The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.
Other news:
• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.
• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.
i should go first here as I broke the news!!
can anyone tell me if this is a record result
I can, Andrew. In fact, I already have.
Nelson’s honeymoon is over.
Don’t know if any of you caught Keating’s letter in The Australian today but it was the biggest load of hypocritical tripe that I’ve had the displeasure of reading.
Just like the old saying goes, “records are made to be broken”.
I wonder though, just how high can they go, or in the case of the Libs, how low can they go.
They (the Libs) are certainly trying hard enough.
bloody hell
wipeout
Rudd is approaching omniscience. I reckon he could walk on water at the moment.
Kina says:
“Nelson’s honeymoon is over”
When will the divorce proceedings begin?
*Trying to change the subject GP? Good luck with that.
64.5 up 12% from Election result anyone for a DD or a few by-elections!
Not trying to change the subject. Such wildly favourable polls for the government are to be expected within the first year or so of a victorious election.
GP, yes but that bad
4 Generic Person – I read it and thought that no conservative supporter is going to like this and, GP, surprise, surprise you hate it. That must mean he wiped the floor with her and he did.
No. 10
What’s your point Mexican Beemer? I don’t why there is such a fuss about these polls. They are only instructive when an election is nearing.
Keating’s letter in the Neocon Manifesto is the best thing I have read all year. In just a few words, he has undone JA to her bare bones. With supporters like JA there is no wonder that LNP has a primary vote of 31.5%. Keep it up Janet and we will end up with one party rule!
9 Generic Person – True but these are record numbers, even bettering Howard in 1996, I’m suspecting by a long way too.
William, was the previous record 64 and when was it achieved??
No. 11
It’s not about the left vs right debate, it’s the simple fact that here is a man chastising Ms Albrechtsen for her “tawdry name-calling” and yet in the next line labels her a “loony tune” and a “no-talent proselytiser”.
Even I can laugh uncontrollably at some of Keating’s acerbic commentary, but his latest escapade is demonstrative of a politician from a bygone era grasping for relevance.
So happy was Australia, when it gave Mr Keating the pink slip he so well deserved.
I think after the polling last year, we can safely say that these polls are not even instructive when an election is nearing… so let’s enjoy each one for it’s unique charms and lovable eccentricities.
Gotta love 35.5% two-party preferred, though…
GP, if you could please produce a similar poll three months post Howard’s win in 1996, I’ll stop gloating
No. 14
Record or not, they are not particularly instructive given that the government is still very new and hasn’t had to make polarising and tough decisions.
Also, Howard was much older than Rudd when he was elected in 1996 and also less charismatic. Not that Rudd is a bastion of charisma.
16 Generic Person – Oh, I see. So his hypocritical name calling negates all his other valid points does it? The fact that you can’t stand him and he was a Labor PM has absolutely nothing to do with your final remark? Pull the other one GP.
Andos, a major difference now is that it is the GOVERNMENT that is up by so much. When the opposition has a big lead the general consensus is that the government can claw back ground due to the benefits of incumbency
GP, with all due respect, all I want to hear from you is your Howard poll figures
A good example of how to destroy your own argument in one sentence. “Also, Howard was much older than Rudd when he was elected in 1996 and also less charismatic. NOT that Rudd is a bastion of charisma.”
Wouldnt it be great though if a conservative blogger just said “look, this poll is diabolical, this is what I think the Coalition need to do etc etc”
No. 20
I don’t agree with Mr Keating, but respect his right an opinion. However, if he is going to challenge someone for having non-reasoned arguments, then it is slightly absurd to imbue his response with such unbridled hypocrisy.
I also find it difficult to stomach his assertion that we should all be beacons of cosmopolitan tolerance whilst he is simultaneously demanding that the Australian suppress difference of opinion.
Hello all
It’s been a month or so. Where’s Stephen Kaye? I miss him.
Hey there folks!
This is a positive happy happy joy joy thread, don’t let the troll take the gloss off!
Everybody dance now! I am!
24 Andrew – what you are witnessing is the same blind loyalty that cost the Libs the election. The Libs stuck with their disastrous IR policy knowing it was as popular as a shark in a swimming pool (cleaned that one up).
GP @ 19 – can you define a “polarising” and “tough” decision for us?
Polarising – within Cabinet? Within the Labor caucus? Within Parliament between the parties? Between sections of the community at large?
Tough – tough as in a decision they had to think long and hard about, could negatively affect people, and/or might cause some political fallout?
I would’ve thought the apology would count as at least a somewhat polarising decision, though I don’t think it was that tough for them to make. Maybe if you put up some examples of what you were talking about, it’d help. Cheers.
No. 24
Andrew, the Liberals have reversed their support for Workchoices, they’ve supported the Apology and so forth. Indeed, the party’s policy platform has changed considerably from the Howard era.
