ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria

The Age has today published an ACNielsen survey of 1001 voters on Victorian state voting intention, which shows Labor leading 48 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred. This compares with 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

207 comments on “ACNielsen: 59-41 to Labor in Victoria”

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  6. Glen, hard to govern… I see and hope some trade offs occurring regarding poker machines with Nick Zenophen. Mr Zenophen seems to be a bit of a lefty so i do not quite get his hard to govern bit? What Glen will the Liberals role be in the next three years?
    Doing an Alexander Downer and out to lunch?

  7. 103 Glen.
    I do believe it is your little friends who are carrying paper dolls into the chamber and carrying on like a bunch of kinder-kiddies (all at our expense) about the whole idea. Have you begun to see the light?

  8. The Greens really only have a chance of winning lower house seats in the inner city of Melbourne if and only if the Liberal vote remains extremely low. To get Liberal preferrences they need to be in front of the Liberals when it comes to the final candidate to get knocked out.
    Although this poll suggest the Liberals are going backwards statewide, in the inner city things might be a little different. If traditional Labour voters start getting moved out by out the area by rising house prices, who is going to replace them? The young people who tend to vote Green or the older people with loads of money who tend to vote Liberal?
    And if the Liberals do get in front of the Greens, Green voters are not going to preference them over the ALP no matter what the party tells them.

    And the work in the bay is not going to be an issue if nothing happens to the bay in the long term (95% the most likely). It is not like the bay water does not get extremely cloudy and dirty after a heavy rain washes 2 million dog’s doings into it.

  9. No, my point is we live in a two-party state with the system designed to prevent real political competition … which is ironic given that both branches of the Party (Labor branch and Liberal branch) have “strong” policies to support free markets, contestability and transparency etc etc ………
    It is evidenced by the debate on here which is endless point scoring about Lib/Lab posturing .. nothing about Australia … )

    I know i am naive…

  11. You can log on to the Queensland Parliament tomorrow at 10.30am Glen and question time will be on. Watching Springborg getting flogged is always fun. Especially now he has a failed Liberal from the last Federal Election as his Seniorpolicy advisor.

  12. Two party democracies do tend to be more stable.
    And it seems to be fairly natural for a democracy to end up with two major parties. You have a government and you have a group that opposes it. Sometimes they swap positions.

  13. 108-
    you’re completely right that if the dredging has no impact then no one will care. But I rather think the point to the objections (cross party) is that it will have an impact. And then it will affect people’s vote. And we (Greens ) will benefit. But all too late to stop the damage, which is why it is happening now no doubt and not in 2010.

  14. Hahahaha

    A new scientific theory .. two parties are “natural”!!!!!

    and the same old defence of the two-party state which happens to be the same defence used by the one-party state that is “more natural” …. and stable!!!! If so, B S Fairman, I assume you support a one-party state as better, as it is more “stable” (whatever that means)?

  15. Jen,

    I promise that Labor will have something as reprehensible as the future development Victoria on the agenda at the next election.

  16. 107
    jen – i hardly see the point of Parliament sitting if their is not a enough members required for a division and if most if not all the Ministers of the Crown and the PM is not attending. It’s just a waste of money IMHO. Just remember if he has another RDO (Rudd Day Off) then they’ll (Coalition) will continue to make a mockery of the sitting of Parliament on a Friday and Kev will return because look at how well Kev’s good news story went last thursday got trumped by Don Randal’s cut out of Kev.

    marky – probably waiting for a recession.

    Dingo its better than in Germany, look at the recent Hamburg election the CDU got 42% the SPD 34% the Greens 10% and Left Party 6%, now that means the CDU may have to form an unstable coalition with the Greens….the last thing you want is minor parties dictating major policy directions like the Greens.

  17. Must agree the dredging will not be issue. Finished eary 2010. Election six months later and it will be forgotten.
    Will only be an issue if a big boat sinks in the bay and as a result dredging caused it.
    Unfortunately Jen Dredging will mean little.
    What may be an issue is the tunnel project which will occur under the northern inner city, but only in the inner suburbs.
    The economy will no doubt decide the next election, and i think it could cause an upset if it is going bad. The Greens will only ever get traction if climate change has a massive impact or oil runs out… Sorry Jen the Greens only area of influence will be in the upper house and this may waver due to the high quota.
    We need a proportional system in the lower house, this would make help the Greens to get some seats but the major parties will not have a bar of it.

  18. Given that shipping is so much more efficent than any other form of transport (Road, Rail, Aircraft) and therefore produces less greenhouse gases, I am amazed that any Green who has a big view of the overall approach to climate change would object to the bay dredging. It is like objecting to Wind farms.

  19. 113 Get up to Brisbane and fight for the Greens in Toowong in the Brisbane City Council elections on March 15 if that’s where your heart is, Jen. The problem for the Greens in Queensland is they have never won and there is some doubt if they know how to win, but there is a 30/30/30 split in the polling there at present and one to watch on March 15 according to Mark Banisch at LP today.

