Morgan: Rudd 77, Nelson 9

Roy Morgan, which normally goes easy on “beauty contest” questions, has today entered the fray with a phone poll of 527 respondents. It gives Brendan Nelson the same 9 per cent preferred prime minister rating he suffered from Newspoll, with Kevin Rudd on 77 per cent compared with Newspoll’s 70 per cent. That’s not the worst of it though: on the question of preferred Liberal leader, Nelson can only manage equal fourth place behind Malcolm Turnbull (24 per cent), Peter Costello (18 per cent) and Joe Hockey (13 per cent). Nelson and Alexander Downer are both on 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd is favoured as Labor leader by 66 per cent over 15 per cent for Julia Gillard; in the absence of Rudd, 50 per cent would favour Gillard over 8 per cent for Wayne Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: Rudd 77, Nelson 9”

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  1. Hmm, fellow bludgers, there’s any number of things I could add, no doubt il- considered leftoid rant and such like. Again thank you for the stats info from Unicorn and Steve. I think I’ve got it. Night all.

  2. gp et al

    i equate CC with flat earth-provable depending on the science 🙁

    50s UFO woooo
    60s CONSPIRACY louder wooooo
    70s A_BOMB double loud woooooo
    80s FAMINE triple… woooooo
    90s CHEMICALS quad… woooooo
    00s CLIMATE Change crescendo of wooooos

  3. Sorry, Scorpio and Rusty, delayed watching Lateline.

    So, Rusty! Good Heavens. Audrey and Wally, yes?

    Scorpio, I just saw your 159 on Oh, what a feeling. Pondering.

  5. BTW
    anyone remember
    DA MILLENIUM BUG

    omg devastation ,back to the dark ages,financial chaos,nukes going off spontaneously

    close to 400 bill (1999 dollars) spent

    once someone can show me terra forming technology i may be interested

  6. Noticed, belatedly, classified at 173.

    Classified, I have to say, it really is intriguing.

    William may find an unexpected way to make a profit from his site.

    William Bowe and Tim Winton.

    A First. Oz blogosphere. Politically themed.

    Sort of Cloudstreet in Cyberspace.

  8. Scorpio has once again misrepresented me as GP in post 191. This is the third time you have made the same error/mistake in the last few days.

    I have politely and good naturedly pointed this out on the two separate previous occaissions. Yet this third item appears.

    As Auric Goldfinger said in Fleming’s novel Gold finger, “Once is happenstance, twice is co incidence and three times is enemy action.”

    Scorpio, I am more than happy to be responsible for what I do say, good and bad. However, I do take exception to being misquoted and/or misrepresented (a la Grace Pettigrew and Marky Marky).

    No more co-incidences, please.

  9. 207 Gary Bruce, it was amazing the enthusiasm shown by the resident trolls after Bolt got his Liberal Party talking points and lead the charge. Good to see that the record has now been straightened out to some degree.

  10. Another thing about the whole Turnbull silly question to Swan saga is apparent if it is viewed through the current ppm lens. What did Nelson do, say or achieve on that day? I have no idea and I am sure nobody else does either.

    Bolt and his cheersquad of trolls ensured that a huge backhanded compliment was paid to Turnbull by running the line that one tricky question from our golden boy has cut the career of the serving Treasurer of Australia. Once again whatever Nelson tried to get up on that day is swamped and lost.

    Nelson will not be rolled by doing the work he does but by the continual public undermining by Turnbull supporters which is now in full flight in public forums and especially in the parliament itself.

  11. steve,
    Laurie’s article makes some good points, and (subject to any bizarre, as yet unthought of developments) Swan is in no danger at all.
    However, Swan will struggle to match Turnbull’s articulate delivery (call it showing off if you like, the label doesn’t matter). Whereas Keating and Costello both have the gift of the gab, in spades.
    Swan’s unlikely to lose his job as a result. Brendan might, though.