These wildly favourable polls for the government are simply a product of honeymoons. You’d be naive in the extreme to think these numbers could last indefinitely.
No. 28
My definition is largely as you already described.
The fact is, in opposition it is possible to be all things to all people. In government that isn’t the case.
Notice the toned down rhetoric on health, on petrol prices, on grocery prices and so forth.
I’m not saying that Rudd isn’t popular, I’m merely saying that the realities of government will soon change the poll results. Rudd isn’t immune from this. It’s happened to every government prior to him.
GP (25) – “However, if he is going to challenge someone for having non-reasoned arguments, then it is slightly absurd to imbue his response with such unbridled hypocrisy.” This still doesn’t mean he was wrong about her.
“…whilst he is simultaneously demanding that the Australian suppress difference of opinion.” Gross generalisation. He wasn’t suggesting that at all. He suggested SHE move on. Big difference.
Pride and fall lads. remember the connection. Still, it’s all right to crack a wee smile, I suppose…
GP again please produce the Howard poll numbers, and whilst you are at it please indicate where anybody said these poll numbers could last indefinately
No. 4 – you mean you’ve stopped reading your own posts?:)
I’m waiting for Glen to come on an d utter his immortal phrase “Bullbutter” 🙂
No. 31
I quote from the article Gary, if you don’t believe me:
That’s not him suggesting she move on, it’s him suggesting that the paper give her the flick.
No 19.
Yes because dismantling Howard’s flawed policies in relation to Iraq, Aboriginal reconciliation, Workchoices is no longer polarising nor tough given the Liberals can barely scrape a 36.5% 2PP and have their entire ex-front bench moving to greener pastures.
What’s the objection to that, GP? Keating’s only problem in this article was that he didn’t elaborate on Albrechtsen’s status as an uber-elite.
Basically the Oz bet heavily on the Howard era going on forever and loss. Now it has a paper full of cranks who either have tried desparately to appear as if they are behind the Rudd agenda or have gripped onto the old status quo (kind of like the coalition backbench)
Albrechtsen was a cheerleader for the Howard agenda. He’s gone. So she now has no useful purpose. Keating’s call is on the money.
No. 38
I’ve already stated my objection, Dinsdale.
No. 29
[‘These wildly favourable polls for the government are simply a product of honeymoons. You’d be naive in the extreme to think these numbers could last indefinitely.’]
Yes Rudd had an extremely long honeymoon period as opposition leader.
Given the depth of denial of the hard core right wingers, lets see how long this record breaking honeymoon period can continue.
Watch the rabid right wing commentators finally get what they deserve. Ridicule and the sack.
36 Generic Person – Yeah. So? It still not what you were suggesting ie “…whilst he is simultaneously demanding that the Australian suppress difference of opinion.” He says that the Australian should get rid of HER. Still a big difference.
Oh Gary, you’re too funny.
He’s demanding her sacking because he can’t stand her opposite opinion. Just accept it.
Understandable, given his support for despotic dictators like Soeharto.
Are you saying Janet is the only anti Labor, anti Keating commentator in the Australian? It sounds like it. That is what your comment suggests.
I predicted Howard’s selfishness would lead to the political oblivion of the Liberal party.
Now as we watch the rats leaving the sinking ship, the Liberals only have one real opportunity for survival. Remake the entire Liberal party back into what it was in Menzies time, trash the Howard legacy and leave the remnants of it in the dustbin of history.
The Liberals only ‘mythological’ strength was economic management. With a new government in power, this myth has been comprehensively dispelled. No wonder they are in such deep trouble.
Out of all the current leaders, I believe only Malcolm Turnbull has the ability to start the long-term process of reviving the Liberals. The longer Brendan Nelson stays, the worse it will get.
This will be a demoralising poll for the Opposition, on top of everything else working against them at the moment.
I can see Brendan Nelson happy (or at least relieved) to pass on the poisoned chalice .. but why would anyone want to take it.
Another big problem for the Liberals, is that their main support base is in the over 65’s. They lost the youth and middle aged vote under Howard. Over the long run, this will be devastating to the Liberals.
“He’s demanding her sacking because he can’t stand her opposite opinion. Just accept it.” Keating copped a lot from her over the years and said nothing. He’s not suggesting every anti Labor / anti Keating commentator at The Australian be sacked, which is what your argument is suggesting. You are wrong accept it.
It amazes me that Generic Person still gets so many bites on his well baited hooks. Seriously, everyone here knows how GP argues, and the fact that there is no possible way to change their opinion. Why do you all still bite instead of doing the only sensible thing, and ignore them?
I guess it is fun to watch Generic Person simultaneously take on a whole message board at once…