  21. I think Dingo that you may be a little naive about how political parties win elections. They all gravitate to the centre to snare 50% + 1 votes. Hence the reason Labor supports private health insurance rebates and the Libs dump work choices. Moreso the parties use various polling techniques to get a feel to what appeals to the majority of voters. You will find that the majority of voters are not closet revolutionaries, that they value stability and transparency in the political system.

  22. Glen

    You hardly ever amaze me anymore .. in that your reactions and comments are so boringly party predicable I wonder if you are a Party computer response .. are you a LibBot??

    It is always the same .. the major parties always say that the minor parties are “dictating major policy directions”. Think about that mate. What does it say about the following:

    1. The strength of the “major” party?

    2. democracy and the choice of the electorate? (i know those are dirty words to Liberal and Labor bots like you)

  23. Dredging is not about shipping, it is about the ecology of the bay and the organisms living within the bay and the toxic dredging of material at the Yarras’ mouth and finally the economics of the project that being that the costs and benefits of this project nearly equal one another. What kind of clown decided this project when little economic gain is apparent. Is this the kind of vision we what for Victoria?

  24. Dingo i never said that i said that i didnt want extremist minor parties dictating major policy. Ah correct me if im wrong but 47% of people backed (preferred) the Tories at the 2008 and what less than 10% back the Greens so how should the desires of 10% of people overrule the desires of 47% of people?

  25. No Zedder, I am not naive, The reason you say that is because of our inequitable voting system whcich makes all votes drift back to the Lib?Lab Party. This essentially disenfanchises everyone who does not support the Lib/Lab Party. I am 57 years old and have never had a government that reflects my views ….

  26. Glen: Step one for the Liberals to actually get anywhere is face up to reality instead of carrying on with a lot of crap.

    1) Channel deepening. Supported by the average person who votes liberal for economic reasons. Having watched this site for some time I am sure there are heaps of Green voters here that do not, but are they going to vote Liberal, I don’t think so.

    2) Pipeline.
    a) It happens to be the right thing to do. You have to maintain the cities ( and I live on a farm).
    b) Bet you any money most seats are in the city.

    3) Brackes is gone, get over it. Brumby is leader now. The labor party has succession planing the Liberal do not. Very poor business planning by any standard.

    4)Chartered flight; the one that comes to mind is the one that was late for a debate with Jillian Gillard.

    5) Brumby has some brains.

  27. Dingo – I am suggesting that the two party systems occur because of the theory that “you are with us or against us”. All the major democracies all seem to end up with two major parties. That is a fact. And there has to be a reason why it occurs (without suggesting crazy conscipracies).

    One party states are extremely unstable because they breed corruption and there is no other clear choice. Hence if the ruling party falls, like when the soviet Union fell apart, there was a period of instablity.

    Dominant Party states (South Africa, East Timor or even NSW) also are not as good at keeping corruption under control as two party states because the oppostion is too weak to do anything.

  28. I’d just like to see Ted just say what are some basic/core Liberal policies because all the 3 second soundbite stuff is just negative, negative, negative and we’ll never get any traction with that. Unless the Libs define some core policies well before an election they’ll stay where they are in State politics lost in the woods.

  29. Jan what happens if the deepening has a positive impact? The increased rate of water circulation just might clean the bay up a bit.

    If I had to put money on it however, total impact; zip nadda nothing. Well a slight increase in the bay tides, from not much to not much. And once again the greens will have wasted a lot of political capital on nothing while real issues are ignored.

  30. Dingo,

    Welcome to the debate.

    Did you know that over 85% of voters at the most recent Federal election gave their first preference to either the Coalition or Labor. That is 6 out of 7 people.

    Now, I know this reperesents the tyranny of the unintelligent majority. But, can you describe how you have been particularly disadvantaged by this phenomenon and whether the rest of us should give a flying whatso.

    Maybe, being a pain has its downside.

  31. Opps – Forgot that East Timor changed last year. You could replace that with Italy for a great period of the post-war period.

  32. apres-
    consider it washed.
    But really, can’t you see some similarities apart from the hair?
    For a start, there’s the “let’s throw lots of money at the Grand Prix even though it loses us millions of dollars a year but we get to be on tellie overseas” scenario.
    And then there’s the “we can’t tell you because of commercial confidentiality” story.
    And then there’s the “Let’s build roads despite the environmental and economic costs becaues public transport is for the poor people and they don’t vote much”
    argument.
    And my favourite – “let’s spend zillions on useless ticketing machines, and then zillions more on enforcing their use, rather than putting conductors on public transport because we don’t want the unions involved, even though the whole systenm is a complete joke”.
    As for dredging ther bay… now rthere’s a cunning plan. Until the next lot of ships are even bigger and then, um,…
    I almost miss Jeff. Except he appears to be still around.