  12. Greeensborough Growler Says: @ 208,

    [Scorpio has once again misrepresented me as GP in post 191. This is the third time you have made the same error/mistake in the last few days.]

    [No more co-incidences, please.]

    GG, profuse apologies if I have offended you by any misreference to you in any of my posts.

    Totally intended up to date. Probably early dementia setting in, although worth checking to see if I was actually referring to “The Australian” at the time.

    I am still in the habit of referring to it as GG, and am struggling, as many others to find a suitable replacement for a very familiar term.

    Please delay “Enemy Action” until such time as a genuine “Frontal Attack” is waged upon you from my section of the cosmos.

    I try to attack the argument or position put forward and not the person and any variation from that is purely accidental or misconscrewed.

    Enjoy your day blogging.

    Cheers, Golfer.

  13. Greeensborough Growler,

    Crikey, we are a bit sensitive, this morning, aren’t we.

    Did you get out on the wrong side this morning or have you been told to mow the lawn or some such dreadful task?

    Post 191 was a usual poor attempt at humour directed non-maliciously at Generic Person.

    I now join a growing list of posters who have accidentally mixed you, GG up with GP.

    Dreadfully sorry. Especially so as GP may have missed the little dig.

  14. It is becoming apparent that Nelson’s biggest gaffe so far is leaving Turnbull as the Shadow Treasurer, he was better off shoring that job up for someone he could trust to some degree.

  15. I do like the cartoon today in “the Australian” today. It has Hockey telling Nelson that they have a problem as the cardboard cut-out is polling better then him. Almost made me laugh as much as Mumbles “Leave Swannie alone”.

    On the Morgan Poll itself: This has got to be a fairly rushed job. For one thing the heading on preferred prime minister reads “Howard vs Beazley” which suggest the template hadn’t been used in about 15 months.

    The question on ALP leader I found a little funny. In what I think might a worrying sign for Rudd; 1 in 3 ALP voters named someone else as there preferred party leader. Gilly might be challenging soon. Also Macklin seems to have a lot of support from Family First Supporters (20% which I think it equals one voter).

    Over on the Liberal side, Nelson is not only coming forth but Bishop, Abbott and Downer are not that far behind. Maybe they should setup a rotating captaincy like some AFL clubs use; everyone gets a go until one stands out. It couldn’t be any worse.

    Clearly, the selection process was rushed and they made a mistake. At the time, they failed to realise that they had lost the election and therefore the public’s support. Nelson isn’t a bad job as such but he is not doing what the public wants either. Not since the old digger Billy Hughes was given the job of leading the UAP in the 40’s has the conservative side looked so badly a drift.

  18. 217 Nice thought Gary, but Glen, before he morphed into GP assured me that he doesn’t read links. I think you will have to copy the main part out for him.

  19. steve @ 216,

    An interesting point in that article is this.

    [Wayne Swan has warned his critics not to underestimate him by reminding them he has beaten cancer and seen off Peter Costello.

    In an exclusive interview with the Herald, Mr Swan admitted his parliamentary debut over the past fortnight as Treasurer could have been better, but said he had been more focused on the budget than his public performance.]
    skip
    [Mr Swan said he had no intention of trying to mimic the parliamentary style of Mr Costello and Paul Keating, both long-term treasurers who were the chief bomb-throwers for their prime ministers. He said they were preening themselves for the leadership, but he had no designs whatsoever on Kevin Rudd’s job.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/family-benefits-look-safe-from-razor/2008/02/22/1203467427964.html

    I think the attack focus on Swan will backfire and that they underestimate him at their peril. Still, that seems to have been their whole approach to Labor for the past 18 months or so, so at least they are consistent.

  21. Steve, thanks for the advice. I must admit I wasn’t aware GP was Glen but now that I think about it, it makes sense. Now I know I’m wasting my time with GP. Glen by any other name is still Glen, if you know what I mean.

  22. There was a huge delay in getting the site to load last night and it was best avoided.

    Just a bit of speculation on why Glen and his alteregos don’t read links but respond with a guess about what was in the link from another poster.

