imagine (ditto in other contexts for devout Muslims as well). Remember Romney will still be well ahead in delegates.
I thought Intrade was US based…huh…its based in Dublin.
This was said by McCain Geoff Robinson:
“I’m confident, in South Carolina, we will get our share of social conservative voters because of their fear of radical Islamic extremism, because of their belief in our biblical obligation to stewardship of our planet, and three, their belief in our biblical obligation to maintain the integrity and security of the state of Israel.”
…and it looks like it worked!
Like I said, they pander to it, eh?
CNN projecting a McCain win – 3% ahead of Huckabee (88% of the vote counted).
Thompson probably killed Huckster by taking enough of the christian right away from him.
Oh well, I’m happy for McCain to win, and get the nomination too, as it will cover all bets for Obama and Huckster and still leave a handsome profit.
19 Brenton. The Democrats have a massive war chest in funds. The Repugs are just about broke. Which is the opposite to what normally happens. And according to the polls I have seen the only Repug with any chance is Mcain. But when they start tying him in with Bush, by using their millions it’ll be all over.
The New York Times, The Associated Press, NBC, Fox and CNN calling the race for Mr. McCain
This is not including the millions from Move On. Which is attracting millions in international funds. This by passes the US only laws.
51 blacklight. Is that Morse Code or something?
Chris B , thanks for the information, especially about Move On.
Sees like Huckabee aims to continue the campaign. “The path to the White House is not ending here tonight,” Mr. Huckabee said. “We’re resetting the clock.” He said he would wake up tomorrow “to fight the battle yet again.”
3.5% with just 3% left to report.
Pretty close, and Huckster will be hoping that Thompson quits.
It’s not a bad result for McCain, but it ain’t the killer blow he really needs to overcome the big opposition he has in some quarters of the party.
About Move On, I think that just about doubles the Democrats funds. The Democrats funds blows away the amount George Bush Jnr had spent on him by the Repug machine in 2000. This in itself was a record amount and about double the Democrats. This is only if my memory serves me correct. Don’t take me to court on it. I’ll plead Alzymers.
Huckleberry will be happy only losing by 3% so he’s not out of it and McCain didn’t score a decisive victory in SC which we all expected. An expected Giuliani win in Florida will really put the cat amongst the pigeons on Super Tuesday for the Republicans…
Anybody have any thoughts on who will win the Hawaii Primary on the 25th???
I’d say Giuliani and McCain would have the best shots there but who knows.
It appears as though Florida will be a crucial battle for the nomination if any of Giuliani, Huckleberry, McCain or Romney pick up 57 delegates from Florida they’ll be the front runner the early states count for squat Florida gives you uber ‘Mo’ going into Super Tuesday IMHO.
For those who don’t think McCains age will hamper him as a President take alook at this McCain sleeps through the State of the Union address. The last thing we want is to have an American President asleep at the wheel lol and yes i know you’ll come back and say Bush is yadda yadda yadda!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TPN00EofE8&feature=related
Better than being brain dead Glen.
Didn’t Ronald Rayguns sleep through his whole Presidency?
If/when Thompson bows out tomorrow (evidently his mum is sick in hospital and he’s going to be with her rather than campaign), his supporters seem to be saying they will go to Romney (no surprise) and to GIULIANI (big surprise to me anyway). The “true conservatives” donwant McCain OR Huck. He’s a taste of their bile:
“No real Fred fan can or will support McCain. McCain and Huckabee are destroying the party and the country. And may take Western Civilization down with them. The future of the free world is at stake, and these two guys are handing the next election to the Dims. Neither will ever be POTUS, and they don’t deserve to be.”
Diogenes, is that a quote from one of the US political blogs? I had a troll through a few of them this morning, there are some scary critters in those swamps. I would estimate there are quite a few psychopaths among them. Makes our rantings appear pretty sane actually!
Looks like the bookies are determined to subside a trip to the Beijing Olympics or a European holiday to anybody. They currently have Hillary Clinton at $3.25. With the power surge on from the Clinton campaign and Obama’s surge from the Iowa win on the decline, Hillary Clinton is at very good odds to win the South Carolina primaries later in the week. Clinton was leading in all the opinion polls pre Iowa.
http://www.pollster.com/
http://www.betfair.com/
Someone said above that McCain is an atheist. Pish. Atheists don’t get elected to anything in the US, certainly not to the Senate from Arizona.