  33. Glen

    You cannot debate … “extremist” minor parties .. I assume you mean anything other than the Lib/Lab party??

    “Dictating” .. I assume you mean negotiating outcomes? I know that is alien to your thinking….

    You think everything is in terms of “overruling” .. what is wrong with concensus or accommodating?

    I think our country should embrace all views not a winners/losers view as I know the Lib?Lab Party advocates….

    I know I am out of step …

  35. I’d far more be able to reason with someone from Labor as i most of my friends vote ALP than somebody who votes Greens. Sure the Greens have their place but to say that a small fraction of society should have say the balance of power in deciding whether bills become law is a bad idea. Look it might be unfair to the very small percentage of society but more than 85% voted either Tory or ALP thus their views count far more than yours.

  36. GG i think our country would be served if that one out of seven were also represented in Parliament.. even if, in your eyes, they are wrong

  37. 118 B.S. Fairman
    ‘…a bit like opposing Windfarms”.
    Until very recently – and I have asked, in an earlier thread, for someone to confirm whether this is still the case – the Greens did not have ANY policy on windfarms.
    I am told this is because it is impossible for them to reconcile the NIMBY members of their party (the ones who like the countryside to look pretty and who drive 4WDs so they can go out and look at it in the way nature intended) and those who want clean green energy, so they’ve simply wimped on it.
    I also find the Greens opposition to the north south pipeline a bit perplexing, given that a proportion of the projected water savings is to go to the environment (whether there will be water savings is a different argument).
    Again, I think this may be because of the NIMBY factor.

  38. [You could replace that with Italy for a great period of the post-war period.]

    As a Second Generaton Italo-Austrralian (was born here), even I’m amazed at their system of government where expats can nominate for the senate and even win.

    And the fact that Prodi lost his majority and there will be an election in April, where there is every chance that Silvio Berlusconi may again triumph.

  41. Can someone explain this for me :

    The Australian Business Council blames the Howard Government for not spending money on infrastructure in affect wasting it (which it did) but than tells Labor to not spend any money for three years. What are these dills on about?

  42. ZOOM!!!!!
    read the bloody policy (don’t know how to do the link thingy) on sustainability and renewable energy.
    It clearly states support for:
    solar, geothermal, and WIND!!!!

  43. I know how hard that must be for you Jen but there you have it.
    Anyway i know i have about 1/6 of the bloggers on pollbludger on my side anyway so i know what its like to be a minority.

    Jen as we’ve become aware our opposing views make it impossible to come to a reasonable standpoint. I may disagree with the ALP but they are more in line with my views than the Greens.

    Im surprised the Greens didnt put alot more money into holding Cunningham in 2004. But hey they only won that seat as the Tories didnt field a candidate.

  44. Dingo,

    But they are represented.

    Look at Sophie Mirrabella and Wilson Tuckey out of step with the majority over the apology.

    Look at FF representing 1.4% of the population.

    Please describe an acceptable representation model for you that would involve you getting off your backside and doing something rather than bitching.

  45. Glen

    I find your unflectiveness extra-ordinary … if greens had balance or power is only because of the support of the Libs? What are you talking about? If you thought it was serious you would support the Labs!

    Glen. Why the crocodile tears????

  46. Business Council welcomes a call on freezing for parliamentary salaries but not on executive salaries, which have exploded in recent years… The hypocrisy of the BCA at work.

  47. But Glen what are the Liberal parties core values? That I think is the core problem.

    Menzies was a liberal, Fraser was a liberal, Kennett was a liberal, Howard was not.

    Remember the phone call several years ago when Kennett and Peacock where complaining about Howard destroying the Liberal party, they got it right, and the reason they got it right is that we now have a party that doesn’t know what its core values are because it lost it’s way about 10 years ago.

    Now it is a party full of rat bags why believe politics is about being nasty to liberals and behaving like little children.

    That Glen is the problem. Ted is a reasonable person with a dysfunctional party behind him. And if you don’t believe just read the comments left on the Australian blog when Frazer came out and stated the bleeding obvious.

  48. Jen
    I have been a good person and gone to the Greens website.
    Couldn’t find anything in the Climate Change policy referrring to windfarms.
    Typed ‘windfarms’ into the site search engine and got nothing.
    Typed ‘wind’ into the site search engine and got 3 referrals, each to media releases, none expressing Greens support for windfarms.
    Absolutely positively prepared to retract – and said that I thought the policy situation had been remedied – but can’t find any basis on which to do so.

  50. What does the Labor Party believe in Charles?
    Yes tend to agree that Ballieau is a coconut without a tree but to me the polls will get closer as the election nears. Brumby to me is not all that well liked, the same for Ted but as the economy weakens which it will Ted may suddenly find himself Priemer. People rarely look at what parties stand for other than in the case Howard who was the most conservative PM we have ever.

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