    Is it because ‘links’ means ‘left’ in German and he steadfastly refuses to have anything to do with the left?

  24. 223 Funny thing was I tried out his theory by posting a couple of things that had nothing to do with what was being discussed and sure enough a confident guess arrived about the link each time obviously without it being read.

  25. [There was a huge delay in getting the site to load last night and it was best avoided. ]

    Thet’s a relief.

    I thought my computer was suffering from arthritis or had picked up a virus or something.

  26. In today’s Murdoch rag Hockey is quoted as saying that the disruptions will continue every Friday until the opposition gets its way.

    Perhaps, Rudd should amend the standing order that limits TV coverage to question time and require the ABC to transmit all of the Friday sitting so that all the opposition’s thuggery is displayed for our viewing displeasure.

  27. It looks like Dolly Downer is taking a “gap year” break prior to attempting to make it in the real world.

    [Alexander Downer has missed a sitting of federal parliament to play a round of golf, it has been revealed.

    The former foreign minister missed a sitting on February 14, instead playing golf with former deputy prime minister Mark Vaile, News Ltd reports.

    The pair headed to the Royal Canberra Golf Club on the third sitting day of the new parliament, with parliamentary documents showing that just after 9am they were absent from three votes in the House of Representatives.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/downer-under-fire-over-golf-game/20080222-1u2m.html

    [The depleted coalition would have lost the votes as the government has the numbers, but their absence has upset colleagues.

    A source said “a lot of people” were angry.]

    Not half as angry as his constituents should be. Theirs was a totally wasted vote, but it wasn’t as if they weren’t warned beforehand.

  28. 226 [In today’s Murdoch rag Hockey is quoted as saying that the disruptions will continue every Friday until the opposition gets its way.]

    some one needs to tell Hockey that in opposition by definition they do not have the numbers to ‘get it’s way’. He really should have thought what opposition means before the last election. It is astounding that people could say such silly things after years of experience as a Minister. You would at least expect them to have some idea of how the system works.

  29. Scorpio @ 227 – I can tell you that quite a few of Dolly’s constituents are more than a little peeved that he is going to force them to an expensive bye election. The local paper had about 6 letters on the subject this week.

    What has really gotten up everyones’ nose is his admission that he knew the Coalition were gone months before the election. Most believe that if he was wasn’t prepared to serve in opposition he should therefore have retired before the election.

  30. Just how “modest” is this bloke.

    [EVERY week I get emails from readers asking me how on earth I do this job, filling endless pages with columns as wise as they are brilliant, writes Andrew Bolt.]

    Helps I suppose, to fill up more “Murdoch Rag” empty space.

  31. Greetings all –
    can’t belive the idiocy of the Oppositon. Pathetic.
    Hope the next poll shows Nelson on 2%: suppose his Mum and wife will give hime a tick.
    Off the track , but for those who may be interested the Apology rally in Wangaratta had about 500 show up (not bad for a Thursday afternoon in Wangaratta) ,and Sophie looks stupider than ever.
    The highlight was Faye Lienham coming (the woman who’s story Idiot Nelson misused he during the national apology), and she said later that our effort to apologise made up for the hurt she had felt after his misuse of her terrible story of abuse that was the reality of her “well-intentioned removal”.
    Ther have been calls for Sophie’s sacking, and there has been quite a backlash here in JWH’s srongest electorate.
    Yesterday’s carry-on just further eveidence of their ingnomious and completely deserved fall from power.

  32. Mr Bruce, I am not Glen and never have been.

    It would be fairly obvious for William Bowe to discover the truth anyway – given that had we been the same person, we’d be posting from the same IP address.

  33. [There have been calls for Sophie’s sacking, and there has been quite a backlash here in JWH’s srongest electorate.]

    This is a democracy, Jen, or don’t the Greens believe in democracy. You know, where the majority vote-winner is elected?