For the record:
McCain: Baptist
Romney: Mormon
Giuliani: Catholic
Huckabee: Baptist
Thompson: Church of Christ
Clinton: Methodist *
Obama: Church of Christ
Edwards: Methodist
*But since Bill Clinton is a Baptist, she usually attends Baptist services.
85 Basil- Yes that one’s from one of the big Politico Repug blogs, of which the moderator is highly biased to McCain incidentally.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/
87 Adam- Actually I didn’t say McCain is an atheist. I said that for atheists who vote Repug (and should have included agnostics, convenience Christians etc) he seems to be their preferred candidate. And I have come to appreciate your wisdom about the hard right preferring to lose than endorse a moderate Repug. The quote at 84 was by no means an extreme example, it was pretty representative. It’s quite frightening.
McCain’s still ahead of Giuliani by 3% on average in the polls to win Florida. South Carolina will give him some ‘mo’ and it’s a one shot strategy for Rudy. If Rudy loses in Florida, he can just about kiss this race goodbye.
Can’t wait!
omg. Is the Republican Florida Primary closed??
McCain’s victory speech:
http://us.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/19/nevada.sc.main/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
Even if you don’t agree with anything he says, you can see what a class act he is compared to a phony like Romney, a sleaze like Giuliani or a yokel like Huckabee.
Atheists don’t get elected to anything in the US, certainly not to the Senate from Arizona. Pish. Church goers get elected in the US. What has going to church got to do with your religious belief.
Diogenes, I can’t see many atheists voting Republican these days, since the party is heavily influenced, if not yet quite controlled, by theocrats. But I agree that McCain and Giuliani are the least theocratic of the Republican candidates.
90-Repub Florida Primary is closed and winner take all. Whoever wins it will hit the lead, even Giuliani. So McCain doesn’t get the independents. And, according to Hunter S Thompson, there are lots of ex-New Yorkers in Florida so I think it’s do-or-die for Rudy down there. If he can’t win there, he should chuck it in.
Adam, can you (or anyone else) explain why Huck is so hated by the extreme right Repugs who prefer Romney and even Giuliani to him? He is pro-religious values, pro-tax cuts and wants to deport illegal immigrants. Is it because he seems to be a decent, reasonable, likeable Human so he doesn’t fit in?
What is your evidence for the statement that Huckabee is hated by the extreme right Republicans?
Most of the ex-New Yorkers in Florida are Jewish Democrats, who will be voting en bloc for Clinton, not for Giuliani.
To get elected the business republicans formed an unholy alliance with the religious nutters; come on get real these are rich people that want to get richer; they don’t believe in garden fairies. War and religion is about money.
Huck is from the wrong side of the unholy alliance, there is even a chance he has never been in a brothel.
Business does not want to deport Mexicans (take a long hard look at Bushes policies if you don’t believe me) couldn’t care less about religion ( unless the business is a church), but do like the money in their pockets and not the governments. One out of two isn’t good enough.
It’s that simple really.
And I should add there is nobody in the republican lineup that can stitch together business and religious nutters this time around. To many republicans have been caught in brothels to begin with. God I loved it when Pastor Ted Haggard was outed by his boyfriend a week before the last congress and senate elections.
All hail Hillary. She is the man.
Adam, hate was too strong a word for some of them but a lot I’ve read really hate him. Rush Limbaugh gets stuck into him and tells conservatives not to vote for him. The majority of the conservative bloggers who comment agree with him, much to the amusement of the moderate Repubs and the Democrat bloggers.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0108/Rush_Huck_not_a_conservative.html
There’s a rumour that Obama has won more delegates in Nevada. Well, it ain’t necessairly so. This from Joan Walsh at Salon:
Clinton spokesperson Phil Singer emailed the following statement: “The Obama campaign is wrong. Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19.” Jill Derby’s official statement that seems to back the Clinton camp’s analysis: “No national convention delegates were awarded. The calculations of national convention delegates being circulated are based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same between now and April 2008. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”
http://www.salon.com/opinion/walsh/election_2008/2008/01/19/obama_delegates/index.html