  34. GP-
    the rally had nothing to do with the Green’s. And that is a stupid question re Democracy.
    The ‘majority vote-winner’ did not represent her electorate and has displeased many of her own constitiuents. There were liberal voters at the Rally, GP.

  35. [The ‘majority vote-winner’ did not represent her electorate]

    Clearly she did since the majority elected her. The people present at your rally are in the minority. Such is democracy.

  36. GP-
    the Australian electorate has been polled to show that 70% supported the Apology.
    Let’s assume that given that Sophie got relected (with a 9% swing against her) that Indi has a less compassionate population than the rest of the nation- even though the motion was unanimously passed -ie: the libs supported it as representatives of their constituents. So Sophie decides to be a maverick. She did not represent tens of thousands of people from an electorate of 90,000 in a very significant moment in our political history. And people are pissed off about it.
    And I imagine so are the leadership of her own party. JWH is not at the helm anymore she and Tuckey made them look even worse, if that’s possible .

  37. And just in case you missed the point:
    lots of liberal voters who voted for Mrs Mirrabella are upset that she didn’t represent them either. Yes, they voted for her- but they didn’t know she was going to do that.

  39. MayoFeral Says: @ 229,

    [Most believe that if he was wasn’t prepared to serve in opposition he should therefore have retired before the election.]

    I think it is more likely that Dolly was in the same state of dis-belief as most of his colleagues.

    ie, Could clearly see with his own eyes what the polls were saying but couldn’t bring himself to accept that the Australian electorate were actually prepared to throw them out.

    Abbott, Howard and others clearly said that the electorate was “sleepwalking”, “having a little joke but would come to their senses” etc
    they were all in a dream state and were the ones sleepwalking……to defeat.

  41. No GP-
    Howard was opposed to the apology.
    s soon as he wsa gone the rest of the members (except Sophie and Tuckey) supported it. So who’s the minority.

  44. Scorpio @ 239 – Soon after the election, from memory the 7.30 Report a week or two later, and again on the 4 Corners program, Dolly said he knew the Howard government was gone. Now he may be indulging in a bit of revisionism, but even so, he must have known that it was at least a slightly better than even money chance he’d be in opposition and chose to stand for reelection anyway.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d love nothing better than to see him crawl into the woodwork never to be heard from again, though I’d prefer it to be the Dutch wood of the ICC prison, but even so, I’m not happy we’re going to have to fork out on a by-election because Dolly doesn’t like the tedium of opposition. He wasn’t elected to be one of the king d*cks, but to represent the voters of Mayo and he’s no less capable of doing it today as he was 3 months ago.

  45. Jen

    What gets me is the lack of mention to water and sustainability, which my colleagues and myself stressed when we made our individual submissions.

    Decentralisation is the key and thus far it is ignored.

    I’ve been invited to fill in an application for the 2020 summit from the highest office…maybe that would be the best forum to get a consensus on the new direction that is needed to ensure the security of future generations.

    Or do you think that following through with the dialogue that we have established with certain state governments?

    Got to make an informed decision to avert duplication.

  46. 244 Mayo -haven’t they suffered enough?

    Sometimes it is worth bearing the cost to see life improve, and to see Downer go would be a joyous moment.
    (Although with him, Howard, Cossie, etc all departing the scene my daily tirade at the TV and radio is diminishing which may have long term detrimental health consequences.) Guess I should be grateful I’ve still got Sophie to cause apoplexy most days.

  47. Scaper,

    Have you read this post by Kina at Oz Election Forums?

    It shows just how much work needs to be done by Rudd & Co to undo the damage and lack of action for the past 11 years.

    http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=42616#p42616

    [There are so many things that the public does not know about the politics behind John Howard’s response to climate change. So, each week day between now and the federal election I will try to provide readers with a new example. The later John Howard leaves the election, the bigger this list will be. ]

  48. I don’t know, but I get the feeling that Greg Hunt may be next successful Liberal leader, only after The Locum, Mezmeralda and Turnbull have had their turns.

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